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Global stocks are heading towards their worst week since April with tech stocks under pressure. Despite Nvidia delivering yet another strong result and an upbeat revenue forecast, investor concerns regarding an AI bubble remain. The fears are not baseless. Investment growth in the US largely rests upon AI-related and high-tech investments, and at the same time, there is still a great level of uncertainty regarding AI-driven productivity gains. In addition, the market is increasingly concentrated. Nvidia's valuation alone exceeds the entire equity markets of most countries, and the rising number of interrelated deals in the tech sector has further fuelled investor concerns recently.

Understandably then, investors are looking for a hedge against AI risk. This has led to a rapidly rising demand for credit default swaps for companies like Oracle Corp, the software company that has borrowed massively to finance the AI-related spending spree. The company's 5-year CDS price has tripled since summer. Such price moves can hardly be explained by investors actually expecting Oracle, an investment-graded company, to default. Instead, investors probably anticipate the CDS price to rise further, should the AI concerns escalate.

This week, we also started receiving the US data delayed because of the government shutdown. The long-awaited September Jobs Report was released with mixed signals, as nonfarm payrolls growth recovered to +119k but the unemployment rate still rose to 4.4%. The uptick was driven by an increase in native-born labour supply rather than weak demand. As we do not expect labour supply to continue growing, we also do not see this as a dovish signal for Fed. Fed minutes, released earlier in the week, appeared slightly hawkish on the margin with "many participants" suggesting that rates could be kept unchanged in December. Hence, we still like our call for the next rate cut in January. Read more on US Labour Market Monitor - Calm before the storm?, 20 November.

In FX market, dollar was king this week. In the near term, risks remain tilted toward USD strength, but we continue to see EUR/USD at 1.22 in 12 months. Read more on FX forecast update - USD to weather AI valuation woes, 18 November. Japanese authorities are concerned about weak yen on the back of the expected fiscal easing, and on Friday, the authorities again flagged the possibility of FX intervention.

The US and Russian authorities have drafted a new peace plan for Ukraine, and Ukraine's President Zelensky has received the proposal. The new 28-point plan outlines that Ukraine would have to concede the whole of the Donbas region and cut down the number of reservists. Ukraine would not be allowed in NATO, but doors to the EU would be kept open. Although the 28-point plan clearly favours Russia, there is a separate document regarding security guarantees and those seem strong, NATO-like (see e.g. Axios reporting). Zelensky has been given time until next week Thursday to accept the deal.

The euro area preliminary PMI for November came in close to expectations with the composite index falling marginally to 52.4 from 52.5. On Monday, we will see how the German Ifo index aligns with the German PMI softening. Otherwise, next week is rather quiet in terms of data but watch out for US September retail sales and PPI due on Tuesday.

Full report in PDF. 

Markets

The November PMIs stood in the shadow of a much more important market driver today: risk sentiment. Stocks continued to slide with European equities catching up with the US yesterday where strong Nvidia results did little to address growing market concerns about elevated AI-valuations. The EuroStoxx50 at some point shed 1.4%, piercing through three key levels that created a strong support zone between the 5568.19 pre Liberation Day peak, the 5522.42 Dot Com high in 2000 and the 5516.5 23.6% retracement on the April-Nov rally. Enter Fed Williams. NY Fed boss said he still sees room for another rate cut “in the near term”. As a confidant to chair Powell and following a string of more hawkish signals from other policymakers (including today), Williams’ comments drew attention and lifted sentiment somewhat. The turnaround lacks conviction but for now it’s enough for the Stoxx50 cut losses to 0.8%. Wall Street opens with minor gains. Investors similarly kept puking out crypto before Williams lured dip buyers from the sidelines. BTC came to close to the 80k mark before recovering to 84k currently. Core bonds attract safe haven flows. US yields decline 1.7-3.1 bps, led by the front end – which is now pricing a 70% December Fed cut probability. German rates ease 2.2-3.1 bps across the curve. UK gilts actually outperform core peers with the long end of the curve erasing an earlier rise this week (-5.5 bps). This tentative calm risks being upended short-term by the upcoming Autumn Budget due November 26 though. The stakes are incredibly high for both gilts and the pound. The latter trades a tad stronger on the day around but above EUR/GBP 0.88, ignoring weak retail sales and a sub-par November PMI. The services sector (53.1) in the European edition kept powering economic activity, with a pullback in Germany counterbalanced by a French catch-up move and the rest of the EU. The manufacturing sector (49.7) remains mired around the 50 neutral level. Rising new orders in services offset a renewed fall in manufacturing. Employment stagnated. Input costs rose sharply and across sectors but didn’t feed through one on one in selling prices. Their rise slowed to the weakest in just over a year. Business confidence for the year ahead ticked higher and was above the running 2025 average. The PMIs mattered not for EUR/USD though, which instead had more attention for the risk off and a drop in Q3 negotiated wage growth to sub 2% for the first time since 2021Q1. The pair is struggling north of the 1.15 big figure.

News & Views

The Hungarian 10-y swap yield suddenly rose 6 bps (to 6.83%) and the forint weakened from the EUR/HUF 382.4 area to EUR/HUF 385.5. The Hungarian currency later recovered a bit to currently near EUR/HUF 384. The move might at least partially be due to an overall negative risk sentiment. However domestic headlines also might have been in play. Deputy governor Barnabas Virag, responsible for research, money circulation and central bank programs quit the monetary policy committee early. The MNB indicates that the Hungarian Parliament will hear Peter Banai as a nominee to take over the role of Virag. Virag in the future will still serve as an adviser to MNB governor Varga. The move as seen as driven by political considerations as it allows the current government to fill the function for the next six year mandate, ahead of parliamentary elections that are expected to rake place in April next year. Even as the move isn’t expected to change the MNB monetary policy stance anytime soon, markets apparently might feel discomfort with political uncertainty/unexpected decisions for current government in the run-up to the elections.

The UK PMI indicates a softer expansion of private business activity during November. The composite index decreased from 52.2 to 50.5. Services slowed from 52.3 to 50.5. Output in manufacturing equally eased from 51.6 to 50.6. New services orders declined for the first time since July amid heightened client caution ahead of the November Budget. Manufacturing registered a first increase in total new orders in over a year. Average output prices rose at their slowest rate in nearly five years but input price pressures accelerated, putting margins under pressure. In a context of tight margins and heightened policy uncertainty, firms reduced their headcounts more aggressively than in October. Business activity expectations also moderated from October's 12-month peak. The PMI suggests no growth this month and corresponds with a meagre 0.1% Q4 quarterly pace. S&P assesses that “The PMI data therefore suggest the policy debate will shift further away from inflation worries toward the need to support the struggling economy, hence adding to the chances of interest rates being cut in December”, a view we endorse.

US business activity held firm in November, with the PMI Composite edging up from 54.6 to 54.8. The manufacturing index slipped from 52.5 to 51.9, while services climbed from 54.8 to 55.0. According to S&P Global’s Chris Williamson, the readings point to a “relatively buoyant” economy tracking around 2.5% annualized GDP growth so far in Q4, with the upturn "encouragingly broad-based".

Business confidence has also improved meaningfully, helped by expectations of further Fed rate cuts and relief following the reopening of the federal government. Williamson noted that optimism for the year ahead has strengthened as uncertainty surrounding policy and political risks recedes. Hiring continued in November, though firms remained cautious as tariffs and higher operating costs restrained labor demand.

Still, the PMI report highlighted pockets of concern. Manufacturers saw slower new orders growth while reporting a record rise in finished goods inventories. Price pressures also re-accelerated: both input costs and selling prices rose at faster rates, keeping the inflation debate alive within the Fed.

Full US PMI flash release here.

After rebounding well through the past week, what was initially thought to be a broader trading range is actively contracting into a tight consolidation pattern.

Currently stuck between 1.15 and 1.17 (+/- 150 pips), the most popular FX pair hasn't been able to find a concrete direction since reaching its peak back in July.

The US Dollar made its point again earlier, fueled by the Fed's hawkish repricing as fears of a December "non-cut" created sudden demand for the Greenback, leading to a series of lower price action in the pair.

December Cut pricing, November 21, 2025 – Source: FedWatchTool

However, Fed member communication continues to heavily influence flows. Comments from NY Fed President John Williams—a very influential voice—have put the December cut back firmly on the table, bringing pricing right back around 70% from 20% just yesterday morning.

As cuts are typically negative for a currency, this shift has applied fresh pressure on the Dollar, potentially boosting the pair as it tests its range lows.

Meanwhile, Christine Lagarde mentioned in a recent speech that Europe is "increasingly vulnerable to shocks," noting that the AI boom has further amplified the volatility seen in EU stocks throughout 2025. In the context of EUR/USD, both economies remain highly vulnerable to such market developments.

Let's dive in EUR/USD multi-timeframe analysis.

EUR/USD Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis

Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Oscillating between the 1.1470 Pivot Support zone and the 1.1650 Pivot Zone, the pair provides strong support and resistance levels to base analysis on.

2025 has been a trending year, but rangebound action takes place around 70% of the time in Markets and particularly in FX.

Hence, spotting ranges like these early can provide opportunities.

With the RSI also flattening, playing mean-reversion has high probabilities of functioning.

However, spot trends in the US Dollar: Strong numbers before the December 10 meeting can add further USD strength and break the 1.1470 Support. Let's take a closer look.

4H Chart and Technical Levels

EUR/USD 4H Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView

EUR/USD responds well to overbought and oversold RSI levels, a good indicator of rangebound action.

Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:

Resistance Levels

• 1.1630 to 1.1670 Pivot zone (range Highs)
• 1.1750 mini-resistance
• Resistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)
• Sep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 Zone
• Weekly highs 1.1656

Support Levels

• 1.1470 to 1.15 range support
• 4H MA 200 Mini-support 1.16190
• 1.1475 to 1.15 Support Zone
• 1.1350 to 1.14 Support
• Session lows 1.14966

1H Chart

EUR/USD 1H Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Adding to the up-and-down price action, the key moving averages, particularly the longer 200-H MA is starting to flatten, indicating a non-trending environment.

Still, Traders will have to closely monitor the past week lows (1.1470) and highs (1.1656) to check for potential breakouts:

A daily close above or below such levels would be indicative of a potential breakout
Data can also have an influence on such trading ranges, therefore it is very important to keep track of releases.

Safe Trades!

Retail sales declined 0.7% month-on-month (m/m) in September, matching Statistics Canada's advanced estimate.

After adjusting for inflation, the volume of retail sales dropped 0.8% m/m.

Auto sales were the key swing factor in September, falling 2.9% m/m.

Receipts at gas stations and fuel vendors rose for the first time in three months, up 1.9% m/m, though this was driven by higher gasoline prices -  volumes were down 1.0% m/m.

Core sales – excluding auto sales and receipts at gas stations – were flat on the month. Softness was concentrated in building material & garden equipment dealers (-2.0% m/m) and general merchandise retailers (-0.5% m/m), which pulled sales lower. Gains at food and beverage stores (+0.8% m/m) and miscellaneous store retailers (+1.8% m/m) offset the weakness.

E-commerce sales declined by 3.5% m/m in September, but August was revised up to +0.6% from -0.1% m/m.

Statistics Canada's advanced estimate points to a flat reading in October.

Key Implications

Retail sales are heading into the holiday season on shaky footing. September recorded a renewed decline, and early signals point to a flat reading in October. Despite recent volatility, the underlying trend is weaker real spending with major categories now in outright contraction. Some good news comes from our internal credit and debit card data, which continues to point to relatively healthy gains in services spending, especially travel and recreation.

We expect real personal spending growth to drift to a below-trend pace in the second half of 2025, with Q3 consumption tracking in a flat to 0.5% range. At this stage, the Bank of Canada has largely priced in this softer demand profile, giving policymakers sufficient justification to remain on hold.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.93; (P) 157.41; (R1) 157.94; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and some consolidations could be seen. Downside of retreat should be contained above 154.47 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above 157.88 temporary top will resume larger rise to 161.8% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 160.17.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 restiveness turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8047; (P) 0.8062; (R1) 0.8076; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. Overall, corrective pattern from 0.7828 is still extending. Above 0.8076 will target 0.8123 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.7984 support will bring deeper fall back to 0.7877 support.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3033; (P) 1.3078; (R1) 1.3119; More...

No change in GBP/USD's outlook and intraday bias remains neutral. With 1.3247 support turned resistance intact, further decline is expected. On the downside, firm break of 1.3008 will resume the fall from 1.3787, and target 138.2% projection of 1.3787 to 1.3140 from 1.3725 at 1.2831. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.3247 will suggest that fall from 1.3787 has completed as a corrective move already.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3182) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2824) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1504; (P) 1.1527; (R1) 1.1551; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside for 1.1467 first. Firm break there will target 1.1390, and then 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. On the upside, above 1.1551 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1655 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1328) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

New York Fed President John Williams delivered the day’s biggest surprise, signaling that he sees scope for another rate cut in the near term. As head of the New York Fed — a permanent FOMC voter and a traditional bellwether for committee consensus — his comments dramatically shifted the policy conversation. Only yesterday markets were digesting a message of caution from the October FOMC minutes; today, traders are again contemplating the possibility of an imminent easing step.

Pricing in the futures market flipped almost instantly. Expectations for a December rate cut surged from 35% to about 70%, marking one of the most abrupt single-session repricings in weeks. The rapid repricing underscored not only the influence of Williams’s stance but also the market’s latent readiness to pivot back toward an easing narrative after a week of mixed signals from policymakers.

The shift in expectations also helped snap Wall Street out of its AI-driven selloff. U.S. equity futures jumped meaningfully, pointing to a strong rebound at the open. Still, whether the optimism can carry through the rest of the day is unclear. Investors may be more inclined to treat Williams’s comments as a tactical boost rather than a structural re-anchoring of the outlook.

Currency markets, however, displayed a more tempered reaction. Dollar slipped briefly after the headlines but quickly recovered. The greenback remains firmly the best performer of the week. Loonie and Sterling are currently the next strongest.

Swiss Franc has now fallen to the bottom of the performance board as the Yen — which had been hammered for days — finally showed signs of stabilization and clawed its way off the floor. Still, the fact that Aussie holds the third-weakest position signals that risk undertones remain soft, even as stock futures point higher. Kiwi and Euro continue to hover mid-table.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FSTE is down -0.09%. DAX is down -0.47%. CAC is down -0.08%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.042 at 4.547. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.026 at 2.698. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -2.40%. Hong Kong HSI fell -2.38%. China Shanghai SSE fell -2.45%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.95%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.033 to 1.788.

Fed's Williams sees room for another rate cut in the near term

New York Fed President John Williams maintained a cautiously dovish tone today, saying he continues to view U.S. monetary policy as “modestly restrictive.” With that in mind, he sees room for “a further adjustment in the near term” to bring the federal funds rate closer to neutral.

Williams reiterated his confidence that inflation will moderate as tariff effects filter through the economy without generating lasting price pressures. At the same time, he emphasized that the labor market appears to be cooling in a controlled manner.

The unemployment rate reached 4.4% in September, a level he noted was comparable to pre-pandemic norms—when the job market was healthy but “not overheated.”

Canada's retail sales fall -0.7% mom in September, flat in October

Canada’s retail sector weakened in September, with headline sales falling -0.7% mom to CAD 69.8B, in line with expectations. The decline was broad-based, with six of nine subsectors posting decreases, led primarily by motor vehicle and parts dealers. When excluding autos and gasoline, core retail sales were essentially flat. In volume terms, retail sales slid 0.8% mom, marking a clear step down in real consumption.

On a quarterly basis, nominal retail sales eked out a 0.2% gain in Q3, but volumes declined -0.3%, showing that inflation-adjusted spending continues to stagnate.

The advance estimate for October suggests no meaningful improvement, with retail sales expected to be broadly unchanged.

Eurozone PMI composite climbs to 53.1, but manufacturing still far from a turnaround

Eurozone business activity lost a little momentum in November as PMI Composite edged down from 52.5 to 52.4. Manufacturing slipped back into contraction at 49.7, down from 50.0, a five-month low. Services inched up from 53.0 to an 18-month high of 53.1.

Hamburg Commercial Bank’s Chief Economist Cyrus de la Rubia noted that manufacturing remains “marooned in a no-man’s land of directionlessness,” with soft demand showing up in yet another decline in new orders. He warned the sector is still “months, possibly even several quarters” away from a sustained turnaround, pointing to deteriorating conditions in both Germany and France. Indeed, Germany’s PMI Manufacturing fell from 49.6 to 48.4 and France dropped from 48.8 to 47.8.

By contrast, services continue to provide a much-needed buffer. Germany’s service-sector growth slowed (down from 54.6 to 62.7) but stayed comfortably positive. France returned to expansion (up from 48.0 to 50.8). With the services sector carrying far more weight in the Eurozone economy, the currency bloc is still on track for faster growth in Q4 compared with Q3.

UK PMI drops to 50.5; Sluggish growth and softer prices bolster December BoE cuts

UK flash PMIs for November delivered a broadly downbeat signal on the economic outlook. Manufacturing managed to edge back into expansion territory, rising from 49.7 to 50.2 — its highest level in 14 months. But that improvement was overshadowed by a sharp drop in services activity, with PMI Services sliding from 52.3 to 50.5, a seven-month low. As a result, Composite PMI fell notably from 52.2 to 50.5.

According to Chris Williamson of S&P Global Market Intelligence, the latest readings point to an economy that has “stalled,” with job losses accelerating and business confidence deteriorating sharply. The PMI readings are broadly consistent with zero GDP growth for November and only around 0.1% growth so far in Q4.

While part of the slowdown is being blamed on paused spending decisions ahead of the Autumn Budget, weakening confidence suggests the hesitation may “turn into a downturn” if households and firms brace for new "demand-dampening measures" .

The inflation outlook also softened meaningfully. Selling price inflation dropped to its lowest in almost five years, with goods prices falling at the fastest rate since 2016 and service-sector pricing power weakening.

Taken together, the PMI data reinforce expectations that the BoE would cut rates in December, especially if next week's Budget reinforces the pessimistic tone.

UK retail sales slump -1.1% mom in October as shoppers hold off for Black Friday

UK retail sales delivered a sharp downside shock in October, falling –1.1% mom, well below expectations of a modest 0.1% increase. It was the first monthly decline since May and reflected broad weakness across supermarkets, clothing, and online retailers.

Some retailers suggested that consumers deliberately postponed purchases in anticipation of Black Friday promotions, magnifying the pullback at a time when household budgets remain stretched by high interest rates and inflation.

Despite the poor monthly reading, retail sales in the three months to October were still up 1.1% compared with the prior three-month period.

BoJ's Ueda flags bigger FX pass-through to underlying inflation

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament today that Yen weakness is increasingly feeding into domestic inflation. He noted that as companies have become "more active in raising prices and wages,"  the pass-through from higher import costs to consumer inflation has intensified. That dynamic raises the risk that currency-driven price gains could influence inflation expectations and “underlying inflation,” he warned.

Ueda added that the central bank will assess a rate hike at upcoming meetings, with the focus firmly on data that sheds light on next year’s wage momentum. He emphasized said policymakers want to "spend a bit more time to confirm whether firms' active wage-setting behavior won't be disrupted,"

He added that the Bank is still gathering information from its nationwide branches and intends to incorporate both official data and its own surveys into the next policy discussions.

Japan CPI core accelerates again to 3% in October

Japan’s October CPI data showed inflation firming again, with core CPI (ex-fresh food) rising to 3.0% yoy from 2.9%, matching expectations and marking the second month of renewed acceleration. The measure has now stayed above the BoJ’s 2% target for more than three and a half years, highlighting how persistent the price backdrop has become.

Core-core CPI, which excludes both fresh food and energy, edged up from 3.0% to 3.1% yoy, while headline CPI rose from 2.9% to 3.0%.

Food excluding fresh items surged 7.2%, and utilities rose 2.2%, confirming that household-facing inflation pressures remain elevated. Rice inflation, however, continues to ease sharply, slipping to 40.2% from September’s 49.2% and offering slight relief after months of extreme gains.

Japan PMI composite rises to 52.0 as services lead and manufacturing stabilizes

Japan’s November flash PMIs offered a cautiously constructive signal for the economy, with the Composite Index rising from 51.5 to 52.0 — the best reading in three months and joint-highest since August 2024. Manufacturing activity remained in contraction but improved to 48.8 from 48.2. Services held steady at a solid 53.1.

S&P Global’s Annabel Fiddes noted that the decline in manufacturing output eased to its slowest pace since August, hinting at a gradual move toward stabilization. Business confidence also strengthened, reaching its highest level since January. That pickup in sentiment helped drive the strongest rise in employment since June, as firms look to expand capacity in anticipation of firmer activity ahead.

Inflation pressures remain a lingering concern. Input costs rose at the fastest rate in six months amid higher labor expenses and supplier price increases. In response, firms lifted selling prices at a solid pace to protect margins.

Australia's PMI composite rises to 52.6, firmer growth with manufacturing rebounds

Australia’s November flash PMIs delivered a surprisingly upbeat signal, with manufacturing jumping back into expansion at 51.6 after October’s soft 49.7. Services PMI also nudged higher from 52.5 to 52.7, lifting Composite Index from 52.1 to 52.6. The rebound in manufacturing is particularly encouraging given the sector’s recent weakness.

S&P Global’s Jingyi Pan noted that new orders in goods returned to expansion for the first time since August, helping lift overall momentum. Rising business optimism—now at a five-month high—also points to firmer activity ahead.

Price pressures, while slightly firmer than at the start of the quarter, remain "broadly muted". Employment growth slowed, but survey responses indicate this was driven partly by "hiring challenges" rather than a sharp loss in demand, particularly in the services sector.

NZ sees strong EU export growth, yet trade balance hit by China import surge

New Zealand’s October trade report showed exports and imports both rising solidly from a year earlier, yet leaving the country with a monthly deficit of NZD -1.5B. Goods exports climbed 16% yoy to NZD 6.5B, driven by broad-based strength across key markets. However, imports grew nearly as fast—up 11% to NZD 8.0B—as demand for overseas goods remained firm, particularly from China.

Export performance was strong across most major destinations. Shipments to China rose 18% yoy, while exports to Australia increased 14%. Notably, exports to the EU surged 40%—a standout gain that helped offset softer growth in other regions. The U.S. and Japan also saw moderate increases of 5.4% and 7.5% respectively.

On the import side, the story was more uneven. Imports from China surged 29% yoy and those from Australia rose 6.8%, pushing the total higher even as purchases from several other partners fell. The U.S. and South Korea both saw sizeable declines in imports, down -15% and -19% respectively, while the EU recorded a small drop of -2.6%.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1504; (P) 1.1527; (R1) 1.1551; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside for 1.1467 first. Firm break there will target 1.1390, and then 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. On the upside, above 1.1551 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1655 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1328) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.