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Canada’s retail sector weakened in September, with headline sales falling -0.7% mom to CAD 69.8B, in line with expectations. The decline was broad-based, with six of nine subsectors posting decreases, led primarily by motor vehicle and parts dealers. When excluding autos and gasoline, core retail sales were essentially flat. In volume terms, retail sales slid 0.8% mom, marking a clear step down in real consumption.

On a quarterly basis, nominal retail sales eked out a 0.2% gain in Q3, but volumes declined -0.3%, showing that inflation-adjusted spending continues to stagnate.

The advance estimate for October suggests no meaningful improvement, with retail sales expected to be broadly unchanged.

Full Canada's retail sales release here.

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation plummeted by more than 9% to $2.82 trillion, reaching its lowest level since the end of April. This already appears to be a real liquidation of margin positions. The following technically necessary support line seems to be the $2.4 trillion area. The market found support here in early April 2025 and consolidated around it throughout April 2024.

Bitcoin is trading below $83K, and at its lowest point fell to $81K, starting the day at $88K. The timing and scale of the dynamics suggest a wave of margin calls in the early hours of Friday, with an attempt at stabilisation during the European session. The price of Bitcoin has returned to the stabilisation levels seen from late February to mid-April. The RSI index on the daily charts has fallen to 20, where it last stood before the massive rally in August 2023. Touching this level in mid-2022 was not far from the price’s bottom (10% higher), but the reversal then took 6 months to materialise.

News Background

CryptoQuant indicates that market conditions for BTC have become the most bearish since the start of the bull cycle in January 2023. A break below the average investor entry price of $82,000 would be the first serious confirmation of a bearish trend since May 2022.

Bitcoin could fall to the $60,000-80,000 range and remain there until the end of the year if the Fed refuses to cut its key rate on 10 December, XWIN Research warns. Currently, the market estimates the probability of it remaining at its current level at 58%. On the other hand, crypto exchanges have accumulated record reserves of stablecoins worth $72 billion.

The unprecedented pace of Ethereum accumulation by institutional investors poses fundamental threats to Ethereum, said ETH co-founder Vitalik Buterin. Currently, nine Wall Street giants, including BlackRock, as well as several dozen DAT companies, have accumulated 10.4% of the total supply of the leading altcoin.

The launch of BlackRock’s staking-enabled Ethereum ETF poses a threat to the business model of DAT companies, such as BitMine, which accumulate cryptocurrency, according to 10x Research. Investors cannot exit such structures without significant losses.

Cryptocurrency-backed lending reached $73.6 billion at the end of the third quarter, surpassing the previous record set in 2021, according to Galaxy Research.

USD/JPY eased from new ten-month high on Friday after the latest comments from top Japanese officials boosted expectations for intervention, as yen weakened significantly in past couple of weeks and came closer to the levels where the central bank last intervened.

Overbought daily studies also contributed to profit-taking, though pullback is unlikely to be deep (as long as prevailing market expectations that direct intervention will not occur while the pair stay below 160, remain in play).

The dollar remains firm in post-NFP time, on growing hopes that the Fed will keep interest rates on hold in the next meeting that supports the notion.

The price still holds well above first Fibo support at 155.88 (23.6% of 149.37/157.89) with deeper drop to face rising 10DMA (155.42) and expected to find firm ground above broken upper boundary of bull-channel (154.76) and Fibo 38.2% (154.63).

The pair is on track for strong weekly gain, although developing upper shadow on weekly candle warns that bulls might be losing steam, but larger bulls still hold grip and favor scenario of fresh push higher after limited correction, as there is still space until 160 level (possible trigger for intervention).

Res: 157.53; 157.89; 158.20; 158.87.
Sup: 156.44; 155.88; 154.76; 154.63.

New York Fed President John Williams maintained a cautiously dovish tone today, saying he continues to view U.S. monetary policy as “modestly restrictive.” With that in mind, he sees room for “a further adjustment in the near term” to bring the federal funds rate closer to neutral.

Williams reiterated his confidence that inflation will moderate as tariff effects filter through the economy without generating lasting price pressures. At the same time, he emphasized that the labor market appears to be cooling in a controlled manner.

The unemployment rate reached 4.4% in September, a level he noted was comparable to pre-pandemic norms—when the job market was healthy but “not overheated.”

As the XBR/USD chart shows, today (Friday) Brent crude has dropped below $62, after rising above $64.50 as recently as Tuesday. This represents a decline of over 4% from the week’s high.

This sharp bearish movement is driven by an easing of geopolitical risks and hopes for an end to the conflict in Ukraine.

Media outlets are circulating insider reports and rumours of secret coordination between the Trump administration and Moscow on a ceasefire plan. The fall in oil prices suggests that the risk premium, which reflected fears of escalation and supply disruptions, is now being replaced by a scenario of conflict resolution, potentially including a relaxation of sanctions on Russia.

Bearish pressure is also supported by news of:

→ weakness in China’s economy, the world’s largest oil consumer;

→ rising oil inventories in US storage facilities.

Technical Analysis of XBR/USD

Since late October, oil prices have been forming a downward channel. Signs of aggressive selling include (as indicated by the arrows):

1→ a sharp drop without retracements during yesterday’s trading session;

2→ a breach of the $62.60 support level with a bearish gap.

In this context, it is reasonable to suggest that:

→ Brent crude could move towards the lower half of the channel;

→ the channel’s median may act as resistance.

Furthermore, if fundamental indicators confirm progress towards ending the war in Ukraine, the downward trend may continue. This does not rule out a scenario in which Brent tests the lower boundary of the channel, around the psychological $60 per barrel mark.

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Key takeaways

• US equities suffered a sharp reversal, with major indices wiping out strong intraday gains and closing deeply in the red, marking the sharpest swing since April’s tariff shock.
• Nvidia’s failed post-earnings rally was the main catalyst, reversing from a 5% intraday surge to a 3.2% loss and erasing nearly $400 billion in market cap, triggering negative reflexivity across the Nasdaq 100.
• Technical conditions point to growing downside risk, with Nasdaq 100 market breadth deteriorating and Nvidia’s bearish setup threatening to drag the index into a deeper medium-term downtrend.

The US stock market delivered a dramatic reversal on Thursday, 20 November 2025, its sharpest swing since April’s “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs shock.

Bearish movements were observed in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, where both initially rose by 2% and 2.4%, respectively, before all gains were wiped out, ending the US session with losses of 1.6% and 2.4%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.8%) and small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.8%) were not spared from the rout.

The main bearish trigger was the evaporation of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) bellwether, Nvidia’s ex-post earnings share price gains, where it rallied by 5% intraday before a wave of relentless selling took place at mid-US session yesterday. Nvidia ended Thursday’s US session with a loss of 3.2%, wiping out almost $400 billion in market capitalization from its intraday high.

Let’s now focus on the latest technical elements to decipher the medium-term trend (1 to 3 weeks) trajectory of the Nasdaq 100.

Nvidia’s bearish reversal may trigger further negative reflexivity feedback loop

Fig. 1: Nvidia medium-term trend as of 20 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 2: Nvidia’s ex-post Q4 2024 earnings results price actions on 26 February 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Nvidia, being the AI juggernaut and the world’s most valuable company in terms of market capitalization, will have a significant impact on the movement of the Nasdaq 100 and the entire global equities universe via the sentiment feedback loop effect.

Even though the current price actions of Nvidia are still holding at the 177.70 key medium-term pivotal support, the ex-post earnings price reaction has shaped a daily “Bearish Engulfing” candlestick (a long body that has a wide trading range and closed near its session low), which suggests that the 177.70 key medium-term support is vulnerable to a bearish breakdown (see Fig.1)

Also, based on the prior Q4 2024 earnings release on 26 February 2025, Nvidia has shaped a similar daily “Bearish Engulfing” candlestick pattern that led to a price decline of 31% in the next 26 days (see Fig. 2).

Hence, Nvidia now faces a technical deterioration that is likely to trigger further weakness in the Nasdaq 100.

Bearish market breadth in the Nasdaq 100

Fig. 3: Percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above 50-day & 200-day moving averages as of 20 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The Nasdaq 100 remains above its 200-day moving average, which continues to serve as a key long-term pivotal support at 22,250.

However, market breadth has weakened sharply. The share of Nasdaq 100 constituents trading above their 200-day moving averages plunged from 50% on 12 November 2025 to just 28% by Thursday, 20 November 2025 (see Fig. 3).

It has not reached the “bullish capitulation” zone of 13%/4% which suggests the Nasdaq 100 may have further room to decline at this juncture.

Preferred trend bias (1-3 weeks) – Start of medium-term downtrend

Fig. 4: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index medium-term trend as of 21 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The price actions of the Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 futures) have dropped by around 8% from its current all-time high of 26,288 printed on 30 October 2025.

Failure to hold above the 50-day moving average after a reintegration above it on Thursday, 20 November 2025, on an intraday basis invalidates a bullish reversal scenario.

In addition, the 4-hour MACD trend indicator has continued to trend downwards steadily below its centreline, which reinforces a medium-term downtrend phase.

Watch the 25,290 key medium-term pivotal resistance (also the 20-day moving average) for another leg of potential bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next medium-term supports at 23,455 and 22,990 (also 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the up move from 22 April 2025 low to the current all-time high of 30 October 2025).

A break below 22,900 may see a further decline to test the 22,250 key long-term pivotal support (also the 200-day moving average) (see Fig. 4).

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 weeks)

A clearance above 25,290 key resistance negates the bearish tone to see a potential push up to retest 25,745. Only a breakout with a daily close above 25,745 kickstarts a potential brand new bullish impulsive up move sequence towards the current all-time high of 26,288, followed by the next medium-term resistance at 26,480/26,545.

Provisional PMI data for November shows that business activity in the eurozone is still growing strongly, and companies are feeling optimistic about the upcoming year.

However, there are some mixed signals: the growth of new orders has slowed down, and businesses stopped hiring new workers after a brief increase in October.

Financially, companies are facing higher expenses. Their operating costs rose at the fastest speed in eight months, largely due to higher prices in manufacturing. Despite these rising costs, businesses only raised their own prices slightly, the smallest increase for customers in over a year.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

The eurozone economy continued to show solid growth in November, although the momentum remains uneven across sectors.

Overall Activity: The Composite PMI Output Index posted at 52.4, signaling a solid monthly rise in business activity, marking the 11th consecutive month of growth. This rate of expansion is among the sharpest seen in the last two and a half years.

Sector Divide: Growth was driven almost entirely by the service sector, which expanded at its fastest pace in a year and a half. In contrast, manufacturing production increased only slightly, tying for the slowest rate in the current nine-month growth sequence.

New Orders: While new orders rose for the fourth month in a row, the rate of growth slowed down. This was largely due to weak international demand, as export orders (including trade within the eurozone) decreased again.

On the inflation front, input costs rose at the fastest rate since March, but output price inflation eased to its lowest level in just over a year. Business sentiment edged higher in November, signaling improving confidence despite softer demand indicators.

Euro Area Q3 Negotiated Wages

The European Central Bank's survey of negotiated wages for the third quarter came in well below expectations with a print of 1.87% YoY vs estimates of 2.45%. The ECB and market participants had been hoping for a better number which would have shown that real wages are rising which would lead to solid demand in 2026.

This will now be something the ECB will monitor moving forward and lines up with some of the concerns around demand raised by the PMI data.

Technical Analysis - EUR/USD

Looking at EUR/USD from a technical standpoint, the pair appears on course to print a fresh lower low.

EUR/USD has largely been driven by US Dollar developments of late and the one concern may hinge on the price action of the US Dollar Index.

The Dollar index has peaked above the psychological 100.00 mark but has printed what looks like a double top pattern.

If the Dollar index begins to drop this could scupper the move for EUR/USD to print a fresh lower low and EUR/USD coil revisit the recent swing high at 1.1650.

EUR/USD Daily Chart, November 21, 2025

Source:TradingView.com

Support

• 1.1500
• 1.1450 (key pivot level)
• 1.1405 (200-day MA)

Resistance

• 1.1585
• 1.1650
• 1.1700

Looking Ahead

Later in the day we have several central bank officials are scheduled to speak today, most notably ECB President Christine Lagarde at a conference in Frankfurt. Since the event focuses on the benefits of investing in Europe, Lagarde may discuss the idea of strengthening the Euro's role on the world stage. Recent reports suggest the ECB is considering a plan to let central banks outside the eurozone access Euros more easily.

This strategy is designed to make countries more comfortable using the Euro for international trade, similar to a method China has used for its currency and to boost the Euro's global standing.

Gold edged lower to 4,060 USD per ounce on Friday, positioning the metal for a modest weekly decline. The shift in sentiment follows a stronger-than-anticipated delayed US employment report, which has tempered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

The Labour Department's data, delayed by the recent government shutdown, significantly exceeded forecasts: September non-farm payrolls rose by 119,000, well above the expected 50,000. Markets interpreted the report as confirming the Fed's October assessment—that the labour market is cooling gradually but remains fundamentally stable. However, the unemployment rate climbed to 4.4%, its highest level since 2021, while wage growth came in slightly above expectations at 3.8%.

Notably, the October employment report will not be published separately; the Bureau of Labor Statistics will combine the data with November's release.

Amid these mixed labour market signals and cautious commentary from Fed officials, markets now price the probability of a December rate cut at just 40%, maintaining downward pressure on gold.

Interestingly, despite a broad shift away from risk assets across global capital markets, gold has yet to see significant safe-haven inflows.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD is forming a consolidation range around 4,076 USD. The pair may first extend this range downward toward 4,019 USD before resuming an upward move to 4,141 USD. A decisive break above this level would open the path for a fifth wave of growth targeting 4,285 USD. The MACD indicator supports this view, with its signal line below zero, suggesting the current correction has further to run before the next leg higher.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market has established a consolidation range around 4,075 USD. A downward wave is expected to develop toward at least 4,020 USD, which would complete the first phase of a larger pattern. This would be followed by a growth wave toward 4,131 USD, a correction back toward 4,020 USD, and then a final advance targeting 4,263 USD. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this outlook, with its signal line at 20 and beginning to turn upward, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce.

Conclusion

Gold remains range-bound as conflicting labour market data and diminished rate cut expectations counterbalance its traditional safe-haven appeal. The technical picture suggests further consolidation is likely, with a potential dip toward 4,019–4,020 USD offering a buying opportunity for a subsequent move toward 4,141 USD and beyond. The metal's inability to attract significant safe-haven flows despite equity market weakness remains a concern for bulls, leaving the near-term trajectory heavily dependent on upcoming US economic data and Fed communications.

UK flash PMIs for November delivered a broadly downbeat signal on the economic outlook. Manufacturing managed to edge back into expansion territory, rising from 49.7 to 50.2 — its highest level in 14 months. But that improvement was overshadowed by a sharp drop in services activity, with PMI Services sliding from 52.3 to 50.5, a seven-month low. As a result, Composite PMI fell notably from 52.2 to 50.5.

According to Chris Williamson of S&P Global Market Intelligence, the latest readings point to an economy that has “stalled,” with job losses accelerating and business confidence deteriorating sharply. The PMI readings are broadly consistent with zero GDP growth for November and only around 0.1% growth so far in Q4.

While part of the slowdown is being blamed on paused spending decisions ahead of the Autumn Budget, weakening confidence suggests the hesitation may “turn into a downturn” if households and firms brace for new "demand-dampening measures" .

The inflation outlook also softened meaningfully. Selling price inflation dropped to its lowest in almost five years, with goods prices falling at the fastest rate since 2016 and service-sector pricing power weakening.

Taken together, the PMI data reinforce expectations that the BoE would cut rates in December, especially if next week's Budget reinforces the pessimistic tone.

Full UK PMI flash release here.

Eurozone business activity lost a little momentum in November as PMI Composite edged down from 52.5 to 52.4. Manufacturing slipped back into contraction at 49.7, down from 50.0, a five-month low. Services inched up from 53.0 to an 18-month high of 53.1.

Hamburg Commercial Bank’s Chief Economist Cyrus de la Rubia noted that manufacturing remains “marooned in a no-man’s land of directionlessness,” with soft demand showing up in yet another decline in new orders. He warned the sector is still “months, possibly even several quarters” away from a sustained turnaround, pointing to deteriorating conditions in both Germany and France. Indeed, Germany’s PMI Manufacturing fell from 49.6 to 48.4 and France dropped from 48.8 to 47.8.

By contrast, services continue to provide a much-needed buffer. Germany’s service-sector growth slowed (down from 54.6 to 62.7) but stayed comfortably positive. France returned to expansion (up from 48.0 to 50.8). With the services sector carrying far more weight in the Eurozone economy, the currency bloc is still on track for faster growth in Q4 compared with Q3.

Full Eurozone PMI flash release here.