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    EUR/JPY Weekly Outlook

    ActionForex

    EUR/JPY jumped further to 181.98 last week but retreated from there. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Downside should be contained by 178.80 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 181.98 will target 100% projection of 161.06 to 173.87 from 171.09 at 183.90 next. However, firm break of 178.80 will argue that deeper correction is already underway towards 55 D EMA (now at 176.36).

    In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 169.00) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

    In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long as 154.77 support holds.

    EUR/GBP Weekly Outlook

    EUR/GBP's pullback from 0.8863 extended lower last week but downside is still contained above 0.8765 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 0.8765 will confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.8739). Sustained break there will be an early sign of bearish trend reversal. Nevertheless, decisive break of 0.8867 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications.

    In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8589) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

    In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

    EUR/AUD Weekly Outlook

    EUR/JPY gyrated higher last week but lost momentum again after hitting 1.7934. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, above 1.7934 will resume the rebound from 1.7561 towards 0.8160 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 1.7739 support will argue that the rebound has completed and turn bias back to the downside for 1.756.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7440) will suggest that it's correcting the whole rally from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 55 W EMA will likely bring resumption of the up trend sooner.

    In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6548) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.

    EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

    EUR/CHF's strong rebound last week indicates short term bottoming at 0.9178. Still, with 0.9325 resistance intact, outlook remains bearish and another fall is still in favor. On the downside, below 0.9254 minor support will bring retest 0.9178 support. However, considering bullish convergence condition in D MACD, decisive break of 0.9325 will argue that whole fall from 0.9660 has completed. Strong rally should then be seen towards 0.9452 resistance.

    In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish with EUR/CHF staying well inside long term falling channel after multiple rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9377). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Break of 0.9452 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

    In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in progress in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as falling 55 M EMA (now at 0.9800) holds.

    Markets Weekly Outlook – UK Budget in Focus as Global Equities Eye Recovery

    Week in review

    The week draws to a close on a positive note after a significant selloff in risk assets as US rate cut bets continued to decline from the Federal Reserve's December meeting.

    US jobs data for September was finally released but came with a caveat, the October and November data will not be released until after the Fed's December meeting. This is one of the main contributing factors to the decline in rate cut probabilities which dropped to a low of around 25%.

    However, Friday saw a significant change once more with markets once again favoring a rate cut at the December meeting and this may continue to change as the Fed meeting in December draws closer.

    Source: CME FedWatch Tool

    Risk assets faced a difficult week with the three major US indices trading 5.5-8.5% below their recent peaks at one point. The concern for markets came as a surprise given the positive earnings report by chip giant NVIDIA as valuation concerns linger.

    Investors are beginning to doubt the rising stock prices of leading AI companies. They are worried that these companies are announcing big plans that they don't actually have the money or the factory capacity to handle right now. If these worries continue, it will be very hard for the stock market to go up significantly. Interesting times ahead indeed especially after the positive end to the week.

    All major US stock indexes rose on Friday as investors became more confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. This optimism grew after John Williams, a key central bank official, stated that rates could be lowered soon without causing inflation to rise again. Despite this positive end to the week, the main market indexes are still expected to finish with a total loss of about 2% for the week.

    Technology stocks also stabilized after suffering a sharp drop the previous day. Most large companies saw their values go up, led by Google’s parent company, Alphabet, which rose by 3%. Meanwhile, shares of AI chipmaker Nvidia remained flat; this follows a very unstable day on Thursday where the stock price swung wildly after the company released its quarterly financial results.

    How has the US Dollar and FX Performed?

    The US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen on Friday after Japanese officials warned they might take action to stop the yen from losing too much value. The Finance Minister stated that the government is ready to step in if currency prices swing too wildly, which alerted traders that Japan might start buying yen soon to support it.

    Despite this specific drop against the yen, the dollar had a very strong week overall. It reached its highest level since May against other major currencies and is on track for its best weekly performance in six weeks.

    Meanwhile, other major currencies and assets struggled. The Euro dropped slightly and is set to lose roughly 1% for the week. The British Pound also fell, trading around $1.31, as investors wait for the UK government's new budget plan while facing signs of a weak economy.

    In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin had a difficult day, falling nearly 5% to around $82,900, its lowest price in seven months.

    In the week ahead,keep an eye on the Japanese Yen as the case for FX intervention continues to grow.

    The Week Ahead

    The week ahead will not be as busy for the US given that it is Thanksgiving, which means data will be packed in the first three days of the week.

    There are still some high impact data releases from Asia and of course the highly anticipated UK budget, where Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces an unenviable task.

    Asia Pacific Markets

    China is set to release its industrial profit figures on Thursday, which will complete the economic data for the month. Profits have been improving recently, showing a 3.2% increase for the year so far, driven largely by very strong growth of over 20% in both August and September. Part of this jump is because last year's numbers were low, and while that statistical advantage will fade in the fourth quarter, profits for October are still expected to look healthy.

    The strongest industries this year have been those that sell goods abroad, specifically trains, ships, aerospace equipment, and electronics and this positive trend is likely to continue.

    In Japan, inflation in Tokyo is expected to rise to 2.7% in November, fueled by higher worker wages and a weaker Yen, which pushes prices up. Factory output remains steady following a trade agreement with the US.

    Although the economy shrank in the third quarter, recent signs of recovery support the Bank of Japan's plan to return to standard economic policies. While fewer investors now expect interest rates to rise in December, based on innuendo and comments, it appears at least three central bank members support the move. I still lean toward a rate hike next month, though there is a growing chance it could be delayed until January.

    Thanksgiving Week in the US as the UK Budget Comes Into Focus

    Because of Thanksgiving, economic reports are coming out early this week, but they may be unreliable due to the government shutdown. Key jobs and inflation data have been delayed until after the Federal Reserve's December meeting.

    Since officials were already planning to keep interest rates steady, the lack of new data means they likely won't cut rates unless the economy faces a sudden crisis. However, we still predict interest rates will eventually drop by 0.75% by the middle of 2026.

    The main event to watch in the week ahead is the "Beige Book," a general survey of the economy.

    On Wednesday, the UK Chancellor faces a £30 billion gap in the budget. Markets are watching to see if she raises taxes to fix this, as her decision will affect future interest rates and government borrowing. Regardless of what happens, the country's deficit is expected to shrink next year.

    For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

    Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index

    This week's Chart of the week is the US Dollar Index (DXY)

    From a technical perspective, the DXY has broken above the 100.00 psychological level.

    This is the third time since the end of July that this has happened and each time thus far a selloff has taken place. Will we see similar price action again or will the DXY finally gain acceptance above this key psychological level?

    This will be the major test in the days ahead.

    US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart - November 21, 2025

    Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge)

    The Weekly Bottom Line: Data – In, December’s Rate Cut – Out?

    Canadian Highlights

    • Canada’s economy is showing signs of slowing momentum, but inflation persists.
    • Upcoming GDP figures have an additional layer of uncertainty due to delayed trade data.
    • Tepid growth and slowly softening underlying inflation are in line with the Bank of Canada’s projections, suggesting no upcoming changes to the policy rate.

    U.S. Highlights

    • Equity markets sold off this week as investors continued to worry about the valuations of AI companies.
    • Although the data fog has started to clear, it did little to resolve differences among FOMC members, with a rate cut in December now looking less likely.
    • The delayed September payrolls report was better than expected, rising by 119,000 jobs. However, the unemployment rate increased to a new cyclical high of 4.4%.

    Canada – Waning Momentum and Stubborn Inflation

    An absolute data dump of a week, with updates on housing, inflation and retail sales. The overall story was one of waning economic momentum, and some disappointingly stubborn underlying inflation. That is basically in line with the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) and our expectations – tepid growth and gradually weakening price pressures. With trade policy still prone to large changes, things could swing rapidly, but the new information this week suggests the BoC will remain on the sidelines for the time being.

    The Canadian housing market continues to trudge along, with monthly starts dipping 3% on a six-month moving average basis. The figure isn’t all that surprising given that new housing construction has been running at a healthy clip well ahead of anything registered before the pandemic (Chart 1). This has been supported by healthy activity in the multifamily space, with purpose-built rental construction offsetting the drag from the owner-occupied segment. Nonetheless, with building permits trending downward the sector’s contribution to growth is likely to fade.

    Fading momentum was the story in September’s retail sales figures as well, with sales tumbling 0.8% in real terms on the month, essentially reversing August’s gains. This leaves real retail sales up only 1.2% versus a year ago. October’s flash estimate is for no growth – although with goods CPI falling last month there is hope for some small gains in volume terms. Nonetheless, real retail spending contracting in the third quarter and trending below 2% for the year are not the hallmarks of robust consumer activity.

    Domestic activity data suggest that some of the healthy momentum in late-2024 and the second quarter of this year has begun to fade amid an elevated unemployment rate. This is consistent with our view that inflation should remain contained in the coming months as domestic excess supply helps to offset inflationary pressure from global trade disruptions. And there are inflationary pressures to be offset. Measures of core inflation remain close to 3% on an annual basis, and near-term trends have also flipped higher, with three-month rates of change above 2.5% for the four most-prominent indicators (Chart 2).

    This sets the stage for next week’s third quarter GDP report. Our expectation is that growth will register somewhere between 0.5% and 1.0% on a quarterly (annualized) basis. This forecast, however, has an additional layer of uncertainty embedded in it as the U.S. government shut down delayed the release of Canadian trade data. Given the swings in trade in the second quarter, this forms a vital input into the projection – so its absence is adding uncertainty. We await clarity on when the information will be released and whether Statistics Canada’s estimates of third quarter GDP will incorporate the information or rely on their own estimates of the figure.

    All told, signs point to slow growth for Canada in Q3, with some stubbornness in inflation. All in line with what the BoC outlines in their most recent projection and suggesting that change in policy is not in the offing.

    U.S. – Data – In, December’s Rate Cut – Out?

    Equity markets sold off this week amid concerns about high tech-stock valuations and aggressive AI capital spending. As of writing, the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite was down 2.5% on the week, while the S&P 500 had declined 1.9%.

    Official economic data began to trickle in, with September’s payroll report being the most notable. However, reporting backlogs are expected to persist. October payrolls will be released with November’s figures on December 16, not in time for the FOMC’s next meeting on December 9–10. Other data points, like October CPI, will not be released. On the housing side, existing home sales edged higher in October, supported by falling mortgage rates. Still, the housing market continues to tread water as affordability remains stretched, despite some modest improvement in recent months (Chart 1).

    A busy slate of Fed speakers reaffirmed the lack of consensus among FOMC members for another rate cut in December. Some, like Governor Jefferson (voter), advocated for a cautious, “meeting-by-meeting approach,” as the policy rate moves closer to neutral. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (voter) joined the hawkish camp, downplaying the recent labour-market weakness and emphasizing the lack of progress on inflation.

    Minutes from the October FOMC meeting also highlighted the growing divide, with many participants seeing no case for easing in December. This contributed to market pricing shifting towards the next cut coming in January rather than December. After that meeting, Chair Powell stated that a December cut “is not a foregone conclusion, far from it.”

    But policy doves like Governor Waller (voter), argued that another rate cut in December is warranted, given his assessment that the labor market remains weak, longer-term inflation expectations are anchored, and the impact of tariffs on inflation are likely to be transitory. Echoing this view, FOMC Vice Chair Williams emphasized that inflation expectations remain “very well anchored” and noted room for further cuts over the ‘near-term’. These remarks helped to tip market odds back in favour of a December cut on Friday morning.

    The delayed September payrolls report did little to reconcile the divide among policymakers. Hawks were likely reassured by the better-than-expected job gains: payrolls rose by 119k—the strongest reading since April (Chart 2). However, policy doves are likely to point to the negative revisions to prior months, the narrow concentration of job gains, and the uptick in the unemployment rate.

    All in all, hawkish voters appear to outnumber the doves on the FOMC for now, and there is no official jobs or inflation data before the next meeting to shift views. Therefore, we expect the slow-and-steady approach to carry the day and for the Fed to hold rates steady in December. Chair Powell perhaps said it best: “when you’re driving in the fog, you slowdown”. That said, the door for a cut in January remains open.

    Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Tariffs on the Table

    Summary

    United States: Should They Stay or Should They Go?

    • Delayed data started to trickle in this week, adding to the debate over the Fed's course of action at its December meeting. The September jobs report painted the picture of a cooling but not rapidly deteriorating jobs market. We believe the data are supportive of a December cut, but it's not a done deal.
    • Next week: Consumer Confidence (Tue.), Retail Sales (Tue.), Durable Goods (Wed.)

    International: Sluggish Yet Resilient

    • Japan’s economy contracted in Q3 while prices accelerated in October. In contrast, inflation eased in the UK and Canada, reinforcing expectations for policy adjustments. Eurozone PMIs signaled mixed momentum—sluggish but positive growth—while UK PMIs disappointed, highlighting stalled activity.
    • Next week: RBNZ Policy Rate (Wed.), Canada GDP (Fri.), India GDP (Fri.)

    Topic of the Week: Tariffs on the Table

    • As consumers gear up for the holiday season, they are contending with stubborn inflation. The trend decline in inflation stalled this year, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing 3.0% year-over-year in September—its highest reading since January. Though services prices have been gradually slowing, goods prices have experienced a pickup, and food categories have not been immune.

    Full report here. 

    Forward Guidance: Canada’s Economy Steadied in Q3 After Trade-Led Contraction in Q2

    We expect the Canadian economy grew an annualized 0.5% in Q3—a partial reversal of the 1.6% decline in Q2 when international trade disruptions plunged exports lower.

    Next Friday’s Q3 gross domestic product appears backloaded with (what we expect will be) a 0.3% bounce-back in September after a surprise 0.3% contraction in August. That is firmer than the 0.1% preliminary estimate from Statistics Canada, but consistent with further acceleration in growth in Q4.

    Heavily trade exposed industries continued to broadly underperform in Q3, but have shown further signs of stabilization. Manufacturing and wholesale sales volumes rebounded by an annualized 6 ½ % in Q3 to partially reverse large declines (-11.7% and -9%, respectively) in Q2.

    Offsetting weakness in the trade exposed sectors is domestic Canadian demand that has remained relatively resilient so far. Business investment likely contracted in Q3, but our tracking of RBC card transactions points to further, albeit slower growth in consumer spending after a large increase in Q2. Residential investment is expected to have risen again in Q3 as well, following a gradual pick-up in home resales since March.

    Net international trade data through August is on pace to add slightly to growth in Q3 after record subtraction from Q2 GDP (outside 2020 pandemic lockdowns) when exports plunged on lower shipments to the United States.

    Missing September trade data could lead to revisions

    Canadian international trade data for September is still missing. Statistics Canada relies on U.S. Census Bureau for information on Canadian exports to the U.S. that has been delayed by the six-week U.S. government shutdown. It’s, therefore, likely the quarterly Canadian trade data in the GDP add-up will include imputations, and could see larger-than-normal revisions in the future.

    Overall, early indicators for monthly September GDP have been positive. Manufacturing sales volume jumped 2.7%—the largest one-month increase since January 2023. Oil production increased almost 3% in September by our estimates, and is on track to add positively to Q3 GDP growth after wildfires and maintenance related disruptions dampened oil sands production in Q2.

    Air transportation also contributed to GDP growth in September after a strike in August temporarily weighed on output. Soft spots for growth in September include retail sales volume which pulled back 0.8%, and mining output (ex-oil & gas) that by our count edged lower for a second straight month.

    Week ahead data watch:

    September Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours data on Thursday should show moderation in declining job vacancies, following recent stabilization in timelier Indeed job openings data. Wage growth is expected to have further unwound, and the employment details will be closely watched for more signs of tariff impact among most targeted Canadian manufacturing sub-industries.

    The end of the U.S. government shutdown will see a gradual return of economic data releases in the coming weeks. We expect next week’s retail sales will show a 0.2% in September and a smaller 0.1% rise in core sales. Producer price index is expected to have risen 0.4% in September, led by goods as tariff impact continue to flow through gradually. Core PPI is expected to have risen 0.3% in the same month.

    Summary 11/24 – 11/28

    Monday, Nov 24, 2025

    GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
    09:00 EUR Germany IFO Business Climate Nov 88.5 88.4
    09:00 EUR Germany IFO Current Assessment Nov 85.3
    09:00 EUR Germany IFO Expectations Nov 91.6
    GMT Ccy Events
    09:00 EUR Germany IFO Business Climate Nov
        Forecast: 88.5 Previous: 88.4
    09:00 EUR Germany IFO Current Assessment Nov
        Forecast: Previous: 85.3
    09:00 EUR Germany IFO Expectations Nov
        Forecast: Previous: 91.6

    Tuesday, Nov 25, 2025

    GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
    07:00 EUR Germany GDP Q/Q Q3 F 0.00% 0.00%
    13:30 USD Retail Sales M/M Sep 0.40% 0.60%
    13:30 USD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Sep 0.30% 0.70%
    13:30 USD PPI M/M Sep 0.30% -0.10%
    13:30 USD PPI Y/Y Sep 2.70% 2.60%
    13:30 USD PPI Core M/M Sep -0.10%
    13:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Sep 2.80%
    14:00 USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI Y/Y Sep 1.60%
    14:00 USD Housing Price Index M/M Sep 0.40%
    15:00 USD Consumer Confidence Nov 93.4 94.6
    15:00 USD Pending Homeles M/M Oct 0%
    15:00 USD Business Inventories Aug 0.10% 0.20%
    23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Index Y/Y Oct 2.70% 3.00%
    GMT Ccy Events
    07:00 EUR Germany GDP Q/Q Q3 F
        Forecast: 0.00% Previous: 0.00%
    13:30 USD Retail Sales M/M Sep
        Forecast: 0.40% Previous: 0.60%
    13:30 USD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Sep
        Forecast: 0.30% Previous: 0.70%
    13:30 USD PPI M/M Sep
        Forecast: 0.30% Previous: -0.10%
    13:30 USD PPI Y/Y Sep
        Forecast: 2.70% Previous: 2.60%
    13:30 USD PPI Core M/M Sep
        Forecast: Previous: -0.10%
    13:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Sep
        Forecast: Previous: 2.80%
    14:00 USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI Y/Y Sep
        Forecast: Previous: 1.60%
    14:00 USD Housing Price Index M/M Sep
        Forecast: Previous: 0.40%
    15:00 USD Consumer Confidence Nov
        Forecast: 93.4 Previous: 94.6
    15:00 USD Pending Homeles M/M Oct
        Forecast: Previous: 0%
    15:00 USD Business Inventories Aug
        Forecast: 0.10% Previous: 0.20%
    23:50 JPY Corporate Service Price Index Y/Y Oct
        Forecast: 2.70% Previous: 3.00%

    Wednesday, Nov 26, 2025

    GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
    00:30 AUD Monthly CPI Y/Y Oct 3.60% 3.50%
    01:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2.25% 2.50%
    09:00 CHF UBS Economic Expectations Nov -7.7
    13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 21) 226K 220K
    13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Sep 0.20% 2.90%
    13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transport Sep 0.20% 0.30%
    14:45 USD Chicago PMI Nov 43.9 43.8
    15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories (Nov 21) -3.4M
    17:00 USD Natural Gas Storage (Nov 21) -14B
    19:00 USD Fed's Beige Book
    21:45 NZD Retail Sales Q/Q Q3 0.60% 0.50%
    21:45 NZD Retail Sales ex Autos Q/Q Q3 0.80% 0.70%
    GMT Ccy Events
    00:30 AUD Monthly CPI Y/Y Oct
        Forecast: 3.60% Previous: 3.50%
    01:00 NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
        Forecast: 2.25% Previous: 2.50%
    09:00 CHF UBS Economic Expectations Nov
        Forecast: Previous: -7.7
    13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 21)
        Forecast: 226K Previous: 220K
    13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Sep
        Forecast: 0.20% Previous: 2.90%
    13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transport Sep
        Forecast: 0.20% Previous: 0.30%
    14:45 USD Chicago PMI Nov
        Forecast: 43.9 Previous: 43.8
    15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories (Nov 21)
        Forecast: Previous: -3.4M
    17:00 USD Natural Gas Storage (Nov 21)
        Forecast: Previous: -14B
    19:00 USD Fed's Beige Book
        Forecast: Previous:
    21:45 NZD Retail Sales Q/Q Q3
        Forecast: 0.60% Previous: 0.50%
    21:45 NZD Retail Sales ex Autos Q/Q Q3
        Forecast: 0.80% Previous: 0.70%

    Thursday, Nov 27, 2025

    GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
    00:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence Nov 58.1
    00:30 AUD Private Capital Expenditure Q3 0.60% 0.20%
    07:00 EUR Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Dec -23.4 -24.1
    09:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Oct 2.80% 2.80%
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Sentiment Nov 96.8
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Nov -8.2
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Services Sentiment Nov 4
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Nov F -14.2 -14.2
    12:30 EUR ECB Meeting Accounts
    13:30 CAD Current Account (CAD) Q3 -14.4B -21.2B
    23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y Nov 2.80%
    23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Nov 2.70% 2.80%
    23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core-Core Y/Y Nov 2.80%
    23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Oct 2.50% 2.60%
    23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Oct P -0.60% 2.60%
    23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Oct 0.80% 0.50%
    GMT Ccy Events
    00:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence Nov
        Forecast: Previous: 58.1
    00:30 AUD Private Capital Expenditure Q3
        Forecast: 0.60% Previous: 0.20%
    07:00 EUR Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Dec
        Forecast: -23.4 Previous: -24.1
    09:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Oct
        Forecast: 2.80% Previous: 2.80%
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Sentiment Nov
        Forecast: Previous: 96.8
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Nov
        Forecast: Previous: -8.2
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Services Sentiment Nov
        Forecast: Previous: 4
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Nov F
        Forecast: -14.2 Previous: -14.2
    12:30 EUR ECB Meeting Accounts
        Forecast: Previous:
    13:30 CAD Current Account (CAD) Q3
        Forecast: -14.4B Previous: -21.2B
    23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y Nov
        Forecast: Previous: 2.80%
    23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Nov
        Forecast: 2.70% Previous: 2.80%
    23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core-Core Y/Y Nov
        Forecast: Previous: 2.80%
    23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Oct
        Forecast: 2.50% Previous: 2.60%
    23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Oct P
        Forecast: -0.60% Previous: 2.60%
    23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Oct
        Forecast: 0.80% Previous: 0.50%

    Friday, Nov 28, 2025

    GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
    00:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Oct 0.60% 0.60%
    05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Oct -4.90% -7.30%
    07:00 EUR Germany Import Price Index M/M Oct 0.30% 0.20%
    07:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales M/M Oct 0.30% 0.20%
    07:45 EUR France GDP Q/Q Q3 0.50% 0.50%
    08:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Nov 100.8 101.3
    08:00 CHF GDP Q/Q Q3 -0.50% 0.10%
    08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate Oct 6.30%
    08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change Oct 6K -1K
    13:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Nov P -0.20% 0.30%
    13:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Nov P 2.30%
    13:30 CAD GDP M/M Sep 0.20% -0.30%
    GMT Ccy Events
    00:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Oct
        Forecast: 0.60% Previous: 0.60%
    05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Oct
        Forecast: -4.90% Previous: -7.30%
    07:00 EUR Germany Import Price Index M/M Oct
        Forecast: 0.30% Previous: 0.20%
    07:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales M/M Oct
        Forecast: 0.30% Previous: 0.20%
    07:45 EUR France GDP Q/Q Q3
        Forecast: 0.50% Previous: 0.50%
    08:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Nov
        Forecast: 100.8 Previous: 101.3
    08:00 CHF GDP Q/Q Q3
        Forecast: -0.50% Previous: 0.10%
    08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate Oct
        Forecast: Previous: 6.30%
    08:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change Oct
        Forecast: 6K Previous: -1K
    13:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Nov P
        Forecast: -0.20% Previous: 0.30%
    13:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Nov P
        Forecast: Previous: 2.30%
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    Week Ahead – Could US Data Revive Risk Appetite Amidst a Low Liquidity Week?

    • Risk assets sell off on AI valuation concerns and hawkish Fedspeak.
    • US data in focus amidst a holiday-shortened week with low liquidity available.
    • Dollar weakness hinges on improved risk appetite and weak data releases.
    • Fresh Ukraine-Russia peace deal pushes both oil and gold lower.
    • Intervention risk heightens for yen; pound traders await Wednesday’s Budget.

    Risk appetite falters this week, Nvidia fails to reverse sentiment

    It has been a very difficult period for risk assets, with equities feeling the pressure throughout the week. At some stage, the three major US indices were 5.5-8.5% below their recent peaks, with technical analysis generating very bearish short-term signals. This market nervousness is clearly depicted in one-month implied volatility rising to new monthly highs.

    Interestingly, Wednesday’s strong Nvidia earnings report and the upbeat commentary from its CEO failed to sustainably reverse the negative momentum. Investors continue to question the rallies posted by firms seen as AI leaders, and their investment announcements, which go beyond their current financial and manufacturing capabilities. Should AI-related concerns linger, it would be difficult to risk assets to meaningfully rally.

    The situation is even worse in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is trading around $83k at the time of writing, 35% below its all-time high of $126k, almost fully erasing its post-April gains. The king of cryptos is down 18% this week – the strongest weekly drop since mid-November 2022 – with November primed to post the worst monthly performance since the June 2022 correction.

    Hawkish Fedspeak also dampens risk sentiment

    Beyond AI, hawkish Fedspeak has been branded as the main culprit for the negative risk appetite. Chances of the December rate cut have crashed to 27% from 90% before the October meeting, as the hawks have been extremely vocal lately, highlighting the lack of clean data posing the greatest obstacle for further rate cuts. The minutes from the latest FOMC meeting confirmed this hawkish stance, with the Fed doves scrambling to gather enough evidence to convince the board of the need for further easing.

    Data in focus but shortened week implies minimal moves

    Next week’s focus will probably be on the amended US data calendar. With the October CPI report missing, next week’s PCE print is critical for Fedspeak; a soft report may revive the current low December expectations, supporting risk appetite.

    That said, consumer confidence could play an even greater role going forward. Persistent weakening in spending appetite could result in significantly weak Q4 GDP growth, highlighting the damage done by the shutdown. As a reminder, the recently approved bill funds the federal government until January 30, so the risk of another shutdown cannot be understated.

    Notably, next week will be shortened due to Thursday’s US Thanksgiving holiday and Black Friday, when US markets will observe an early close, with noticeably lower liquidity available.

    Trade tensions and geopolitics are wildcards for next week

    Amidst this mixed environment, there are a couple of wildcards that could materially change market sentiment.

    While trade tensions have abated, there are issues in the background that could result in flare-ups. Specifically, there is uncertainty about the US administration’s stance regarding foreign made chips – will Trump impose hefty tariffs? – and the currently debated ‘Gain AI’ bill in Congress. This bill requires US chip companies such as Nvidia to limit their exports, giving priority to domestic clients, potentially drawing China’s ire.

    The second wildcard is the fresh US-brokered peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Despite the plan appearing to favour Russia, and the initial negative reaction from Ukrainian officials, the current deal might be the only way to restart the negotiations between the two sides.

    Concrete progress toward a resolution would support risk appetite, but dent gold’s current appeal. The precious metal has been dropping toward $4,000, unable to capitalize on the stock market weakness, potentially revealing its own weaknesses such as the overstretched 2025 rally. A move towards the late October low of $3,886 may challenge the prevailing long-term bullish trend.

    Persistent risk-off sentiment could boost the Dollar

    While both the US government reopening and the hawkish Fedspeak failed to boost the US dollar, the current stock market weakness is a different story. The greenback is posting gains this week, with euro/dollar testing the 1.1500 area once again. A boost in December Fed cut expectations, an improvement in risk appetite and positive news on the geopolitical stage could dent the dollar’s current appeal next week.

    In the meantime, the newsflow from the euro area remains subdued, as most of the ECB members are content with the current monetary policy stance. Thursday’s minutes from the last ECB meeting are expected to confirm the current rates pause, with the focus quickly shifting to Friday’s preliminary Germany inflation report. The absence of a major downside surprise in this data print should make the final ECB meeting for 2025 more a formality than something that could capture the market’s attention.

    UK budget in focus, pound in agony

    Following months of speculation, Chancellor Reeves will present the 2026 Budget in Parliament on Wednesday, November 26. The market’s attention will be on the magnitude of tax increases, as Reeves attempts to close the current £20bn fiscal gap to remain on course to meet her own fiscal rules, and increase the fiscal headroom. Plans for higher personal taxes have been abandoned, but other revenue sources will be explored, with higher property taxes potentially in the frame.

    With gilt yields climbing lately and the pound weakening aggressively, the budget could prove a make-or-break moment. Aggressive tax increases might initially please the market but could open the door to a severe government crisis, challenging PM Starmer’s ability to govern. The result will probably be higher gilt yields and a weaker pound.

    A tax-light budget might also result in a negative market reaction as the Labour government would be then seen as lacking the resolve to take difficult decisions. Higher yields will not benefit the pound, with pound bears eyeing a decline towards the April 7, 2005 low of 1.2707 in pound/dollar.

    The BoE will be left to pick up the pieces of the Budget, with an 82% probability currently assigned to a December rate cut following the softer October CPI report. An acute market reaction following the budget could further support current cut expectations and bring forward the next 25bps rate cut – after December’s meeting – currently fully priced in for July.

    Yen weakness persists as BoJ fails to provide a lifeline

    With Governor Ueda still sending mixed messages about the timing of the next rate hike, and PM Takaichi announcing a new stimulus plan of ¥21.3tr ($135bn) – the largest since 2022 – the yen remains under pressure. Next Friday’s critical Tokyo CPI might surprise on the upside, somewhat boosting the yen, but this might not prove enough to turn the tide.

    Meanwhile, verbal interventions have intensified as dollar/yen reached 157.88 on Thursday. Should this move persist, with dollar/yen surpassing the 2025 high of 158.66 and getting close to the key 160 level, chances of an actual intervention would heighten. Notably, given the low liquidity market conditions expected for the latter part of next week, it might be the best opportunity for the BoJ to intervene and produce a meaningful drop in dollar/yen, should the need arise.

    Likely peace deal pushes Oil lower

    The latest developments regarding the Ukraine-Russia conflict have come into the spotlight, with a possible ceasefire agreement heavily influencing the outlook for the oil market, adding to the current bearish setup of unspectacular growth and oversupply. The bears crave a retest of the October lows, not far from the five-year low of $55.60 posted in early May.

    On the other hand, failed Ukraine-Russia negotiations and renewed escalation on the battlefield – with Ukraine potentially targeting Russian oil and gas infrastructure – could result in a jump in oil prices, reversing the current bearish oil trend.

    Could peripheral currencies react to this week’s underperformance against the Dollar?

    With the aussie, the kiwi and the loonie posting sizeable losses against the dollar, next week’s calendar might offer them a chance for redemption. The Australian CPI report, the RBNZ meeting and the Canadian Q3 GDP could set the tone for the remainder of the year. Notably, the aussie appears to be best suited to take advantage of the greenback’s renewed weakness, while the kiwi remains the weakest of the bunch, as the RBNZ remains on an aggressive easing path.