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Today, the Hong Kong stock index HSI (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen) is showing downward momentum, dropping below 25,200 for the first time since mid-October.

Factors adding to selling pressure include (according to media reports):

→ Tech sector slump: Hong Kong is following the US, where investors have started offloading tech giants’ shares amid fears of an AI “bubble.” Market participants worry that current company valuations are overinflated. Even Nvidia’s strong report released this week only provided a short-term boost.

→ Geopolitics: In addition to strained trade relations between China and the US, tensions with Japan have added to uncertainty.

→ China’s economic data: Indicators continue to raise concerns despite government stimulus measures.

Technical analysis of the HSI (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen) shows that price action since late summer 2025 formed an upward channel (marked in blue).

At the same time:

→ on 5 November, the price rebounded sharply from the lower boundary, confirming strong buying interest;

→ this week (as indicated by the arrow), it failed to reverse upwards.

As a result, bears have pushed through an important support level and are attempting to consolidate their gains.

It is possible that:

→ the 25,700 level (where the channel was broken) may act as resistance;

→ bears may grow more ambitious, potentially driving the HSI (Hong Kong 50 on FXOpen) down to test key support around 24,800 in the near term.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 204.81; (P) 205.84; (R1) 206.86; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat and some consolidations would be seen. Downside should be contained above 202.31 support. On the upside, break of 206.84 temporary top will target 208.09 high. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern which might have completed at 184.35. Firm break of 208.09 high will resume the up trend from 123.94 (2020 low). Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 to 208.09 from 184.35 at 220.90. However, decisive break of 199.04 support will dampen this view and extend the corrective pattern with another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 181.00; (P) 181.50; (R1) 182.04; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat, and some consolidations would be seen. But downside should be contained above 178.80 resistance turned support. On the upside, break of 181.98 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 161.06 to 173.87 from 171.09 at 183.90. Firm break there will target 186.31 projection level next.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and should target 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 169.00) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8796; (P) 0.8818; (R1) 0.8840; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as range trading continues. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 0.8765 support will confirm short term topping. Deeper fall should then be seen back to 55 D EMA (now at 0.8740) even still as a correction. On the upside, however, sustained trading above 0.8867 fibonacci level will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target will be 100% projection of 0.8354 to 0.8752 from 0.8631 at 0.9029.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8589) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7790; (P) 1.7851; (R1) 1.7959; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 1.7934 will bring stronger rally towards 1.8160 resistance. On the downside, break of 1.7739 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.7561 support instead. Overall, EUR/AUD is extending a medium term corrective pattern and the next move will depend on the breakout from 1.7561/8160 range.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term top are seen as a corrective pattern. Sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7426) will suggest that it's correcting the whole rally from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 55 W EMA will likely bring resumption of the up trend sooner.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9281; (P) 0.9293; (R1) 0.9304; More....

Range trading continues in EUR/CHF and intraday bias remains neutral. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.9325 resistance holds. On the downside, below 0.9254 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9178 low. Break there will resume larger down trend. However, decisive break of 0.9325 will bring stronger rally back towards 0.9452 resistance.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains bearish with EUR/CHF staying well inside long term falling channel after multiple rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9377). Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Break of 0.9452 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Markets

Risk sentiment took an impressive turn for the worse during US trading. The combination of good Nvidia results published Wednesday after trading and decent US September payrolls release (119k job growth vs 53k expected) initially looked like giving investors some comfort after the recent risk-off repositioning. However, initial (equity) gains could not be maintained and soon morphed into a protracted profit-taking/sell-on-upticks pattern. After opening gains of up to 2% (Nasdaq), US indices closed between 0.84% (Dow) and 2.15% (Nasdaq) lower. For the S&P and the Nasdaq, key support (October lows) is again under heavy strain. US yields also faced conflicting drivers. The payrolls as such didn’t given any clear message on whether or not the Fed should already engage to an additional rate cut early December. However, with only about 25% of a cut priced in, there also was no reason to push (short-term) yields higher. What can’t go up, must come down. As such, a correction in asset prices isn’t a reason for the Fed to instantaneously react with additional easing. Even so, bond yields gradually declined further throughout the session and lost between 6.3 bps (5-y) and 3.3 bps (30-y). Still markets now only discount a probability of about 40 % of a December cut. Yesterday’s developments, including financial stability considerations, didn’t make things easier for the Fed. The US risk-off occurred for an important part after the European close. German yields changed less than 2 bps across the curve with the very long end slightly underperforming. (30-y +1.7 bps). FX again remained an area of relative calm in the overall turbulence. DXY at 100.15 closed little changed and stayed below the 100.25/36 resistance area. EUR/USD closed marginally lower at 1.153. USD/JPY (157.5) closed slightly higher (on yen weakness), but off the intraday highs. The risk-off also aborted the intraday rebound of sterling (EUR/GBP close at 0.882).

Asian equity markets this morning join the US risk-off move with losses of 3%+ (Taiwan, South Korea). The Japanese government unveiling its stimulus plan didn’t put any additional pressure on local bonds or the yen (see below). On FX markets, the dollar slightly underperforms (DXY 100.1, EUR/USD 1.154). UK October retail sales published this morning, were weak (-1.1% M/M). UK public sector net borrowing was sightly higher than expected. EUR/GBP rises a bit after the data (0.882). Later today, the calendar contains the EMU (and US) November PMI’s. Consensus expects EMU PMI’s to hold near last month’s levels (composite 52.5), which indicate the EMU economy is holding up relatively well. This cemented the ECB’s wait-and-see modus. Interesting to see whether last month’s relatively good news can be confirmed. After their recent rise, EMU yields probably are a bit more sensitive to a negative than to a positive surprise. US PMI’s usually are less important than the ISM’s, but especially a negative surprise (composite expected at 54.5) might cause markets to raise the expectations on a Fed rate cut. The main focus of global investors remains the equity correction. At least for now, the risk-off is no easy guarantee for real USD outperformance. In EUR/USD, the first important reference (1.1469, Nov 05 low) is still somewhat away.

News & Views

Japanese business activity picked up further in November. The composite PMI rose to 52, the joint-highest since August 2024 and carried by the services sector (53.1). While manufacturing kept struggling (48.8), output fell at the slowest pace since August and new orders fell only fractionally. Business confidence regarding future output rose to its highest since January. Anticipating capacity expansion, it helped employment increase at the strongest pace since June. This may have been related to rumours back then – facts by now – of largescale stimulus that the Japanese government was preparing. PM Takaichi’s cabinet this morning approved the biggest additional spending increase since at least 2005, barring the pandemic years (2020-22). Extra spending of JPY 17.7tn is aimed at price relief. Inflation indeed remains a hot topic, PMIs showed. Average input costs rose at the quickest rate in six months on labour costs and supplier price hikes. This led to a solid increase in selling prices. The cabinet said its spending package would push down inflation by 0.7 ppts from February to April. Prices have been rising faster than the central bank’s 2% since April 2022. October data this morning showed little signs of relief. Inflation sped up to 3% from 2.9% (headline and core ex. fresh food) and to 3.1% from 3% (core ex. fresh food and energy). The combined set of economic data and news today keeps the Bank of Japan on track to hike the policy rate by year’s end to 0.75%. Money markets remain unconvinced (+/- 15% probability). Both Japanese bonds and the yen strengthen today in a budget-related buy the rumour, sell the fact move. USD/JPY eases to 157.2, long-term bond yields drop more 6-7 bps after having hit record highs earlier this week.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1504; (P) 1.1527; (R1) 1.1551; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays mildly on the downside for retesting 1.1467 first. Firm break there will target 1.1390, and then 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1917 at 1.1252. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1655 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top is likely in place at 1.1917, just ahead of 1.2 key psychological level. As long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1328) holds, the up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2000 will carry larger bullish implications. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.93; (P) 157.41; (R1) 157.94; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations would be seen. Downside should be contained above 154.47 resistance turned support to bring another rally. Above 157.88 temporary top will resume larger rise to 161.8% projection of 146.58 to 153.26 from 149.37 at 160.17.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) has completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 restiveness turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3033; (P) 1.3078; (R1) 1.3119; More...

Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3247 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.3008 will resume the fall from 1.3787, and target 138.2% projection of 1.3787 to 1.3140 from 1.3725 at 1.2831. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3247 will suggest that fall from 1.3787 has completed as a corrective move already.

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3182) is taken as the first sign that corrective rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) has completed. Decisive break of trend line support (now at 1.2824) will solidify this case and target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 next. Meanwhile, in case of another rise, strong resistance should emerge below 1.4248 (2021 high) to cap upside to preserve the long term down trend.