Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8047; (P) 0.8062; (R1) 0.8076; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral first with current retreat. Overall, corrective pattern from 0.7828 is still extending. Above 0.8076 will target 0.8123 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.7984 support will bring deeper fall back to 0.7877 support.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6418; (P) 0.6460; (R1) 0.6485; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the downside as fall from 0.6706 resumed. Decisive break of 0.6413 cluster (38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6706 at 0.6403) will carry larger bearish implications. On the upside, above 0.6501 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Break of 0.6413 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and solidify this bearish case. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained break of 0.6713 will be a strong sign of bullish trend reversal, and pave the way to 0.6941 structural resistance for confirmation.

The short-term Elliott Wave outlook for USDJPY indicates that the cycle from the October 17 low remains in progress as a five-wave impulsive structure. From that low, wave 1 concluded at 155.04, followed by a corrective pullback in wave 2, which ended at 153.60, as illustrated in the accompanying one-hour chart. Subsequently, the pair resumed its upward trajectory in wave 3, unfolding with internal subdivisions that reflect a lower-degree five-wave impulse.

Within this advance, wave ((i)) completed at 155.44, while the corrective dip in wave ((ii)) found support at 155.04. The pair has since extended higher in wave ((iii)), which is progressing toward the 157.89 level. Currently, a pullback in wave ((iv)) is underway, serving to correct the cycle that began from the November 18 low. Once this retracement concludes, the pair is expected to resume its upward movement in wave ((v)).

In the near term, as long as the pivot at 153.60 remains intact, any dips should find support in either a 3-, 7-, or 11-swing corrective structure, paving the way for further gains. The next potential upside target lies within the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension range measured from the October 17 low. This zone spans from 159.26 to 162.75.

USDJPY 60-Minute Elliott Wave Chart From 11.21.2025

USDJPY Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qpqyd9i5oxI

Yesterday was something. We were happily sitting and watching Nvidia save the market after announcing another round of impressive results the night before. And all of a sudden – shortly after the US open – the mood started souring, and things went downhill from there. The Nasdaq, which jump-started 2% higher at the open, finished the day nearly 2.5% lower. That was really something.

Most of the news will say that AI spending and credit worries resurfaced – which is true. Oracle – the latest VIP member of OpenAI’s mega-deal circle – has now become the bellwether of AI credit risk, partly because it's spending billions financed by debt, and partly because it has weaker credit grades compared with Microsoft or Google. And Oracle saw its 5-year CDS spike past 110 bps – the highest in three years. CDS stands for credit default swaps, an instrument investors buy to hedge against the risk of default by a company or government. The higher the perceived risk of default, the higher the demand from investors, and the higher the price. I don’t want to bring this back, but Credit Suisse’s fall began in the CDS market.

Coming back to why market sentiment turned from euphoria to drama: a few reports and analyst comments on Nvidia’s own books started circulating yesterday, suggesting unease around two pressure points: swelling inventories and unusual patterns in deferred revenue. People started pointing out that Nvidia has built up large stockpiles of chips – partly because demand is shifting toward its next-generation Blackwell platform, and partly because US export controls have left billions’ worth of H20 chips potentially unsellable, forcing a multi-billion-dollar write-down.

At the same time, it’s been flagged that Nvidia has been taking in hefty pre-payments from customers and then recognising those payments as revenue too quickly, before chips are delivered. This is not illegal. It is a practice that can flatter near-term results but could leave a gap if future orders slow. And Nvidia may have done it to smooth out the avalanche of revenue it expects from Blackwell chip sales this year and next – Huang was talking about roughly $500bn in sales over that period. But together, the inventory overhang and the fast-cycling deferred revenue fuelled concerns that some of Nvidia’s blockbuster growth may be front-loaded, with future quarters more exposed than the headlines suggest.

When you dig deep enough, you’re sure to find dirt. And people only start digging when they begin to feel uncomfortable — and that level of discomfort is rising. Market opinion is becoming increasingly polarised between those who scream that this is a bubble and those who are willing to keep running. I believe this dynamic will lead to heightened volatility and big moves. It will be fun.

Also, the delayed data out of the US looks mixed and confusing. The September jobs data – released yesterday – was not only old and dusty, but also somewhat mixed. The report suggested that the US economy added nearly 120k new jobs in September, far above the 53k expected by analysts. The separate weekly report showed jobless claims falling to 220,000 – unexpectedly strong. That was the glass-half-full part. But the uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.4% and slowing wages were the glass-half-empty part – half-empty depending on whom, of course, since soft data fuels the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves and is often supportive for risk appetite.

But it didn’t yesterday. The data helped the Fed doves gain field, but the AI worries and Nvidia rumours kept the upper hand. The sharp decline in US 2-year yields and the improved chance of a December cut couldn’t talk the bulls in.

The good news is that Japanese yields are down from peak levels this morning – maybe inflation climbing to a 3-month high cooled the Bank of Japan (BoJ) doves. But it was hard to crack a smile out of SoftBank this morning: the shares tanked more than 10% and are down almost 40% since the October peak.

The crash in cryptocurrencies may be forcing investors to liquidate other positions – likely their tech bets. Bitcoin is testing the $86k level at the time of writing, and to be fair, there’s nothing to stop the fall given that we have no idea what a coin is worth – other than the value we collectively give it.

So the week will end in a worse dilemma than where it started. Nvidia couldn’t save the market. The Fed is still expected not to cut rates in December. Japanese yields kept pushing higher this week, and the 10-year JGB surpassed a critical level thought to trigger Japanese repatriation back home. That’s roughly $3.4 trillion in overseas assets held by Japanese investors – from US Treasuries to tech and EM – that could, in theory, be pulled back home if domestic yields climb further. So the bubble talk is bubbling everywhere. The valuations are high, the problem diggers are out digging.

No one can tell if or when the balloon will burst or who will take the hit. And there is no guarantee that history will repeat itself. Yet comparing today’s prices to past cycles is always interesting. Nasdaq, gold and Japanese assets show similar trends compared with the dot-com bubble, the gold boom of 1976–1982, and the Japanese bubble between 1986 and 1992. But today’s prices are not even halfway to the past peaks. Again, I can’t – and no one can – tell you whether this is going to be dot-com bubble 2.0 or Japanese asset bubble 2.0, but if history is any guide, bubbles tend to inflate well beyond what reason would suggest.

In focus today

In the euro area, November flash PMIs are due. In October, the services PMI rose to 53.0 while manufacturing reached 50.0, moving out of contraction territory. The developments suggest positive momentum for the euro area heading into Q4, and we expect the November PMIs to remain unchanged from October's.

We also receive the ECB's indicator of negotiated wages for Q3, which is heavily influenced by last year's one-off inflation bonuses. Q2 negotiated wages rose 4.0% y/y (up from 2.5% in Q1) due to base effects, but we expect a sharp decline to 2.2% y/y in Q3, as signalled by the ECB's wage tracker. Wage growth is trending lower, supporting reduced services inflation.

In Sweden, data for capacity utilisation, gross investments, inventories, and the inventory-adjusted production value index for Q3 are being released. The production value index has shown strong performance, supporting the notion that the recovery is progressing slightly better than anticipated. The inventory adjustment is unlikely to change this outlook.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

Ukraine-Russia, the 28-point peace plan proposed by the US to Ukraine seems to heavily favour Russia, requiring significant Ukrainian concessions and capping its military at 600,000 troops. Although NATO membership is ruled out, the possibility of EU accession remains open. While the plan's security guarantees are vague, additional documents reportedly include NATO-like assurances. With Ukraine facing mounting pressure on the battlefield, the likelihood of a ceasefire this year has increased, potentially further supported by robust guarantees.

In Japan, new PM Takaichi has approved a supplementary budget worth JPY21.3 trillion, representing the largest stimulus package since the pandemic. The runup to this has weighed heavy on the yen recently and pushed longer-dated JGB yields higher. Also overnight, nationwide CPI inflation excluding fresh food increased a bit to 3.0%, confirming the uptick from the Tokyo data. The weak yen will continue to push for high import prices, which adds to speculation that the Bank of Japan will soon hike rates again. We are also closing in on a situation where FX intervention to support the yen is once again on the table. This is a government decision, though, not the central bank's.

What happened yesterday

In the US, September NFP rose by 119k (cons: +50k), while August was revised down to a 4k decline from +22k. Despite stronger-than-expected NFP, the unemployment rate increased to 4.4% from 4.3%, driven by a rise in the native US-born labour force (+636k) and a decline in immigrant workers (-166k). This supply-driven increase in unemployment eased labour market tightness, triggering a dovish market reaction with UST yields slightly lower and EUR/USD rising. However, we do not view this as a strong dovish signal for the Fed or expect the trend to persist. We still expect the Fed to stay on hold in December, with markets currently pricing around 32% probability of a cut.

In Denmark, GDP grew 2.3% q/q in Q3, driven by Novo Nordisk's pharmaceutical export, excluding pharma, growth was a modest 0.7% q/q. Domestic consumption remains weak despite rising real incomes, we expect consumption to pick up eventually, driven by rising real wages, but the timing remains uncertain. Future GDP growth will depend on Novo Nordisk, while broader conditions remain stable with low unemployment and solid demand.

Consumer confidence dropped to -20.1 in November, a 2.5-year low, reflecting economic concerns and inflation fears. Despite easing food prices, Danes perceive inflation as much higher than 2%. Record household savings could drive spending if optimism improves, though current data suggests this is unlikely soon.

In the euro area, November's flash consumer confidence held steady at -14.2, slightly below expectations of -14.0. Weak confidence continues to weigh on consumption growth, despite supportive fundamentals such as rising employment, lower rates, and increasing real incomes.

In Norway, Norges Bank's Q4 expectations survey showed slightly higher inflation expectations on 12M and 2Y, which is not ideal but unlikely to shift policy given recent inflation volatility. Labour organisations raised wage expectations for this and next year, though average wage growth forecasts for 2025 (4.4%) and 2026 (3.9%) remain below Norges Bank's September MPR projections.

Equities: Global equity markets experienced a pronounced rollercoaster yesterday. After rising roughly 1.6% heading into the early afternoon, supported by the latest US data releases, sentiment abruptly reversed, sending major indices sharply lower. MSCI world ultimately closed down around 1.1%, marking an almost 3% peak-to-trough swing on the day. S&P500 ended -1.6% lower, Nasdaq -2.2% and Russell2000 -1.8%. The only sector offering resilience was consumer staples, buoyed by Walmart's strong Q3 earnings beat. Despite already elevated expectations and a PE higher than the Mag7, Walmart outperformed and offered a rare pocket of stability (Walmart +6.5%).

Overnight, Asian equity indices are down this morning except Japan due to its announced fiscal stimuli, see below.

Volatility surged as defensive sectors outperformed cyclicals in the sea of red. The VIX briefly spiked above 28 on an intraday level before settling at 26.4, which is the highest level since April. Few need to be reminded of market developments then, yet it is important to recognize the significant uncertainty from the equity markets this week. Importantly, this episode is concentrated within equity markets; in contrast, bond-market volatility actually declined yesterday, and the VIX/MOVE-dynamics have decoupled. Overall, the market dynamic was not a classic flight to safety albeit there was not a clear catalyst for the abrupt intraday reversal. Speculation continues whether this is the ongoing AI capex story or profit taking, yet this lacks hard economic fundamental justification at this stage.

FI and FX: The US September jobs report was a mixed read, but with US yields declining 4-5 bp across the curve, the interpretation was mainly to the dovish side. EUR/USD drifted slightly higher but is still lower on the week. Nvidia's earnings report supported risk sentiment initially, but roughly halfway through the US session we saw a huge intraday reversal with the Nasdaq falling 5% from its intraday highs and the S&P500 closing at a weekly low. The sudden risk-off impacted FX markets, where especially commodity-currencies felt the strain, with EUR/NOK rising sharply towards 11.80. EUR/SEK, on the other hand, saw only limited moves yesterday and remains firmly anchored at 11.00.

UK retail sales delivered a sharp downside shock in October, falling –1.1% mom, well below expectations of a modest 0.1% increase. It was the first monthly decline since May and reflected broad weakness across supermarkets, clothing, and online retailers.

Some retailers suggested that consumers deliberately postponed purchases in anticipation of Black Friday promotions, magnifying the pullback at a time when household budgets remain stretched by high interest rates and inflation.

Despite the poor monthly reading, retail sales in the three months to October were still up 1.1% compared with the prior three-month period.

Full UK retail sales release here.

Key Highlights

• USD/JPY started a fresh surge above 155.00 and 156.00.
• A bullish trend line is forming with support at 156.60 on the 4-hour chart.
• EUR/USD is again declining and might revisit 1.1450.
• GBP/USD could struggle to recover above 1.3150 and 1.3200.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US Dollar remained well-bid above 152.50 against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY started a fresh surge and cleared many hurdles near 155.00.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above 156.00, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The pair even spiked above 157.50 and might continue to rise.

On the upside, the pair faces resistance near the 158.00 zone. The first key hurdle sits at 158.40. A close above 158.40 might send the pair higher toward 159.20.

The next resistance could be 160.00. Any more gains could set the pace for a steady increase toward 162.00. On the downside, there is a key support at 156.70. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at 156.60.

The next support is 156.20, below which the pair could start a steady decline to 155.70. A close below 155.70 could start a pullback toward 155.00. Any more losses might open the doors for a test of 154.50 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour).

Looking at GBP/USD, the pair failed to recover steadily and is now at risk of another decline, possibly below the 1.3000 support.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

• US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Nov 2025 (Preliminary) – Forecast 52.0, versus 52.5 previous.
• US S&P Global Services PMI for Nov 2025 (Preliminary) – Forecast 54.8, versus 54.8 previous.
• Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for Nov 2025 – Forecast 50.5, versus 50.3 previous.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4058; (P) 1.4082; (R1) 1.4125; More...

USD/CAD's strong break of 1.4061 resistance should finally confirm that pullback from 1.4139 has completed at 1.3970. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Break of 1.4139 will resume larger rise from 1.3538 towards 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4312. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3970 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top is likely just unfolding as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low), with rise from 1.3538 as the second leg. A third leg should follow before up trend resumption. That is, range trading is set to extend for the medium term. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3886 support holds. However, firm break of 1.3886 will revive the case that fall from 1.4791 is indeed a larger scale correction.

Commodity currencies came back under pressure today as the burst of Nvidia-driven optimism evaporated almost as quickly as it arrived. After a strong start, major U.S. indexes staged a staggering reversal and closed sharply lower — marking the biggest midday turn since April. What triggered the shift remains unclear, but the message from markets was unmistakable: investors abruptly backed away from risk and rotated back into bonds.

The reversal spilled into Asian trading as well. Equity indexes in Japan and South Korea saw heavy selling, with risk sentiment deteriorating across the region. The speed of the shift suggests that investors remain highly sensitive to valuation concerns and macro uncertainty, even in the face of upbeat earnings from one of the AI sector’s bellwethers.

The deterioration in sentiment helped solidify the Dollar’s position as the strongest performer for the week so far. Despite Thursday’s stronger-than-expected NFP report, market expectations for a December Fed cut remained largely unchanged, holding around a 35% probability. Traders appear comfortable with the view that the Fed will likely stay on hold in December unless economic data deteriorates materially.

Comments from Fed officials reinforced the tone set by the October FOMC minutes. Many policymakers continued to emphasize caution, signaling reluctance to ease too quickly after delivering two consecutive rate cuts in the last two meetings. That steady drumbeat of hawkish restraint has further dampened expectations for a pre-year-end cut.

In Japan, policymakers were busy on the fiscal side. The cabinet approved a new stimulus package totaling JPY 21.3 trillion, framed around three pillars: addressing rising prices, supporting economic strength, and enhancing defense and diplomatic capabilities. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is pushing hard to bolster the slowing economy and cushion households from persistent inflation.

In the currency markets, Dollar leads the weekly performance ladder comfortably, followed by Loonie and Sterling. At the bottom are Yen, followed by Kiwi and then Aussie. Euro and Swiss Franc are sitting squarely in the middle of the pack.

In Asia, Nikkei fell -2.23%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.61%. China Shanghai SSE is down -1.96%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.93%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.029 to 1.791. Overnight, DOW fell -0.84%. S&P 500 fell -1.56%. NASDAQ fell -2.15%. 10-year yield fell -0.027 to 4.106.

BoJ's Ueda flags bigger FX pass-through to underlying inflation

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament today that Yen weakness is increasingly feeding into domestic inflation. He noted that as companies have become "more active in raising prices and wages,"  the pass-through from higher import costs to consumer inflation has intensified. That dynamic raises the risk that currency-driven price gains could influence inflation expectations and “underlying inflation,” he warned.

Ueda added that the central bank will assess a rate hike at upcoming meetings, with the focus firmly on data that sheds light on next year’s wage momentum. He emphasized said policymakers want to "spend a bit more time to confirm whether firms' active wage-setting behavior won't be disrupted,"

He added that the Bank is still gathering information from its nationwide branches and intends to incorporate both official data and its own surveys into the next policy discussions.

Japan CPI core accelerates again to 3% in October

Japan’s October CPI data showed inflation firming again, with core CPI (ex-fresh food) rising to 3.0% yoy from 2.9%, matching expectations and marking the second month of renewed acceleration. The measure has now stayed above the BoJ’s 2% target for more than three and a half years, highlighting how persistent the price backdrop has become.

Core-core CPI, which excludes both fresh food and energy, edged up from 3.0% to 3.1% yoy, while headline CPI rose from 2.9% to 3.0%.

Food excluding fresh items surged 7.2%, and utilities rose 2.2%, confirming that household-facing inflation pressures remain elevated. Rice inflation, however, continues to ease sharply, slipping to 40.2% from September’s 49.2% and offering slight relief after months of extreme gains.

Japan PMI composite rises to 52.0 as services lead and manufacturing stabilizes

Japan’s November flash PMIs offered a cautiously constructive signal for the economy, with the Composite Index rising from 51.5 to 52.0 — the best reading in three months and joint-highest since August 2024. Manufacturing activity remained in contraction but improved to 48.8 from 48.2. Services held steady at a solid 53.1.

S&P Global’s Annabel Fiddes noted that the decline in manufacturing output eased to its slowest pace since August, hinting at a gradual move toward stabilization. Business confidence also strengthened, reaching its highest level since January. That pickup in sentiment helped drive the strongest rise in employment since June, as firms look to expand capacity in anticipation of firmer activity ahead.

Inflation pressures remain a lingering concern. Input costs rose at the fastest rate in six months amid higher labor expenses and supplier price increases. In response, firms lifted selling prices at a solid pace to protect margins.

Australia's PMI composite rises to 52.6, firmer growth with manufacturing rebounds

Australia’s November flash PMIs delivered a surprisingly upbeat signal, with manufacturing jumping back into expansion at 51.6 after October’s soft 49.7. Services PMI also nudged higher from 52.5 to 52.7, lifting Composite Index from 52.1 to 52.6. The rebound in manufacturing is particularly encouraging given the sector’s recent weakness.

S&P Global’s Jingyi Pan noted that new orders in goods returned to expansion for the first time since August, helping lift overall momentum. Rising business optimism—now at a five-month high—also points to firmer activity ahead.

Price pressures, while slightly firmer than at the start of the quarter, remain "broadly muted". Employment growth slowed, but survey responses indicate this was driven partly by "hiring challenges" rather than a sharp loss in demand, particularly in the services sector.

NZ sees strong EU export growth, yet trade balance hit by China import surge

New Zealand’s October trade report showed exports and imports both rising solidly from a year earlier, yet leaving the country with a monthly deficit of NZD -1.5B. Goods exports climbed 16% yoy to NZD 6.5B, driven by broad-based strength across key markets. However, imports grew nearly as fast—up 11% to NZD 8.0B—as demand for overseas goods remained firm, particularly from China.

Export performance was strong across most major destinations. Shipments to China rose 18% yoy, while exports to Australia increased 14%. Notably, exports to the EU surged 40%—a standout gain that helped offset softer growth in other regions. The U.S. and Japan also saw moderate increases of 5.4% and 7.5% respectively.

On the import side, the story was more uneven. Imports from China surged 29% yoy and those from Australia rose 6.8%, pushing the total higher even as purchases from several other partners fell. The U.S. and South Korea both saw sizeable declines in imports, down -15% and -19% respectively, while the EU recorded a small drop of -2.6%.

Fed's Goolsbee warns against front-loading cuts amid patchy inflation data

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee struck a cautious tone overnight, warning that the central bank itself risks “front-loading too many rate cuts” before it has enough information to judge whether inflation is truly easing again. He stressed that his concern is not about the Fed’s destination — he still believes rates “are going to go down” over the medium term — but rather about the wisdom of easing too quickly in the short run given the recent inflation uptick.

Goolsbee said he remains uneasy about rising services inflation based on the data published before the government shutdown. He emphasized that the absence of fresh, reliable inflation readings has left policymakers with limited visibility, noting there are few credible private sources to bridge the gap created by missing official data.

Fed’s Paulson urges caution as every cut raises the bar for next

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said overnight that she is approaching the December FOMC “cautiously,” highlighting a delicate balance between a cooling but still-stable labor market and inflation that remains above target.

The delayed September jobs report was “encouraging,” she said, as it showed the rise in unemployment to 4.4% was largely consistent with softer labor supply, not a collapse in demand. That leaves the job market broadly in equilibrium.

Paulson stressed that the Fed must recognize how its easing cycle compounds over time. “Each rate cut raises the bar for the next cut,” she noted, because every move lowers policy closer to the point where it stops restraining the economy and begins actively stimulating it.

Regarding inflation, Paulson reiterated that tariffs are unlikely to generate sustained price pressures. The bigger driver remains moderating demand, which is helping contain inflation even as it remains above the 2% goal for what will likely be five consecutive years.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4058; (P) 1.4082; (R1) 1.4125; More...

USD/CAD's strong break of 1.4061 resistance should finally confirm that pullback from 1.4139 has completed at 1.3970. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Break of 1.4139 will resume larger rise from 1.3538 towards 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4312. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.3970 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top is likely just unfolding as a correction to up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low), with rise from 1.3538 as the second leg. A third leg should follow before up trend resumption. That is, range trading is set to extend for the medium term. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 1.3886 support holds. However, firm break of 1.3886 will revive the case that fall from 1.4791 is indeed a larger scale correction.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament today that Yen weakness is increasingly feeding into domestic inflation. He noted that as companies have become "more active in raising prices and wages," the pass-through from higher import costs to consumer inflation has intensified. That dynamic raises the risk that currency-driven price gains could influence inflation expectations and “underlying inflation,” he warned.

Ueda added that the central bank will assess a rate hike at upcoming meetings, with the focus firmly on data that sheds light on next year’s wage momentum. He emphasized said policymakers want to "spend a bit more time to confirm whether firms' active wage-setting behavior won't be disrupted,"

He added that the Bank is still gathering information from its nationwide branches and intends to incorporate both official data and its own surveys into the next policy discussions.