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The dollar index renewed its highs in almost 20 years, surpassing 104, as crucial US currency rivals one by one lost buyer support.

Suddenly the dollar was a safe haven of last resort. In 2018 and 2020, the dollar was approaching current extremes amid a total sell-off in equities and commodities. But in those years, flight to safety forced demand for the yen and franc, which is not the case this time as both ‘havens’ are at multi-year lows with equity markets falling.

The Dollar Index has been testing the upper end of its trading range for the last six years, and it now has a much higher chance of holding above that level. The previous two times the DXY got close to 104, the economy and inflation needed stimulus, not cooling as they do now.

This is a sharp reversal in attitude to the dollar, which in 2021 was often described as losing its value and leading currency status. While its relevance as a means of payment continues to be debated and questioned, its increasing rate, coupled with more attractive US government bond yields, makes the dollar an almost uncompromising choice at the moment.

European or Japanese politicians can hardly be expected to be complacent about the depreciation of their currencies, further fuelling inflation and exacerbating economic problems.

The Japanese authorities seem to have successfully talked the markets down at the end of April by stopping the yen’s decline near 130. Over the last couple of days, we have seen an intensification of policymakers and economic institutions from Continental Europe, indicating the need to raise rates soon to match the pace of tightening from the Fed.

At current levels, the dollar has found itself in a zone of turbulence, which clearly shows the scope for the GBPUSD to fluctuate over the last 24 hours. A consolidation above 104 at the end of the week would confirm to markets that the next technical stop for the DXY could be around 120, which is the high of the early part of this century.

ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said, "the three conditions of our forward guidance on interest rates are, according to my personal judgment, fulfilled. Barring unforeseen new shocks, I would think it reasonable to have entered positive territory by the end of this year."

But he's vague on the timing of the first hike, as "while I wouldn't preclude the next few Governing Council meetings, I would rather set a marker a bit further down the road." He added the ECB's push to normalize policy "will be guided by an active use of optionality and gradualism."

On asset purchases, Villeroy said "seen from today the case for continuing to press the accelerator and adding further net purchases after June is not obvious."

UK PMI Construction dropped from 59.1 to 58.2 in April, above expectation of 58.0. S&P Global said new work had the weakest rise since December 2021. Total construction output expanded at slower pace. Growth projections eased to lowest since September 2020.

Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global said: "The construction sector is moving towards a more subdued recovery phase as sharply rising energy and raw material costs hit client budgets. House building saw the greatest loss of momentum in April, with the latest expansion in activity the weakest since September 2021. Commercial and civil engineering work were the most resilient segments, supported by COVID-19 recovery spending and major infrastructure projects respectively."

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Crude oil price started a fresh increase after it formed a base above the $100 level against the US Dollar. The price broke the $105 resistance zone to move into a positive zone.

The price gained pace for a move above the $108 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is now consolidating gains above the $107.50 level. There is also a key bullish trend line with support near $107.30 on the hourly chart.

However, the price is struggling to gain pace above the $108 resistance. The next key resistance is near the $109.20 level, above which the price might rise steadily towards the $112 resistance level.

If not, the price might continue to move down towards the $106.50 support. If there is a downside break below $106.50, the price might accelerate lower to $105.00. Any more losses might call for a test of $102.00 on FXOpen.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.69; (P) 161.64; (R1) 162.80; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral first. Break of 159.59 will extend the correction from 168.40 lower. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 150.95 to 168.40 at 157.61 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 168.40 will resume larger up trend.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93 will be a long term bullish signal, and could pave the way back to 195.86 high. This will now remain the favored case as long as 150.95 support holds, even in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.84; (P) 137.21; (R1) 137.59; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 139.99 is still extending. Downside of retreat should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 124.37 to 139.99 at 134.02 to bring rebound. On the upside, firm break of 139.99 will resume larger up trend for 144.06 medium term projection level.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Such rise is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Next target will be 100% projection of 114.42 to 134.11 from 124.37 at 144.06. In any case, outlook will now remain bullish as long as 124.37 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8443; (P) 0.8494; (R1) 0.8582; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside for the moment. Current development reaffirms that 0.8201 is a medium term bottom. Further rally should be seen to 0.8697 medium term fibonacci level next. For now, outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 0.8365 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom could be in place at 0.8201, on bullish convergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. Rise from there could either be a correction to the down trend from 0.9499 (2020 high), or a medium term up trend itself. In either case, further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.9499 to 0.8201 at 0.8697. Sustained break there will target 61.8% retracement at 0.9003.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4678; (P) 1.4766; (R1) 1.4905; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral as it recovered after hitting 1.4597. On the upside, break of 1.5053 will resume the rebound from 1.4318 to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6223 to 1.4318 at 1.5495. On the downside, break of 1.4597 will bring retest of 1.4318 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5354 support turned resistance holds, larger down trend form 1.9799 (2020 high) is still expected to continue. On resumption, next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). However, firm break of 1.5354 will indicate medium term bottoming and bring stronger rally.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0336; (P) 1.0365; (R1) 1.0412; More....

EUR/CHF retreats notably after just missing 1.0400 resistance and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, Firm break of 1.0400 resistance will resume the rebound from 0.9970 to 1.0610 structural resistance. On the downside, however, break of 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.0292) will turn bias to the downside for 1.0186 support and below, to extend the corrective pattern from 1.0400 with another leg.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.0505 support turned resistance (2020 low) holds, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is expected to continue. Next target is 100% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 0.9650. However, firm break of 1.0505 will suggest medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 1.1149 structural resistance.

GBPJPY regained some ground after the BoE decision and the losses it caused yesterday, but found resistance at the 20-day simple moving average (SMA). The price plunged beneath the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward wave from 150.95 to 168.40 at 161.70 and the 40-day SMA in the daily chart.

The RSI is showing some positive signs below the neutral threshold of 50, while the MACD oscillator is heading south below its trigger line, reducing chances for a meaningful recovery in the short-term.

However, should the price close comfortably above the 38.2% Fibonacci of 161.70 traders could add more positive momentum to the pair, pushing the market up to the 20-day SMA at 163.70. The 23.6% Fibonacci of 164.24 has been strictly a strong resistance for the bulls. More advances could open the way towards the more-than-six-year high of 168.40.

In the negative scenario, the market could retest the 50.0% Fibonacci of 159.70 and the 159.50 support level. Even lower, investors could shift attention to the 61.8% Fibonacci of 157.64 and the 200-day SMA, which holds near the 155.24 barrier.

In brief, GBPJPY is in a bearish mode in the very short-term timeframe and bullish in the bigger picture.