Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 134.26; (P) 135.89; (R1) 137.78; More....

Outlook in EUR/JPY is unchanged and intraday bias remains on the upside. Sustained break above 137.49 long term resistance will target next projection level at 144.06. On the downside, though, break of 132.31 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress. Sustained break of 137.49 (2018 high) will resume larger pattern from 109.30 (2016 low). Next target will be 100% projection of 114.42 to 134.11 from 124.37 at 144.06. In any case, outlook will now remain bullish as long as 124.37 support holds, in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 160.49; (P) 162.56; (R1) 164.35; More...

A temporary top is formed at 164.61 in GBP/JPY, after hitting 61.8% projection of 136.96 to 158.19 from 150.95 at 164.07. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidations could be seen, but outlook will stay bullish as long as 158.04 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, sustained break of 164.07 target long term fibonacci level at 167.93.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress, and notable support from 55 week EMA affirms medium term bullishness. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 (2015 high) to 122.75 (2016 low) at 167.93. Sustained break there will be a long term bullish signal. This will now remain the favored case as long as 150.95 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0954; (P) 1.0977 (R1) 1.1008; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further decline is still in favor with 1.1120 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.0899 minor support will target 61.8% projection of 1.2265 to 1.1120 from 1.1494 at 1.0786. However, firm break of 1.1120 will confirm short term bottoming at 1.0805. Bias will be back on the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.1159) and above.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1494 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1494 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extending term range trading first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3045; (P) 1.3117; (R1) 1.3168; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for retest 1.2999 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4248. Next near term target is 61.8% projection of 1.3641 to 1.2999 from 1.3297 at 1.2900, and then 100% projection at 1.2655. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3297 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) has completed at 1.4248. Decline from 1.4248 could still be a corrective move, or it could be the start of a long term down trend. In either case, deeper decline would be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.2493. In any case, break of 1.3748 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9304; (P) 0.9343; (R1) 0.9385; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 0.9374 minor resistance will suggest that the pull back from 0.9459 has completed. Support from 55 day EMA will also retain near term bullishness. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 0.9459 first. Break will resume the rise from 0.8756 to 61.8% projection of 0.8756 to 0.9471 from 0.9090 at 0.9532. However, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 0.9261) will target 0.9149 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds. Larger down trend could still extend through 0.8756 (2021 low). However, firm break of 0.9471 will argue that whole down trend form 1.0342 (2016 high), has completed with waves down to 0.8756. A medium term up trend should be set up to target 1.0237/0342 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 122.26; (P) 123.68; (R1) 125.33; More...

A temporary top is formed at 125.09 in USD/JPY and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Some consolidations could be seen. But downside should be contained by 121.17 minor support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 125.09 will target 161.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 126.09, which is close to 125.85 long term resistance. However, break of 121.17 will indicate short term topping, and bring deeper pull back.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) in in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2463; (P) 1.2528; (R1) 1.2582; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with current recovery and some consolidations could be seen. But further decline is still expected as long as 1.2645 resistance holds. Corrective pattern from 1.2005 could have completed already. Firm break of 1.2448 support should confirm this bearish case and bring retest of 1.2005. On the upside, nevertheless, break of 1.2645 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.2899 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7459; (P) 0.7500; (R1) 0.7532; More...

A temporary top is formed at 0.7539 in AUD/USD, just ahead of 0.7555 resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. Further rise is expected as long as 0.7372 minor support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 0.7555 should confirm that whole corrective decline from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966. Further rise should then be seen back to retest 0.8005. However, break of 0.7372 will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7164 support instead.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

The forex markets are digesting recent moves in mixed Asian session today. Yen is recovering slightly but remains the worst performer for the week. BoJ is still trying hard to defend the 0.25% 10-year JGB yield cap. On the other hand, Euro and Dollar are the strongest ones so far. The greenback is trying to recover against commodity currencies and there is some near term upside prospect. Euro, on the other hand, is helped by its recovery against the Pound and Swiss Franc.

Technically, some attention will be paid to S&P 500 today after yesterday's 0.71% rise. SPX should be testing 4959.31 resistance soon. The correction from 4818.62 should have completed with three waves down to 4114.65 already. Firm break of 4595.31 will solidify upside momentum for retest of 4818.62 high. Such development could give Yen some renewed pressure.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.67%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.45%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.43%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.23%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0069 at 0.253. Overnight, DOW rose 0.27%. S&P 500 rose 0.71%. NASDAQ rose 1.31%. 10-year yield dropped -0.015 to 2.477.

BoJ opinions emphasize importance to maintain monetary easing

In the Summary of Opinions of the March 17-18 meeting, BoJ noted, "unlike the United States and the United Kingdom, Japan is not in a situation where the inflation rate will likely exceed the price stability target of 2 percent in a continuous manner." Hence, "it is important for the Bank to continue with monetary easing to support the economic recovery from the pandemic."

Situations surrounding Ukraine have "caused price rises of energy and other items", and this will "push down domestic demand while raising the CPI." Under these circumstances, it is "necessary to improve labor market conditions and provide stronger support for wage increases".

One member warned that "if downward pressure on economic activity and prices increases, the economy may instead be in danger of falling into deflation again. If it becomes difficult to achieve the price stability target, the Bank should act nimbly and without hesitation."

Japan FM Suzuki carefully watching bad yen weakening

Japan Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government is carefully watching the foreign exchange market to avoid "bad yen weakening". He repeated that currency stability was important. While a weak Yen is positive for exporters, it's negative for household on popping up living costs.

Yesterday, BoJ started offering four days of unlimited bond purchases to defend the 0.25% cap of 10-year JGB yield. The first offer drew no bid but JPY 64.5B in JGBs were accepted in the second offer. According to the current guidance, BoJ targets to keep 10-year JGB yield at around 0% with 25bps limit up and down.

Released from Japan, unemployment rate dropped from 2.8% to 2.7% in February, better than expectation of 2.8%.

Australia retail sales rose 1.8% mom in Feb, hitting second highest on record

Australia retail sales rose 1.8% mom to AUD 33.09B in February, well above expectation of 1.0% mom.

Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Statistics, Ben James, said February's result saw retail sales reach their second highest level on record after November 2021 and turnover continuing to regain lost momentum caused by the peak of the Omicron outbreak in January.

"Lower COVID-19 case numbers in February, alongside the further easing of restrictions over the month, saw consumer spending return to similar behaviour seen previously as states and territories come out of a COVID-19 wave," James said.

Looking ahead

Germany Gfk consumer sentiment and import prices, UK mortgage approvals and M4 money supply, will be release in European session. Later in the day, US will release house price index and consumer confidence.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7459; (P) 0.7500; (R1) 0.7532; More...

A temporary top is formed at 0.7539 in AUD/USD, just ahead of 0.7555 resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some consolidations first. Further rise is expected as long as 0.7372 minor support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 0.7555 should confirm that whole corrective decline from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966. Further rise should then be seen back to retest 0.8005. However, break of 0.7372 will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7164 support instead.

In the bigger picture, correction from 0.8006 could have completed at 0.6966, after drawing support from 0.6991. That is, up trend from 0.5506 (2020 low) might be ready to resume. Firm break of 0.8006 will target 61.8% projection of 0.5506 to 0.8006 from 0.6966 at 0.8511 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.7164 support holds.

Economic Indicators Update

Australia retail sales rose 1.8% mom to AUD 33.09B in February, well above expectation of 1.0% mom.

Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Statistics, Ben James, said February's result saw retail sales reach their second highest level on record after November 2021 and turnover continuing to regain lost momentum caused by the peak of the Omicron outbreak in January.

"Lower COVID-19 case numbers in February, alongside the further easing of restrictions over the month, saw consumer spending return to similar behaviour seen previously as states and territories come out of a COVID-19 wave," James said.

Full release here.