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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4850; (P) 1.4950; (R1) 1.5007; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is mildly on the downside for the moment. Rebound from 1.4561 could have completed at 1.5327, ahead of 1.5354 support turned resistance. Deeper fall would be seen back to retest 1.4561 low. However, break of 1.5085 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.5237, and possibly another take on 1.5354.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.9799 is seen as a long term impulsive move. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623, which is close to 1.3624 long term support (2017 low). Some support could be seen there to bring interim rebound. But overall, break of 1.5354 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8363; (P) 0.8400; (R1) 0.8424; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 0.8456 will target 0.8476 structural resistance first. Firm break there will carry larger bullish implication and target 0.8598 resistance next. However, on the downside, break of 0.8315 minor support will retain near term bearishness, and bring retest of 0.8201 low.

In the bigger picture, the down trend from 0.9499 is expected to continue as long as 0.8476 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 0.8276 support will argue that the whole up trend from 0.6935 (2015 low) has reversed. Deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9499 at 0.7917 next. However, firm break of 0.8476 will indicate medium term bottoming at least. Focus will be back on 55 week EMA (now at 0.8523) for more evidence of bullish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.26; (P) 131.59; (R1) 131.99; More....

Intraday in EUR/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. Corrective pattern from 134.11 might have completed at 124.37 already. Further rise should be seen to retest 133.13/134.11 resistance zone first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend. However, break of 130.01 minor support will mix up the near term outlook and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains neutral for now. Price actions from 134.11 are so far still seen as a corrective pattern. That is, rise from 114.42 (2020 low) is in favor to resume at a later stage. But before that, the corrective pattern from 134.11 could still extend further, sideway or downward. In the latter case, break of 124.37 will target 61.8% retracement of 114.42 to 134.11 at 121.94.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.17; (P) 156.70; (R1) 157.54; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains mildly on the upside at this point. Corrective pattern from 158.19 could have completed with three waves to 150.95 already. Further rise would be seen to 158.04/19 resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend. On the downside, below 155.43 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) should still be in progress, and notable support from 5 week EMA affirms medium term bullishness. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.75 at 167.93. This will now remain the favored case as long as 148.94 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2579; (P) 1.2613; (R1) 1.2637; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains mildly on the downside with focus on 1.2586 support. Firm break there will argue that rebound from 1.2448 has completed at 1.2899. Deeper fall would be seen back to 1.2448 support first. On the upside, however, break of 1.2697 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend from 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7378; (P) 0.7398; (R1) 0.7435; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains mildly on the upside for 0.7440 resistance. Break there will resume whole rise from 0.6966 to 0.7555 resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that whole corrective decline from 0.8006 has completed at 0.6966. On the downside, below 0.7359 minor support will turn bias neutral first. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 0.7164 support holds.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.6991 key structural support. Sustained break there will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461. Meanwhile, strong rebound from 0.6991 will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress for another rise through 0.8006 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0997; (P) 1.1058; (R1) 1.1113; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 1.0899 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 61.8% projection of 1.2265 to 1.1120 from 1.1494 at 1.0786. However, firm break of 1.1120 will confirm short term bottoming at 1.0805. Bias will be back on the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.1204) and above.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.2348 (2021 high) is expected to continue as long as 1.1494 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.0635 (2020 low) will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption and target a retest on 1.0339 (2017 low) next. Nevertheless, break of 1.1494 will maintain medium term neutral outlook, and extending term range trading first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3127; (P) 1.3162; (R1) 1.3213; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidation could be seen. On the downside, break of 1.2999 will resume larger down trend from 1.4248. However, firm break of 1.3210 should confirm short term bottoming. Stronger rise should be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3361).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) has completed at 1.4248. Decline from 1.4248 could still be a corrective move, or it could be the start of a long term down trend. In either case, deeper decline would be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.2493. In any case, break of 1.3748 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 118.62; (P) 119.01; (R1) 119.55; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend should target 100% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 121.63 next. On the downside, below 118.35 will turn intraday bias neutral again and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 116.34 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, the break of 118.65 resistance (2016 high) suggest that up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming, with rise from 101.18 (2020 low) as the third leg. Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 113.46 low. Sustained trading above 118.65 will pave the way to 125.85 (2015 high).

Overview: A rise in commodity prices, tight labour markets and high inflation expectations has lifted inflation further. However, risk of recession may soon be dampening pricing power among businesses. Freight rates are elevated but off the highs. We look for US core inflation to rise further and peak at 6.6% in March 2022 before easing to around 4.6% by end-2022. We expect euro core inflation to rise above 3% in the coming months and stay around ECB's 2% target in 2023.

Inflation expectations: Market-based long-term inflation expectations have moved higher. US household long-term inflation expectations are at a 10-year high. Euro household price expectations have stabilized at a high level.

US: CPI inflation rose to 7.9% y/y in February and we expect further increases near-term due to higher energy and food prices. Underlying price increases remain high, as CPI and CPI core rose 0.8% m/m and 0.5% m/m, respectively. Inflation expectations remain high (especially near-term) and nearly 50% of small businesses expect to hike prices in 3M. It puts a lot of pressure on the Fed to tighten policy quickly in order to get inflation back towards 2%. Early signs wage growth is peaking based on surveys.

Euro: Inflation pressures continue to build at an unrelenting pace, as higher input costs are still working their way through the pricing chain. 60% of core inflation items now have inflation rates above 2%. Headline and core inflation rose to new record highs of 5.8% and 2.7%, respectively, in February. Negotiated wage growth remained moderate in Q4 21 at 1.6% (up from 1.3% in Q3), but inflation rates well above target throughout the year raise the risk of higher inflation expectations fuelling wage adjustments down the line. We expect to see further core inflation increases ahead, keeping pressure high on ECB to normalise policy (read more in Big Picture - Headwinds to the global economy from Ukraine war and Fed tightening, 17 March).

China: Chinese PPI inflation dropped to 8.8% y/y in February further down from the peak in October at 13.5% y/y. CPI is running at 0.9% y/y held down by food prices.

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