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Daily Pivots: (S1) 128.58; (P) 128.95; (R1) 129.33; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside. Current development argues that consolidation pattern from 134.11 is extending with another leg. Deeper decline would be seen to 127.36, and possibly further to 126.58 fibonacci level. On the upside, above 130.07 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside for now as long as 131.59 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 134.11 are currently seen as a consolidation pattern only. As long as 38.2% retracement of 114.42 (2020 low) to 134.11 at 126.58 holds, up trend from 114.42 is still in favor to continue. Break of 134.11 will target long term resistance at 137.49 (2018 high). However, sustained break of 126.58 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal. In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement at 121.94, and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8332; (P) 0.8354; (R1) 0.8393; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, firm break of 0.8377 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 0.8423). Sustained trading above there will pave the way to 0.8598 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9499 (2020 high) are still seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Deeper fall could be seen as long as 0.8598 resistance holds, towards long term support at 0.8276. We'd look for bottoming signal around there to bring reversal. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.8598 will now be an early sign of medium term bottoming and bring stronger rebound. However, sustained break of 0.8276 will argue that the long term trend has reversed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5695; (P) 1.5756; (R1) 1.5867; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, break of 1.5559 will resume the fall from 1.6168 to retest 1.5250/5354 support zone. On the upside, however, break of 1.5898 will argue that pull back form 1.6168 has completed. Intraday bias will be back to the upside for 1.6168 resistance.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.5354 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.5250 low. Further rise cannot be ruled out, but even in that case, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 1.9799 to 1.5250 at 1.6988. Larger down trend from 1.9799 is in favor to extend through 1.5250 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0326; (P) 1.0354; (R1) 1.0372; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the downside at this point. Firm break of 1.0324 low will resume larger down trend from 1.1149 to 161.8% projection of 1.1149 to 1.0694 from 1.0936 at 1.0200 next. On the upside, above 1.0401 minor resistance will extend the corrective pattern with another rise leg. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.0936 to 1.0324 at 1.0558.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.0505 to 1.1149 at 1.0223. On the upside, firm break of 1.0505 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2527; (P) 1.2558; (R1) 1.2616; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains mildly on the upside for 1.2619 support turned resistance first. Firm break there will argue that whole pull back from 1.2963 has completed and bring stronger rally through 1.2812 to retest 1.2964. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.2619, followed by break of 1.2448, will retain near term bearishness for deeper decline to 1.2286 support next.

In the bigger picture, focus stays on 38.2% retracement of 1.4667 (2020 high) to 1.2005 (2021 low) at 1.3022. Sustained break there should confirm that the down trend from 1.4667 has completed after defending 1.2061 long term cluster support. Further rise would then be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 1.3650. However, rejection by 1.3022 will maintain medium term bearishness. Break of 1.2005 will resume the down trend form 1.4667 and that carries larger bearish implications too.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7155; (P) 0.7193; (R1) 0.7213; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 0.7313 will resume the rebound from 0.6992 to 0.7555 resistance. However, break of 0.7128 support will bring retest of 0.6991/2 instead.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1309; (P) 1.1335; (R1) 1.1368; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Price action from 1.1185 are seen as corrective move. Break of 1.1284 will argue that larger down trend from 1.2348 is ready to resume. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting 1.1185 low first. Also, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2265 to 1.1185 at 1.1598 eventually.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3532; (P) 1.3567; (R1) 1.3589; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Pull back from 1.3478 should be contained by 1.3489 support to bring another rally. As noted before, corrective fall from 1.4282 should have completed with three waves down to 1.3158, after hitting 1.3164 medium term fibonacci level. Above 1.3748 will target 1.3833 first. Sustained break of 1.3833 will pave the way back to retest 1.4248 high. However, break of 1.3489 will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 1.3158 support again.

In the bigger picture, strong support was seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.1409 to 1.4248 at 1.3164. The development suggests that up trend from 1.1409 (2020 low) is still in progress. On resumption, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Nevertheless sustained break of 1.3164 will argue that whole rise from 1.1409 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.2493.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9095; (P) 0.9134; (R1) 0.9161; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, firm break of 0.9084 support will argue that choppy rise from 0.8925 has completed. Fall from 0.9471 might be ready to resuming. Further decline would be seen back to 0.8925 support first. On the upside, above 0.9276 will target 0.9372 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the rebound from 0.8925 argues that fall from 0.9471 is not complete yet. It could either be the second leg of pattern from 0.8756 (2021 low), or resuming larger down trend from 1.0237 (2018 high). We'd pay attention to the downside momentum and assess the odds later. But for now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9471 resistance holds.

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.1380 support.
• It traded below a bullish trend line with support near 1.1370 on the 4-hours chart.
• GBP/USD extended decline below the 1.3620 support zone.
• The Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI could decline from 58 to 57.5 in Jan 2022 (Preliminary).

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro failed to continue higher above 1.1480 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.1400 and 1.1380 support levels.

Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair settled below the 1.1400 level and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours). Besides, there was a break below a bullish trend line with support near 1.1370.

The pair even traded below the 1.1350 support and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). It traded as low as 1.1300 and currently consolidating losses. On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near 1.1370 and 1.1380 levels.

The next major resistance is near the 1.1400 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1482 swing high to 1.1300 low.

If there is a fresh close above 1.1400, the pair could rise above 1.1450. If not, there is a risk of more downsides below the 1.1300 level. The next major support sits near the 1.1250 level.

Looking at GBP/USD, the pair gained bearish momentum after there was a clear move below the 1.3700 and 1.3650 levels.

Economic Releases

• Germany’s Manufacturing PMI for Jan 2022 (Preliminary) - Forecast 57.0, versus 57.4 previous.
• Germany’s Services PMI for Jan 2022 (Preliminary) - Forecast 48.0, versus 48.7 previous.
• Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI for Jan 2022 (Preliminary) – Forecast 57.5, versus 58.0 previous.
• Euro Zone Services PMI for Jan 2022 (Preliminary) – Forecast 52.2, versus 53.1 previous.
• UK Manufacturing PMI for Jan 2022 (Preliminary) – Forecast 57.9, versus 57.9 previous.
• UK Services PMI for Jan 2022 (Preliminary) – Forecast 55.0, versus 53.6 previous.
• US Manufacturing PMI for Jan 2022 (Preliminary) – Forecast 56.8, versus 57.7 previous.
• US Services PMI for Jan 2022 (Preliminary) – Forecast 55.0, versus 57.6 previous.