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Market Overview

The crypto market lost just over 1% in 24 hours to $3.08T, falling back to the consolidation levels of late November. Attempts to shake up the market at the beginning of this month were unsuccessful for both bulls and bears. Excluding this impulse, the market has been treading water for almost two weeks, hovering around the 23.6% correction rebound line from the October-November decline. Such a shallow rebound could be a sign of a strong bear market, but this will only be confirmed if November’s lows of $2.73T are updated.

Bitcoin is trading near $90K, having crossed this level for the fifth consecutive day. An upward trend line can be drawn through the lows of late November, but BTC is now trading dangerously close to this line. At the same time, horizontal resistance has formed in the $92K area, bringing the positions of bulls and bears closer together over time and promising a decisive battle by the end of this week. It could not only be the last significant battle of the year but also determine the trend for the coming months.

News Background

Short positions on Bitcoin have recorded their largest outflow since March 2025, when the price of BTC was near its lows. Investors likely believe that the current surge in negative sentiment has bottomed out, according to CoinShares.

According to Glassnode, the reserves of long-term Bitcoin holders fell to a cyclical low in November. This marks the end of the spot sell-offs that have hindered market growth throughout 2025.

Ethereum exchange reserves have fallen to record lows, which could signal an imminent supply crisis, according to CryptoQuant. Since July 2025, the indicator has fallen by about 20%.

The largest American investment company, BlackRock, has applied with the SEC to register an ETF that will allow investors to earn income from staking Ethereum without directly owning the cryptocurrency.

Strategy has increased its weekly Bitcoin purchases to their highest level since July. The company bought 10,624 BTC ($963 million) last week at an average price of $90,615 per coin. Strategy now owns 660,624 BTC, purchased for $49.3 billion at an average price of $74,696 per Bitcoin.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1613; (P) 1.1643; (R1) 1.1668; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidations below 1.1681 temporary top. Further rally is in favor with 1.1590 minor support intact. Corrective fall from 1.1917 could have completed at 1.1467. Above 1.1681 will target 1.1727 resistance first. Firm break there will solidify this case and bring retest of 1.1917 high. However, break of 1.1590 will revive near term bearishness, and bring retest of 1.1467 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1346) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.22; (P) 155.61; (R1) 156.31; More...

USD/JPY's breach of 156.17 resistance suggests that corrective pullback from 157.88 has completed at 154.33. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 157.88 high. Firm break there will resume larger rally to 158.85 structural resistance. For now, risk will stays mildly on the upside as long as 154.33 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) could have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94 high. Decisive break of 158.85 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 150.90 resistance turned support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3303; (P) 1.3325; (R1) 1.3344; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidations below 1.3384 temporary top. With 1.3178 support intact, further rally is still expected. As noted before, fall from 1.3787 should have completed as a three-wave correction to 1.3008. On the upside, above 1.3384 will target 1.3470 resistance. Decisive break there will bring retest of 1.3787 high.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.3787 is merely a corrective move, and larger rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 1.3787 will target 1.4248 (2021 high) key structural resistance. This will remain the favored case as long as target 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 holds, in case of another fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8035; (P) 0.8061; (R1) 0.8093; More…

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains mildly on the upside for 0.8101 and then 0.8123 resistance. . As noted before, price actions from 0.7828 are developing into a corrective pattern. Firm break of 0.8123 will target 138.2% projection of 0.7828 to 0.8075 from 0.7877 at 0.7812. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.7990 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low). Long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6610; (P) 0.6630; (R1) 0.6644; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the upside at this point. Rise from 0.6420 is in progress for retesting 0.6706 high. Decisive break there will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910. On the downside, below 0.6604 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, the break of multi-year falling trend line resistance suggests that rise from 0.5913 is possibly reversing whole down trend from 08006 (2021 high). Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 will solidify this case, and bring further rally to 61.8% retracement at 0.7206. On the downside, however, firm break of 0.6420 support will suggest rejection by 0.6713 and retain medium term bearishness.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3819; (P) 1.3840; (R1) 1.3879; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with current recovery, and more consolidations could be seen above 1.3798 temporary low. Further decline is expected as long as 1.3936 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, below 1.3798 will resume the fall from 1.4139 to 61.8% retracement of 1.3538 to 1.4139 at 1.3768. Firm break there will argue that whole decline form 1.4791 might be ready to resume through 1.3538 low.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 1.4791 is developing into a deeper, larger scale correction. In the less bearish case, it's just correcting the rise from 1.2005 (2021 low). But even so, break of 1.3538 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.4139 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9368; (P) 0.9382; (R1) 0.9404; More....

EUR/CHF's rally from 0.9178 is in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside for 0.9452 key structural resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 0.9325 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, EUR/CHF has breached long term falling channel resistance as the rebound from 0.9278 extends. Considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9372) will indicate medium term bottoming, and suggests that it's already in larger scale rebound. Further break of 0.9452 resistance will bring stronger medium term rally towards 0.9228 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 W EMA will retain bearishness for another fall through 0.9278 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8722; (P) 0.8738; (R1) 0.8750; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral for consolidations and with 0.8800 resistance intact, further decline is expected. Fall from 0.8863 should at least be a correction to the up trend from 0.8221, with risk of bearish reversal. Below 0.8720 will target 0.8631 cluster (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618).

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8600) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7499; (P) 1.7565; (R1) 1.7599; More...

No change in EUR/AUD"s outlook and intraday bias stays on the downside. Fall from 1.8160 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.8554. Deeper decline should be seen to 100% projection of 1.8160 to 1.7561 from 1.7976 at 1.7377. Firm break there will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 17148. On the upside, above 1.7627 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.7456) holds, price actions from 1.8554 could still be a correction to rise from 1.5963 only. However, sustained break of the EMA will argue that it's already correcting the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). In this case, deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922.