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EUR/USD stayed in consolidations below 1.6300 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rise is expected as long as 1.1372 support holds. Firm break of 1.1630 will resume the rise from 1.1076 and target 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.

In the long term picture, a long term bottom should be in place already at 0.9534, on bullish convergence condition in M MACD. Rise from there could be a corrective bounce or the start of an up trend. In either case, next target is 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019.

USD/JPY's price action from 139.87 could be a correction to fall from 158.86, or reversing whole decline. In either case, further rally is in favor as long as 142.79 support holds. Initial bias stays on the upside this week, and break of 146.27 will target 148.64 resistance next. On the downside, below 145.11 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

In the long term picture, it's still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 137.72) and even below.

GBP/USD's extended decline from 1.3631 last week confirmed short term topping. But as a temporary low was formed at 1.3381, initial bias remains neutral this week first. Near term risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3631 resistance holds. Below 1.3381 will extend the correction to 38.2% retracement of 1.2076 to 1.3631 at 1.3278.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.2923) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

In the long term picture, for now, price actions from 1.0351 (2022 low) are still seen as a corrective pattern to the long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. However, firm break of 1.4248 resistance (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480) will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.

USD/CHF's recovery from 0.8054 extended higher last week but upside was capped below 0.8247 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first and further fall is expected. On the downside, below 0.8054 will bring retest of 0.8038 low first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9200 to 0.8038 from 0.8475 at 0.7757. Nevertheless, firm break of 0.8247 will extend the corrective pattern from 0.8038 with another rising leg, and target 0.8475 resistance again.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8675) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It's uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the down trend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9200 resistance holds. Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.

AUD/USD gyrated lower last week but momentum has been weak. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a short term top could be formed at 0.6551. On the downside, firm break of 0.6455 support will bring deeper decline to 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6551 at 0.6307, even as a correction. Nevertheless, break of 0.6551 will resume the rally from 0.5913 instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that down trend form 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Rebound from 0.5913 is seen as a corrective move. While stronger rally cannot be ruled out, outlook will remain bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713 holds. Nevertheless, considering bullish convergence condition in W MACD, even in case of another fall through 0.5913, downside should be contained above 0.5506 (2020 low).

In the long term picture, fall from 0.8006 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal. On the upside, firm break of 0.6941 will argue that the third leg has already started back to 0.8006.

USD/CAD rebounded after edging lower to 1.3538 last week. Considering bullish convergence condition in D MACD, a short term bottom could be in place. Firm break of 1.3749 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.4014 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3538 at 1.4017), as a corrective move. nevertheless, break of 1.3633 minor support will bring retest of 1.3538 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

In the long term picture, as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3494) holds, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has already completed, with rise from 1.2005 to 1.4791 as the fifth wave. 1.4791 would then be seen as a long term top and deeper medium term down trend should then follow.

GBP/JPY edged higher to 196.38 last week but quickly retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rally is expected as long as 193.75 support holds. Firm break of 196.38 will resume the whole rally from 184.35 to 199.79 resistance. Break there will target 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 208.09 are seen as a correction to rally from 123.94 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 123.94 to 208.09 at 175.94 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 175.94 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

In the longer term picture, while a medium term top was formed at 208.09 (2024 high), it's still early to conclude that the up trend from 122.75 (2016 low) has completed. But GBP/JPY is at least in a medium term corrective phase, with risk of correction to 55 M EMA (now at 176.62).

EUR/JPY's rally continued last week after interim retreat and there is no sign of topping yet. Initial bias is on the upside this week for 100% projection of 154.77 to 164.16 from 161.06 at 170.45. For now, near term outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 166.01 support holds, even in case of another retreat.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to up trend from 114.42 (2020 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 to contain downside. However, sustained break of 152.11 will bring deeper fall even still as a correction.

In the long term picture, while 175.41 is at least a medium term top, it's still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 150.56).

EUR/GBP's rebound from 0.8354 continued last week despite interim retreat. With late break of 0.8563 temporary top, initial bias is back on the upside this week for 61.8% retracement of 0.8737 to 0.8354 at 0.8591. Firm break there will pave the way to 0.8373 resistance. On the downside, below 0.8524 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8221 medium term bottom are merely forming a corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high). Nevertheless, there is no clear momentum to break through 0.8201 key support (2022 low) yet. Hence, range trading is expected between 0.8221/8737 for now.

In the long term picture, price action from 0.9499 (2020 high) is seen as part of the long term range pattern from 0.9799 (2008 high). Range trading should continue between 0.8201 and 0.9499, until there is clear signal of imminent breakout.

EUR/AUD rebounded after retreating to 1.7626 last week but failed to break through 1.7880 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Overall development suggests that fall from 1.8554 has completed as a corrective move at 1.7245. On the upside, break of 1.7880 will resume the rise from there to 61.8% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.7245 at 1.8054. Firm break there will pave the way to 1.8554. However, break of 1.7626 will dampen this bullish case and turn focus back to 1.7459 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.8554 medium term are currently seen as a corrective pattern. While deeper pullback might be seen, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 (2022 low) to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. Up trend from 1.4281 is expected to resume at a later stage.

In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6303) holds, this second leg could still extend higher.