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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

ActionForex

Range trading continues in USD/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 159.54 will extend the fall from 160.58 short term top to 38.2% retracement of 155.01 to 160.58 at 158.45. However, decisive break of 160.71 will confirm up trend resumption. That should push USD/JPY through 161.94 to 100% projection of 152.25 to 160.71 from 155.01 at 163.47 next.

In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 155.13) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral as sideway trading continues. Risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 1.3508 resistance holds. Firm break of 1.3300 will resume the decline from 1.3657 to 1.3158 support next. However, break of 1.3508 will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3657 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3867 are a corrective pattern within the broader up trend from 1.0351 (2022 low). With 1.3008 support intact, medium term bullishness is maintained and break of 1.3867 is in favor for a later stage, towards 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high). However, firm break of 1.3008 will at least bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524, with increased risk of bearish reversal.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 0.8012. Further rise is expected with 0.7906 resistance turned support intact. Above 0.8012 will bring retest 0f 0.8041 high. Firm break there will resume the rise from 0.7603 and target 100% projection 0.7603 to 0.841 from 0.7600 at 0.8198 next. However, sustained break break of 0.7906 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7795 support instead.

In the bigger picture, while a medium term bottom was formed at 0.7603, it's still early to call for bullish trend reversal. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 (2025 high) to 0.7603 at 0.8213 holds, the larger down trend could still continue through 0.7603 at a later stage. However, firm break of 0.7603 will argue that the trend has reversed and turn focus to 0.8332 support turned resistance (2023 low) for confirmation.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the upside at this point. Fall from 0.7277 might have completed as a three wave correction at 0.6977. Further rise would be seen to 0.7200 resistance. On the downside, though, break of 0.6977 will resume the fall towards 0.6832 support.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, a medium term top could be formed at 0.7277 after failing to sustain above 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 (2021 high) to 0.5913 (2024 low) at 0.7206). Deeper fall could be seen to 38.2% retracement of 5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 as a correction. But strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral at this point. Further rise is expected as long as 1.3897 support holds. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4290 next. However, firm break of 1.3897 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Rejection by 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will keep the decline intact, and bring another fall through 1.3480 at a later stage. However, firm break of 1.3981 will argue that the decline has completed, and set up further rise back to retest 1.4791 instead.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 215.59 will resume the rise from 210.43 to retest 216.58 high. On the downside, break of 212.90 will resume the fall from 215.59 to 211.23 support first.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The long term up trend could still extend to 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90 on resumption. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 207.11) will argue that it's already in medium term down trend for 184.35 support.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral first. On the upside, firm break of 186.18 will resume the rebound from 182.01 to retest 187.93 high. On the downside, break of 183.95 will resume the fall from 186.18 to 182.01 support and below.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 179.23) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Range trading continues in EUR/GBP and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8610 support will revive the case of bearish trend reversal. However, on the upside, break of 0.8680 resistance will bring stronger rebound back to 0.8728 instead.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullishness. Rise from 0.8221 should resume through 0.8863 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8618 will confirm that whole rise from 0.8221 has completed at 0.8863. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidations below 1.6156. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 1.6334 minor support holds. Above 1.6516 will resume the rebound from 1.6108, and target 1.6842 resistance. However, firm break of 1.6334 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.6108/6186 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6842 resistance holds. Fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). However, firm break of 1.6842 should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rally.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

EUR/CHF is still bounded in consolidations below 0.9234 Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Outlook is unchanged that corrective fall from 0.9264 should have completed at 0.9094. Above 0.9234 will bring retest of 0.9264 first. Firm break there will resume the rally from 0.8979 to 100% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9379. Risk will now stay on the upside as long as 0.9155 support holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) could still be in progress. Firm break of 0.8979 will confirm down trend resumption. However, decisive break of 0.9394 will be an important sign of medium term bullish reversal.