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Intraday bias in EUR/JPY is mildly on the upside with breach of 186.18 resistance. Rebound from 182.01 is resuming and would target a retest on 187.93 high. On the downside, below 185.43 minor support will turn bias neutral again. Further break of 183.95 will target 182.01 support and below.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 179.23) will argue that it's already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as sideway trading is in progress On the downside, decisive break of 0.8610 support will revive the case of bearish trend reversal. However, on the upside, break of 0.8680 resistance will bring stronger rebound back to 0.8728 instead.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 38.2% retracement of 0.8821 to 0.8863 at 0.8618. Strong rebound from there will retain medium term bullishness. Rise from 0.8221 should resume through 0.8863 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.8618 will confirm that whole rise from 0.8221 has completed at 0.8863. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466 at least.

EUR/AUD recovered mildly today as consolidation from 1.6156 continues. Intraday bias stays neutral and further rise will remain in favor as long as 1.6334 minor support holds. Above 1.6516 will resume the rebound from 1.6108, and target 1.6842 resistance. However, firm break of 1.6334 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.6108/6186 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6842 resistance holds. Fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). However, firm break of 1.6842 should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rally.

EUR/CHF's retreat form 0.9234 extended lower today, but downside is contained well above 0.9155 support. Intraday bias remains neutral and further rally is still in favor. On the upside, above 0.9234 will bring retest of 0.9264 first. Firm break there will resume the rally from 0.8979 to 100% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9379. However, decisive break of 0.9155 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9094 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) could still be in progress. Firm break of 0.8979 will confirm down trend resumption. However, decisive break of 0.9394 will be an important sign of medium term bullish reversal.

On June 16, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.0% (7-1 vote) and confirmed a gradual taper of government bond purchases, settling at a "cruising" pace of ¥2 trillion monthly from April 2027. The message is clear: normalisation continues, as inflation risks remain skewed to the upside of the 2% target.

For the yen, the medium-term picture remains constructive, though not without friction — one dissenter warned that Middle East tensions threaten output and jobs more than prices. The BoJ has also built itself a safety net, ready to intervene should yields spike unexpectedly.

Technical Analysis

The rate hike didn’t boost the yen. Still, USD/JPY continues to struggle against the formidable resistance at 160.00, a level that carries weight both psychologically and technically. This zone has already rejected multiple advances throughout 2026, and price now approaches it once again — setting the stage for a decisive test.

Bullish scenario: a confirmed break above 160.00-161.00 would need to be followed by a retest on the 4H chart, with a subsequent break of the highs that triggered the initial move — only then would the breakout gain real confirmation, opening the path toward 162.00 and a retest of the 2024 highs. Without this follow-through, the pair may continue to struggle beneath this psychological ceiling, capped by repeated rejection.

Bearish scenario: early confirmation of a reversal would come from a break of the first key support at 159.60-159.80, where the 200-period EMA on the 4H chart is already being tested, much as it has held in the past. A more decisive support could be at 157.80-158.00; a break below this level could trigger a sharper decline. Reinforcing the bearish case is a notable RSI divergence since 18 May, with lower highs on the oscillator against higher highs on price — a classic signal of fading bullish momentum.

The line in the sand is drawn at 160.00-161.00: whoever crosses it first, dollar or yen, will likely set the tone for the months ahead.

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• Gold is eagerly awaiting the central bank’s decision.
• The rebound in gold prices is due to weaker headwinds.

The US dollar continues to retreat as geopolitical risks ease, and concerns about Kevin Warsh’s dovish rhetoric subside. Donald Trump insists that the agreement with Iran is a done deal, which has pushed Brent below $80 a barrel and triggered a recovery rally in US stock indices.

At the same time, fears of a further surge in inflation are receding, as reflected in Treasury bond yields. The precious metal is shifting its focus from the Middle East conflict to monetary policy, re-establishing its correlation with bond prices. The enigmatic nature of Warsh is fuelling fears that the outcome of the meeting could lay the foundations for a long-term weakening of the dollar.

The new chair is an advocate of flexibility at the Fed. He believes the central bank should not paint itself into a corner with forecasts when the future could change significantly. Indeed, by the end of 2025, investors expected interest rates to fall due to a weak labour market and a gradual slowdown in inflation. However, employment is currently growing at its fastest pace since 2023, while consumer prices have surged to 4.2%.

The FOMC’s previous forecasts are out of touch with reality. They assume a cut in interest rates. Investors are now keen to know how many Committee members will signal a rate rise in their updated projections. This conundrum, coupled with the change in wording suggesting that the next step will be a loosening of monetary policy, is the key takeaway from the Fed’s June meeting.

Gold is placing its fate in the hands of the central bank, as the future trajectory of the dollar and US Treasury bond yields depends on the central bank’s decision. The most likely scenario is that the Fed will maintain a ‘wait-and-see’ stance, allowing the precious metal to focus on the fallout from the end of the conflict in the Middle East.

Gold’s rebound from its autumn 2025 low reflects waning headwinds, including the greenback’s strength amid escalating geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices and Treasury yields, as well as reduced demand for bullion from central banks and for ETFs from investors.

The FxPro Analyst Team

Eurozone inflation was finalized at 3.2% yoy in May, up from 3.0% yoy in April, while core inflation accelerated more sharply from 2.2% yoy to 2.6% yoy. The data confirm that underlying price pressures strengthened across the bloc during the month, reinforcing concerns that inflation is becoming more broad-based despite easing geopolitical tensions and falling oil prices in recent weeks.

Services was the largest contributor to inflation, adding 1.61 percentage points to the headline rate. Energy contributed a further 0.98 percentage points, while food, alcohol and tobacco added 0.36 percentage points and non-energy industrial goods contributed 0.23 percentage points. The figures suggest that inflation is no longer solely an energy story, with domestic services prices continuing to exert significant upward pressure on overall consumer prices.

Across the wider European Union, annual inflation was finalized at 3.3% yoy, up from 3.2% yoy in April. However, inflation trends were highly uneven across member states. Sweden recorded the lowest annual rate at 1.1%, followed by Denmark and Czechia at 1.8%. At the other end of the spectrum, Romania posted inflation of 9.7%, while Bulgaria and Lithuania recorded 6.3% and 5.1% respectively. Compared with April, inflation fell in eleven member states but increased in sixteen.

Contributions to Eurozone Inflation

Full Eurozone CPI final release here.

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has remained steady at $2.26T since Tuesday’s close. Interestingly, such a lull is not being observed in the foreign exchange or equity markets, which refutes the notion of a lull ahead of the new Fed Chair’s first meeting. It appears the recovery rally has lost momentum near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and cryptocurrency investors are awaiting fresh signals. Should the market reverse lower, it could return to the $2T range fairly quickly.

Bitcoin has pulled back to $65.5K and is at the centre of the upward trading range within which the rally has been unfolding over the last 11 days. For now, price action fits a relatively positive scenario, although the rapid loss of recovery momentum is noteworthy.

News Background

Experts are divided on whether Bitcoin has bottomed out. However, for long-term investors, the exact entry point is not decisive if the asset is expected to rise to $100K or higher, according to Bitwise.

Bitcoin’s recurring cycles of boom and bust are a perfectly normal phenomenon that should not undermine investors’ confidence in the long-term growth potential of the first cryptocurrency, said Brian Armstrong, CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase.

According to Arkham, the US’s largest miner, MARA Holdings, acquired 1,000 BTC at an average price of $66.7K per coin. The US mining company’s Bitcoin holdings have reached 36,303 BTC. In the first quarter, MARA sold 20,880 BTC for $1.5 billion at an average price of $70.1K.

Publicly listed Bitcoin miners are increasingly transforming their data centres into infrastructure for artificial intelligence (AI). This trend is gaining momentum amid rising capital expenditure in the AI sector and demand for sites with access to electricity.

Strategy founder Michael Saylor has presented a five-tier model of the Bitcoin economy. In his view, Bitcoin will evolve from a simple asset into the foundation of the global financial architecture.

BlackRock has launched a Bitcoin ETF with an options strategy and “potentially lower volatility”. If BTC falls, options income may partially offset losses, while during a sideways trend or moderate growth, it may improve returns. However, a sharp rise in the asset’s price will limit its potential.

The FxPro Analyst Team

Sterling came under modest pressure after UK inflation data undershot expectations in May, but the report is unlikely to materially alter the Bank of England's policy outlook or the broader bullish case for some GBP crosses. Headline CPI held steady at 2.8% yoy, below expectations for a rise to 3.0% yoy, while monthly inflation slowed sharply from 0.7% mom to 0.2% mom. Core CPI edged up from 2.5% yoy to 2.6% yoy, but also came in below consensus forecasts of 2.7% yoy.

The softer-than-expected headline figures should ease concerns that inflation is reaccelerating more aggressively than policymakers anticipated. However, the details of the report were less reassuring. Services inflation, a key gauge of domestic price pressures watched closely by the BoE, accelerated sharply from 3.2% yoy to 3.7% yoy. While goods inflation slowed from 2.4% yoy to 2.0% yoy, the rise in services prices suggests underlying inflation pressures linked to wages and labor costs remain persistent.

As a result, the data are unlikely to change the outcome of Thursday's BoE meeting. Policymakers are widely expected to leave Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%, and the latest inflation figures probably do little to alter the balance within the Monetary Policy Committee. Hawks will continue to point to elevated services inflation as evidence that inflation risks remain skewed to the upside. More cautious members will focus on signs of slowing economic activity and softer headline inflation. The report may influence the tone of the debate, but it is unlikely to shift votes.

That distinction is important for Sterling. While today's inflation miss may slow the currency's recent rally, it does not materially undermine expectations that the BoE could still tighten policy later this year if services inflation remains elevated. Markets may push back the timing of such a move, but the broader tightening bias remains intact.

This backdrop continues to favor GBP/CAD. The policy gap between the BoE and Bank of Canada remains substantial, with UK rates at 3.75% compared with Canada's 2.25%. Moreover, falling oil prices continue to weigh on the Canadian Dollar, while markets expect the BoC to remain on hold through year-end. Together, those factors provide a supportive fundamental backdrop for further GBP/CAD strength.

Technically, GBP/CAD's rally from 1.8017 remains intact. A retest of the 1.8912 high should be seen next. A break there would target 100% projection of 1.8017 to 1.8694 from 1.8299 at 1.8976. Near-term outlook should remain bullish as long as support at 1.8554 holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, GBP/CAD found strong support from the rising channel that has guided price action since late 2023. The structure suggests the broader up trend from 1.4069 (2022 low) is still unfolding. A decisive break above 1.8912 would strengthen the case for a medium-term move toward 61.8% projection of 1.6355 to 1.8912 from 1.8017 at 1.9597.

The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf following the announcement of a ceasefire between the US and Iran on 14 June remains the main factor weighing on the oil market in recent days. Market participants are increasingly pricing in a scenario of a resumption of full-scale supplies through the Strait of Hormuz in the near future. This has led to a significant reduction in the geopolitical risk premium that previously supported prices at relatively elevated levels. In addition, expectations of higher supply from major producers are prompting profit-taking on long positions accumulated during the previous rally.

Technical Picture

The medium-term uptrend in XBRUSD, which had been forming on the D1 timeframe since mid-December 2025, was broken on 25 May following a downside gap. After this, the price broke below the lower boundary of the market profile and significantly accelerated its downward movement. If the momentum continues at the same pace, the green support around $70,000 could act as the next downside reference point. In the event of a corrective rebound, two major obstacles would be the lower boundary of the profile at $95,100 and the point of control (POC) zone at $103,600–$104,000. The red resistance level at $120,500 may come into play if prices rise above the upper boundary of the profile at $113,000.

RSI + MAs shows readings of 28, 38 and 43. The moving averages are coloured red, while the RSI curve has entered oversold territory. This configuration suggests that in the near term the market may remain in a state of heightened uncertainty, with volatility likely to increase significantly. Vertical volume has not yet shown any notable anomalies.

Key Takeaways

The current market structure indicates a prevailing downside bias following the break of the medium-term uptrend. Against the backdrop of expectations of additional oil supply returning to the market, this technical picture adds to short-term uncertainty.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.