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Key Highlights

• Gold started a fresh decline below the $4,650 support.
• A connecting bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $4,610 on the 4-hour chart.
• WTI Crude Oil regained traction and climbed above $105.
• EUR/USD failed to stay above 1.1775 and corrected gains.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold failed to surpass $4,900 and trimmed gains against the US Dollar. The price dipped below $4,750 and $4,650 to enter a bearish zone.

The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price even declined below $4,600, the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours), and the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours). A low was formed at $4,500, and the price is now consolidating losses.

On the upside, immediate resistance is $4,550. The next major resistance sits near $4,600. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,610.

The main resistance could be near the trend line at $4,650. A clear move above $4,650 could open the doors for more upside. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward $4,740 or even $4,780.

If there is another decline, Gold might find bids near the $4,500 level. The first major support sits at $4,320. The next support could be $4,200, below which the price might slide to $4,150. The main support sits at $4,000. Any more losses might call for a test of $3,800 or even $3,650 in the coming days.

Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price regained bullish momentum above $100 and might continue to rise in the short term.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

• US ISM Services Index for April 2026 – Forecast 53.7, versus 54.0 previous.
• US New Home Sales for Feb 2026 (MoM) – Forecast -0.4% versus -17.6% previous.

Gold resumed its near-term slide as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated sharply, after Iran struck multiple vessels and set a UAE oil port ablaze. The developments triggered a fresh surge in oil prices and lifted the Dollar on safe-haven demand, reinforcing downside pressure on precious metals. Focus now shifts to the 4,400 Fibonacci support level, with a decisive break likely to open the path toward the 4,000 psychological handle.

The escalation followed the launch of the U.S. naval operation “Project Freedom,” aimed at escorting merchant ships through the Strait. Rather than easing tensions, the move appears to have provoked a direct response from Iran, intensifying maritime confrontation. With expectations growing that shipping disruptions could persist until August or beyond, markets are increasingly pricing in a prolonged supply shock.

Technically, the near term decline in Gold has resumed after a brief recovery, with rejection at 55 4H EMA (now at 4634.82) reinforcing bearish bias. Deeper fall is expected to 61.8% retracement of 4,098.45 to 4,889.24 at 4,400.53. Decisive break below this level would likely trigger an acceleration of the decline, opening the path toward a retest of 4,098.45 low and potentially extending toward 4,000 psychological level.

On the upside, a break above 4,660.21 would be needed to signal that a temporary bottom is in place. Until then, the bias remains to the downside, particularly if oil prices stay elevated and geopolitical tensions continue to drive inflation expectations higher.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned at a conference that the Fund’s baseline outlook is no longer applicable as the Middle East conflict continues. The IMF’s “reference scenario,” which assumed a short-lived war and projected global growth of 3.1% with inflation at 4.4%, is now “further and further behind in the rear-view mirror,” she said.

According to Georgieva, the global economy has effectively shifted into the IMF’s “adverse scenario,” driven by prolonged conflict, oil prices around or above $100 per barrel, and rising inflationary pressures. Under this scenario, global growth slows to 2.5% in 2026, while headline inflation rises to 5.4%, reflecting a more challenging macro environment.

She also warned of significantly worse outcomes if the conflict persists into 2027, particularly if oil prices approach $125. In such a case, inflation would rise further, with a growing risk that inflation expectations become de-anchored—posing a more persistent threat to economic stability.

The IMF had outlined last month three possible paths for the global economy—reference, adverse, and severe scenarios—but current developments suggest a clear shift away from the baseline. With downside risks intensifying, the global outlook is increasingly defined by slower growth and higher inflation.

New York Fed President John Williams said in a speech monetary policy is “well positioned” to navigate the current environment, signaling no urgency for further tightening even as uncertainty rises due to the Middle East conflict.

Williams emphasized that the Fed is not in a position to offer strong forward guidance, noting that “the future is difficult to see” and risks to both inflation and growth have increased. He added that he does not see any data at present that would justify a rate hike in the near term.

At the same time, Williams maintained that rates will likely need to be lowered eventually as inflation moves back toward the 2% target. He expects inflation to remain around 3% this year, pressured by tariffs and energy costs, before easing, while warning that oil price risks could still surprise to the upside.

On the broader outlook, Williams expects growth of 2.0%–2.25% this year with a stable labor market. While acknowledging recent dissent within the Fed, he downplayed divisions. “I would say there was far more agreement about where policy is today”, he added.

• Silver and Gold can't sustain their previous momentum, seeing renewed bearish flows amid tensions resurfacing
• Their inverted correlation to Oil and the US Dollar remains strong, with the two bouncing back to start the week
• Intraday timeframe analysis for XAG/USD (Silver) and XAU/USD (Gold)

Today, the Middle East conflict has entered yet another dangerous stage.

Although this is the third week of the ceasefire, many now doubt it will hold. In the last 24 hours, Iran reportedly attacked several merchant ships and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz; The conflict has also widened, with direct attacks on the United Arab Emirates and major incidents in Abu Dhabi and Dubai.

With these new tensions, the strong inverse relationship between precious metals, crude oil, and the US Dollar picks up again. Both the US Dollar and Oil prices have jumped at the start of the week, putting extra pressure on the metals market.

Gold vs WTI Crude Inverse Correlation – Source: TradingView. May 4, 2026

Metals are once again trading more like risk-on assets. Unlike in the past, gold is not acting as a safe haven. Instead, as the conflict continues, the yellow metal along with its precious mates, have seen a steady decline throughout the war.

The asset class is falling sharply amid today's worsening sentiment: Silver is down 5% on the session session, Platinum is now trading well below $2,000, and Copper prices have fallen far from their recent $6 highs.

Daily Metals Performance. Courtesy of Finviz – May 4, 2026

Are precious metals no longer seen as safe havens?

This ongoing war is serving as a crucial test of that historic Market assumption. However, to console aficionados of the alternative asset class, the ultimate flight-to-quality assets—government bonds (US Treasuries particularly)—are also getting heavily battered by these flows.

At the heart of these moves are worries about inflation.

High oil prices and supply chain problems are pushing interest rates higher for longer. While metals are falling faster than stocks right now, this sharp drop could trigger more trouble ahead for all financial markets.

Let's explore the recent shifts in an intraday timeframe analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) to identify where are the key levels to watch ahead.

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart and levels

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, May 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The ongoing rejection in Gold has been severe, with a clear downward channel forming throughout the past week.

Currently testing its $4,500 support, similar as last week lows after rejecting its 4H 50-period MA, bulls will have to show up to avoid an important support break.

• Breaking below the level opens the door to $4,400
  • The 200-day MA comes next at $4,280
  • Any continuation will retest the $4,100 War lows
• To regain a bullish momentum, the metal will need to rebound in the current support to break above the bear channel and 4H 50-period MA ($4,640)

Intraday Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• $4,640 - 4,670 4H 50 & 200 MA & Bear Channel (Short-Term) bullish above
• $4,850 to $4,900 Major Resistance (bullish above)
• $5,100 Pivotal Resistance
• $5,400 mini-resistance

Support Levels:

• December 2025 Support $4,500 to $4,550 (bearish below)
• Pivotal Support $4,325 – $4,400
• Main Channel Lows Support $4,100 (Long-term bearish below)
• Next Support $3,880 to $4,000

Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart and levels

Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, May 4, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Silver is also forming a clear downtrend since reaching its top on April 16, officially breaking its $74-$75 pivot Zone and key Moving averages.

The momentum is decisively bearish for now, hence short-term traders will want to either enter on a retest of the $74 Moving average bands or through a sell stop below $72.

The next stop for the metal is at $70, with this level being a final test before at ~10% drop to $63-$64.

• The war lows would come next at $61
• To inverse the bearish momentum, bulls will want to see a daily close above $76
  • A short-term bullish breakout confirms above $80

Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):

Resistance Levels:

• Pivot lows $74.50 - $75 (bullish above)
• Pivot highs $79 - $79.50 (4H 200-period MA – bullish above)
• $84 Major level
• Key Range Resistance $90 to $92
• $96.47 March highs (higher odds of All-time highs if break above)
• Current Record $121.67

Support Levels:

• $70 - $72 Minor Support (recent bounce – Bearish below)
• December FOMC Minor Support $64 to $66
• $61.10 Past Session lows
• $50 to $55 October Resistance now Major Support
• Silver's 2011 All-time highs $49.81

Safe Trades and May the 4th be with you!

EURGBP: ⬆️ Buy

• EURGBP reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.8685

EURGBP currency pair recently reversed from the support zone between the strong long-term support level 0.8620 (which has been repeatedly reversing the price from the start of 2025), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from May.

The upward reversal from this support zone stopped impulse wave 3 of the active intermediate impulse wave (C).

Given the strength of the support level 0.8620 and the oversold daily Stochastic, EURGBP currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.8685.

EURCHF: ⬆️ Buy

• EURCHF reversed from support zone
• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.9250

EURCHF currency pair recently reversed from the support zone between the support level 0.9150 (which has been reversing the price from the end of March), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from March.

The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the c-wave of the previous ABC correction b from March.

EURCHF currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.9250 (which stopped previous waves a and b).

CADJPY: ⬆️ Buy

• CADJPY reversed from strong support level 114.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 117.00

CADJPY currency pair recently reversed from the support zone between the strong support level 114.00 (low of wave 2 from the end of March), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from February.

The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer- strong buy signal for this currency pair.

Given the clear daily uptrend, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 117.00 (which has been reversing the price from the start of March).

WTI: ⬆️ Buy

• WTI reversed from key support level 96.60
• Likely to rise to resistance level 107.30

WTI crude oil recently reversed from the support zone between the key support level 96.60 (former resistance from April, acting now as the support, after it was broken last month) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse 1.

The upward reversal from this support zone is likely to form the daily Bullish Engulfing pattern if the price closes today near the current levels.

Given the strong daily uptrend, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 107.30 (which stopped previous waves 1 and B).