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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 0.40% against the USD and closed at USD16.38 per ounce.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 16.24, with silver trading 0.82% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 16.15, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 16.05. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 16.40, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 16.55.

The white metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil declined 0.12% against the USD and closed at USD56.16 per barrel, after the International Energy Agency stated that it would act quickly if needed to keep the global oil market adequately supplied.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 56.24, with oil trading 0.14% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 55.70, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 55.16. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 56.91, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 57.58.

Crude oil is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7026; (P) 0.7054; (R1) 0.7070; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral at this point. Further rise remains in favor with 0.6996 minor support intact. Break of 0.7082 will target 100% projection of 0.6831 to 0.7047 from 0.6910 at 0.7126. Sustained break there will indicate solid upside momentum for 0.7205 resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.6996 will suggest that the rebound has completed and turn bias to the downside for 0.6910 support instead.

In the bigger picture, with 0.7393 key resistance intact, medium term outlook remains bearish. The decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3067; (P) 1.3093; (R1) 1.3146; More....

USD/CAD rebounds strongly today but stays below 1.3143 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, sustained trading below 1.3052/68 cluster support should confirm medium term reversal. Deeper decline should then be seen to 1.2781 support next. Nevertheless, break of 1.3143 resistance will confirm short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 1.3218).

In the bigger picture, the case of bearish reversal continues to build up. Decisive break of 1.3068 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3664 at 1.3052) will confirm completion of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.2673 next. On the upside, sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685, is needed to confirm resumption of up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low). Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 107.69; (P) 107.88; (R1) 108.06; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is neutral for the moment. But with 108.37 resistance intact, further fall is expected. Break of 107.21 will target 106.78 low. Decisive break there will resume whole decline from 112.40 and target 104.69 low. On the upside, break of 108.37 will extend the correction from 106.78 with another rise, possibly through 108.99 resistance.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we'd expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. In any case, break of 112.40 is needed to the first serious sign of medium term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline will remain in favor in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9803; (P) 0.9822; (R1) 0.9840; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral again with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Though, further decline is expected with 0.9908 resistance intact. Below 0.9803 will extend the fall from 0.9951 to retest 0.9695 low. On the upside, break of 0.9908 resistance would resume the rebound from 0.9695, through 0.9951, to 1.0014 resistance.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 0.9186 (2018 low) should have completed at 1.0237 already. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0237 at 0.9587 and below. For now, USD/CHF is seen as in long term range pattern between 0.9186 and 1.0342. Hence, we'd pay attention to bottoming signal below 0.9587. However, sustained break of 1.0014 will revive medium term bullishness and turn focus back to 1.0237 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2449; (P) 1.2484; (R1) 1.2513; More....

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further decline remains in favor too as long as 1.2579 resistance holds. Sustained break of 1.2391 key support will resume larger down trend for 61.8% projection of 1.4376 to 1.2391 from 1.3381 at 1.2154 next. Though, break of 1.2579 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound back to 1.2783 resistance. In this case, consolidation from 1.2391 would extend with another rise, towards 1.3381 resistance, before completion.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4376 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 1.2391 would target a test on 1.1946 long term bottom (2016 low). For now, we don't expect a firm break there yet. Hence, focus will be on bottoming signal as it approaches 1.1946. In any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3381 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1202; (P) 1.1213; (R1) 1.1221; More...

EUR/USD's break of 1.1193 suggests resumption of fall from 1.1412. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.1107 low. At this point, we're not expecting a break there yet. Thus, focus will be on bottoming signal around 1.1107. Though, break of 1.1282 resistance is needed to signal completion of fall from 1.1412. Otherwise, further decline is in favor even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, on the one hand, 1.1107 is seen as a medium term bottom on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. On the other hand, rejection by 55 week EMA retains medium term bearishness. Outlook stays neutral for now. On the downside, break of 1.1107 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Meanwhile, break of 1.1412 will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660.

Dollar strengthens broadly today and breaks near term support against Euro. There is no clear sign of strength in other pairs yet. More is needed to the greenback to prove itself. Meanwhile, markets remain relatively mixed elsewhere. Canadian Dollar is the strongest yet New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar are two of the weakest ones. At the same time, Yen is the second worst performing for today.

Technically, EUR/USD's break of 1.1193 suggests resumption of fall from 1.1412. 1.1181 support is next focus, and break will pave the way to retest 1.1107 low. 1.3143 resistance in USD/CAD will be a focus today. Break there will suggest short term bottoming after defending 1.3052/68 cluster support zone. Strong rebound would likely follow for the near term.

In Asia, currently, Nikkei is up 1.20%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.16%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.08%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.29%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.004 at -0.138. Overnight, DOW rose 0.07%. S&P 500 rose 0.28%. NASDAQ rose 0.71%. 10-year yield dropped -0.005 to 2.043.

RBA Kent: Without rate cuts, Aussie dollar might have been higher

RBA Assistant Governor Kent said in the Q&A of a speech that the exchange rate transmission from interest rate cuts have been "broadly working as you would expect." Though, the Australian Dollar exchange rate was supported by a "welcome" increase in commodity prices, as well as dovish turn in other major central banks. That came even after the central bank's back-to-back rate cuts in June and July.

Kent emphasized that "doesn't mean the reductions in the cash rate here have not had their effect on the exchange rate in the normal way, it's just that there have been other forces." And, "you could say well, absent reductions in the cash rate, the Aussie dollar might have been higher."

On monetary policy, he said RBA is "a long way away from something like" quantitative easing. He noted elsewhere, QE was started "in the depths of the financial crisis when the credit system was quite impaired". But "that's not the sort of thing I think people have at the back of their minds here." And monetary policies should be tailored to "your own economic circumstances".

Japan FM Aso: We won public trust for sales tax hike

In Japan, Kyodo news reported today that Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga and Finance Minister Taro Aso will likely retain their posts in a cabinet reshuffle. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he has noted decided on the cabinet yet, after winning a solid majority in the upper house election on Sunday. The new cabinet will likely be announced in September.

Separately, Aso said after a cabinet meeting that the election gave the ruling coalition a stable political footing. Hence, he said, "I believe we won public trust for the sales tax hike".

This somewhat echoed Abe's comment yesterday that based on a stable political basis, the Abe cabinet will take more aggressive and bold economic measures than ever."

On the data front

The calendar is rather light today. UK will release CBI trends total orders. US will release house price index and existing home sales.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1202; (P) 1.1213; (R1) 1.1221; More...

EUR/USD's break of 1.1193 suggests resumption of fall from 1.1412. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.1107 low. At this point, we're not expecting a break there yet. Thus, focus will be on bottoming signal around 1.1107. Though, break of 1.1282 resistance is needed to signal completion of fall from 1.1412. Otherwise, further decline is in favor even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, on the one hand, 1.1107 is seen as a medium term bottom on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. On the other hand, rejection by 55 week EMA retains medium term bearishness. Outlook stays neutral for now. On the downside, break of 1.1107 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) to 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.0813. Meanwhile, break of 1.1412 will resume the rebound to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660.

Economic Indicators Update

RBA Assistant Governor Kent said in the Q&A of a speech that the exchange rate transmission from interest rate cuts have been "broadly working as you would expect." Though, the Australian Dollar exchange rate was supported by a "welcome" increase in commodity prices, as well as dovish turn in other major central banks. That came even after the central bank's back-to-back rate cuts in June and July.

Kent emphasized that "doesn't mean the reductions in the cash rate here have not had their effect on the exchange rate in the normal way, it's just that there have been other forces." And, "you could say well, absent reductions in the cash rate, the Aussie dollar might have been higher."

On monetary policy, he said RBA is "a long way away from something like" quantitative easing. He noted elsewhere, QE was started "in the depths of the financial crisis when the credit system was quite impaired". But "that's not the sort of thing I think people have at the back of their minds here." And monetary policies should be tailored to "your own economic circumstances".