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Dollar continues to trade as the strongest one, riding on US-China agreement to put trade war escalation on hold. US stocks also follow global markets sharply higher, with DOW trading up over 1% at initial trading. Canadian Dollar follows closely as second strongest, with help from WTO oil's rally. Oil price is firstly lifted by the trade news. Secondly, OPEC and Russia agreed to extend production cut by nine months. Euro is the third strongest as unemployment rate dropped to record low of 7.5% in May. On the other hand, Yen and Swiss Franc are among the weakest on risk appetite. Australian Dollar ignore stocks' rally and is the second weakest, awaiting RBA rate cut tomorrow.

Technically, for now, no important resistance level in Dollar is taken out firmly yet. And there is no confirmation of bullish reversal in the greenback despite today's rebound. As noted before, 1.1317 minor support in EUR/USD, 1.2642 support in GBP/USD, 0.9854 resistance in USD/CHF and 108.80 resistance in USD/JPY need to be taken out firmly, better together, to confirm Dollar strength.

In Europe, currently, FTSE is up 1.27%. DAX is up 1.34%. CAC is up 0.81%. German 10-year yield is down -0.186 at -0.343. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 2.13%. China Shanghai SSE rose 2.22%. Hong Kong HSI was on holiday. Singapore Strait Times rose 1.52%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.153 to -0.146.

Fed Clarida: Baseline outlook positive, with growth at or slightly above trend

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida maintained his view that the US economy is "in a good place in terms of lower unemployment rate and the inflation rate a little bit below our 2% objective". Also, the baseline outlook "continues to be a positive one". That is, the committee "sees growth at or slightly above trend, sees the unemployment rate remaining low and the inflation rate rising gradually toward 2%."

Though, he also noted that with the Beige Book survey, "we are hearing increasing references and mentions of uncertainty about policy, and particularly uncertainty about the outlook for trade negotiations, having a potential impact on business investments".

Clarida also noted uncertainties from trade, global growth and business investments. Also, his fellow central banks saw stronger case for policy easing relative to just two months again. He reiterated Fed's stance that "we will certainly act as appropriate to put in place policies that sustain the economic expansion, and the strong labor market and price stability."

UK PMI manufacturing dropped to 48.0, lowest since Feb 2013

UK PMI Manufacturing dropped to 48.0 in June, down from 49.4 and missed expectation of 49.5. That's also the lowest level since February 2013. Looking at some details, manufacturing production contracted at fastest pace since October 2012. New export orders dropped for the third straight month. Business optimism dropped to third lowest level on record. Employment fell for the third straight month.

Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit, said "the downturn in UK manufacturing deepened during June, as the impact of firms unwinding stockpiles built before the original Brexit date continued to reverberate through the sector and exacerbate weak demand... There will need to be a substantial improvement in economic conditions at home and overseas, alongside reductions in both Brexit and domestic political uncertainties, if manufacturing is to see a sustained revival in the coming quarters."

Also from UK, mortgage approvals dropped to 65.4k May, below expectation of 65.5k. M4 money supply dropped -0.1% mom in May, well below expectation of 0.4% mom.

Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 47.6, remained stuck firmly in a steep downturn

Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 47.6 in June, revised down from 47.8, versus May's 47.7. Among the member states, Germany reading was revised down to 45.0, but that was a 4-month high. Austria dropped to 55-month low at 47.5. Spain dropped to 74-month low at 47.9. Italy dropped to 3-month also at 48.4. Ireland dropped to 72-month low at 49.8. All these readings are contractionary. Expansionary reading including Netherlands at 50.7, but that's still at 73-month low. France was revised down from 52.0 to 51.9, a high month high. Greece dropped to 19-month low at 52.4.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said,"Eurozone manufacturing remained stuck firmly in a steep downturn in June, continuing to contract at one of the steepest rates seen for over six years. The disappointing survey rounds off a second quarter in which the average PMI reading was the lowest since the opening months of 2013, consistent with the official measure of output falling at a quarterly rate of approximately 0.7% and acting as a major drag on GDP."

Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to record low

Eurozone unemployment rate dropped -0.1% to 7.5% in May, beat expectation of 7.6%. That's also the lowest level since July 2008. EU 28 unemployment rate also dropped -0.1% to 6.3%. Among the Member States, the lowest unemployment rates in May 2019 were recorded in Czechia (2.2%), Germany (3.1%) and the Netherlands (3.3%). The highest unemployment rates were observed in Greece (18.1% in March 2019), Spain (13.6%) and Italy (9.9%).

Also from Eurozone, M3 money supply rose 4.8% yoy in May, above expectation of 4.6%. PMI manufacturing was finalized at 47.6 in June, revised down from 47.8. From Germany, unemployment dropped -1k in June versus expectation of 0.0%. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0% in June, matched expectations.

ECB Lane: Current policy toolkit effective, further easing case be added if required

ECB chief economist Philip Lane said current monetary policy package has been "effective". And, "the effectiveness of the policy toolkit means that we can add further monetary accommodation." He added "further easing can be provided if required to deliver our mandate." He also noted "especially when inflation deviates from its objective for an extended period, central banks ‒ including the ECB ‒ should adopt clear communication strategies that leave no doubt about their absolute commitment to meeting the inflation objective over the medium term."

ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn, a potential successor to chairman Mario Draghi, said the central bank stands ready to use all its tools to lift inflation. Rehn said in a conference in Helsinki, "the Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, so that inflation continues to converge towards our inflation aim in a sustained manner." However, he also noted that "the ECB – much like other central banks – operates in a new environment where long-run trends, such as population aging, lower long-term interest rates and climate change have become key policy issues." Those make case for a policy review that requires a deeper assessment.

China Caixin PMI manufacturing dropped to 49.4, second lowest since Jun 2016

China Caixin PMI Manufacturing dropped to 49.4 in June, down from 50.2, and missed expectation of 50.1. It's also the second lowest since June 2016, and below neutral 50-mark dividing expansion from contraction again. It's noted that output and new work intakes declined for first time since January. There was renewed reduction in export sales while goods producers cutback input purchasing and payroll numbers

Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group said: "Overall, China's economy came under further pressure in June. Domestic demand shrank notably, foreign demand was still underpinned by front-loading exports, and business confidence fell sharply. It's crucial for policymakers to step up countercyclical policies. New types of infrastructure, high-tech manufacturing and consumption are likely to be the main policy focuses."

Also released over the weekend, the official China PMI Manufacturing was unchanged at 49.4 in June, below expectation of 49.5. Official PMI Non-Manufacturing dropped to 54.2, down from 54.3, matched expectations.

Australia AiG PMI manufacturing dropped to 49.4, lowest since Aug 2016

Australia AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index dropped -3.3 pts to 49.4 (seasonally adjusted) in June, below 50-points threshold and was the lowest level since August 2016. In trend terms, PMI dropped -0.4 to 51.9. Three of the six sectors are in deep contraction including metal products, TCF paper & printing, and machinery and equipment. Though, food & beverages, building materials and chemicals are holding first.

Employment data are mixed. average wage index rebounded by 4.2 points to 59.7, indicating a faster rate of wage increases (seasonally adjusted). However, employment index fell by -5.5 points to be broadly stable at 50.1.

Japan Tankan large manufacturing index dropped to near three year low

Japan Q2 Tankan survey showed large manufacturing index deteriorated to the worst level in nearly three years. But, improvements was seen in the non-manufacturing sector. Capital expenditure also held up well. Overall, the set of data argues that while the economy is stagnating, it's not falling off the cliff. And, BoJ will likely maintain its baseline of moderate expansion.

Large Manufacturing Index dropped to 7, down from 12 and missed expectation of 9, lowest since September 2016. Large Manufacturers Outlook dropped to 7, down from 8, but beat expectation of 6. Large Non-Manufacturing Index rose to 23, up from 21, beat expectation of 20. Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook dropped to 17, down from 20, missed expectation of 19. All industry capex rose 7.4%, up from 1.2% but missed expectation of 8.1%.

Also from Japan, PMI manufacturing was finalized at 49.3, revised down from 49.5, below the 50 no-change threshold for the second consecutive month. Consumer confidence dropped to 38.7 in June, down from 39.4 and missed expectation of 39.2.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2662; (P) 1.2699; (R1) 1.2733; More....

GBP/USD breached 1.2642 minor support but quickly recovered. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 1.2642 will confirm completion of corrective rebound from 1.2506. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.2506 low. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3381 to 1.2506 at 1.2840 to complete the corrective rise from 1.2506. However, sustained break of 1.2840 will bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.3047 next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4376 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 1.2391 would target a test on 1.1946 long term bottom (2016 low). For now, we don't expect a firm break there yet. Hence, focus will be on bottoming signal as it approaches 1.1946. In any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3381 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Economic Indicators Update

The US 30 stock index is currently challenging June’s peak of 26,907 but the positive momentum in the MACD, which trends above its trigger line, signals that a new record high could be achievable as well in the next few sessions. Still, the RSI warns that the market is approaching overbought territory and hence downside corrections cannot be ruled out.

Jumping above the 26,907 resistance level, the bulls would aim to test the uncharted area between 27,000 and 27,500.

Otherwise, if the market weakens below the 26,424 support, the 40-day simple moving average (SMA) currently at 26,036 could next halt bearish action. Moving lower, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 21,596 to 26,907 near 25,657 could provide a stronger base.

In the medium-term picture, a bull market could officially begin comfortably above 26,960, while a bearish outlook would resume under 24,607.

The stage is set for tomorrow’s 6th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting. Oil is higher as Russia signaled that all ministers support a nine-month extension to production cuts. If you are an oil bull and have followed OPEC meetings before, you will wait before opening up a bottle of champagne. Tomorrow, the 24 oil producing countries are expected to confirm today’s findings:

• Production cuts should be extended at least till end of year, with the best case scenario seeing an extension into the first quarter of 2020.
• Iran will hold off on insisting to have anti-sanction language.

A big part of the crude equation will fall on global demand. Today’s wrath of weaker than expected PMI data globally should cap further gains with oil prices today. If the US ISM reading disappoints and falls to contraction, we could see oil prices attempt to fill the weekend gap.

The Canadian dollar is slightly lower to the greenback in early trade. Major support remains the 1.3000 handle.

WTI oil probes above psychological $60 barrier for the first time in over five weeks on Monday, boosted by ceasefire between US and China and willingness to continue trade talks and signals that OPEC+ group is likely to extend supply cut deal until at least the end of 2019.

Concerns about lower global demand on escalation of trade war started to fade, improving the sentiment and sending oil price to new multi-week highs. Also, positive tones from OPEC meeting (today/Tuesday), as leaders of Russia and Saudi Arabia already agreed the main principles of extension of production cut that aims to further stabilize global oil market.

Rally through $60 pressures pivotal barrier at $60.47 (Fibo 61.8% of $66.58/$50.59), looking for fresh bullish signal on firm break.

Daily MA's turned to full bullish setup, as the price maintains strong bullish momentum and underpin the action.

A cluster of broken daily MA's between $59.33 and $58.55 now offers strong supports which are expected to keep the downside protected and keep bulls intact.

Res: 60.27; 60.47; 60.80; 61.03
Sup: 60.00; 59.71; 59.33; 59.08

Entering into US session, Dollar remains the strongest one for today, in reaction to US-China decision to put trade war escalation on hold. In addition Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida sounded upbeat as he said baseline economic outlook remains positive. Markets will now enter into a crucial week to gauge the chance of a July Fed cut. Important economic will be released starting from ISM Manufacturing today.

Staying in the currency markets, Canadian Dollar is the second strongest one as oil prices also jump on the trade news. WTI oil is now trading around 60 handle. Euro is the third weakest after mixed data. On the positive side, Eurozone unemployment rate dropped to record low of 7.5% in May. For now, Yen and Swiss Franc are among the weakest on risk appetite. Australian Dollar ignore stocks' rally and is the second weakest, awaiting RBA rate cut tomorrow.

In Europe, currently:

• FTSE is up 1.33%.
• DAX is up 1.31%.
• CAC is up 0.86%.
• German 10-year yield is down -0.0007 at -0.325.

Earlier in Asia:

• Nikkei rose 2.13%.
• China Shanghai SSE rose 2.22%.
• Hong Kong HSI was on holiday.
• Singapore Strait Times rose 1.52%.
• Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.153 to -0.146.

ECB chief economist Philip Lane said current monetary policy package has been "effective". And, "the effectiveness of the policy toolkit means that we can add further monetary accommodation." He added "further easing can be provided if required to deliver our mandate."

He also noted "especially when inflation deviates from its objective for an extended period, central banks ‒ including the ECB ‒ should adopt clear communication strategies that leave no doubt about their absolute commitment to meeting the inflation objective over the medium term."

The British pound has fallen sharply lower against the US dollar during the European trading session after the UK manufacturing PMI came in much weaker than expected. The GBPUSD pair is heavily bearish while trading under the 1.2660 level, with major upcoming support at the 1.2610 level up next. Sellers need to move price under the 1.2520 level to invalidate the bullish pattern on the four-hour time frame.

The GBPUSD pair is heavily bearish while trading below the 1.2660 level, key support is found at the 1.2610 and 1.2520 levels.

GBPUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.2685 level, key resistance is found at the 1.2730 and 1.2780 levels.

The euro has moved to the downside against the US dollar, following a false breakout above the triangle pattern on the four-hour time frame. The EURUSD pair is weak while trading under the 1.1355 level, with major weekly support now at the 1.1290 level. Despite the recent weakness in the pair, bulls still remain in control while price trade above the important 1.1310 level.

The EURUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.1355 level, key technical resistance is found at the 1.1400 and 1.1440 levels.

If the EURUSD pair trades below the 1.1355 level, key support is found at the 1.1310 and 1.1290 levels.

This weekend’s trade truce between the US and China delivered a nice start to the trading week for equities all around the globe. All the major indexes are higher on the reset of trade talks between the world’s two largest economies. President Trump softened his tone on supplying Chinese tech giant Huawei and signaled he will not raise tariffs, while China will buy more US farm goods. The concessions from both sides are hardly anything for both sides to brag about, this meeting basically just brings us back to where we were in talks in late April. While no set timeline has been suggested by both sides, financial markets are appearing to be optimistic we could see something by Autumn. The political motivation from both sides to reach final trade deal is growing, Trump with his 2020 election and China with the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, which falls on October 1.

As equities globally have green arrows across the board, Treasuries and the Japanese yen are softer as demand for safe-havens eased. The dollar is stronger across the board, mainly benefiting from abysmal eurozone manufacturing data that saw sharp downward revisions across the continent.

The greenback will likely see weakness if the ISM manufacturing gauge shows a big miss, potentially flirting with contraction territory. Leading up to the Fed’s meeting at the end of the month, the dollar should remain on soft footing continued weaker than expected US economic data.

Hong Kong

In addition to the over year-long trade war, China has a brewing domestic problem, Hong Kong. Protesters delivered a massive demonstration that took aim at disrupting the ceremony for Hong Kong’s return to Chinese rule in 1997. Beijing supports Chief Executive Carrie Lam and it appears she is not going anywhere anytime soon or backing down to the protesters’ demand to completely remove the proposal to allow extraditions to China.

Hong Kong is a fluid situation that will eventually get even more complicated when foreign leaders get involved.

PMIs

European manufacturing data took the air out of what was supposed to be a risk on trading day for high-beta currencies. The euro softened as the region’s key manufacturing purchasing index posted its fifth consecutive month of contraction.

The British pound, which mainly has reacted to Brexit headlines, weakened to the lowest levels in more than a week as we are starting to see many cracks in the UK economy. Just a couple months ago, markets were considering a rate hike from the BOE, despite Parliament’s inability to get a Brexit deal done.

OPEC

Crude prices opened the weak gap higher as the G20 sideline meetings delivered two positive outcomes: the world’s largest two economies resume trade talks and Russian President Putin gave the Saudis the green light to approve cuts by six to nine months.

Today, the JMMC meeting saw the committee fall in line with what the President Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman agreed upon over the weekend. The big surprise from the JMMC meeting was that Iran backed down from their stance of requiring the input of anti-sanctions language in its communique. Going into the meeting the base case was for the production cuts to be extended until year end. The potential of having them last until first quarter of 2020 is helping oil stay near its sessions high.

Markets are highly optimistic the OPEC meeting will see a continuation of production cuts, but the effect will likely see upside as past meetings. The argument for higher oil prices will likely be hampered surging US production, which has doubled in the last five years and falling crude demand as the global economy continues to have most data points suggest a prolonged slowdown is upon us.

Gold

Gold plummeted below the $1,400 an ounce level after the latest chapter in the US-China trade war saw a reset in trade talks. The yellow metal’s selloff was the worst in a year, but we should see global growth concerns and fresh stimulus bets from the largest central banks see buyers jump back in. A finalized trade deal is still far away and we could see talks collapse again in a couple months.

Notes/Observations

• US-China trade truce boosts risk appetite but analysts believe Intellectual property issues unlikely to be solved in the talks
• Major European PMI manufacturing data (Beats: none: ; Misses: Euro Zone, Germany, France, Italy and UK)
• OPEC+ said to extend the production cuts for another 6-9 months

Asia:

• China and US agreed to restart trade talks; US agreed not to impose any new tariffs
• US President Trump shook hands with North Korea leader Kim Jong Un, Trump also took 20 steps into North Korea (first sitting US President to walk into North Korea)
• Japan Q2 Tankan Large manufacturing Index hits a 3-year low ( 7 v 9e)
• China Jun Official Manufacturing PMI registers its 2nd straight contraction (49.4 v 49.5e)
• China Jun Caixin PMI Manufacturing registered its 1st contraction since Feb and its 2nd lowest since Jun 2016. (49.4 v 50.1e)
• Japan METI confirmed to adopt stricter rules on some exports related to key display panel and chip materials, including polymide, resist, HF to South Korea, effective July 4th due to worsening relations with South Korea
• South Korea Jun Trade Balance $4.2B v $4.1Be; Exports Y/Y: -13.5% v -13.5%e (7th straight decline, fastest decline since Jan 2016)

Europe/Mideast:

• UK PM Candidate Hunt announced £20B no-deal Brexit 'war chest' to financially support industries; planned to 'ramp up' no deal preparations; planned to cut corporate taxes to 12.5% regardless of Brexit deal. Government must be prepared to walk away from bad Brexit deal. Key is to negotiate a better Brexit deal
• Turkey President Erdogan: Have heard from Pres Trump that there will be no sanctions over the S400 missile defense system deal with Russia; Russian S-400

Americas:

• President Trump: negotiations with China were continuing, believe we are "back on track" with China. To allow US companies to sell their equipment to Huawei
• White House Adviser Kudlow stated that the move related to Huawei would only apply to products that were widely available around the world and not the most 'sensitive' equipment. US Commerce Dept to grant some additional licenses where there is general availability of the parts the company needs.

Energy:

• OPEC said to roll over production cuts for second half of 2019
• Russia Energy Min Novak stated that an agreement to extend the oil production cut deal was consolidated; other countries were supporting an extension
• Saudi Energy Min al-Falih said the agreement would most likely to be extended by 9 months

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 +0.76% at 387.80, FTSE +1.03% at 7,501.77, DAX +1.23% at 12,551.15, CAC-40 +0.66% at 5,575.42, IBEX-35 +0.28% at 9,224.40, FTSE MIB +0.27% at 21,292.50, SMI +0.76% at 9,973.00, S&P 500 Futures +1.09%]
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices trade higher across the board in risk on trade tracking stronger Asian Indices and higher US index futures following an agreement between the US and China on a trade truce. Macro data remained subdues as European Manufacturing PMIs generally came in below expectations. On the corporate front shares of Latecoere trades sharply higher following a takeover offer from searchlight capital; Future gains following upbeat guidance and the stepping down of its CFO, while Selvaag Bolig also gaining on Q2 Revenue figures. In other news Aston Martin gains slightly as Strategic European Invest Group consider taking a stake in the company; Hurricane Energy declines sharply after plugging its Warwick Deep well, whilst export names in general are all gaining following the positive trade news.

Equities

• Consumer discretionary: Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings [AML.UK] +1.5% (partial offer)
• Materials: Fresnillo [FRES.UK] -3% (tax decision), ArcelorMittal [MT.NL] +2.5% (confirms asset sale)
• Energy: Hurricane Energy [HUR.UK] -14% (well update)
• Financials: Deutsche Bank [DBK.DE] +2% (job cuts)
• Industrials: Daimler [DAI.DE] +2%, Covestro [1COV.DE] +2% (G-20 talks), Schaeffler [SHA.DE] +1.5% (plant sale)
• Technology: Dialog Semiconductor [DLG.DE] +4%, Infineon [IFX.DE] +3.5%, AMS[AMS.CH] +5.5% (G-20 talks), Future [FUTR.UK] +10.5% (trading update)
• Telecom: Nokia [NOKIA.FI] +0.5%, Ericsson [ERICB.SE] +0.5% (G-20 talks)

Speakers

• Italy PM Conti: Difficult to say if EU leaders will reach an agreement on a candidate to succeed Juncker
• Fed's Clarida (moderate, voter): Chair Powell has stated that saw some room for more accommodation

Currencies/Fixed Income

• Geo-political tensions eased following G20 meeting in Japan to help risk appetite with the resumption of trade talks between the US and China. However, despite the trade truce many analysts believed Intellectual property issues unlikely to be solved in the talks.
• EUR/USD was lower by 0.5% throughout the session today. Major European PMI manufacturing data saw all of the major readings miss expectations (Euro Zone, Germany, France, Italy and UK all missed). Also the inability
• GBP/USD lower by 0.4% after the UK PMI Manufacturing missed its expectations to remain in contraction territory for the 2nd straight month. Pair at 1.2645 just ahead of the mid-day trading.
• USD/JPY higher by .3% to retest above the 108 level as risk appetite found fresh legs.

Economic Data

• (IN) India Jun PMI Manufacturing: 52.1 v 52.7 prior (23rd month of expansion)
• (RU) Russia Jun PMI Manufacturing: 48.6 v 49.8 prior (2nd consecutive contraction and lowest reading since July 2018)
• (SE) Sweden Jun PMI Manufacturing: 52.0 v 53.1 prior
• (CH) Swiss May Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -1.7% v -0.8% prior
• (AU) Australia Jun Commodity Index: 127.6 v 124.6 prior; Y/Y: 13.0% v 11.5% prior
• (NL) Netherlands Jun Manufacturing PMI: 50.7 v 52.2 prior (70th month of expansion but lowest reading since June 2013)
• (NO) Norway Jun PMI Manufacturing: 51.9 v 54.5e (12th straight expansion)
• (HU) Hungary Jun Manufacturing PMI: 54.4 v 56.0e (43rd month of expansion)
• (PL) Poland Jun PMI Manufacturing: 48.4 v 49.0e (8th straight contraction)
• (TR) Turkey Jun PMI Manufacturing: 47.9 v 45.3 prior (15th straight contraction)
• (ES) Spain Jun Manufacturing PMI: 47.9 v 49.5e (confirms move back into contraction and lowest reading since Apr 2013)
• (CH) Swiss Jun PMI Manufacturing: 47.7 v 49.0e (3rd straight contraction)
• (CZ) Czech Republic Jun PMI Manufacturing: 45.9 v 46.9e (7th straight contraction and lowest since July 2009)
• (SE) Sweden May Household Lending Y/Y: 5.0% v 5.0% prior
• (TH) Thailand Jun Business Sentiment Index: 49.4 v 50.1 prior
• (IT) Italy Jun Manufacturing PMI: 48.4 v 49.1e (9th straight contraction)
• (FR) France Jun Final Manufacturing PMI: 51.9 v 52.0e (confirmed its 3rd straight expansion and highest since Sept)
• (DE) Germany Jun Final Manufacturing PMI: 45.0 v 45.4e (confirmed its 6th straight contraction)
• (DE) Germany Jun Unemployment Change: -1.0K v 0.0Ke; Unemployment Claims Rate: 5.0% v 5.0%e
• (CH) Swiss Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 579.3B v 578.9B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 466.7B v 465.9B prior
• (EU) Euro Zone Jun Final Manufacturing PMI: 47.6 v 47.8e (confirmed 5th straight contraction)
• (GR) Greece Jun Manufacturing PMI: 52.4 v 54.2 prior(25th month of expansion butt lowest since Nov 2017)
• (EU) Euro Zone May M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.8% v 4.6%e
• (IT) Italy May Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 9.9% v 10.3%e (lowest level since Feb 2012)
• (UK) Jun PMI Manufacturing: 48.0 v 49.5e (2nd straight contraction and lowest since Feb 2013)
• (UK) May Net Consumer Credit: £0.8B v £0.9Be ; Net Lending: £3.1B v £4.2Be
• (UK) May Mortgage Approvals: 65.4K v 65.5Ke
• (UK) May M4 Money Supply M/M: -0.1% v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.9% prior; M4 Ex IOFC Annualized: 2.8% v 2.8% prior
• (EU) Euro Zone May Unemployment Rate: 7.5% v 7.6%e (lowest since 2008)
• (DK) Denmark Jun PMI Survey: 45.0 v 49.1 prior
• (ZA) South Africa Jun Manufacturing PMI: 46.2 v 45.4 prior (6th straight contraction)
• (BE) Belgium May Unemployment Rate: 5.5% v 5.5% prior

Fixed Income Issuance

• (NO) Norway sold NOK3.0B vs. NOK3.0B indicated in 3-month bills; Avg Yield: 1.23% v 1.15% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.96x v 4.06x prior

Looking Ahead

• (ZA) South Africa Jun Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: No est v -5.8% prior (revised from -5.7%)
• (IT) Italy Jun Budget Balance: No est v -€0.9B prior
• (RO) Romania Jun International Reserves: No est v $36.7B prior
• (AR Argentina Jun Government Tax Revenue (ARS): No est v 444.2B prior
• (BR) Brazil May CNI Capacity Utilization: No est v 77.8% prior
• 05:30 ((NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell €1.0-2.0B in 6-month bills
• 05:30 (ZA) South Africa announces details of upcoming I/L bond sale (held on Fridays)
• 06:00 (PT) Portugal May Industrial Production M/M: No est v 2.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.6% prior
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
• 07:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays)
• 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
• 08:00 (CZ) Czech Jun Budget Balance (CZK): No est v -50.9B prior
• 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index
• 09:00 (BR) Brazil Jun PMI Manufacturing: No est v 50.2 prior
• 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined €3.7-4.9B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
• 09:45 (US) Jun Final Markit Manufacturing PMI: 50.1e v 50.1 prior
• 10:00 (US) Jun ISM Manufacturing: 51.0e v 52.1 prior; Prices Paid: 52.8e v 53.2 prior
• 10:00 (US) May Construction Spending M/M: 0.0%e v 0.0% prior
• 10:00 (MX) Mexico May Total Remittances: $3.3Be v $2.9B prior
• 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Economist Survey
• 10:30 (MX) Mexico Jun PMI Manufacturing: No est v 50.0 prior
• 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
• 12:00 (IT) Italy Jun New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -1.2% prior
• 13:00 (MX) Mexico Jun IMEF Manufacturing Index: No est v 49.4 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: No est v 49.4 prior
• 14:00 (BR) Brazil Jun Trade Balance: $5.2Be v $6.4B prior; Total Exports: $17.6Be v $21.4B prior; Total Imports: $12.5Be v $15.0B prior