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The financial markets are generally in consolidative mode, awaiting the start of the two-day G20 summit in Osaka, Japan tomorrow. For traders, main focus will be on face-to-face meeting of Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Hopes are high for some form of agreement to stop further escalations in trade war. Words from both sides this week were not kind though. Trump threatened to do very substantial additional tariffs if talks break down again. China is insisting on its own principle and urged US to correct wrong practices.

In the forex markets, Yen is trading as the weakest one so far, followed by Euro. German CPI accelerated to 1.6% in June but that provides little help to the common currency. Dollar is not far away with Swiss Franc neither. On the other hand, Sterling is the strongest one for today but it's going nowhere for now. Kiwi and Aussie are the next strongest.

In Europe, currently, FTSE is down -0.20%. DAX is up 0.26%. CAC is down -0.12%. German 10-year yield is down -0.013 at -0.313. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 1.19%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.42%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.69%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.83%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0056 to -0.14.

US initial jobless claims rose 10k to 227k, Q1 GDP finalized at 3.1% annualized

US initial jobless claims rose 10k to 227k in the week ending June 22, above expectation of 220k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2.25k to 221.25k. Continuing claims rose 22k to 1.688m in the week ending June 15. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 6.5k to 1.687m.

Q1 GDP growth was finalized at 3.1% annualized, unrevised. .Upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment were offset by downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and inventory investment and an upward revision to imports.

Trump-Xi meeting confirmed at 0230GMT on Sat

The Trump-Xi meeting on sideline of G20 in Japan is confirmed to be held at 0230 GMT on Saturday. The South China Morning Post in Hong Kong reported that conditions on stopping further escalation in tariffs are already agreed upon. And the agreement will be laid out after the meeting in form of coordinated press releases, rather than joint statement.

Public comments regarding 25% tariffs on USD 300B of Chinese imports, essentially all untaxed, would end on July 2. Trump could formally make a decision to start imposing the tariffs very soon, should trade negotiations collapse once again. Trump also made himself very clear yesterday and said "I would do additional tariffs, very substantial additional tariffs, if that doesn't work, if we don't make a deal."

China insists on core concerns in US trade talks

Ahead of the Xi-Trump meeting in Japan on Saturday, Chinese reiterated their hard-line stance. Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng warned that "China's core concerns must be addressed properly" in trade negotiations. He added, "we hope the U.S. side could drop its wrong practices, and we can solve the problems through equal dialogue and cooperation." Gao also urged US to " cancel immediately sanctions on Chinese companies including Huawei to push for the healthy and stable development in Sino-U.S. ties".

Separately, Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said "the Chinese people are not afraid of pressure and never buy this kind of strategy," referring to Trump's tariff threats. And, he warned "starting a trade war and adding tariffs harms itself and others."

On the other hand, WSJ reported that Xi will insist on lifting Huawei ban as part of a set of terms before China would come back to the table. Xi could also request US to lift all punitive tariffs and drop efforts to get China to buy even more US exports than Xi said it would back in December.

Eurozone economic sentiment dropped to 103.3, largest decline in industrial confidence in eight years

Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator dropped -1.9 to 103.3 in June, below expectation of 104.7. The deterioration was driven by lower confidence in industrial (-2.7 to -5.6) and services (-1.1 to 11.0). The fall in industrial confidence was largest in eight years. Also, it's below long-term average for the first time since 2013. On the other hand, Confidence improved in retail trade (+1 to 0.1) and construction (+3.6 to 7.7). Also, the ESI decreased in all of the largest euro-area economies, most so in Germany (-2.9), followed by Italy, the Netherlands (both -1.5), France (-1.0) and Spain (-0.6).

Business Climate Indicator dropped -0.13 to 0.17, below expectation of 0.28. Managers' production expectations, as well as their views on overall and export order books and the level of stocks deteriorated. Only the assessments of past production improved.

Germany CPI accelerated to 1.6% yoy in June, above expectation of 1.4% yoy.

New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped to -38.1

New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dropped to -38.1 in June, down from -32.0. Agriculture scored worse at -54.5, followed by construction at -42.3 and manufacturing at -41.4. Activity Outlook also dropped from 8.5 to 8.0.

ANZ noted: "The outlook for the economy is murky. As things stand, there is no reason for the economy to fall into a deep hole. Commodity prices are good, interest rates are at record lows, and the labour market is tight. But the economy is facing credit and cost headwinds and the global outlook is deteriorating. On the latter, for all that our commodity prices have been resilient, the risks are looking decidedly one-sided. Upside risks to growth appear few and far between and with the inflation outlook not consistent with the target midpoint we expect two more OCR cuts this year."

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2664; (P) 1.2664; (R1) 1.2709; More....

GBP/USD recovers mildly after drawing support from 4 hour 55 EMA. Intraday bias remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. With 1.2642 minor support intact, corrective rebound from 1.2506 could still extend higher. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3381 to 1.2506 at 1.2840. On the downside, break of 1.2642 minor support will turn intraday bias back to retest 1.2506 low. However, sustained break of 1.2840 will bring stronger rise to 61.8% retracement at 1.3047 next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.4376 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 1.2391 would target a test on 1.1946 long term bottom (2016 low). For now, we don't expect a firm break there yet. Hence, focus will be on bottoming signal as it approaches 1.1946. In any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3381 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Economic Indicators Update

US initial jobless claims rose 10k to 227k in the week ending June 22, above expectation of 220k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 2.25k to 221.25k. Continuing claims rose 22k to 1.688m in the week ending June 15. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 6.5k to 1.687m.

Q1 GDP growth was finalized at 3.1% annualized, unrevised. .Upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment were offset by downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and inventory investment and an upward revision to imports.

USDCNH had a bearish start on Thursday, with the price remaining below a crucial support of the 6.9000 barrier and the 40-day simple moving average (SMA).

From the technical point of view, the RSI is heading down in bearish territory, while the MACD also supports a bearish picture, since it continues to hold near the zero line and below the trigger line.

Should prices drop below the 6.8300 low, they could hit the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward movement from 6.2350 to 6.9781, near 6.8030. An extension of the bearish structure would open the way towards the 6.7600 psychological mark, identified by the inside swing top on April 25.

If the market manages to pick up speed, the 6.9000 resistance and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at 6.9069 could offer nearby resistance. Above these levels the 6.9580 barrier could act as strong obstacle as well, before turning the focus to the ten-month high of 6.9781.

In the long-term, the outlook remains neutral since prices have failed to post a clear tendency. However, the expectation is a negative movement in the very short-term, as long as the moving averages are ready for bearish cross.

Ahead of the Xi-Trump meeting in Japan on Saturday, Chinese reiterated their hard-line stance. Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng warned that "China's core concerns must be addressed properly" in trade negotiations. He added, "we hope the U.S. side could drop its wrong practices, and we can solve the problems through equal dialogue and cooperation." Gao also urged US to " cancel immediately sanctions on Chinese companies including Huawei to push for the healthy and stable development in Sino-U.S. ties".

Separately, Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said "the Chinese people are not afraid of pressure and never buy this kind of strategy," referring to Trump's tariff threats. And, he warned "starting a trade war and adding tariffs harms itself and others."

On the other hand, WSJ reported that Xi will insist on lifting Huawei ban as part of a set of terms before China would come back to the table. Xi could also request US to lift all punitive tariffs and drop efforts to get China to buy even more US exports than Xi said it would back in December.

Gold hovers above $1,400

We've seen some profit taking in gold over the last couple of days, following hints from various Fed officials that market expectations for rate cuts are a little over the top.

These warnings haven't exactly fallen on deaf ears, with three cuts still more than 60% priced in this year, but expectations of a 50 basis point cut next month have slipped, for good reason. Traders are still absolutely convinced that a cut is happening though.

US Interest Rate Probabilities

The comments have brought some relief in the dollar, which came under heavy pressure after last Wednesday, which has in turn taken the edge off the gold rally. Still, it continues to hold above $1,400 which is the first test of support for the yellow metal. Should it break through here, then $1,370-1,375 may provide further support.

Gold Daily Chart

The rally doesn't appear to be lacking in momentum though so bears may have a job on their hand. The next rally – assuming we get it – will be very interesting from that perspective. Naturally, the recent peak is the most notable level of resistance, initially. Above here, the area around $1,475-1,485 has previously been an area of support and resistance so may be of interest again.

US stocks index futures were initially climbing on optimism that President Trump will delay additional tariffs and that the world’s two largest economies will have a reset in trade talks. Last month, talks were close to a deal after both sides seemed to be agree on Chinese purchases of US goods, intellectual property rules and market access. It all fell apart after China backed out of making changes to their law and that was a deal breaker for Trump as he wants to see structural reform in China.

Just as important for China is the optics of how a deal is reached. They do not want to appear weak and succumbing to US pressure. US officials are trying to temper expectations from becoming too optimistic, but with stocks near record territory, it appears markets are fairly convinced some good will come out of Osaka this weekend.

Equities took a small reversal after the Wall Street Journal reported “Beijing is insisting U.S. remove its ban on the sale of U.S. technology to Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei Technologies Co. Beijing also wants the U.S. to lift all punitive tariffs and drop efforts to get China to buy even more U.S. exports than Beijing said it would when the two leaders last met in December.” It seems like this could easily get shot down by President Trump and US indexes returned near the lows of the day.

Iran

European governments do not want Iran to abandon the 2015 nuclear deal and seem prepared to offer a credit line to help a special mechanism to enable trade with the West. Iran’s economy has been crippled by US sanctions and the resumption of making weapons-grade material next month has motivated Europe to provide Tehran with an offer. If Iran violates the old agreement, the EU will threaten to remove this barter-like solution that would alleviate a lot of economic pain in the short-term.

WTI oil price eases on Thursday and probe below broken 200SMA, following Wednesday’s spike to new one-month high at $59.91and subsequent pullback that signaled bulls might be running out of steam.

Oil price advanced after data showed surprisingly strong fall in US crude inventories (12.7 mln bls vs 2.5 mln bls draw f/c in the biggest decline since 2016), but was unable to hold gains and closed below cracked 55SMA ($59.49) and left daily candle with long upper shadow.

Traders booked profits on strong 7-days rally, as uncertainty rises ahead of G20 summit and OPEC meeting.

Markets will closely watch the outcome from Trump/Xi meeting, with decision on no more new taxes expected to boost optimism and push oil prices higher.

Also, OPEC is going to decide whether and how to extend the existing deal about production cut, with positive outcome of the meeting to offer fresh support to oil prices.

Current easing could be seen as positioning before fresh attempts higher, with extended dips below 200SMA expected to find ground above key supports at $56.40/25 (Fibo 38.2% of $50.59/$59.91 rally / converging 30/10SMA’s).

Res: 59.24, 59.49, 60.00, 60.47
Sup: 58.60, 58.39, 58.00, 57.19

Notes/Observations

• G-20 Approaches: with focus on Trump-Xi meeting and trade implications; risk sentiment buoyed by hopes of a truce between the two powers
• Germany regional inflation accelerated in Jun

Asia:

• US/China said to have tentatively agreed to a truce in their trade war so they can resume talks aimed at resolving the dispute. Fresh tariffs expected to be delayed, with two sides preparing separate statements. Trump's decision to delay additional tariffs was Xi Jinping's price for holding this week's meeting with him
• BOJ Dep Gov Wakatabe reiterated stance to maintain easy monetary policy for as long as needed to achieve 2% inflation target; appropriate to continue with current easing now. Needed to be increasingly vigilant to downside risks to economy; might preemptively take action if Board could agree it will be difficult to achieve the 2% inflation target. Must need to ease immediately if economy loses momentum to achieve price target

Americas:

• Fed's Daly (dove, non-voter): US labor market was very tight and strong, but there might be more room to run. Might have to do more to drive inflation above the 2% target. Signs of persistent inflation drag would be concerning and might require policymakers to do more
• President Trump tweet: Look forward to speaking to India PM Modi; India has had high tariffs against US for years and has just recently increased the tariffs even further. This is unacceptable and tariffs must be withdrawn - President Trump planned meetings at upcoming G20 in Osaka, Japan. To meet with China President Xi on Sat, Jun 29th at 22:30 ET/02:30 GMT

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 +0.26% at 383.18, FTSE +0.15% at 7,427.25, DAX +0.54% at 12,311.16, CAC-40 +0.04% at 5,502.94, IBEX-35 +0.21% at 9,176.55, FTSE MIB +0.60% at 21,184.50, SMI +0.30% at 9,881.50, S&P 500 Futures +0.39%]
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equities European Indices trade higher tracking higher Asian Indices and firmer US futures on talks of a truce between the US and China ahead of the G20 meeting. On the corporate front shares of Swedish Retail giant H&M gains over 8% after earnings and June sales which were up 12%; Zumtobel gains on earnings and raised EBIT outlook; Green King is another notable gainer following a beat on both the top and bottom line, while Serco trades higher after it's trading update and raised Revenue outlook.. CHR Hansen falls over 12% after cutting its full year organic sales outlook, with SRP Groupe declining over 30% as the company's trading update and analyst downgrade. Staffline is another notable decline after earnings and £34M placing. In other news Bayer outperforms in Germany as Elliott advisers reveal a €1.1B stake; TLG Immobien falls following a placing while Pendragon declines after the stepping down of its CEO. Looking ahead notable earners include Wallgreens Boots Alliance, Conagra Brands and McCormick among others.
• Consumer discretionary: H&M [HMB.SE] +10% (earnings; cuts outlook), Serco Group [SRP.UK] +6.5% (trading update), Kingfisher [KGF.UK] +3% (CEO appointment), Greene King [GNK.UK] +3.5% (earnings), Zumtobel [ZAG.AT] +7% (earnings), Staffline Group [STAF.UK] -17% (placing), Pendragon [PDG.UK] -5% (CEO resigns)
• Consumer staples: CHR Hansen [CHR.DK] -12% (earnings; cuts outlook)
• Energy: Premier Oil [PMO.UK] +2.5% (resource estimate)
• Healthcare: Bayer [BAYN.DE] +7% (activist investor Elliot takes stake), Allergy Therapeutics [AGY.UK] +13% (settlement)

Speakers

• Remain Parliamentary members in UK said to seek to block a no-deal Brexit by cutting off some govt funding during week of July 1st
• Turkey Parliament said to be preparing bill on transfer more of more of the Central Bank funds to the nation's treasury
• China Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang called for favorable environment for Xi-Trump meeting at G-20; reiterated to reveal details of unreliable entities list soon. Stated that US Trade Rep Lighthizer and China Vice Premier Liu He had a good call earlier in the week (Jun 24th); U. and China teams kept communication afterwards
• China PBoC Quarterly Monetary Policy Meeting reiterated view that external uncertainties were increasing. To strike balance in monetary easing and tightening and use various monetary policy tools. To keep CNY rate basically stable at reasonable level and to keep liquidity reasonably sufficient

Currencies/Fixed Income

• Risk on sentiment was bubbling in the session on reports the US would delay additional tariffs on Chinese goods ahead of this weekend's G-20 summit in order to spur efforts to resume talks
• USD/JPY was higher by 0.2% on the risk appetite to retest the 108 level.
• Germany regional inflation accelerated in Jun helping to push the EUR/USD off its worst levels. pair at 1.1370 just ahead of the NY morning.

Economic Data

• (NL) Netherlands Jun Producer Confidence Index: 3.3 v 4.7 prior
• (FI) Finland Jun Consumer Confidence Index: -4.6 v -1.8 prior; Business Confidence: -5 v +1 prior
• (FI) Finland May Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -0.3% v +3.6% prior
• (FI) Finland May Preliminary House Price Index M/M: -3.0% v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: -1.0% v +0.1% prior
• (NO) Norway May Retail Sales (includes fuel) M/M: -1.3% v -1.0%e
• (DE) Germany Jun CPI Saxony M/M: 0.5% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.4% prior
• (ES) Spain Jun Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.6%e
• (ES) Spain Jun Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e prior; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.7%e
• (ES) Spain Apr Total Mortgage Lending Y/Y:-2.5 % v +23.2% prior; House Mortgage Approvals Y/Y: -0.1% v +15.8% prior
• (HU) Hungary May Unemployment Rate: 3.4% v 3.5%e
• (TR) Turkey Jun Economic Confidence: 83.4 v 77.5 prior
• (CN) China Q1 Final Current Account: $49.0B v $58.6B prelim
• (SE) Sweden May Trade Balance (SEK): 8.3B v 1.2B prior
• (DE) Germany Jun CPI Brandenburg M/M:0.5 % v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.3% prior
• (DE) Germany Jun CPI Hesse M/M: 0.1% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.4% prior
• (DE) Germany Jun CPI Bavaria M/M: 0.4% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.6% prior
• (IT) Italy Jun Consumer Confidence Index: 109.6 v 111.4e; Manufacturing Confidence: 100.8 v 101.0e; Economic Sentiment: 99.3 v 100.2 prior
• (DE) Germany CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: 0.2% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.6% prior
• (PT) Portugal Jun Consumer Confidence Index: -8.3 v -9.0 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: 2.4 v 2.3 prior
• (EU) Euro Zone Jun Business Climate Indicator: 0.17 v 0.29e; Consumer Confidence: -7.2 v -7.2e; Economic Confidence: 103.3 v 104.8e; Industrial Confidence: -5.6 v -3.0e; Services Confidence: 11.0 v 12.4e

Fixed Income Issuance

• (DK) Denmark sold total DKK1.7B in 3-month and 6-month bills
• (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €5.0B vs. €4.0-5.0B indicated range in 5-year and 10-year BTP bonds
• Sold €2.25B vs. €1.75-2.25B indicated range in 1.75% July 2024 BTP bonds; Avg Yield: 1.34% v 1.81% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.48x v 1.78x prior
• Sold €2.75B vs. €2.25-2.75B indicated range in 3.00% Aug 2029 BTP; Avg Yield: 2.09% v 2.60% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.32x v 1.28x prior
• (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €1.0B vs. €0.75-1.0B indicated range in Jan 2025 CCTeu (Floating rate Note); Avg Yield: 1.60% v 1.95% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.74x v 2.35x prior

Looking Ahead

• (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to sell €4.0-5.0B in 5-year and 10-year BTP bonds
• (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to selll €0.75-1.0B in Jan 2025 CCTeu (Floating rate Note); Avg Yield: % v 1.95% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.35x prior
• 05:30 (ZA) South Africa PPI M/M: 0.5%e v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.4%e v 6.5 % prior
• 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-week bills
• 05:30 (PL) Poland to sell Bonds
• (DE) Germany Jun CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.5% prior
• (RO) Romania May M3 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 9.9% prior
• (BE) Belgium Jun CPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.9% prior
• 06:30 (IS) Iceland to sell 6-month Bills
• 06:00 (CA) Canada Jun CFIB Business Barometer: No est v 59.7 prior
• 07:00 (BR) Brazil Jun FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: 0.7%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 6.4%e v 6.9% prior
• 08:00 (DE) Germany Jun Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.4% prior
• 08:00 (DE) Germany Jun Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.3% prior
• 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index
• 08:30 (US) Q1 Final GDP Annualized Q/Q: No 3.2%e v 3.1% prelim; Personal Consumption: 1.3%e v 1.3% prelim
• 08:30 (US) Q1 Final GDP Price Index: 0.8%e v 0.8% prelim; Core PCE Q/Q: No est v 1.0% prelim
• 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 220Ke v 216K prior; Continuing Claims: 1.67Me v 1.662M prior
• 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
• 09:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Jun 21st: No est v $504.5B prior
• 09:00 (MX) Mexico May Trade Balance: -$1.0Be v $1.4B prior
• 10:00 (US) May Pending Home Sales M/M: +1.0%e v -1.5% prior; Y/Y: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior
• 10:00 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Q2 Inflation Report (QIR)
• 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
• 11:00 (US) Jun Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index: 1e v 4 prior
• 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week and 8-Week Bills
• 12:00 (AT) ECB's Nowotby (Austria) in Vienna
• 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 7-year Notes
• 14:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Rate unchanged at 8.25%
• 14:00 (BR) Brazil May Total Formal Job Creation: +65.5Ke v +129.6K prior
• (AR) Argentina Jun Consumer Confidence Index: No est v 36.5 prior
• (CO) Colombia May Industrial Confidence: No est v 4.4 prior; Retail Confidence: No est v 29.7 prior

It's all about the G20

We're seeing a slightly positive start to trading on Thursday, with investors possibly expressing some optimism ahead of the G20 meeting between Trump and Xi.

It's often not worth reading too much into these kinds of moves going into such a big event, especially when you look across a few days and see that we're not actually far from where we started the week. It's clear that investors are a little cautious when it comes to this meeting, given how talks collapsed previously and the fighting talk we've since seen from both sides.

Trump appeared very optimistic as he headed off to Osaka while warning that he's more than happy to impose tariffs if talks fail. Trump's dual role as both good cop and bad cop has become a common feature of these occasions though so people don't seem to be reading too much into this.

Instead, any optimism stems primarily from how much sense a deal makes for both countries, neither of which want to see large tariffs on all imports and exports. From a markets perspective, a complete breakdown may spur some near-term weakness but with central banks waiting in the wings and prepared to cut rates, they may continue to be well supported. Let's face it, the prospect of them has pushed US stocks back to record highs.

The US dollar shows mixed results against a basket of world currencies. Investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the G20 summit in Japan, which will start tomorrow. Financial market participants are counting on a breakthrough in the US-China trade relations. The US currency was supported by statements by US Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, that the US-China trade agreement was almost 100% done, and he believed that negotiations between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Japan would succeed. The US dollar index (#DX) closed yesterday in a positive zone (+0.08%).

Trump and Xi Jinping should meet on Saturday at the G20 summit. The result of this meeting will affect not only the world economy but also all financial markets that have been suspended for the last two years. According to the South China Morning Post, the United States and China intend to declare a truce in the trade war ahead of the G20 summit to resolve disputes during the meeting. The condition for holding a meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in Osaka was to delay the imposition of additional duties by the United States on Chinese goods.

The "black gold" prices have been declining after a significant increase the day before. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $59.00 per barrel.

Market Indicators

• Yesterday, there was a variety of trends in the US stock market: #SPY (-0.10%), #DIA (-0.02%), #QQQ (+0.47%).
• The 10-year US government bonds yield has been growing. Currently, the indicator is at the level of 2.06-2.07%.

The news feed on 2019.06.27:

• Data on US GDP at 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
• Pending home sales in the US at 17:00 (GMT+3:00).