Sample Category Title

Pivot (invalidation): 0.9915

Our preference Short positions below 0.9915 with targets at 0.9880 & 0.9855 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 0.9915 look for further upside with 0.9930 & 0.9950 as targets.

Comment As Long as the resistance at 0.9915 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.9880 remains high.

The coalition meeting in Italy overnight appeared to have gone well. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte's office said that he will work with the two deputy Prime Ministers, League leader Matteo Salvini and 5-Star Movement head Luigi Di Maio, and Economy Minister Giovanni Tria to draw up a strategy to avoid EU's Excessive Deficit Procedure.

Salvini said "All's well, it was a good meeting. Our shared goal is to avoid the infringement while safeguarding economic growth, employment, as well as tax cuts."

Di Maio said "It went well because we have set some goals: cutting taxes, approving the law on minimum wage and getting good results for Italians."

Pivot (invalidation): 108.35

Our preference Long positions above 108.35 with targets at 108.80 & 109.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 108.35 look for further downside with 108.15 & 107.95 as targets.

Comment The RSI calls for a new upleg.

China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang refused to confirm if there will be a Trump-Xi meeting at G20 in Osaka later this month. Instead, he just reiterated that stance that "China does not want to fight a trade war, but we are not afraid of fighting a trade war". Also, "if the United States only wants to escalate trade frictions, we will resolutely respond and fight to the end."

Yesterday, Trump said he and Chinese President Xi are "scheduled to have a meeting" at the G20 summit in Osaka. He then threatened, "We're expected to meet and if we do that's fine, and if we don't -- look, from our standpoint the best deal we can have is 25% on $600 billion."

Pivot (invalidation): 1.2700

Our preference Short positions below 1.2700 with targets at 1.2670 & 1.2655 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.2700 look for further upside with 1.2725 & 1.2745 as targets.

Comment The RSI lacks upward momentum.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.1325

Our preference Short positions below 1.1325 with targets at 1.1300 & 1.1290 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.1325 look for further upside with 1.1345 & 1.1360 as targets.

Comment The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 1.1325.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.22; (P) 137.83; (R1) 138.18; More...

GBP/JPY is staying in consolidation from 136.55 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral first. Upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 146.50 to 136.55 at 140.35 to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 136.55 will turn bias to the downside and extend the fall from 148.87 to 131.51 low.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY's medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) is still in progress. Break of 131.51 will target 122.36 (2016 low). Structure of such decline is corrective looking so far, arguing that it's just the second leg of consolidation from 122.36. Thus, we'd expect strong support from 122.36 to contain downside to bring reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 122.54; (P) 122.74; (R1) 122.86; More....

EUR/JPY's corrective rise from 120.78 has extending higher but upside is still expected to be limited by 123.73 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 122.10 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 120.78 first. Break of 120.78 will resume the fall from 127.50 and target 118.62 low next. However, sustained break of 123.73 will indicate short term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 127.50 resistance again.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 137.49 is still in progress with the cross staying inside long term falling channel. Break of 118.62 will extend the fall to 109.48 (2016 low). On the upside, break of 127.50 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1185; (P) 1.1197; (R1) 1.1210; More....

EUR/CHF recovers mildly today and consolidation from 1.1119 is extending. Intraday bias stays neutral first. In case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited below 1.1278 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 1.1119 will extend recent down trend to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.1173 from 1.1476 at 1.0962 next.

In the bigger picture, current development firstly suggests that down trend from 1.2004 is still in progress. More importantly, it's likely a long term down trend itself, rather than a correction. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1476 resistance holds. EUR/CHF could target 1.0629 support and below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1291; (P) 1.1311; (R1) 1.1332; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 1.1251 minor support holds. On the upside, above 1.1347 will target 1.1448 key resistance next. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, break of 1.1251 minor support will suggest that recovery from 1.1107 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.1107 low.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that a medium term bottom could be in place at 1.1107, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Decisive break of 1.1448 resistance would confirm this case. And stronger rebound would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1107 at 1.1660. At this point, it's early to judge whether rise from 1.1107 is a corrective move or the start of an medium term up trend. We'd look at the structure of the rebound to decide later. But in any case, for now, risk will remain on the upside as long as 1.1107 low holds.