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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3260; (P) 1.3280; (R1) 1.3316; More...

GBP/USD's really resumed by breaking through 1.3291 and intraday bias is back on the upside. Firm break of 1.3433 will confirm larger up trend resumption and target 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.2706 at 1.3813. On the downside, below 1.3277 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3433 are seen as a corrective pattern to the up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2099 could be the second leg. Overall, GBP/USD should target 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high) on break of 1.3433 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1314; (P) 1.1363; (R1) 1.1449; More...

EUR/USD's rally resumed by breaking through 1.1472 today and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise from 1.0176 should target 161.8% projection of 1.0358 to 1.0953 from 1.0731 at 1.1694 next. On the downside, below 1.1357 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0776) holds.

Dollar weakened broadly in thin holiday trading today, dragged down by mounting concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve. Investor anxiety escalated after White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett indicated that US President Donald Trump is continuing to explore whether he can remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While the legal basis for such a move is untested and unclear, the mere suggestion of political interference in the central bank’s policy process has significantly undermined market confidence.

This brewing conflict comes amid already heightened uncertainty surrounding US trade policy. Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs, most recently through sweeping reciprocal levies, has put the Fed in a difficult position. Officials including Powell have repeatedly warned that tariffs could simultaneously fuel inflation and suppress economic growth, increasing the risk of stagflation. A sudden crystallization of the threat to Fed independence would not only worsen market volatility but also raise tail risks, potentially triggering a broader loss of faith in US assets.

Powell, for his part, has firmly defended the Fed’s independence. In remarks last week, he asserted, “We’re never going to be influenced by any political pressure… Our independence is a matter of law.” He also reminded that Fed governors “are not removable except for cause,” and emphasized the long, fixed terms that protect against political meddling. While the "cause" does not typically include policy disagreements, the intensifying standoff with the White House has cast a long shadow over US institutions. Ad for now, the markets appear to be voting with their feet—out of the Dollar and into alternatives.

Euro has emerged as the biggest gainer in today’s subdued session, extending recent strength as investors seek refuge in the most liquid and viable alternative to Dollar. With its deep capital markets, relative political stability, and credible central bank, Euro is increasingly seen as a safer store of value amid the implosion of confidence in US governance. Other safe havens like the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc are also holding firm, but it is Euro and Gold that are leading the charge.

Gold prices have surged to fresh record highs, fueled by a flight to safety and fears of policy instability. Technically, Gold is still in upside acceleration as suggested in D MACD. Despite overbought condition, there is no sign of topping yet. Decisive break of 161.8% projection of 2293.45 to 2789.92 from 2584.24 at 3387.52 will pave the way to 200% projection at 3577.18 next. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 3167.60 resistance turned support holds, in case of retreat.

China holds benchmark lending rates steady

China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive month today. One-year loan prime rate was held at 3.1% and the five-year LPR steady at 3.6%.

Subdued domestic inflation and growing global trade headwind, particularly the latest wave of tariff threats from the US, argue in favor of further policy easing However, PBoC appears reluctant to move ahead of Fed.

A premature rate cut could exacerbate downward pressure on the yuan, fueling capital outflows and financial instability.

April PMIs to gauge global business fallout from tariffs

The spotlight in the coming week will be on the flash PMI readings for April, covering major economies including Australia, Japan, the Eurozone, the UK, and the U.S. These surveys will serve as a timely barometer for assessing how global business conditions have responded to the surge in trade tensions following US President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement earlier this month.

March PMIs had already reflected some of the early impact of trade policy uncertainty, particularly in North America. Notable takeaways included rising manufacturing input costs in the US and early signs of softening trade flows.

The upcoming data will be critical in identifying how deeply those measures are now affecting business conditions. Analysts will be watching for deterioration in new orders, delivery times, and price components—key indicators of disrupted supply chains and cost pass-through.

Beyond the PMIs, a series of supporting data will also shape market sentiment. US durable goods orders will be closely watched for signs of weakening beyond autos. Germany's Ifo business climate and expectations index will give a read on sentiment in Europe’s largest economy. Additionally, retail sales data from both the UK and Canada could reflect how consumers are responding to expected price shifts and economic uncertainty.

Here are some highlights for the week:

• Monday: China loan prime rate decision.
• Tuesday: Canada IPPI and RMPI; Eurozone consumer confidence.
• Wednesday: Australia PMIs; JapanPMIs, tertiary industry index; Eurozone PMIs, trade balance; UK PMIs; US PMIs, new home sales, Fed's Beige Book.
• Thursday: Japan corporate service prices; Germany Ifo; US jobless claims, durable goods, existing home sales.
• Friday: Japan Tokyo CPI; UK Gfk consumer sentiment, retail sales; Canada retail sales.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1314; (P) 1.1363; (R1) 1.1449; More...

EUR/USD's rally resumed by breaking through 1.1472 today and intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rise from 1.0176 should target 161.8% projection of 1.0358 to 1.0953 from 1.0731 at 1.1694 next. On the downside, below 1.1357 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another rally.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0776) holds.

Key Highlights

• EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.1250 resistance.
• A short-term bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.1345 on the 4-hour chart.
• GBP/USD gained pace and traded to a new multi-month high above 1.3300.
• Gold prices traded to a new record high and started a consolidation phase.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro remained in a bullish zone above 1.1250 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD cleared the 1.1350 and 1.1380 levels before there was a consolidation phase.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled well above the 1.1320 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). There is also a short-term bullish trend line forming with support at 1.1345.

If there is a fresh increase, the pair could face resistance near the 1.1420 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.1450 level. The main resistance is now forming near the 1.1500 zone.

A close above the 1.1500 level could set the tone for another increase. In the stated case, the pair could even clear the 1.1550 resistance. On the downside, immediate support sits near the 1.1435 level and the trend line.

The next key support sits near the 1.1280 level. Any more losses could send the pair toward the 1.1220 level, where the bulls might take a stand.

Looking at GBP/USD, the bulls remained in action and were able to push the pair to a new multi-month high above the 1.3300 resistance.

Upcoming Economic Events:

• IMF Meeting.

China kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive month today. One-year loan prime rate was held at 3.1% and the five-year LPR steady at 3.6%.

Subdued domestic inflation and growing global trade headwind, particularly the latest wave of tariff threats from the US, argue in favor of further policy easing However, PBoC appears reluctant to move ahead of Fed.

A premature rate cut could exacerbate downward pressure on the yuan, fueling capital outflows and financial instability.

Monday, Apr 21, 2025

Tuesday, Apr 22, 2025

Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025

Thursday, Apr 24, 2025

Friday, Apr 25, 2025

WTI oil has registered the second weekly gain (the contract was up 3.3% this week), lifted by growing optimism over easing trade tensions between the USA and the European Union and signals of possible deal, new US sanctions on Iran and initial positive signals in US - China trade relations.

Reversal signal is developing on daily and weekly charts, as bounce from new 4-year low ($55.12) has so far retraced over 50% of $72.27/$55.12 bear-leg, while Doji morning star pattern has formed on weekly chart.

However, recovery may face increased headwinds as technical studies on daily chart are predominantly negative and still fully bearish on weekly, suggesting that much stronger work at the upside is still required to improve the picture (sustained break above cracked Fibo 50%, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen at $63.63, seen as minimum requirement).

Also, fundamental factors that support current recovery would be countered by the latest downgrade of oil prices and demand growth by OPEC, Energy Information Administration, in light that existing economic crisis could be deepened if negotiations fail, and trade war escalates.

Res: 64.16; 65.22; 65.72; 66.08.
Sup: 63.32; 62.65; 61.67; 60.00.

Oil ended the week up over 4%, continuing the rebound that began on 9 April following a strong rally due to tariff postponement. Prices managed to recover from 4-year lows by more than 16%, which is impressive and brings the market closer to bullish territory. However, the situation currently appears more like a rebound before a possible further decline than a reliable reversal.

Brent remains below the key level of $71, which has served as strong support for two years and may now become equally strong resistance. WTI is similarly holding below $66, where buying has stabilised the market for almost four consecutive years, preventing it from consolidating below this level.

The April sell-off was initially triggered by alarmist concerns over tariff announcements but was also fuelled by a shift in OPEC+ tactics. The cartel raised production quotas and lowered selling prices for Asia, shifting the focus from price-targeting to the competition for market share.

Curiously, this occurs at a time when U.S. production exhibits a weakening trend. Average production rates have fallen below 13.5 million bpd after 13.6 million bpd were observed for most of March. The oil rig count has decreased to 480-481 over the past fortnight, compared to 486 in the previous month and a half. This figure has plateaued since last July, and at current or even lower prices, a further decline is expected as upstream investment becomes less attractive.

At present levels, oil has room for a slight 2-3% rise, but a firm foothold above $66 for WTI and $71 for Brent would signal bullish sentiment. Only a sustained move above the 50-week moving average, currently at $72 for WTI and $76 for Brent, will provide the final confirmation of the bull market’s return.

Bearish factors remain robust: alongside the longer-term technical picture, markets are under pressure from the shock of tariff wars, which is suppressing business activity and slowing energy consumption growth.

The EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate around 1.1371 this Friday, with trading activity subdued due to Good Friday market closures in the US and most of Europe.

Key Drivers of EUR/USD Movement

With low trading volumes, the pair’s movements remain constrained, leaving it near its three-year peak. Recent USD weakness stemmed from two primary factors:

• Concerns over the impact of US tariff policies.
• Growing political uncertainty under the Trump administration.

However, sentiment appears to be stabilising as the US engages in trade discussions with key partners, including Japan and Italy. President Trump hinted yesterday at a potential easing of trade tensions with China, suggesting he may halt further tariff hikes and even consider reductions in the future.

Simultaneously, Trump has sharpened his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, expressing frustration over the slow pace of interest rate cuts. He emphasised, however, that Powell’s resignation is unlikely to happen soon.

On the data front, yesterday’s US jobless claims fell to a two-month low, reflecting the enduring strength of the labour market. Meanwhile, the ECB cut interest rates for the seventh consecutive time, adding further nuance to the currency dynamic.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart Outlook

• The pair is consolidating near 1.1333, with a potential Triangle pattern forming.
• A decline to 1.1280 is anticipated, followed by a possible rebound to 1.1370 before another drop toward 1.1250.
• This scenario is technically supported by the MACD, where the signal line remains above zero but points firmly downward.

H1 Chart Outlook

• The pair completed a downward wave to 1.1264, then corrected to 1.1412.
• Today, focus remains on a further decline to 1.1250. A breach here could open the door for a third wave of decline, targeting 1.1080, with potential extension to 1.1030.
• The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line sits below 80 and trends sharply downward toward 20.

Conclusion

 With markets quiet for Good Friday, EUR/USD remains range-bound. However, technical indicators suggest downside risks in the near term, contingent on key support breaks. Traders should monitor US-China trade developments and Fed policy rhetoric for directional cues.