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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8597; (P) 0.8622; (R1) 0.8648; More...

EUR/GBP is still bounded in consolidation from 0.8472 and outlook is unchanged. While further recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited below 0.8681 resistance. On the downside, decisive break of 0.8472 will confirm resumption of down trend from 0.9101 and target 61.8% projection of 0.9101 to 0.8472 from 0.8681 at 0.8292 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 0.9306 (2017 high) is seen as a corrective move. Current development suggests that it's extending through 0.8312 support towards 50% retracement of 0.6935 (2015 low) to 0.9306 at 0.8121. We'll look for strong support around there to contain downside to complete the correction. But for now, break of 0.8681 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5979; (P) 1.6051; (R1) 1.6117; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the upside with focus on 1.6122 key resistance. Decisive break will confirm the bullish view that correction from 1.6765 has completed with three waves down to 1.5683. In this case, further rise should be seen back to retest 1.6765 high. On the downside, break of 1.5905 support is needed to indicate completion of the rise from 1.5683. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Pivot (invalidation): 109.70

Our preference Long positions above 109.70 with targets at 110.10 & 110.30 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 109.70 look for further downside with 109.50 & 109.35 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further upside.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.2995

Our preference Long positions above 1.2995 with targets at 1.3035 & 1.3060 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.2995 look for further downside with 1.2970 & 1.2945 as targets.

Comment The RSI has just landed on its neutrality area at 50% and is turning up.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1359; (P) 1.1396; (R1) 1.1420; More...

EUR/CHF is staying in consolidation from 1.1476 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1162 at 1.1484 will confirm completion of corrective fall from 1.2004. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1682 and above. On the downside, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.1347) will pave the way back to retest 1.1162 low.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we're slight favoring the case that corrective fall from 1.2004 has completed after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154. Decisive break of 1.1501 resistance should confirm and target 1.1713 resistance next. And, firm break of 1.1154 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at worst.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.1210

Our preference Long positions above 1.1210 with targets at 1.1245 & 1.1260 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.1210 look for further downside with 1.1190 & 1.1170 as targets.

Comment Technically the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50.

Gold prices rose 0.28% on the day on Thursday. Price gains came as news about China's trade deal continued to pour in. With no clear outlook, the precious metal was seen taking advantage of the market conditions. Price is seen consolidating near the 1285 level currently waiting for further developments on the trade talks.

Can XAUUSD Post Further Gains?

The price action in XAUUSD suggests that traders are currently waiting for more clarity on the outcome of the US and China trade talks. With price near the resistance level of 1285 and brief attempts to break past this level, we expect XAUUSD to maintain this holding pattern. There is scope that the precious metal could eventually give way and fall back into the range. The lower support near the 1270 handle remains the key downside for the moment.

WTI crude oil was down 0.64% on Thursday. The declines came despite rising tensions surrounding Iran. The Iranian regime announced that it would partially withdraw from the nuclear treaty. The remaining parties, including Germany and the UK, rejected the threats leading to a stalemate.

Will Oil Push Higher?

Crude oil prices have managed to post a modest recovery from Thursday's declines. Price is currently trading just below the 62.85 level of resistance. Therefore, it is likely that we could see prices testing the resistance level more firmly before reversing course. In the near term, we expect oil to maintain its range within 62.85 resistance and 60.33 support.

The euro currency posted modest gains on the day, rising 0.20%. The producer price index rose 0.2% on the month in April, missing estimates. The trade deficit for March was at $50.0 billion, slightly higher than the median expectations. Data from the eurozone is sparse with only the regional industrial production figures due later today.

EURUSD Steady at 1.1226 Resistance

The currency pair rallied initially to intraday highs of 1.1250 before pulling back to settle at 1.1226 resistance. Although price action has moved to the upper range of the corridor, a follow-through is required. A daily close above 1.1226 could confirm the upside bias as the euro will then have to break past 1.1246 resistance. There is the scope that the common currency could give up the gains and move back into the range.

The GBP/USD remains in an indecisive spot from a wave perspective. The main aspect to keep an eye on is whether price bounces or breaks at the top (red) resistance line of the downtrend channel. A bearish continuation, especially below the 100% Fibonacci level, could indicate an impulsive wave 3 pattern whereas a reversal could indicate a bullish wave count instead.

The GBP/USD has made a bullish retracement back to the top of the downtrend channel and the 144 ema, which is a key decision for a bearish bounce or bullish breakout. A bearish reaction could indicate a continuation of the wave 3 (green) whereas a breakout could either be part of a larger 4 (green) correction or the start of a new uptrend (green arrow), which will depend whether price can break above the 50-61.8% Fibonacci levels or not. Fro the moment, a bearish breakout seems the most likely scenario.