Sample Category Title

Bitcoin continues to build on its strong weekly trading gains, with the BTCUSD pair now targeting the $5,500 resistance level. The Ichimoku indicator on the daily time frame is highlighting that Bitcoin has now broken above key technical resistance, at $5,290. The $5,700 level now offers the strongest form of technical resistance if BTCUSD bulls can move price above the $5,620 level.

The BTCUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the $5,290 level, key intraday resistance is found at the $5,500 and $5,620 levels.

If the BTCUSD pair trades under the $5,280 level, sellers may test towards the $5,100 and $4,900 support levels.

GBPJPY had a strong pullback on the downtrend line of the descending triangle around 145.85, which has been holding since March 14, sending prices slightly below the 20- and 40-simple moving averages (SMAs) in the 4-hour chart. From the technical point of view, the price could lose some momentum in the short-term as the RSI is flattening below the 50 level and the stochastic oscillator is ready for a bearish cross between the %K and %D lines.

If the 23.6% Fibonacci of the upleg from 132.50 to 148.85 near 145.00 proves easy to get through, the spotlight will turn to the 143.70 strong support zone. The bears would need to clear this area to pushthe price towards the 143.25 barrier and the 38.2% Fibonacci of 142.60.

On the other hand, a rebound on the 23.6% Fibonacci could send prices above the triangle formation towards the immediate resistance of 146.50, surpassing the 20- and 40-day SMAs. Should the price overcome that handle, resistance could run up to the 148.40 barrier and also the four-month high of 148.85 which may also be a challenge for the bulls.

In the medium-term picture, GBPJPY should resume its upside trend above the four-month high of 148.85, however a dive below the descending triangle pattern would bring the bearish outlook into play.

Oil prices were down approximately 4% yesterday dropping the most in single day for 2019. Oil traders seemed eager to exit their long positions after EIA data on Wednesday indicated a massive stockpile building up. The stockpile indicated by the EIA was figure just below 10 million barrels, while analysts have various opinions to its appearance. From our point of view this could be a reaction from the US towards OPEC’s lowering oil production, which has dropped to a four year low in April 2019. On another front countries supplying Iranian Oil are having a harsh time of replacing it. More specifically sources state China has a shipment of Iranian Oil worth 1 billion USD on one of its ports. However, they are unable to retrieve it due to difficulties brought forward on the payment method, as the US could sanction the Mainland. Oil prices moved lower yesterday breaking below our (R1) 63.10 support line which has now turned to resistance. If the market persists its selling interest for the commodity we may see it drop to below the (S1) 61.55 support level and aim for the 60.30 support line. Below the psychological threshold of 60 USD per barrel, it could be an indication that the market has reversed from bullish to bearish bias. In a bullish scenario we may see WTI surpass (R1) 63.10 resistance level and aim for the (R2) 64.70 resistance level. From there on the next level could be the (R3) 66.60 resistance level.

Major currencies inspection and current status

Positive news from the previous days kept the USD higher. Analysts believe Friday could be a good closing for the greenback with a strong Jobs report expected. The Australian and New Zealand dollars displayed some weakness in the previous days as their central banks prepare for meetings next week with a probability of a rate cut. The EUR moved lower as financial releases yesterday provided a lukewarm economic picture. However the financial releases also indicate the economic activity is the Eurozone is steady. EURUSD dropped lower in the previous session and is currently trading almost exactly on line with our (S1) 1.1175 support level. Reviewing EURUSDs trading activity in the last week of April we can see the currency is somewhat higher at the moment, yet much of the price action could have been affected by the USD strength. If the currency comes under purchasing interest we may see it aim for the (R1) 1.1220 resistance level and even surpass it aiming for the (R2) 1.1260 resistance barrier. If the pair is to be sold we may see it move below the (S1) 1.1175 support level and aim for the (S2) 1.1125 support level.

Other economic highlights, today and early tomorrow

In the European morning, we get from the UK U.K. Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and the Eurozone’s Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY Preliminary both for April. In the European afternoon, we get the US employment report for April. Later on in the US session we get the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for April. As for speakers please note that Chicago Fed President Evans and FOMC Member Clarida Speak.

EUR/USD 1H

Support: 1.1175 (S1), 1.1125 (S2), 1.1075 (S3)
Resistance: 1.1220 (R1), 1.1260 (R2), 1.1300 (R3)

WTICash Daily

Support: 61.55 (S1), 60.30 (S2), 58.50 (S3)
Resistance: 63.10 (R1), 64.70 (R2), 66.60 (R3)

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.1161

The downtrend is intact, heading towards 1.1110 low. Initial  resistance lies at 1.1190 and crucial is 1.1217.

USD/JPY

Current level - 111.49

My outlook is bullish, for a rise towards 112.40 high. Crucial on the downside is 111.00 low.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.3021

Allow a continuation of the slide, towards 1.2960 support. Crucial on the upside is 1.3080 high.

We see dollar strong ahead of US NFP report which is expected to come out at 181K, so we can expect strong dollar to resume to even higher prices if we get number above 200k. Below 170k, we will most likely see a pullback.

Technically speaking, there us a lot of short-term patterns on different markets that suggests more dollar gains. First important market that we have too keep an eye on is 10 year US note which is turning down from the corrective channel so more weakness can be coming which means yields may rise and dollar may follow, especially against the JPY which is showing the bullish path.

10 Year US Notes, 1h

USDJPY, 1h

The Euro holds in red for the third straight day and extends weakness through strong Fibo support at 1.1170 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.1111/1.1264 upleg) in early European trading on Friday.

Wednesday’s bearish candle with long upper shadow that was left after Fed, continues to weigh, adding to bearish daily studies.

Bears probe below the base of thick 4-hr cloud (1.1164) and eye Fibo support at 1.1147 (76.4%) which marks the last obstacle on the way towards key support at 1.1111 (2019 low).

EU inflation data (Apr 1.6% f/c vs 1.4% Mar) is in focus in European session, with full calendar in the US session promising a lot of action.

US jobs report is key event today, with general expectations in the market for better than expected results that keep the dollar underpinned ahead of data release.

US unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8% and Non-Farm payrolls are forecasted for 179K new jobs in Apr vs 182K previous month, with markets seeing chances of even stronger numbers.

Wages will be in focus (Apr 3.4% f/c vs 3.3% Mar) as strong reading in Apr would additionally boost the dollar, but any release below 3.3% would have negative impact.

Res: 1.1177, 1.1184, 1.1219, 1.1228
Sup: 1.1158, 1.1147, 1.1111, 1.1075

• US dollar extends gains ahead of today's nonfarm payrolls report
• Aussie hits 4-month low as odds rise of RBA rate cut next week
• Oil prices slump on oversupply concerns as US output continues to surge

Dollar stands tall ahead of NFP report

There was little to hold back the US dollar on Friday as recent solid US data and a not-so-dovish Fed have lessened the odds of a rate cut before the year-end. Investors sharply adjusted their rate cut bets following the FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the current weak patch in inflation was likely due to transitory factors. The yields on US Treasury notes jumped higher after Powell's remarks, providing the dollar with strong near-term support.

Going into today's all-important nonfarm payrolls report, the median forecast is that the US economy added 185k jobs in April. However, even if the payrolls number beats expectations, it would need to be backed by an equally strong average earnings figure. Average hourly earnings growth has been stuck between 3.2%-3.4% since late last year and is expected to have edged up to 3.3% in April. Any signs that wage growth is moderating could see much of this week's moves in the currency and bond markets being reversed, with investors once again pricing in a higher chance of a rate cut by the Fed.

For now, though, the greenback is trading comfortably near 2-year highs, with the dollar index rising to 97.88 ahead of the European open.

Aussie and kiwi on the slide in anticipation of dovish RBA and RBNZ meetings

The Australian and New Zealand dollars remained on the backfoot on Friday as traders continued to speculate that central banks in Australia and New Zealand could cut rates as early as their respective policy meetings next week.

Inflation in both countries eased more than expected in the first quarter, while in Australia, there was more poor data this morning. Building approvals slumped by 15.5% month-on-month in March and the AIG services PMI fell deeper into contractionary territory. The aussie hit a 4-month low of $0.6983 after the data, though the kiwi managed to erase its losses to stand flat at $0.6616.

The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce their latest policy decisions next Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, with investors not ruling out surprise rate cuts.

Bullish dollar weighs on euro and pound

The euro was trading far below its peak of $1.1264 touched prior to Wednesday's Fed decision as encouraging Eurozone GDP numbers were outshone by the relatively upbeat tone of Powell's press conference.

The single currency's best chance of regaining some positive momentum is today's flash CPI readings for April. A small uptick in Eurozone inflation, especially in core CPI, would provide further evidence that the worst is over for the bloc's economy.

Sterling has also been drifting lower since the Fed meeting, though it's held above $1.30 as its declines have been more limited due to rumours that the UK government could agree to accept a customs union plan with the EU in order to win Labour's backing for the Brexit deal. With both the Conservatives and Labour suffering heavy losses overnight in local elections in England and Northern Ireland, Britain's two main parties might now be more pressed to find a solution to the Brexit impasse for fear of being punished further by voters.

There was also support for the pound from yesterday's Bank of England policy meeting when Governor Mark Carney warned markets that the probability of a rate hike in the coming months was greater than that implied by the markets. The immediate focus for the pound now is the services PMI coming out of the UK later today.

Oil under pressure from soaring US production

Outside of forex markets, oil was a notable mover as prices fell sharply yesterday amid fresh fears of oversupply. US crude stocks jumped by a massive 9.9 million barrels last week and output hit a new record high of 12.3 million barrels per day. There's also reports that Saudi Arabia could raise output in June. Rising production from the US has helped ease some of the supply constraints from OPEC's output restrictions as well as from sanctions on Venezuelan and Iranian exports.

WTI oil recovered slightly from yesterday's one-month low of $60.95 per barrel, while Brent crude was also off its lows to trade around $70.35 a barrel.

The precious metal fell 0.56% on the day on Thursday. However, by the session’s close, gold prices pulled back, consolidating near the 200-day moving average. The rebound in gold prices comes amid reports that the US and China trade talks could hit some obstacles. However, traders are holding back ahead of the payrolls report due later today.

Can XAUUSD Correct Higher?

At the time of writing, XAUUSD is attempting to recover the losses from Thursday. Price action is back to retest the 1272 level. If the resistance level holds we expect to see the downtrend continue. Alternatively, if gold manages to close above the 1272 handle, price action could remain range bound. A daily close, relative to the 1272 region will key in the near term.

Crude oil prices posted sharp declines on Thursday as the price of WTI crude oil settled at 61.56. The declines in oil prices come as at the EIA’s weekly inventory report showed an increase in inventories. The declines marked a one-month low in oil. Volatility in the oil prices could continue as Iran’s sanctions on oil exports get underway.

Can Oil Recover from the Declines?

Oil prices could potentially rebound off the current lows. The recently breached support level at 62.85 could see price retesting this level. Establishing resistance here could signal a potential downside move. However, with the bearish momentum currently, oil prices could continue to extend declines. The downside could stall near the support region of 60.33.

The US dollar was maintaining its bullish momentum a day after the Fed meeting. This came as investors digested the FOMC meeting. The dollar gains came as the Fed was seen to be less dovish than expected, calling the current weakness in inflation transitory. Meanwhile, factory orders rose 1.9%. In the eurozone, the final manufacturing PMI rose only modestly to 47.9.

Can the EURUSD Extend Declines Lower?

The common currency ‘s rebound off the lows near 1.1140 saw price rallying. But, failure to build upon the momentum sent it lower just a day later. EURUSD is trading back within the range. The downside support at 1.1140 is likely to be tested in the near term. A rebound off this region could keep the currency pair supported, but further gains above 1.1226 are hard to come by.