Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8565; (P) 0.8582; (R1) 0.8595; More...

EUR/GBP's decline from 0.8681 is extending lower but it's staying in range of 0.8472/8722. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidation could be seen. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 0.8722 resistance. On the downside, firm break of 0.8472 will resume larger down trend for 0.8416 long term projection next. On the upside, though, sustained break of 0.8722 will suggest near term reversal and bring stronger rise back to 0.8840 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). Current fall from 0.9305 (2017 high) is a falling leg inside the pattern. Such decline could extend to 100% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8620 from 0.9101 at 0.8416 and possibly below. But for now, we'd expect strong support around 0.8312 support to contain downside and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5936; (P) 1.5964; (R1) 1.5989; More...

EUR/AUD is losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But further rise is in favor for 1.6122 resistance. We're still slightly favoring the bullish case that correction from 1.6765 has completed with three waves down to 1.5683. Decisive break of 1.6122 will confirm this bullish case and bring retest of 1.6765 high next. Near term outlook will now remain cautiously bullish as long as 1.5806 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1372; (P) 1.1400; (R1) 1.1416; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 1.1476 is extending. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1162 at 1.1484 will confirm completion of corrective fall from 1.2004. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.1682 and above. On the downside, sustained break of 55 day EMA (now at 1.1337) will pave the way back to 1.1162 low.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we're slight favoring the case that corrective fall from 1.2004 has completed after being supported by 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154. Decisive break of 1.1501 resistance should confirm and target 1.1713 resistance next. And, firm break of 1.1154 is needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at worst.

General Trend:

• HSBC’s Q1 results beat ests, shares rise
• Energy companies and Tencent decline in Hong Kong
• Guidance from Macquarie Group weighs on financial sector in Australia
• Energy shares decline on lower oil prices
• Amazon rises in after-hours trading, Buffett said to buy shares
• Australia April Services PMIs indicate easing contraction
• Brent Futures extend declines from Thursday
• Weaker oil prices weigh on Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)
• RBA due to meet on May 7th (Tuesday) and RBNZ to meet on May 8th (Wed)
• Markets in China and Japan were again closed on today’s session
• Japanese markets are due to return from Golden Week holiday on May 7th (Tuesday)
• Japan's exchanges are due to be closed between April 27 to May 6th for Golden Week

Headlines/Economic Data

Australia/New Zealand

• ASX 200 opened +0.1%
• (AU) AUSTRALIA MAR BUILDING APPROVALS M/M: -15.5% V -12.5%E; Y/Y: -27.3% V -25.1%E
• (AU) Australia Apr AiG Performance of Services Index: 46.5 v 44.8 prior (4th month in contraction or below 50)
• (AU) Australia Apr Final PMI Services 50.1 v 50.5 prelim

China/Hong Kong

• Shanghai Composite closed for holiday, Hang Seng opened -0.4%
• (CN) During Thursday’s NY Session, there was social media chatter about an Asia media report of potential US/China trade talk impasse
• (CN) Asian Development Bank President Nakao: ADB has begun considering raising interest rates on financing for countries that reach a certain income level, such as China - Nikkei

Japan

• Nikkei 225 closed for holiday
• (JP) Japan Ruling LDP party official said open to more spending if sales tax increase hurts growth - Japanese Press

Korea

• Kospi opened -0.2%
• (JP) Japan Government said to seek high-level meetings with North Korea in NYC - Korea Press

Other

• (ID) Indonesia Central Bank: Committed to maintain financial system stability; will ensure banks have sufficient liquidity
• (ID) Shares of Bank Danamon Indonesia [BDMN.ID] have declined by over 15% for the second straight session
• (PH) Philippines Central Bank (BSP) Gov Diokno: Rate cut inevitable, S&P rating upgrade may hasten rate cut

North America

• (US) Pres Trump: Stephen Moore is withdrawing consideration for the Fed
• JPMorgan April Global Manufacturing PMI: 50.3 v 50.5 prior (lowest reading since June 2016)
• Amazon [AMZN]: Berkshire Hathaway reportedly buying shares of Amazon - US Press
• Facebook [FB]: Said to be building cryptocurrency based payments system - US financial press

Europe

• (UK) Early results in the UK local elections show that both the Conservatives and Labour have lost support due to Brexit
• (IE) Ireland Apr PMI Services: 54.7 v 55.3 prior (3-month low)

Levels as of 1:20 ET

• Nikkei 225, closed, ASX 200 +0.1%, Hang Seng +0.1%; Shanghai Composite closed; Kospi -0.6%
• Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.2%; Nasdaq100 +0.4%, Dax +0.1%; FTSE100 +0.1%
• EUR 1.1179-1.1170 ; JPY 111.55-111.40 ; AUD 0.7010-0.6984 ;NZD 0.6627-0.6608
• Gold +0.1% at $1,273/oz; Crude Oil -0.3% at $61.62/brl; Copper +0.3% at $2.791/lb

The EUR/USD is looking for a bearish continuation after breaking yesterday’s low or after bouncing at the resistance trend line (red). A bullish break, however, is possible if price is able to break above the resistance (red) line. The main targets of the downtrend are the Fibonacci levels of wave 3 vs 1.

The EUR/USD broke the support trend line (dotted blue) but the break was slow and corrective. A bullish bounce could indicate that price will make a bullish retracement back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1, which are levels that could act as resistance. A bearish breakout confirms the current wave outlook whereas a bullish break above the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the wave 1-2 (orange) pattern.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1156; (P) 1.1187; (R1) 1.1204; More.....

EUR/USD's break of 1.1175 minor support suggests that corrective rise from 1.111 has completed at 1.1264 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for retesting 1.1111 low first. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.2555. Next target will be 100% projection of 1.1569 to 1.1176 from 1.1448 at 1.1105 next. On the upside, in case of another recovery, upside should be limited below 1.1324 resistance to bring down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 (2018 high) has just resumed. Current fall should now target 78.6% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.0813. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the downside, break of 1.1448 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3007; (P) 1.3044; (R1) 1.3069; More....

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point and further rise is mildly in favor. Current development suggests that corrective pull back from 1.3381 has completed at 1.2865. On the upside, above 1.3102 will target 1.3381 resistance first. Break will resume whole rebound from 1.2391. On the downside, though, break of 1.2865 will target 1.2773 key support instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) halted after hitting 1.2391. The structure of the rebound from 1.2391 suggests that it's a corrective move. In case of another rise, strong resistance could be seen around 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.2773 support will suggests that such corrective rise is completed and bring retest of 1.2391 low first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0173; (P) 1.0188; (R1) 1.0209; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. With 1.0130 support intact, further rise is expected. On the upside, break of 1.0237 will resume larger up trend to 1.0342 key resistance. However, sustained break of 1.0130 will confirm short term topping. In that case, deeper pull back would be seen back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.0064) and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 0.9186 is extending. Current rise should target 1.0342 resistance next. For now, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, until we see medium term upside acceleration. On the downside, break of 0.9879 support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of deep pull back.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.34; (P) 111.51; (R1) 111.67; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, risks remain on the downside as long as 112.40 resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 110.84 support will add to the case of bearish reversal and target 109.71 support and below. On the upside, firm break of 112.40 resistance will resume the rise from 104.69 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it's staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3444; (P) 1.3461; (R1) 1.3491; More...

USD/CAD is staying in range of 1.3376/3521 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.3521 will resume the whole rise from 1.3068 to retest 1.3664 high. On the downside, below 1.3376 will turn bias to the downside for 1.3274 support. Break will indicate that choppy rebound from 1.3068 has completed at 1.3521. Near term outlook will be turned bearish for retesting 1.3068 support.

In the bigger picture, USD/CAD is staying well inside medium term rising channel (support at 1.3255). Thus, the up trend from 1.2061 (2017 low) should be in progress. On the upside, decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 will pave the way to 78.6% retracement at 1.4127 next. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3068 support holds. However, sustained break the channel support will be the first sign of medium term reversal. Firm break of 1.3068 would confirm.