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Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.16; (P) 145.34; (R1) 145.47; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as it's staying in consolidation from 148.87. More sideway trading could be seen. For now, further rise remains in favor as long as 143.72 support holds. Decisive break of 149.48 key resistance will carry larger bullish in implications and target 156.58 resistance next. However, on the downside, sustained break of 143.72 will indicate near term reversal, after rejection by 149.48 key resistance. In that case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 141.00 support first.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 149.98 key resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed at 131.51 already. Rise from 131.51 is then seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). GBP/JPY should then target 156.59 and above. However, rejection by 149.98 will retain medium term bearishness and could extend the fall from 156.59 through 131.51 to 122.36.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 125.80; (P) 125.94; (R1) 126.14; More....

EUR/JPY breached 125.61 support but recovered quickly. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of 125.61 resistance turned support will indicate completion of rebound from 123.56. And consolidation from 127.50 is staring the third leg. Intraday bias will then be turned down to the downside for 123.65 support. On the upside, though, above 126.79 will target 127.50 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of completion of the down trend from 137.49 (2018 high) yet. In case of an extension, break of 118.62 will target 109.03/114.84 long term support zone. However, break of 127.50 will solidify the case of medium term bullish reversal. Further decisive break medium term channel resistance will affirm reversal and target 133.12 key resistance and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8654; (P) 0.8667; (R1) 0.8692; More...

EUR/GBP is staying in consolidation from 0.8474 and intraday bias remains neutral. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.8722 resistance to bring down trend resumption. On the downside, firm break of 0.8474 will resume larger down trend for 0.8416 long term projection next. On the upside, though, sustained break of 0.8722 will suggest near term reversal and bring stronger rise back to 0.8840 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). Current fall from 0.9305 (2017 high) is a falling leg inside the pattern. Such decline could extend to 100% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8620 from 0.9101 at 0.8416 and possibly below. But for now, we'd expect strong support around 0.8312 support to contain downside and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5727; (P) 1.5759; (R1) 1.5805; More...

EUR/AUD recovered after hitting 1.5683 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Near term outlook remains bearish as long as 1.5853 resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.5683 will extend the fall from 1.6765 to 61.8% projection of 1.6765 to 1.5721 from 1.6122 at 1.5477. However, firm break of 1.5853 will suggests short term bottoming and bring stronger rise back to 1.6122 resistance.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will still remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1409; (P) 1.1425; (R1) 1.1451; More...

EUR/CHF's rally extends to as high as 1.1439 so far. Intraday bias stays is back on the upside for 1.1444 key resistance. Decisive break of 1.1444 will indicate larger bullish reversal. EUR/CHF should target 1.1501 resistance first. On the downside, however, break of 1.1366 support will indicate rejection from 1.1444 key resistance. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.1154 long term fibonacci support.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 1.1444 resistance with current rebound. Decisive break there will indicate completion of the decline from 1.2004, with support from 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154. In this case, further rise should be seen to 1.1713 resistance next. On the downside, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 is now needed to confirm down trend resumption. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at worst.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1243; (P) 1.1253; (R1) 1.1269; More.....

EUR/USD recovered after hitting 1.1226 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, below 1.1226 will target 1.1176 key support. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend form 1.2555. For now, near term outlook will be cautiously bearish as long as 1.1324 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD has been losing downside momentum around 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2016 low) to 1.2555 (2018 high) at 1.1186. But for now, there is no clear sign of medium term reversal yet. Downside from 1.2555 is expected to resume sooner or later as long as 1.1569 structural resistance holds. Decisive break of 1.1186. could pave the way back to 1.0339 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2968; (P) 1.2985; (R1) 1.2994; More....

GBP/USD gyrated lower but stays in the consolidation pattern from 1.3381. Intraday bias remains neutral first. For now, further rally is still mildly in favor with 1.2960 support intact. On the upside, decisive break of 1.3381 resistance will resume whole rise from 1.2391. Next target will be 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. However, on the downside, sustained break of 1.2960 will indicate that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.4376 (2018 high) should have completed at 1.2391. Rise from 1.2391 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1946 (2016 low). Further rise could be seen through 1.4376 in medium term. On the downside, though, break of 1.2773 support will dampen this view. Focus will be turned back to 1.2391 low and break will resume the fall from 1.4376 to 1.1946.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0140; (P) 1.0151; (R1) 1.0167; More...

USD/CHF is losing some upside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But with 1.0130 minor support intact, intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rally should target 100% projection of 0.9716 to 1.0124 from 0.9879 at 1.0287 next. On the downside, below 1.0130 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rise.

In the bigger picture, medium term up trend from 0.9186 is extending. Current rise should target 1.0342 resistance next. For now, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside, until we see medium term upside acceleration. On the downside, break of 0.9879 support is needed to indicate reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of deep pull back.

STOCKS

Equities can consolidate or may even dip in the near-term before a fresh leg of upmove begins.

Dow (26511.05, -48.49, -0.18%) was stuck in a narrow range around 26500 yesterday. The broader outlook remains bullish for a test of 26750. But as mentioned yesterday, an intermediate dip to 26250 cannot be ruled out before we see a rise to 26750.

DAX (12222.39, +69.32, +0.57%) was closed yesterday for Easter Monday. A key resistance is around 12275. A pull-back from there can drag the index lower to 12100-12000 in the coming days.

Nikkei (22158.50, -73.60, -0.33%) has been consolidating between 22050 and 22350. A break below 22050 can take the index lower to 21900. On the other hand a strong rise past 22350 can target 22700. The bias is bullish for the index to breach 22350 in the coming days.

Shanghai (3191.38, -23.66, -0.74%) has come-off sharply from its resistance at 3280. A test of 3150 looks likely. The 3150-3280 sideways range remains intact.

Sensex (38645.18, -495.10, -1.26%) and Nifty (11594.45, -158.35, -1.35%) have tumbled much more than the expected levels of 39000 and 11700 respectively. Immediate support is at 38500 on Sensex and 11550 on Nifty. A bounce from there can trigger a relief rally to 39000 and 11700 on the Sensex and Nifty respectively.

COMMODITIES

Oil has spiked following the US ending the Iran sanction waivers. But a crucial resistance is coming up for oil which can halt the current rally and trigger a corrective fall. Gold may consolidate sideways before resuming its downtrend. Silver remains stuck in a narrow range. Copper trades above a key support.

Gold (1275) rose to test 1280 as expected yesterday and has come-off from there. It can consolidate between 1270 and 1283 for some time before the overall downtrend resumes towards 1265 and 1260.

Silver (15.01) retains its narrow 14.90-15.10 sideways range. A breakout on either side of 15.10 or 14.90 will decide whether silver will go up to 15.20 or fall to 14.80.

Copper (2.91) is hovering above the crucial 2.90-2.88 support zone. A bounce in the coming sessions will take copper higher to 2.96 again. The outlook will turn negative for copper if it declines decisively below 2.88.

Brent (74.32) has surged breaking above the curcial Fibonacci retracement resistance level of 72.67. A test of 75.50-76 looks likely in the coming days. However, strong resistance is poised around 76 which may have the potential to halt the current rally. A pull-back from there can drag Brent lower to 73-72.5

WTI (65.90) has risen towards 66 as expected. Next crucial resistance is around 67 which can halt the rally and trigger a corrective fall to 65-64.

FOREX

Lack of immediate directional clarity on Euro and Dollar Index exists just now. Dollar Yen could either hold below 112 or try and test 112.50-113 in the medium term. USDCNY and USDINR could have some scope of moving up in the coming sessions.

The Dollar Index (97.33) is holding below resistance at 97.50 just now and while that holds, we could see a fall in Dollar Index towards immediate support near 97 over the next couple of sessions. Above 97.50, upper resistance at 97.75 could be tested. A sharp break on either side of the 97-97.50/75 region would be important to determine the direction in the longer run.

The Euro (1.1248) is holding below resistance at 1.1260/65 which could possibly limit further upside for the next few sessions. While Euro also looks strongly bearish for the medium term towards 1.12, it would have to be seen if the Dollar Index moves above 97.50.

The Euro-Yen (125.74) saw very narrow movement in the last 2-sessions but could move up to test 126.50 while above immediate support at 125.50/40.

Dollar-Yen (111.78) is stuck in a narrow range just below immediate resistance near 112 and has been trading along the trend resistance since the last 1-week. While the resistance is unable to produce a rejection towards 111 or lower, we need to be careful of any movement signaling a break above 112. On the weekly candles there is scope of rising towards 113. Note that 112.0-112.50-113 are important resistance levels and indicates limited upside for USDJPY in the medium term.

The Aussie (0.7127) could find support near 0.7125-0.7100 region which could take it higher in the near term to levels above 0.72. Failure to bounce from 0.71 could be vulnerable to a fall towards 0.7050. For now we prefer 0.71 to hold.

Chinese Yuan (6.7117) is trading below immediate daily trend resistance at 6.7140. A break on the upside would be crucial to signal a possible upmove in the medium term.

Dollar-Rupee (69.68) while sustains above 69.50 has a possibility to move higher towards 70.0-70.20 in the near term. Only an immediate fall below 69.50 could take it lower towards 69.25/00 before a rally towards 70.00/20 comes into the picture.

INTEREST RATES

The US yields are slightly higher today. The 2Yr (2.39%), 5Yr (2.38%), 10Yr (2.58%) and 30Yr (2.98%) are up by 1bps. The 30 Yr has immediate trend resistance at current levels and while that holds, the 30YR could come off towards 2.95-2.90% levels in the near term.

The German 2Yr (-0.572%), 5Yr (-0.394%), 10Yr (0.026%) and 30Yr (0.679%) are almost stable and could face rejection from current levels leading to an eventual fall in the yields. The 10YR could target -0.1% in the near term.

The 10Yr GOI (7.6228%) saw a volatile session yesterday testing a high of 7.6455% on the upside. 7.65/68% is an immediate resistance and while that holds, the 10Yr could fall towards 7.55%.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.86; (P) 111.93; (R1) 112.00; More...

USD?JPY breached 111.69 minor support briefly but quickly recovered. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, sustained break of 112.13 will resume whole rise from 104.69 for 100 % projection of 109.71 to 111.82 and 110.84 at 112.95 first. On the downside, firm break of 111.69 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 110.84 support. Break will bring deeper fall back to 109.71 support.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/JPY remains a bit mixed as it's staying inside falling channel from 118.65, but there are signs of bullish reversal. On the upside, break of 114.54 resistance will revive the case the corrective fall from 118.65 has completed with three waves down to 104.69. And whole rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is resuming for 118.65 and above. But before that, outlook stays neutral first.