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ECB Leaves Key Interest Rates Unchanged At 0.00%

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.10% against the USD and closed at 1.1277.

The European Central Bank (ECB), in its April monetary policy meeting, decided to keep the benchmark interest rate steady at 0.00%, as widely expected, amid indications of a slowdown in the global growth momentum. The central bank indicated its plans to hold the interest level at the same level until the year end and would focus on reinvesting the principal amount from its recently ended bond-buying program. The ECB Chief, Mario Draghi stated that the possibilities of recession in the region continue to remain low.

The US dollar declined against major currencies, after the FOMC meeting minutes indicated that the policymakers expressed concerns over the global economic slowdown and diminishing effects of the tax cuts lead to a pause in its interest rate hikes. The FOMC committee expects subdued growth in the GDP as well as consumer spending and business investments.

In the US, data showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) advanced to a 14-month high level of 1.9% on an annual basis in March, compared to a rise of 1.5% in the previous month. Market participants had anticipated the CPI to rise 1.8%. Meanwhile, the nation’s mortgage applications declined 5.6% on a weekly basis in the week ended 05 April 2019, declining from a 2.5-year high level and following an advance of 18.6% in the prior week.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1276, with the EUR trading marginally lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1242, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1207. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1299, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1321.

Looking ahead, traders would await Germany’s consumer price index for March, set to release in a few hours. Later in the day, the US producer price index for March along with initial jobless claims, will garner significant amount of investor attention.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

UK’s Total Trade Deficit Narrowed Below Expectations In February

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.26% against the USD and closed at 1.3090, after the EU granted a second extension for Brexit reducing the fears of a no-deal divorce.

On the data front, UK's total trade deficit narrowed to £4.86 billion in February, lower than market expectations for a deficit of £3.79 billion. The nation had posted a revised deficit of £5.34 billion in the previous month. Moreover, Britain's gross domestic product (GDP) unexpectedly rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in February, defying market anticipation for an unchanged reading. In the previous month, GDP had registered a rise of 0.5%.

Additionally, the nation's manufacturing production surprisingly advanced 0.6% on an annual basis in February, notching a decade high level and compared to a revised fall of 0.7% in the preceding month. Market participants had envisaged manufacturing production to register a decline of 0.6%. Also, UK's industrial production unexpectedly climbed by 0.1% on an annual basis in February, defying market consensus for a drop of 0.9%. In the prior month, industrial production had recorded a revised drop of 0.3%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3097, with the GBP trading 0.05% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data showed that Britain's RICS house price balance unexpectedly improved to -24.00 in March, rising for the first time in 8-months and defying market expectations of a drop to -29.00. In the prior month, house price balance had registered a revised reading of -27.00.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3058, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3019. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3128, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3159.

With no macroeconomic releases in the UK today, investors would look forward to global macroeconomic releases for further direction.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Japan’s Machine Tool Orders Tumbled In March

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.18% against the JPY and closed at 110.95.

Data showed that Japan's flash machine tool orders sank 28.5% on a yearly basis in March, compared to a fall of 29.3% in the prior month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 111.07, with the USD trading 0.11% higher against the JPY from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 110.85, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.62. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.29, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.50.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

Swiss Franc Trading A Tad Lower In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.25% against the CHF and closed at 1.0022.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.0023, with the USD trading slightly higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9998, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9973. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0041, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0059.

In absence of key economic releases in Switzerland today, investor sentiment would be determined by global macroeconomic events.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Loonie Reverses Its Gains In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.10% against the CAD and closed at 1.3318.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3344, with the USD trading 0.20% higher against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3313, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3283. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3367, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3391.

Trading trend in the Loonie today, is expected to be determined by Canada’s new housing price index for February, slated to release later in the day.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations Dropped In April

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.62% against the USD and closed at 0.7168.

LME Copper prices declined 0.8% or $51.0/MT to $6447.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.1% or $1.0/MT to $1852.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7159, with the AUD trading 0.13% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data showed that Australia's consumer inflation expectations declined to 3.9% in April, compared to 4.1% in the prior month.

Elsewhere in China, Australia's largest trading partner, the consumer price index (CPI) rose to a 5-month high level of 2.3% on an annual basis in March, in line with market expectations. The CPI had recorded a rise of 1.5% in the prior month. Moreover, the nation's producer price index (PPI) advanced 0.4% on a yearly basis in March, rising for the first time in 9-months and meeting market consensus. The PPI had registered a gain of 0.1% in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7121, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7083. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7186, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7213.

Amid lack of economic releases in Australia today, traders would focus on global macroeconomic events for further direction.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3296; (P) 1.3328; (R1) 1.3351; More...

USD/CAD is bounded in range of 1.3250/3467 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 1.3250 support will indicate completion of whole rebound from 1.3068. In that case, deeper fall would be seen back to 1.3068/3112 support zone. On the upside, firm break of 1.3467 resistance will resume rise from 1.3068. Further rally should be seen to retest 1.3664 next.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3210) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). However, firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal and target 1.2061 low again.

Gold: Yellow Metal Reverses Its Gains In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.28% against the USD and closed at USD1312.10 per ounce, after the FOMC meeting minutes indicated a halt in interest rate hikes till the year end and remained relatively optimistic on the health of the US economy.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1310.40, with gold trading 0.13% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1305.17, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1299.93. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1315.17, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1319.93.

The yellow metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7128; (P) 0.7152; (R1) 0.7194; More...

AUD/USD's breach of 0.7168 resistance argues that the pull back from 0.7295 has completed at 0.7003 already. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 0.7206 resistance first. Break will resume rise from 0.6722 through 0.7295 high. On the downside, however, break of 0.7109 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7003/7052 support zone.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, fall from 0.8135 is still expected to extend. Such decline is seen as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Silver: White Metal Trading On A Weaker Footing This Morning

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver slightly rose against the USD and closed at USD15.20 per ounce, led by gains in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 15.17, with silver trading 0.16% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close, reversing its previous session gains.

The pair is expected to find support at 15.10, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 15.03. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 15.25, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 15.33.

The white metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.