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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5754; (P) 1.5769; (R1) 1.5904; More...

EUR/AUD's rebound from 1.5714 was rejected by 4 hour 55 EMA. But downside is held well above 1.5714 low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Consolidation from 1.5721 might extend further. But upside should be limited by 1.6122 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, decisive break of 1.5271 will resume the fall from 1.6765 and target 1.5346 support next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.5346 support holds, outlook will remain bullish. Uptrend from 1.1602 (2012 low) is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 1.6765 will target 61.8% retracement of 2.1127 (2008 high) to 1.1602 at 1.7488 next. However, firm break of 1.5346 key support will indicate trend reversal, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD, and turn outlook bearish.

The euro currency remains weak against the US dollar on Wednesday with the pair now trading around neckline support, at 1.1216. If the weekly decline continues to gathers pace, the 1.1170 level still offers the strongest form of technical support prior to the 1.1100 level. Technical indicators across the four-hour time frame are now starting to move higher and could correct into Friday’s US jobs report.

The EURUSD pair is heavily bearish while trading below the 1.1216 level, key technical support is found at the 1.1170 and 1.1100 levels.

If the EURUSD pair trades above the 1.1216 level, bulls may test back towards the 1.1230 and 1.1250 resistance levels.

The US dollar is losing bullish momentum above the 111.00 level against the Japanese ye, despite the recent surge in the value of the greenback. The USDJPY pair could reverse back towards the pivotal 110.90 level if buyers fail to move price above the 111.60 resistance area. Technical indicators across the four-hour time frame are also starting to appear overstretched.

If the USDJPY pair falls to move above the 111.60 level, sellers may test towards the 110.90 and 110.40 support levels.

If bulls move price above the 111.60 level, further gains towards the 112.00 and 112.25 levels appears likely.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1167; (P) 1.1186; (R1) 1.1202; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 1.1162 temporary low is extending. For now, further decline is expected as long as 1.1256 minor resistance holds. Decisive break of 1.1154 key fibonacci level will confirm resumption of whole downtrend from 1.2004. That should then pave the way to 61.8% projection of 1.2004 to 1.1173 from 1.1444 at 1.0930. However, break of 1.1256 will indicate short term bottoming and turn back to the upside for 1.1310 support turned resistance first.

In the bigger picture, multiple rejection by 55 week EMA indicates medium term bearishness. Focus remains on 1.1154/98 support zone (2016 high and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154). Decisive break there will confirm resumption of whole down trend from 1.2004 and long term bearish reversal. EUR/CHF should then target 1.0629 support and below. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1444 resistance holds.

The precious metal managed to post modest gains, rising 0.38% on the day on Tuesday. This reversed part of the declines from the day before. Overall, gold remains muted with price testing a technical support level and ahead of the March payroll figures due in the latter part of this week.

Can the Consolidation Push Gold Higher?

The XAUUSD has failed to break down below the support level of 1284 and has instead consolidated in the support area. This led to price action inching modestly higher. While price has previously attempted to rebound, it failed. We see this current rebound as another attempt for a correction to the upside. Failure to post any major gains could lead to price to fall back to the support area. A break down below 1284 is key for gold to resume the declines.

The Japanese yen rose 0.03% on the day as trading in the USDJPY was rather subdued. The market sentiment was somewhat mixed with the Treasury yields stabilizing. Durable goods orders fell 1.9% on the month compared to estimates of a 2.1% decline. Core durable goods orders rose 0.1%. Economic reports from the US continue to come at a slightly better than expected forecasts.

Will USDJPY Be Able to Close Above Resistance?

The currency pair managed to close above the resistance level of 111.40 on Tuesday. However, the close wasn’t very convincing which could result in prices probably reversing off the resistance level. A bullish close on the day is required to confirm that the upside momentum is intact. This will set the stage for the USDJPY to test 112.51 as the next upside target.

The common currency was seen extending declines on Tuesday as the pair lost a modest 0.07% on the day. Producer prices report for the eurozone saw a 0.1% increase on the month in March, missing estimates of a 0.2% increase. This was also slower than February’s gains of a revised 0.3% increase.

Will the EURUSD Reverse Declines?

The euro currency closed on Tuesday with a potential reversal pattern. But we need to see a bullish close on the day today to confirm this view. A rebound off the lows and a close above 1.1217 could confirm a move to the upside. The main resistance level at 1.1249 will be key in capping the gains. The Stochastics oscillator, however, signals that the upside momentum remains weak.

Pivot (invalidation): 62.15

Our preference Long positions above 62.15 with targets at 63.35 & 63.80 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 62.15 look for further downside with 61.60 & 60.95 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7042; (P) 0.7080; (R1) 0.7109; More...

AUD/USD breached 0.7056 support briefly but quickly rebounded. Upside is limited below 0.7168 so far. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 0.7056 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7003 first. Break will resume the whole decline from 0.7295. On the upside, break of 0.7168 will resume the rise from 0.7003 and turn bias to the upside for 0.7295 resistance. Break will extend the whole rebound from 0.6722 to 0.7393 key resistance level.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we'd treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.

Pivot (invalidation): 15.0300

Our preference Long positions above 15.0300 with targets at 15.2500 & 15.3300 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 15.0300 look for further downside with 14.9700 & 14.9100 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further upside.