Sample Category Title

Pivot (invalidation): 1.3345

Our preference Short positions below 1.3345 with targets at 1.3295 & 1.3270 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.3345 look for further upside with 1.3370 & 1.3395 as targets.

Comment The RSI lacks upward momentum.

Pivot (invalidation): 0.9990

Our preference Short positions below 0.9990 with targets at 0.9970 & 0.9955 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 0.9990 look for further upside with 1.0000 & 1.0010 as targets.

Comment As Long as the resistance at 0.9990 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 0.9970 remains high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.29; (P) 145.87; (R1) 146.79; More...

GBP/JPY rebounds strongly today but stays in range below 148.87. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 143.72 support holds, further rise is in favor. On the upside, decisive break of 149.48 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication and target 156.58 resistance next. However. sustained break of 143.72 will indicate near term reversal, after rejection by 149.48 key resistance. In that case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 141.00 support first.

In the bigger picture, focus is now staying on 149.98 key resistance. Decisive break there should confirm that medium term fall from 156.59 (2018 high) has completed at 131.51 already. Rise from 131.51 is then seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 122.36 (2016 low). GBP/JPY should then target 156.59 and above. However, rejection by 149.98 will retain medium term bearishness and could extend the fall from 156.59 through 131.51 to 122.36.

Pivot (invalidation): 111.25

Our preference Long positions above 111.25 with targets at 111.75 & 112.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 111.25 look for further downside with 111.00 & 110.85 as targets.

Comment The RSI calls for a new upleg.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.3100

Our preference Long positions above 1.3100 with targets at 1.3150 & 1.3195 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.3100 look for further downside with 1.3080 & 1.3050 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further upside.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.1205

Our preference Long positions above 1.1205 with targets at 1.1230 & 1.1250 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.1205 look for further downside with 1.1185 & 1.1175 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

AUDUSD had an impressive start early on Wednesday, fully recovering the losses it made on Tuesday, but the technical indicators suggest a continuation of the recent neutral situation in the short term as the MACD has yet to enter positive territory and show strength above its red signal line. The RSI has pierced its 50 neutral mark once again, however with the indicator holding close to this threshold, significant gains are less likely to occur.

Further upside may initially retest the 61.8% Fibonacci of 0.7145 of the downleg from 0.7392 to 0.6745 before the 200-day moving average currently near 0.7200 comes into view. Breaking this line, the focus will shift straight to the 0.7294-0.7320 area where the price found strong support and resistance in previous sessions. Still, only a rally above the 0.7392 top would switch the neutral condition in the medium-term picture into a bullish one.

Alternatively, should the pair resume negative momentum, the base created around the 50% Fibonacci of 0.7069 could halt downside movements once again. If the bulls manage to overcome that obstacle, the next target could be detected between the two-month low of 0.7027 and the January 2’s closing price of 0.6980. Any steep downfall below the latter could confirm the start of a downtrend.

In brief, AUDUSD is holding a neutral bias in short-term, while in the medium-term picture, the pair is in a sideways move within the 0.7392-0.7000 territory.

WTI crude oil futures have been in a flying mode over the last four days, creating a new five-month high of 62.87 earlier on Wednesday. The price is heading higher after it found strong support at the one-and-a-half-year low of 42.50 last December. The short-term bias looks positive as the MACD keeps gaining ground above its trigger line, while the stochastic seems to be making its way up in the overbought territory.

If the bulls hold the control, price advances may stall initially near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downleg from 76.90 to 42.50 around 63.73. Another positive extension above the latter level could find resistance at the 65.70 barrier, taken from the inside swing bottom on October 2018. More upside pressures could drive the commodity towards the next hurdle of 67.85.

If the price bounces off the 61.8% Fibonacci, it would return lower towards the 60.35 support and the 50.0% Fibonacci region of 59.70, which stands near the 20-day SMA. Even lower, the next stop could be around the 58.10 support level, while deeper losses could drive the price to touch the 40-day SMA currently at 57.40.

To conclude, the market is in an ascending tendency over the last three months, while oil prices are ready to surpass the 50-week SMA, creating a sharp upward trend.

EUR/USD declined heavily and broke the 1.1240 support area before finding buyers near 1.1180. USD/CHF remained in a positive zone and dips remain supported near 0.9965.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

• The Euro faced a solid rise in selling pressure below the 1.1320 support against the US Dollar.
• There is a major declining channel in place with resistance near 1.1230 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
• USD/CHF climbed higher recently above the 0.9950 and 0.9980 resistance levels.
• There is a major bullish trend line formed with support at 0.9960 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro started a significant downside move from well above the 1.1350 level against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the 1.1320 and 1.1240 support levels to enter a major downtrend.

The decline was such that the pair even broke the 1.1220 support area and settled below the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair traded as low as 1.1183 on FXOpen and it is currently correcting higher.

Buyers managed to push the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1249 high to 1.1183 low. Moreover, there was a break above the 1.1210 resistance level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

It is currently trading near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1249 high to 1.1183 low. There is also a major declining channel in place with resistance near 1.1230 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

A break above the channel resistance near the 1.1225 and 1.1230 resistance levels may call for more upsides in the near term. On the upside, the next major resistance is near the 1.1250 level.

On the downside, there is a decent support formed near the 1.1200-1.1210 zone. If there is a close below 1.1200, the pair might move back towards the 1.1180 and 1.1160 levels.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis

The US Dollar started a solid upward move from the 0.9900-0.9910 support area against the Swiss franc. The USD/CHF pair traded above the 0.9940 and 0.9950 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

Buyers gained control and pushed the pair above the 0.9980 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair traded close the 1.0000 resistance and formed a high at 0.9999. Later, there was a downside correction below the 0.9985 support.

The pair broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 0.9934 low to 0.9999 high. However, the 0.9875 support and the 50 hourly simple moving average is currently acting as a support.

The next key support is near the 0.9965 level. It coincides with the previous resistance zone and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 0.9934 low to 0.9999 high.

Therefore, if the pair corrects further, it is likely to find a strong buying interest near the 0.9965 support area in the coming sessions. Below 0.9965, the next key support is near the 0.9940 level.

On the upside, the main resistance is near the 1.0000 area, where sellers are likely to take a stand. An upside break above 1.0000 might call for more gains towards the 1.0025 and 1.0050 levels.

• Rates: US ADP and non-manufacturing ISM key for trading
  Monday's stronger than expected US manufacturing ISM and improving Chinese gauges stemmed recession fears at the start of the week. The jury is still out though. Today's US ADP employment report and services ISM are next key eco indicators. More strength will be needed to convince markets that the end of the cycle isn't near.
• Currencies: EUR/USD holding above the 1.1177/87 support, at least for now
  The dollar retained the benefit of the doubt. The US currency came close to key resistance, but the rally finally ran into resistance. Today's US eco data are expected solid, but we don't expect them to provide the trigger for further sustained USD gains. Sterling profited as markets see PM Mays cooperation with labour as raising the chance for a soft Brexit.

The Sunrise Headlines

• US equity markets printed mixed yesterday, finishing up from the lows of the day after. Asian equities are all moving higher this morning with gains up to 1% on strong Chinese PMI's and with US-Sino trade talks recommencing today.
• UK PM May turns to opposition/Labour leader Corbyn to break the Brexit deadlock, raising chances of a softer Brexit. She forfeits the strategy of keeping Brexit a Conservative party project, accepting this will never gather a majority.
• The US and China have resolved most of the issues standing in the way of a trade deal. The fate of the existing US duties and an enforcement mechanism will be discussed with Chinese VP Liu in Washington later today.
• China aims to ease restrictions on stock index futures, according to a top official at the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Up until now, foreign investors have to use proxies to participate in the Chinese futures market.
• IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde says global growth has lost momentum since the start of the year, though a recession isn't likely in the near term. The IMF will publish an updated global growth forecast on April 9.
• China's services activity accelerated to a 14-month high in March. The Caixin Services PMI rose to 54.4 (vs. 51.1 in Feb.). The Composite PMI gauge, covering both manufacturing and services, rose to 52.9 (vs. 50.7 a month earlier).
• Today's eco calendar contains the ADP employment change and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for March in the US. The UK prints the Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (Mar). Fed's Bostic, George, Kashkari and Barker speak today

Currencies: EUR/USD Holding Above The 1.1177/87 Support, At Least For Now

EUR/USD 1.1187/77 support holds, at least for now

The dollar initially retained the benefit of the doubt yesterday. The tradeweighted dollar touched a ST top intraday and EUR/USD dropped briefly below 1.12. The move was mainly follow-through price action on recent trends. US durable orders were close to expectations and US-German interest rate differntials didn't widen much further. Later, the dollar ceded ground on headlines that UK PM May would try break the deadlock on Brexit by finding an agreement with Labour leader Corbyn. EUR/USD closed the session at 1.1204 (from 1.1213). USD/JPY also show no intraday dynamics at all (close at 111.32).

Overnight, sentiment on risk improved as US and China offficals were said to have resolved most of the pending issues in the trade dispute. The China Caixin PMI's also printed strong, easing market fears on Chinese growth. Asian equties show modest gains despite a mixed close in the US. The trade-weighted dollar eases further (97.20). EUR/USD regains some ground (1.1225 area). USD/JPY initially profited from the risk-on sentiment and higher US yields but struggles to maintain its upward bias (111.40 area).

Today, the final EMU services/composite PMI's will be published. In the US the ADP labour market report and the non-manufacturing ISM are scheduled for release. Markets will look out weather the EMU services sector can avoid the sharp downturn in manufacturing. ADP job growth is expected at a decent 175K. The US non-man. ISM is expected to ease slightly to 58 from a strong 59.7. We don't expect a big undershoot in US data, but the consensus estimate is putting the bar quite high.

The dollar came close to key resistance (DXY, EUR/USD) but a break didn't occur. Today's US data might confirm a healthy US economy, but we are not convinced they will provide the positive surprise needed to trigger further sustained USD gains. A constructive risk sentiment and positive headlines on trade might be a tentative euro supportive too. EUR/USD stays within reach of the 1.1187/77 support. We still aussme that a sustained EUR/USD decline will not be that evident/easy as we don't expect the Fed to leave its wait-and-see bias anytime soon.

After initially sterling weakness, the UK currency yesterday jumped higher on headlines that UK PM will try to hammer out a Brexit agreement in cooperation with the labour opposition. This is seen as raising the chances for a rather soft Brexit. However, May's strategy brings UK politics in uncharted territory. We don't preposition for further sustained sterling gains at this stage. Real signs of a solution are probably needed to push EUR/GBP below the 0.8480 support area.

EUR/USD: no break below key 1.1177/87 support (yet)