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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9925; (P) 0.9939; (R1) 0.9960; More.....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Some more consolidations could be seen above 0.9879 temporary low. As long as 1.0010 minor resistance holds, further decline is mildly in favor. On the downside, below 0.9879 will resume the fall from 1.0124 to 0.9716 key support. Nevertheless, break of 1.0010 will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0124/28 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on medium term trend line (now at 0.9846). Decisive break there will argue that whole rise from 0.9186 has completed. Further break of 0.9716 will confirm reversal and target next support level at 0.9541. Nevertheless, there is still a chance that price action from 1.0128 are forming a consolidative pattern with fall from 1.0124 as third leg. If this is the case, stronger support should be seen between 0.9716 and the trend line to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.14; (P) 110.42; (R1) 110.90; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 110.95 minor resistance will argue that the pull back from 112.13 has completed at 109.17. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 112.13. On the downside, below 109.71 will resume the fall from 112.13 to 38.2% retracement of 104.69 to 112.13 at 109.28. Break of 109.28 will target 61.8% retracement at 107.53 next.

In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 104.69 was strong, USD/JPY failed to sustain above 55 week EMA (now at 110.91), and was kept well below 114.54 resistance. Medium term outlook is turned mixed and we'll wait for the structure of the fall from 112.13 to unveil to make an assessment later. For now, more range trading is expected between 104.69 and 112.13 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3364; (P) 1.3389; (R1) 1.3407; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is expected with 1.3352 minor support intact. On the upside, firm break of 1.3467 resistance will reinforce the case that corrective pull back from 1.3664 has completed at 1.3068. USD/CAD should then target a test on 1.3664. On the downside, break of 1.3352 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 1.3250 support first.

In the bigger picture, structure of the medium term rise from 1.2061 (2017 low) to 1.3664 is not clearly impulsive. Hence, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and 1.3793 resistance to limit upside, and bring medium term topping. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as channel support (now at 1.3192) holds. Sustained break of 1.3793 will pave the way to retest 1.4689 (2015 high). However, firm break of the channel support should confirm reversal and target 1.2061 low again.

The USD/JPY could make a bearish bounce at the Fibonacci resistance if the current WXY (pink) wave pattern is correct. The main target is the Fibonacci retracement level of wave 2 vs 1 (purple). A break above the resistance trend line (red) would make the current wave outlook less likely.

The USD/JPY is building a bull flag chart pattern, which could be part of a wave 4 (blue). A bullish break above the resistance trend line (orange) could indicate one more push within a wave 5 (blue) of wave C (purple). Bearish candlestick patterns below the resistance trend line (red) could confirm a bearish reversal.

General Trend:

• In Japan over 1,000 companies are trading ex-dividend today (includes Sony, Mitsubishi UFJ and Softbank)
• Japanese autos and financials trade generally lower, Iron/Steel and Marine/Transportation firms also decline
• Chinese Healthcare and Financial firms rise in early trading; IT and Telecom services companies lag
• Chinese broker GF Securities declines after weaker than expected earnings, noted losses at its multi-strategy hedge fund
• BYD declines over 4% in Hong Kong, China revised subsidy rules for new energy vehicles
• Utilities, REITs, Consumer Discretionary and Energy companies weigh on equity market in Australia
• RBNZ said it is more likely that the next rate adjustment is down (vs next move in official cash rate could be up or down prior)
• New Zealand 2-year yield declines over 10bps and Kiwi drops over 1% after RBNZ statement
• Chinese telecom ZTE may report earnings later today
• Chinese bank ICBC expected to report FY results on Thursday
• US/China due to hold trade talks in China on March 28-29th (Thursday-Friday)

Headlines/Economic Data

Australia/New Zealand

• ASX 200 opened flat
• (NZ) NEW ZEALAND CENTRAL BANK (RBNZ) LEAVES OFFICIAL CASH RATE (OCR) UNCHANGED AT 1.75%; AS EXPECTED; More likely that next rate adjustment is down
• (NZ) Following RBNZ statement money markets are now pricing in rate cut in Nov 2019 (vs June 2020 prior)- US financial press
• LYC.AU Will not engage with Wesfarmers on current terms
• (AU) Australia Labour Party Member Butler: Labour doesn't support Govt subsidies for new coal; need stable rules on climate change to guide investment
• ECX.AU Gives market update: has received interest from a number of parties regarding the Grays and Right2Drive businesses and confirms that these businesses are for sale; Fleet and Novated- 5 months to Feb 19th Net Op income 71.0M v 72.4M y/y
• RBA Assistant Gov Kent made no comments on monetary or fiscal policy at FX conference
• (AU) Australia sells A$900M v A$900M indicated in 2.75% Nov 2029 bonds, avg yield 1.8158% v 2.1564% prior, bid to cover 2.81x v 3.0x prior

Japan

• Nikkei 225 opened -0.4%
• (JP) Japan Econ Min Motegi to meet with leaders from Seven & I, FamilyMart, Lawson and Ministop in April to ask them to consider stopping 24 hour operations amid tight labor market -

Nikkei

• (JP) Sony, Mitsubishi UFJ, Softbank as well as over 1,000 others traded in Japan are trading ex-dividend
• (JP) Nikkei poll shows 25% of Japanese business leaders expect the global economy to be in worse shape in 6-months

Korea

• Kospi opened -0.1%
• (KR) South Korea Mar Consumer Confidence: 99.8 v 99.5 prior
• (KR) US President Trump did mean to reverse day old sanctions on North Korea last week before officials stopped him and issued a cover up for his confusing announcement – Yonhap
• (KR) South Korea and US set up joint monitoring of North Korea missile plant - Korean press
• 600221.CN Cuts FY18 (CNY) Net -4.0 to -3.0B v +3.3B y/y (prior -500M)
• (KR) Bank of Korea (BoK) Quarterly Report on Regional Economies: Economy remained largely steady in some regions in Q1; manufacturing production and exports declined slightly in Seoul metro area

China/Hong Kong

• Hang Seng opened flat; Shanghai Composite opened +0.5%
• 293.HK Confirms to acquire Hong Kong Airways for HK$4.93B (HK$2.25B cash and HK$2.68B through the issue and novation of promissory loan notes)
• (CN) CHINA FEB INDUSTRIAL PROFITS YTD Y/Y: -14.0% V -1.9% PRIOR
• (CN) China PBoC Open Market Operation (OMO): Skips for 6th consecutive session; Net drains CNY0B v CNY50B prior
• (CN) China PBoC sets yuan reference rate: 6.7141 v 6.7042 prior
• 3333.HK Reports FY18 (CNY) Net 78.3B v 45.1Be, Rev 466.2B v 497.8Be
• (CN) China Q1 Beige Book notes Q1 recovery is unmistakable, profits, investment and hiring improved
• (CN) Former China PBoC Gov Zhou: Some outside criticism is useful for China as it pushes reforms
• (CN) China said to be planning more pork imports ahead of next phase of trade talks - financial press
• (CN) China revises subsidy rules for new energy vehicles; cuts subsidies to encourage development of longer range NEVs

Other Asia

• (TH) Thailand Pheu Thai said to partner with 'Democratic Front' of parties, claims 255 seats gives it majority in House of Representatives - financial press

North America

• (US) Fed's Daly (dove, non-voter): Right now appropriate policy is being patient, wait to see if data will tell up or down move is needed; wage growth coming up, has not stalled out
• (US) President Trump's nominee for Fed Stephen Moore: Fed should immediately cut rates by 50bps - NYT

Europe

• (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves: Floating exchange rate works, do not see any trend that the Krona will continue weakening - Op Ed in local press
• (IT) Italy PM Conte and President Xi sign MOU, making Italy the first western European country to sign on to China Belt and Road - SCMP

Levels as of 1:20 ET

• Nikkei 225, -0.5%, ASX 200 +0.1%, Hang Seng +0.5%; Shanghai Composite +0.4%; Kospi -0.2%
• Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.1%; Nasdaq100 +0.2%, Dax flat; FTSE100 +0.1%
• EUR 1.1278-1.1250 ; JPY 110.67-110.40 ; AUD 0.7142-0.7097 ;NZD 0.6917-0.6795
• Gold flat at $1,321/oz; Crude Oil +0.2% at $60.04/brl; Copper +0.1% at $2.865/lb

Market movers today

Today is rather heavy for market moving events on data, Brexit and ECB speakers. On the data front, the Norwegian labour force survey and Swedish manufacturing confidence are released (page 2).

On the central bank front, several ECB officials are due to speak at the annual ECB watchers' conference, which definitely has the potential to move markets. Programme can be seen here . Most prominently, Draghi will speak at 9:00 am and Praet at 9:45 am CET.

On the political front, we have yet another round of indicative votes today on Brexit in the UK (watch out for what they will vote on, especially the formulation on softer versions of Brexit, as it would be important for whether the House of Commons can support it or not). Remember, the indicative Brexit votes are not legally binding and we do not know how the EU will respond, although EU leaders will probably welcome a softer stance. This, however, will likely require a longer extension to negotiate. The main problem about Brexit is there is no majority for anything (except for a majority being against a no deal Brexit) and the House of Commons has voted most proposals down already in one way or another, so what has changed? Voting starts at 20.00 CET and results will likely be in 21:30-23:00 CET (for more details see The Guardian).

Selected market news

On Brexit, all eyes are on the indicative votes tonight and to what extent they will bring clarity on the way forward . Yesterday, more Brexiteers including now officially Jacob Rees-Mogg, one of the most prominent Brexiteers, are now suggesting they will, or are close to, support May's deal, as they see the alternative is a softer, not a harder, Brexit. We have argued for a long time that this would probably happen eventually. The problem is that DUP does not seem near supporting May's deal just yet and yesterday DUP's Wilson said a long extension would be better than May's deal. It would probably also help if PM Theresa May was willing to step down but she is unlikely to give in to this demand before she knows it is sufficient to get the deal over the finishing line. Even if DUP and most Conservatives support the deal, May will probably still need Labour votes, as both conservative die hard remainers and Brexiteers, although small in number, are voting against the deal no matter what.

In relation to the economic outlook for the Eurozone , it was interesting to see the bounce in the INSEE measure of French business confidence for the month of March. This was the third confidence measure over the past two days, after yesterday's German IFO and Belgium business confidence measures, to suggest improvement in Europe in March rather than the significant decline implied by the manufacturing PMI data last week. While markets may place more weight on the PMI data, at least so far there is not sufficient evidence to suggest its decline has been universal across other survey-based measures.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.34% against the USD and closed at 1.1276.

On the macro front, Germany's Gfk consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell to a level of 10.4 in April, defying market expectations of a steady reading. In the prior month, the index had registered a revised reading of 10.7.

Separately, the US dollar rose against the euro yesterday, following a rebound in 10-year US Treasury yields.

In the US, data indicated that the US housing starts tumbled to an 8-month low level of 8.7% on a monthly basis, to an annual rate of 1162.0K in February, compared to a revised level of 1273.0K in the previous month. Markets participants had anticipated housing starts to fall to a level of 1210.0K. Moreover, the nation's building permits dropped 1.6% on a monthly basis, to an annual rate of 1296.0K, compared to a revised level of 1317.0K in the previous month. Markets had expected building permits to decline to a level of 1305.0K. Also, the CB consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell to 124.1 in March, marking its lowest level in 16-months and defying market consensus for a rise to a level of 132.5. The index had registered a reading of 131.4 in the prior month. Additionally, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index declined to a level of 10.0 in March, compared to a level of 16.0 in the previous month.

On the flipside, the US housing price index climbed 0.6% on a monthly basis in January, surpassing market expectations for an advance of 0.4%. The index had registered a rise of 0.3% in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.1253, with the EUR trading 0.20% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1227, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1202. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1302, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1352.

Looking forward, traders would await the European Central Bank's President Mario Draghi's speech, due in a while. Later in the day, the US trade balance data for January along with the MBA mortgage applications, will keep traders on their toes.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP slightly rose against the USD and closed at 1.3209, after two Eurosceptic lawmakers hinted that they would back UK's Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal.

Data showed that UK's BBA mortgage approvals unexpectedly declined to a level of 35.3K in February, defying market expectations for a gain to a level of 39.8K. In the previous month, BBA mortgage approvals had recorded a revised level of 39.6K.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3180, with the GBP trading 0.22% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3138, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3096. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3242, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3304.

Amid no major economic releases in UK today, investors would focus on global macroeconomic factors for further direction

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.48% against the JPY and closed at 110.54.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 110.55, with the USD trading a tad higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 110.13, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 109.71. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 110.83, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.11.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7111; (P) 0.7130; (R1) 0.7152; More...

AUD/USD's rebound was limited below 0.7168 resistance and drops sharply today. But it's staying above 0.7056 minor support so far. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 0.7056 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 0.7003 first. Break will resume the whole decline from 0.7295. On the upside above 0.7168 will resume the rebound from 0.7003 towards 0.7295 high instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7393 resistance holds, we'd treat fall from 0.8135 as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 (2016 low) will confirm this bearish view and resume the down trend to 0.6008 (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7393 will argue that fall from 0.8135 has completed. And corrective pattern from 0.6826 has started the third leg, targeting 0.8135 again.