Sample Category Title

• Risk aversion flows continue to reverberate after fresh signs that global economic growth was slowing
• German Mar IFO data handily beats expectations
• Brexit focus on looming meaningful vote 3 and may move onto to indicative votes either voluntarily or forced upon the government
• Speculation that PM May was close to being toppled with a caretaker PM on Brexit
• All eyes on USTR Lighthizer and Treasury Secy Mnuchin trip to China for further talks on Thursday and Friday
• US Attorney Gen Barr said that Special Counsel Robert Mueller found no evidence of Trump colluding with Russia; report did fail to exonerate President Trump on obstruction of justice

Asia:

• US said to note China initial offer related to digital trade was not sufficient; trade talks due to be held in China later this week. After making the initial offer, China said to have retracted the offer following demands by the US for stronger pledges. China had yet to offer meaningful concessions related to the easing of curbs on technology companies
• China PBoC Gov Yi Gang affirmed PBoC has basically exited from regular forex market intervention. Reiterated China would push yuan reforms, enhance yuan (CNY) exchange rate flexibility.
• Thailand Palang Pracharat party (backed by military) said to be ahead in the first election since 2014 coup

Europe:

• 11 Cabinet Ministers have confirmed they want to replace PM May with her Deputy David Lidington; her behavior is being called into question. Lidington is described as a loyalist that has operated behind the scenes to break the parliamentary deadlock
• UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Hammond (Fin Min): UK must find a way to leave the EU but replacing PM May would not help; second referendum was a perfectly coherent proposition which deserves to be considered
• PM May was said to be considering the following Brexit options: Single market, FTA customs union, revoking Article 50, 2nd referendum, PM May's deal, no deal Brexit
• ECB's Rehn (Finland): Euro zone growth had slowed down significantly and we must be worried; Brexit is the biggest threat to Euro Zone in the short term
• S&P affirmed Spain sovereign rating at A-; outlook Positive

Americas:

• US Attorney General Barr released special counsel Mueller report findings: Found no collusion with Russia on 2016 Presidential elections but fell short of calling him innocent; identified two Russian influences
• Fed Evans (dove, voter): Don't expect interest rate increase until H2 2020, wanted to see more inflation; Would take action if inflation undershoots
• Fed's Bostic (dove, non-voter): "patient" did not mean the Fed won't move rates if necessary. Open minded about rate policy, could move rates up or down; would be comfortable raising rates if the data suggested the economy was overheating

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 -0.62% at 373.70, FTSE -0.48% at 7,173.25, DAX -0.17% at 11,346.04, CAC-40 -0.49% at 5,243.98, IBEX-35 -0.35% at 9,167.48, FTSE MIB +0.04% at 21,087.50, SMI -0.37% at 9,284.50, S&P 500 Futures -0.25%]
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices trade mostly lower across the board following on from weakness in the US on Friday and continued weakness in the futures. as well as weaker Asian Indices. The Dax outperforms creeping into positive territory following stronger IFO data in Germany. On the corporate front Shares of IFG Group rises over 40% after a takeover offer from SaintMichelCo and earnings; Inmarsat rises a further 8% after Triton Bidco confirmed a $7.21/shr cash offer. Elsewhere Convatec rises on the announcement of a new CEO, Fiat gains in Italy after press reports its open to mergers, while Genus declines on the stepping down of its CEO. Onn the earnings front Brady rises on positive earnings, with Microgen also gaining, while Quixant, Majestic Wines and Ebiquity among the declines on earnings. Looking ahead notable earners include Winnebago Industries and Cheetah Mobile among others.

Equities

• Consumer discretionary: LVMH [MC.FR] -1%, Hermes [RMS.FR] -2% (Tiffany's earnings), Scout24 [G24.DE] n/c (earnings), Majestic Wine [WINE.UK] -8% (tarding update; transformation plan)
• Utilities: Pennon Group [PNN.UK] -0.5% (trading update)
• Energy: Pantheon Resources [PANR.UK] +26% (earnings)
• Financials: IFG Group [IFP.UK] +43% (earnings; to be acquired)
• Healthcare: Bayer [BAYN.DE] -2.5% (analyst action), PharmaMar [PHM.ES] +3% (study met primary endpoint)
• Industrials: Fiat Chrysler [FCA.IT] +2% (Reportedly Peugeot approached Fiat about a combination earlier this year but talks have ended)
• Technology: Convatec [CTEC.UK] +3% (appoints CEO; Chairman to retire)
• Telecom: Inmarsat [ISA.UK] +8% (confirms acquisition)

Speakers

• ECB's Hansson (Estonia): Reiterates Euro-Area slowdown may continue in the medium term. Expected TLTRO-3 terms to be a bit less generous
• UK PM May said to have told Brexitiers during Chequers meeting that she would quit if they vote for her Brexit deal
• UK Trade Secretary Fox: Brexit options have been limited for some time (PM May's deal, no-deal or no Brexit). Not clear if Tory voters want to change PM; real debate was about future UK ties to EU. No point on voting again on existing deal if it had no chance of passing
• Fed Evans (dove, voter): Policy to be data dependent; downside risks were larger than positive risks. Fed's patient status was warranted with policy being about risk management. Might have to ease if economic activity softened more than expected. Rate increase would be justified if Growth was at potential
• German IFO Economists commented that the outlook in Manufacturing worsened in March. Global economy was not providing any support for Germany
• Turkey President Erdogan reiterated stance that those in finance sector who buy foreign currencies on the expectation of a TRY currency (Lira) decline would pay 'very heavy price'
• Turkey Central Bank: To closely monitor volatility and unhealthy price formation. Determined to build up FX Reserves
• Turkey Central Bank Gov Cetinkaya: Committed to bring CPI down to single digits. Main policy was to maintain strong reserves; best to focus on medium term trends
• Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov Lee: Downside risk to economy was growing; might consider policy shift if slowdown became clear
• OPEC+ formally cancels April meeting (as expected)

Currencies/Fixed Income

• USD remained a tad firmer as risk aversion flows continued to reverberate after fresh signs that global economic growth was slowing.
• GBP/USD off its worst levels of the session. Brexit focus was on the looming meaningful vote 3 (if occurs) and could move onto to indicative votes either voluntarily or forced upon the government. Lots of weekend speculation that PM May was close to being toppled with a caretaker PM on Brexit. Numerous Cabinet officials played down such reports. UK government's cabinet meeting later today to be of keen interest.
• German IFO data provided a reprieve for the Euro and Bunds as it came in better than expected. EUR/USD little changed at 1.1320 area and the German 10-year Bunds a tad less negative.
• All eyes on USTR Lighthizer and Treasury Secy Mnuchin trip to China for further talks on Thursday and Friday.

Economic Data

• (FI) Finland Feb PPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.2% prior
• (TR) Turkey Mar Real Sector Confidence (Seasonally Adj): 99.3 v 96.9 prior; Real Sector Confidence NSA (unadj): 102.1 v 97.2 prior
• (TR) Turkey Mar Capacity Utilization: 74.3% v 74.0% prior
• (HU) Hungary Q4 Current Account: No est v -€0.1Be v +€0.2B prior
• (TW) Taiwan Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: -1.8% v -1.7%e
• (ES) Spain Feb PPI M/M: 0.2 v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.9 v 1.7% prior
• (CZ) Czech Mar Consumer Confidence Index: 2.3 v 4.0 prior; Business Confidence: 14.7 v 15.9 prior; Composite Confidence (Consumer & Business): 12.2 v 13.5 prior
• (AT) Austria Jan Industrial Production M/M 1.9% v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 8.2% v 4.4% prior
• (DE) Germany Mar IFO Business Climate Survey: 99.6 v 98.5e; Current Assessment: 103.8 v 102.9e; Expectations Survey: 95.6 v 94.0
• (CH) Swiss Weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 575.9B v 576.0B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 489.3B v 488.6B prior
• (PL) Poland Feb Unemployment Rate: 6.1% v 6.1%e

Fixed Income Issuance

• None seen

Looking Ahead

• (UR) Ukraine Central Bank Minutes
• 06:00 (US) Fed's Harker (hawk, non-voter) in London on Economic Outlook
• 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing
• 06:00 (LT) Lithuania to sell Bonds
• 06:30 (DE) Germany to sell €2.0B in 3-month BuBills
• 07:00 (PT) Portugal House Price Index
• 07:00 (IL) Israel Feb Unemployment Rate: No est v 4.3% prior
• 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON200M in 3.65% 2031 Bonds
• 07:00 (IL) Israel to sell 2021, 2023, 2026 and 2028 bonds
• 07:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
• 07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
• 08:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays)
• 08:30 (US) Feb Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.25e v -0.43 prior
• 09:00 (UK) Baltic Bulk Index
• 09:30 (BR) Brazil Feb Current Account Balance: -$1.3Be v -$6.6B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $7.0Be v $5.9B prior
• 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jan IGAE Economic Activity Index (Monthly GD) Y/Y: 1.1%e v 0.0% prior
• 10:00 (BE) Belgium Mar Business Confidence: -2.0e v -1.7 prior
• 10:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined €3.6-4.8B in 3-month. 6-month and 12-month Bills
• 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
• 16:30 (AU) RBA's Ellis in Sydney
• 13:00 (BR) Brazil Feb Total Formal Job Creation: +87.5Ke v +34.3K prior

The common European currency depreciated about 237 base points against the Japanese Yen on Friday. The pair tested the lower band of a medium-term descending channel pattern at 123.82 during Friday's trading session.

Technical indicators flash sell signals on both the smaller and the larger time frames chart. Therefore, the EUR/JPY exchange rate could edge lower within this session.

Moreover, given that the currency exchange rate is near the bottom border of the medium-term descending channel at 124.45, a breakout is likely to occur during the following trading hours

The Australian Dollar depreciated by about 40 base points against the US Dollar on Friday. The currency pair breached the 200-hour simple moving average at 0.7091 during Friday's trading session.

Today's session began with an upside sentiment, and by the middle of the trading hours, the exchange rate has breached a counter trendline.

Given that a counter trendline break had occurred, it is likely that the currency exchange rate could aim for a resistance cluster formed by the 50– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly PP at 0.7102.

However, a resistance line, formed by the 200-hour simple moving average at 0.7091 could hinder such movement today.

The US Dollar appreciated about 77 pips against the Canadian Dollar on Friday. The currency pair was guided up by a narrow ascending channel pattern.

Currently, the exchange rate is trading near the lower band of the narrow ascending channel pattern at 1.3421 and could be set for a breakout.

If this breakout occurs, it is likely that bearish traders could push the currency exchange rate towards a support cluster at 1.3370.

Although, if the narrow ascending channel holds, the pair could aim for its upper boundary at 1.3465

The New Zealand Dollar was trading in a horizontal line against the US Dollar on Friday. The 50– and 100-hour simple moving averages provided significant support and resistance for the currency pair during Friday's trading session.

The exchange rate was still stranded between the moving averages during Monday's trading session. Most likely, a breakout is likely to occur within this session. Technical sentiment suggests an upside breakout.

However, a resistance cluster at 0.6885 could hinder such progress during the following trading hours.

During Friday's trading session, the currency exchange rate depreciated to 1.1260 passing the support levels of the simple moving averages. On Monday morning, the rate was located at the 1.1320 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the rate might depreciate towards the monthly S1 at the 1.1250 mark passing the bottom boundary of the pattern line at 1.1280 mark.

However, the bottom boundary of the pattern line at the 1.1280 mark might support the rate to push it to trade at the 1.1300 level for the rest of the day.

During Friday's trading session, the British Pound appreciated against the US Dollar by 196 base points or 1.51%, breaking most of the technical indicators. On Monday morning, the rate was located between the 200-hour and the 100-hour simple moving averages at the 1.3197 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the resistance level of the 200-hour simple moving average will retrace the currency exchange rate to depreciate to the 1.3100 level.

On the other hand, the technical indicators could support the rate to break the resistance level of the 200-hour simple moving average to end the trading session at the 1.3250 level.

During Friday's trading session, the currency exchange rate ended the day at the 110.00 level, as it was expected! On Monday morning, the rate was located at the 110.17 mark.

It is expected that the rate will depreciate towards the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level at the 109.60 mark.

Besides, the resistance level of the 55-hour simple moving average will catch up the rate to retrace the currency exchange rate at the 110.30 level.

During Friday's trading session, the yellow metal was supported by the 55-hour simple moving average to end the day at 1,310.00. On Monday morning, the rate was retraced by the upper boundary of the medium pattern to allocate the rate at the 1,317.28 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the rate will break the resistance of the medium pattern line at the 1,318.00 mark to surge towards the monthly pivot point at the 1,321.03 mark.

On the other hand, the upper boundary of the medium pattern line at the 1,318.00 mark might retrace gold to push it to the 1,314.00 level.

The EUR was the biggest looser on Friday as German preliminary manufacturing data for March showed substantially decreased economic activity and the German Mfg PMI dropped to its lowest level in over 5 years. It should be noted though that also France showed a decrease of economic activity for the same period while the Eurozone as a whole still shows some expansion at the Services sector. On other news, in the US the yield curve inverted on Friday, with the 3 month yield surpassing the 10 year note yield, hence the spread inverted for the first time since 2007, according to analysts. The news caused the greenback to weaken especially against safe havens such as the JPY. We expect safe havens to be on the rise and should new financial data remain soft, we could see the EUR weakening even further. EUR/USD dropped heavily on Friday breaking the 1.1340 (R2) and the 1.1300 (R1) support lines (now both turned to resistance lines). We could see the pair correcting somewhat after its stabilization late in the American session on Friday and today’s Asian session, yet the risk of another dip still exists. Should the pair find buying orders along its path, we could see it breaking above the 1.1300 (R1) resistance line and aim for the 1.1340 (R2) resistance barrier. Should on the other hand the pair come under the selling interest of the market, we could see it breaking the 1.1265 (S1) support line and aiming for lower grounds.

Pound strengthens after EU’s proposal, yet uncertainty remains.

The pound strengthened on Friday after the EU provided Theresa May with a two week extension of the Brexit date, pushing a possible hard Brexit temporarily further away. Analysts point out that the pound’s strengthening, at least partly also derived from the EUR’s and USD’s weakening the same day. We expect volatility to remain present for the pound as the inner UK political stage gets the market’s attention this week, as Theresa May’s deal is expected to be presented to the UK Parliament once again. Please note though, that the UK PM may not find support once again for her deal, in which case the issue could drag on. The pound could remain range bound, yet volatility is also expected as the Brexit uncertainty persists. Cable rallied on Friday, breaking the 1.3175 (S1) resistance line (now turned to support). We expect the pair to remain range bound over the next few days yet with volatility remaining present in the any of the pair’s direction. The pair could remain Brexit driven, yet at the same time it should be noted that any possible weakness of the USD side could also provide for a bullish sentiment. Should the bulls dictate the pair’s direction, we could see the pair breaking the 1.3265 (S1) support line and aim for higher grounds. Should on the other hand the pair come under the control of the bears we could see it breaking the 1.3175 (S1) support line and aim if not break the 1.3070 (S2) support barrier.

Other economic highlights, today and early tomorrow

In today’s European session we get from Germany the Ifo Business Sentiment for March and during the late American session, from New Zealand the trade balance figure for February. Please note that during tomorrow’s early Asian session, BoJ’s summary of opinions will be released and that Philadelphia Fed President Harker as well as RBA’s assistant governor Ellis are scheduled to speak today.

As for the week ahead:

On Tuesday Germany’s Gfk Consumer Sentiment for April and US CB consumer Sentiment for March due out. On Wednesday RBNZ interest rate decision, and US and Canada’s trade balances for January to be released. On Thursday the CNB Interest rate decision, US GDP for Q4 and Germany’s HICP for March due out. On Friday we get Japan’s Industrial production, unemployment Rate and Retail sales for February, Germany’s unemployment data for March and retail sales for February, UK’s GDP for Q4 and Canada’s GDP for January and Eurozone’s CPI for March.

EUR/USD

Support: 1.1265 (S1), 1.1200 (S2), 1.1175 (S3)
Resistance: 1.1300 (R1), 1.1340 (R2), 1.1390 (R3)

GBP/USD H4

Support: 1.3175 (S1), 1.3070 (S2), 1.2970 (S3)
Resistance: 1.3265 (R1), 1.3350 (R2), 1.3450 (R3)