Sample Category Title
Crude Oil Expect 57.80
Pivot (invalidation): 58.65
Our preference Short positions below 58.65 with targets at 58.15 & 57.80 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 58.65 look for further upside with 58.95 & 59.20 as targets.
Comment The RSI calls for a drop.
Silver Spot Key Resistance At 15.3800
Pivot (invalidation): 15.3800
Our preference Short positions below 15.3800 with targets at 15.2000 & 15.1000 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 15.3800 look for further upside with 15.4400 & 15.5300 as targets.
Comment The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%
Gold Spot The Downside Prevails
Pivot (invalidation): 1304.00
Our preference Short positions below 1304.00 with targets at 1297.00 & 1292.50 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 1304.00 look for further upside with 1308.00 & 1311.00 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
S&P 500 Bullish Bias Above 2805.50
Pivot (invalidation): 2805.50
Our preference Long positions above 2805.50 with targets at 2840.00 & 2852.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 2805.50 look for further downside with 2798.00 & 2784.00 as targets.
Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.
DAX Bullish Bias Above 11620.00
Pivot (invalidation): 11620.00
Our preference Long positions above 11620.00 with targets at 11720.00 & 11770.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 11620.00 look for further downside with 11540.00 & 11485.00 as targets.
Comment The RSI lacks downward momentum.
UK Centre Stage As Third Brexit Vote Looms
UK at the centre of the drama this week
It's going to be some week for financial markets, with the UK very much at the centre of the drama as Theresa May attempts to get her deal over the line.
May has suffered crushing defeats on her deal at the first two times of asking and with nothing having changed, questions are naturally arising about whether the PM will pull the third vote on Tuesday. Ultimately it comes down to how many Brexiteers will back her deal out of fear of Brexit never happening and whether she can get the DUP on board.
It's not just Brexit that's putting the focus on the UK this week. The Bank of England meeting on Thursday as well as numerous economic reports on the labour market, inflation and consumer mean the UK is constantly going to be in the news. This should make for another volatile week for the pound, which continues to be well supported despite being 11 days from exit day without a deal in sight. It seems traders are banking on the EU accepting the UKs request for an extension at this stage.
Gold gains may be short-lived
Gold may have been in recovery mode over the last couple of weeks, having slipped from its highs close to $1,350 to trade back around $1,280 earlier this month, but I'm not yet seeing any clear sign that the yellow metal has bottomed in the near-term.
The rebound we've seen recently has been weak and resembles a corrective move in the sell-off rather than a continuation of the longer-term rally. A weak rebound comes even as the dollar has come under more significant pressure over the last 11 days, which again suggests a reluctance among traders.
Oil steady as Saudi signal output cut extension
Oil prices are relatively stable this morning, with Brent and WTI continuing to struggle to gather any kind of upward momentum in an uncertain global economic environment. Record and rising US production is naturally not helping, although even this appears to have stabilised over the last month or so. This may be temporary but I'm sure OPEC+ will be breathing a sigh of relief for now.
Reports that OPEC+ may be forced to extend output cuts to the end of the year don't appear to be offering much support at the start of the week. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al Falih suggested so much on Sunday but as ever, it seems that the market is betting more on the impact of slower global growth and US output than the actions of the OPEC+ nations.
USD/TRY Under Pressure
Pivot (invalidation): 5.4580
Our preference Short positions below 5.4580 with targets at 5.4400 & 5.4280 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 5.4580 look for further upside with 5.4760 & 5.4890 as targets.
Comment A break below 5.4400 would trigger a drop towards 5.4280.
AUD/USD Further Advance
Pivot (invalidation): 0.7090
Our preference Long positions above 0.7090 with targets at 0.7130 & 0.7145 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.7090 look for further downside with 0.7070 & 0.7055 as targets.
Comment The RSI calls for a bounce.
USD/CAD Turning Down
Pivot (invalidation): 1.3350
Our preferenceShort positions below 1.3350 with targets at 1.3300 & 1.3285 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 1.3350 look for further upside with 1.3370 & 1.3390 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
USD/CHF Under Pressure
Pivot (invalidation): 1.0035
Our preference Short positions below 1.0035 with targets at 1.0000 & 0.9990 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 1.0035 look for further upside with 1.0050 & 1.0065 as targets.
Comment The RSI lacks upward momentum.
