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During Tuesday's trading session, the European Single Currency appreciated against the US Dollar to break the resistance levels of the monthly S1 at 1.1301 and the bottom boundary of the dominant pattern line at 1.1240. On Wednesday morning, the rate was supported by the 200-hour SMA at the 1.1318 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the currency exchange rate will surge towards the weekly pivot point at 1.1368. Note, the 200-hour simple moving average should support the surge during the day.

However, today's US CPI and Core CPI data release at 13:30 GMT could turn the rate towards the dominant pattern line at the 1.1240 mark.

During Tuesday's trading session, the currency exchange rate broke the resistance of the 55-hour simple moving average. During Wednesday's midnight hours, the rate was resisted by the 100-hour SMA at the 1.2890 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the British Pound will depreciate against the US Dollar to the 62.30% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2864.

Note, during today's UK CPI data release at 9:30 GMT, the rate depreciated by 8 base points to turn the rate towards the 55-hour simple moving average at the 1.2885 mark.

During the previous trading session, the rate was testing the weekly R2 at 110.51. During Wednesday's midnight hours, the weekly R2 supported the currency exchange rate at the 110.70 mark.

It is expected that the US Dollar will continue appreciating against the Japanese Yen to break the resistance of the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at 110.77.

Moreover, today's US CPI and Core CPI data release at 13:30 GMT will support the US Dollar to end the trading session at the 110.80 level.

WTI oil stands at the front foot on Wednesday, following Tuesday's bounce that completed hammer reversal pattern. Draw of US crude inventories (API report showed 0.9 mln bls draw vs 2.5 mln bls build f/c) and signs from OPEC for stronger cut of production (OPEC announced 800,000 bpd cut), with the action being led by Saudi Arabia, add to positive near-term outlook and boosts price action. Focus turns towards EIA crude inventories report, due later today (2.6 mln bls build f/c vs 1.2 mln bls build previous week), with surprise on lower than expected build or draw in oil inventories to further boost oil prices. Fresh bulls eye pivotal barrier at $54.01 (Fibo 61.8% of $55.73/$51.23, craked on Tuesday) clear break of which is needed to confirm reversal and open way towards key barriers at $55.15/55 ( daily cloud top / Fibo 38.2% of $76.88/$42.36 fall). Rising 30SMA tracks the advance for over one month and marks solid support at $52.45, which is expected to contain dips. Only return and close below $50.99/62 (55SMA / Fibo 38.2% of $42.36/$55.73) would neutralize bulls and signal further weakness.

Res: 54,01; 54,67; 55,15; 55,55
Sup: 53,31; 52,95; 52,45; 51,78

The US dollar continues to press higher against the Japanese yen currency on Wednesday, with the pair moving within touching distance of the 110.80 resistance level. The overall theme of risk-on trading sentiment in financial markets is pushing the safe-haven currencies lower. Traders attempting to sell the USDJPY pair should be cautious, as the overall bullish projection of the inverted head and shoulders pattern extends towards the 111.40 level.

The USDJPY pair is strongly bullish while trading above the 110.80 level, key technical resistance is found at the 111.00 and 111.40 levels.

If the USDJPY pair moves below the 110.40 level, sellers may test towards the 110.00 and 109.80 support levels.

The British pound is once again trading back under the key 1.2900 level against the US dollar after the United Kingdom economy posted weaker than expected inflation data. The GBPUSD pair met resistance from 1.2922 level earlier this morning, falling just short of the pivotal 1.2930 level. The 1.2830 level is now major downside support, although lower time frame technical indicators are still correcting from extremely oversold conditions.

The GBPUSD pair bearish while trading below the 1.2930 level, key technical support remains at the 1.2850 and 1.2830 levels

If the GBPUSD pair moves above the 1.2900 level, buyers may test towards the 1.2930 and 1.2970 levels.

The US dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index (#DX) moved away from monthly highs and closed in the negative zone (-0.27%). Investors assess an agreement between Democrats and Republicans of Congress, which will avoid the next shutdown of government work. The US President, Donald Trump, is not very pleased with this agreement, but he does not want to introduce a new shutdown as well. Donald Trump said that he could push back the deadline for the US and China to conclude a trade deal. It should be recalled that now this date is March 1.

The New Zealand dollar strengthened significantly after the RBNZ meeting. As expected, the regulator left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.75%. During the press conference, the RBNZ representatives said that the interest rate would remain the same during 2019-2020. The level of employment is close to its most stable level. However, core consumer price inflation is still below the target level of 2%, which requires the continuation of a supporting monetary policy. Despite the weaker global growth, the regulator expects that low interest rates help to accelerate New Zealand’s GDP growth in 2019.

The British pound weakened against the US dollar after Theresa May had asked parliamentarians to postpone the vote on the transfer of control over the Brexit procedure for 2 weeks. The Prime Minister has only 45 days until the Brexit, but now it's not clear what the exit will be.

The "black gold" prices have increased significantly. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $53.50 per barrel. At 17:30 (GMT+2:00), a report on the US crude oil inventories will be published.

Market Indicators

• Yesterday, aggressive purchases were observed in the US stock market: #SPY (+1.29%), #DIA (+1.43%), #QQQ (+1.48%).
• The 10-year US government bonds yield has increased slightly. Currently, the indicator is at the level of 2.67-2.68%.

The news feed on 13.02.2019:

• Consumer price index in the UK at 11:30 (GMT+2:00);
• Industrial production in the Eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+2:00);
• Statistics on inflation in the US at 15:30 (GMT+2:00).

Wednesday February 13: Five things the markets are talking about

Asian equities reached a four-month high overnight, supported by optimism that the world’s two largest economies would be capable of reaching a deal to resolve their nearly year-long trade dispute. President Trump indicated that he is open to moving the March 1 deadline to hike tariffs on Chinese products if the two sides are near an agreement.

Also aiding investor risk is the announcement of a tentative U.S congressional spending deal to avert another partial government shutdown.

In Europe, aside from trade talks, the fact that earnings growth forecasts were no longer falling in Q4, after a steep downward revision, is giving the greenlight to own some stocks.

Elsewhere, oil is extending its rebound from a two-week low after the Saudi’s pledged to deepen output cuts.

On the central bank front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) was ‘less dovish’ than anticipated and this provided the Kiwi dollar a massive boost outright against market expectations, while Sweden’s Riksbank bank left their repo rate unchanged and maintained their rate path outlook.

And in Spain, the minority Socialist government said it plans to hold an early general election after its expected defeat in a budget vote today.

On tap: Chinese VP Liu He is to join U.S Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin in high-level trade talks Feb 14-15 and U.S data out this morning (08:30 am EDT) is expected to show U.S consumer prices rose +0.1% in January.

1. Stocks on the move

In Japan, the Nikkei rallied to trade atop of its two-month high overnight on optimism that Sino-U.S trade talks may be nearing a deal to end their trade dispute. The index surged +1.3%, the highest closing level since Dec. 17. The broader Topix gained +1.1%.

Down-under, Aussie shares fell overnight, dragged lower by drug maker CSL after posting a disappointing H1 profit rise. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell -0.3% at the close of trade. The benchmark had rallied +0.3% yesterday. In S. Korea, stocks moved to session highs amid broader strength in Asian equities as the Kospi moved back towards its 2019 high. The benchmark rose +0.5% as memory-chip makers Samsung Electronics climbed more than +2%, which helped to offset the -1%-plus declines in construction stocks and investment banks.

In China and Hong Kong, stocks rally after President Trump hinted at a Sino-U.S trade truce extension. The Shanghai Composite index closed +1.8% higher, a level not seen since October, while the blue-chip CSI300 index rose +2% to its highest point since late September. In Hong Kong, stocks hit their highest close in six-months. The Hang Seng index ended +1.2% firmer, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises index closed +1.4% higher.

In Europe, regional indices trade slightly higher across the board following on from a strong close stateside yesterday.

U.S stocks are set to open in the ‘black’ (+0.12%).

Indices: Stoxx600 +0.28% at 363.78, FTSE +0.44% at 7,167.06, DAX +0.10% at 11,137.19, CAC-40 +0.23% at 5,067.98, IBEX-35 -0.06% at 8,978.00, FTSE MIB +0.62% at 19,928.50, SMI +0.15% at 9,134.50, S&P 500 Futures +0.12%

2. Oil gets a boost from Saudi output pledge, declining U.S stocks, gold higher

Crude oil prices have rallied overnight, after Saudi Arabia said it would cut crude exports and deliver an even deeper cut to its production, while U.S futures gained on a decline in domestic oil inventories.

Brent crude futures have rallied +88c to +$63.30 a barrel, while U.S crude oil futures gained +66c to trade at +$53.76 a barrel.

Crude has traded under pressure in recent weeks, hindered by a plethora of downside risks –
Both Sino-U.S trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty has dented the crude “bull’s” faith in owning the stock.

However, a helping hand has come from OPEC+, who said yesterday that it had cut its output by almost -800K bpd in January to +30.81M bpd.

Note: Most of that reduction has come from the Saudi’s – Energy minister Khalid al-Falih indicated that production would fall below +10M bpd in March, more than half a million bpd below the target it agreed to as part of a global deal to limit supply.

Also, U.S restrictions on Venezuela’s energy sector have crippled their exports and threaten to remove some -330K bpd in supply from the market in 2019.

Note: Year-to-date, oil prices have risen by +20% in 2019, yet most of that increase occurred in early January, before U.S sanctions on Venezuela.

However, capping crude prices is an IEA report yesterday indicating that “output would still likely outstrip demand this year, despite OPEC’s efforts and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.”

Ahead of the U.S open, gold prices have inched a tad higher, supported by a weaker buck on hopes of a deal between the U.S and China, but improved investor risk appetite is capping investors gains. Spot gold is up +0.1% to +$1,312.36 per ounce, while U.S gold futures have gained +0.1% to +$1,315.3 an ounce.

3. Central Banks leave rates on hold as expected

Earlier this morning in Sweden, the Riksbank left the repo rate unchanged at -0.25%, as expected.

Swedish policy makers indicated that growth is more “subdued,” and that economic activity remains strong and that conditions for inflation have not changed to a significant extent. Against that, the Riksbank indicated that the next increase would be during H2 2019, which was also left unchanged.

Overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held the official cash rate at +1.75%, in line with widespread expectations. The RBNZ reiterated the pledge to keep the rate at the current level through 2019 and 2020. Governor Orr repeated that the next move could be up or down. The announcement was “less dovish” than expected as the RBNZ expect low rates to maintain growth along with positive fiscal policy.

In Spain, bond yields are trading at their lowest in a year at around +1.24%, despite the elevated uncertainty around the upcoming budget vote and the possibility of snap elections.

Elsewhere, the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell less than -1 bps to +2.69%. In Germany, the 10-year Bund yield has decreased -1 bps to +0.13%, while in the U.K the 10-year Gilt yield has declined less than -1 bps to +1.184%.

4. U.S Dollar under pressure

Ahead of the U.S open, the USD is a tad softer and taking a reprieve from its recent “bull” run.

EUR/USD (€1.1318) is little changed but holding above the psychological €1.13 level for now. Investor focus is now turning to Germany’s GDP data due out on tomorrow. How bad are things in Europe’s largest economy?

GBP/USD (£1.2881) is a tad lower after U.K Jan CPI slowed more than expected, but moved back below BoE’s inflation target for the first time in 24-months (see below).

EUR/SEK (€10.4203 -0.53%) cross has moved lower after the Sweden’s Riksbank kept its policy steady and maintained its forward guidance for the next potential rate hike in the H2 part of 2019.

Note: SEK strength is being attributed to the Riksbank Board not renewing its mandate on FX intervention.

NZD/USD is firmer by +1.25% at NZ$0.6820 as the central bank pushed out its forecast for an interest-rate increase to early 2021, thereby paring investors’ dovish’ positions, who were looking for signs of a policy easing later this year.

5. U.K CPI falls below BoE target

Data out of the U.K this morning showed that January’s year-on-year CPI fell below the Bank of England’s (BoE) +2.0% target for the first time in two years to +1.8% from +2.1% in December.

Market expectations were looking for a smaller fall to +1.9%.

Digging deeper, core-CPI remained steady and as expected at +1.9%.

This morning’s lower-than-expected inflation data is not enough to push the pound lower as the market remains focused on uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

EUR/USD has ticked higher in the Wednesday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1320, down 0.06% on the day. On Thursday, eurozone industrial production declined 0.9%, below the estimate of -0.4%. In the U.S., the markets are expecting soft numbers from consumer inflation. CPI and Core CPI are forecast to post gains of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. On Thursday, the eurozone and Germany release GDP, and the U.S. publishes retail sales and PPI.

Risk appetite has improved on Wednesday, although the euro hasn’t taken advantage against the U.S. dollar. There was positive news on two fronts which cheered investors. In the U.S., lawmakers have tentatively agreed on a proposal which will avert another government shutdown, which would take effect on Friday. However, the deal needs to be approved by Congress and President Trump. The agreement does not provide Trump will funding for a border wall, and the deadlock between Congress and Trump over this issue triggered a government shutdown in January which lasted 35 days. Both sides are eager to avoid blame for a second shutdown, and Trump hinted earlier in the week that he would go along with the deal, albeit with reservations.

On the trade front, U.S. and Chinese officials are meeting for a third round of talks in Beijing. Investors have been frustrated by the lack of progress, but were relieved when Trump said that he could postpone a March 1 deadline for new tariffs on Chinese imports if the trade talks made sufficient progress. The U.S-China trade spat has rocked global equity markets and hurt global growth. If the tariffs are suspended, EUR/USD is likely to move higher.

Notes/Observations

• Continued optimism on upcoming high-level trade talks between US-China as China President Xi to meet with US trade delegation Friday including Lighthizer and Mnuchin
• Sweden Central Bank keeps policy steady and maintains its forward guidance for the next potential rate hike; did not renew its mandate on FX intervention
• UK Jan CPI slowed more than expected moved back below BOE inflation target for 1st time in 2 years (YoY: 1.8% v 2.0%e)
• Focus on US Jan CPI data to be released later today

Asia:

• New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 1.75% (as expected)
• RBNZ Gov Orr reiterated chances of rate cut had not increased, outlook was balanced up or down; did not rule out rate cut, best guess was that rate would be held steady for a long period
• China President Xi said to meet with US trade delegation Friday (Feb 15th) including Lighthizer and Mnuchin in Beijing
• South Korea Jan Unemployment Rate: 4.4% v 3.8%e (highest since 2010)

Europe:

• PM May said to have warned that she must pass a deal in 30 days or Parliament will delay Brexit. At least three 'remainer' UK cabinet ministers reportedly plan to support Cooper-Letwin plan on Feb 27th to end 'no-deal Brexit' threat
• PM May adviser Oliver Robbins reportedly was overheard saying that MPs will be given choice between PM May's deal or lengthy delay to Brexit
• PM May said to have the opportunity to win a late concession from EU leaders at Brussels summit March 21s
• PM May reportedly told business leaders that extending Article 50 process wouldn't serve any purpose
• Spain minority Socialist govt said to plan an early general election after its expected defeat in a budget vote on Wednesday

Americas:

• US President Trump: May consider delaying March 1st deadline if nearing a deal with China but would prefer not to. Would be seen as a sign of goodwill in trade talks. Could not say was happy about border deal; to have meeting on deal later on Tuesday, did not expect govt shutdown. Might add to current congressional border proposal; current plan was not doing the trick
• Fed's George (hawk, voter): Support for pausing interest rate hikes was to let Fed assess the impact of past hikes. inflation pressures did not appear very strong
• Fed Mester (hawk, non-voter): monetary policy does not seem far behind or ahead of the curve; inflation likely to move below 2% in first part of the year due to low energy prices. Plans would be finalized for ending balance sheet runoff and completing balance sheet normalization at coming meetings

Energy:

• Weekly API Oil Inventories: Crude: -1M v +2.5M prior

Macro

• (SE) Sweden: The Riksbank left the repo rate unchanged at -0.25%, as expected. While growth is more subdued, economic activity is still strong and the conditions for inflation have not changed to a significant extent. Against that background, the Riksbank not only left the repo rate, but also the guidance that the next increase will be during the second half of 2019 unchanged.
• (NZ) New Zealand: The RBNZ held the official cash rate at 1.75%, in line with widespread expectations. The RBNZ reiterated the pledge to keep the rate at the current level through 2019 and 2020. They repeated that the next move could be up or down. Less dovish than expected then as the RBNZ expect low rates to maintain growth along with positive fiscal policy.

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 +0.28% at 363.78, FTSE +0.44% at 7,167.06, DAX +0.10% at 11,137.19, CAC-40 +0.23% at 5,067.98, IBEX-35 -0.06% at 8,978.00, FTSE MIB +0.62% at 19,928.50, SMI +0.15% at 9,134.50, S&P 500 Futures +0.12%]
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equities European Indices trade slightly higher across the board following on from a strong close on Wallstreet overnight and higher futures this morning as positive momentum continues. In the UK, inflation fell below the BoE target for the first time in two years ahead of high stake talks between UK PM may and the EU in an attempt to forge a Brexit deal. On the corporate front on another busy morning for corporate earnings shares of Dutch Beverage name Heineken trades higher after reporting a top and bottom line beat, with Ingenico another notable riser despite lower year on year earnings but rises on a more optimistic 2019 outlook. Other notable gainers include Rexel, Akza Nobel, Tele2, Tullow Oil, Dunelm and IHG among others. ABN Amro on the other hand declines over 7% as the earnings which fell far short of consensus; Bic, Akastor and Clariant are among other notable decliners after earnings. Elsewhere Kloeckner rises on steeping down of its CFO, while Clinigen rises over 10% after reaching an agreement with Novartis to acquires US rights to Proleukin. Looking ahead notable earners include Dish Network, Teva, Hilton Worldwide, Diabold Nixdorf and Lithia Motors among others.
• Consumer discretionary: Heineken Holding [HEIA.NL] +5.5% (earnings), Ingenico [ING.FR] +8% (earnings), Takeaway.com [T5W.DE] +0.5% (earnings), Dunelm Group [DNLM.UK] +2.5% (earnings), InterContinental Hotels Group [IHG.UK] +1% (acquisition)
• Materials: Akzo Nobel [AKZA.NL] +3.5% (earnings; dividend cut)
• Energy: Tullow Oil [TLW.UK] +3% (earnings)
• Financials: ABN AMRO Holding [ABN.NL] -7% (earnings), Amundi [AMUN.FR] +5% (earnings)
• Healthcare: Clinigen Group [CLIN.UK] +13% (to acquire drug rights from Novartis)
• Industrials: Leonardo [LDO.IT] +1% (contract), Rolls Royce Holdings [RR.UK] +2.5% (analyst action)
• Technology: Wirecard [WDI.DE] -2% (momentum; several lawfirms to investigate on behalf of investors), Rexel [RXL.FR] +3.5% (earnings)
• Telecom: Tele2 [TEL2A.SE] +2% (earnings; dividend raise)

Speakers

• Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Policy Statement reiterated that its next potential hike to take place in H2 2019 and then saw two hikes annual afterwards. Reiterated that monetary policy needs to proceed cautiously and proceed at a slow pace afterward. The Board did not extend the mandate for FX intervention
• Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves post rate decision press conference noted that not much had happened since December; domestic market remained strong. Reiterated view that SEK currency (Krona) to gradually strengthen over time
• ECB's Lane (Ireland): Have been focused on Brexit risks for a long time. No deal Brexit would deal a severe blow to the Irish economy
• UK Brexit Sec Barclay: Brexit deal would help to give business confidence. EU leaders did not want an extension of Brexit uncertainty
• Italy League party official Borghi (budget committee): Ruling coalition has no intention to sell any of the Bank of Italy's gold reserves
• South Africa State-owned utility Eskom said to be technically insolvent and would run out of money by April in the absence of govt help
• BOJ Gov Kuroda: Inflation is slowly moving towards 2%; to continue to watch for risks while conducting policy. Stated that was his responsibility to achieve 2% inflation target by 'persistently' continuing stimulus policy.
• IEA Monthly Oil Report maintained 2019 global oil demand growth forecast at 1.4M bpd while raising 2019 Non-Opec supply from 1.6M bpd to 1.8M. Oil market were still working off the surpluses built up in H2 2018. US sanctions on Venezuela might create problems for crude quality but not quantity

Currencies/Fixed Income

• USD was slightly softer and taking a reprieve from its recent bull run.
• EUR/USD was little changed but holding above the 1.13 level. Focus turning to the Germany GDP data due out on Thursday (tomorrow).
• GBP/USD was slightly lower after UK Jan CPI slowed more than expected moved back below BOE inflation target for 1st time in 2 years (YoY: 1.8% v 2.0%e). Analysts see the next potential BOE rate hike in 2021. Pair trading below the 1.29 level ahead of the NY morning.
• EUR/SEK cross moved lower after the Sweden Central Bank kept its policy steady and maintained its forward guidance for the next potential rate hike in the H2 part of 2019. The SEK strength was attributed to the Riksbank Board not renewing its mandate on FX intervention
• The NZD currency was firmer by 1.7% (along with higher NZ bond yields as the central bank pushed out its forecast for an interest-rate increase to early 2021, thereby paring investors' dovish positions, who were looking for signs of a policy easing later this year. RBNZ Gov Orr reiterated chances of rate cut had not increased
• Spanish bond yields are trading at their lowest in a year at around 1.24%, despite the elevated uncertainty around the upcoming budget vote and the possibility of snap election. Spain's Socialist Party-controlled governing coalition needs votes from smaller parties to get majority to pass its spending plans, but some smaller, Catalan parties are likely to vote against the measure

Economic Data

• (RO) Romania Jan CPI M/M: 0.8% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.3%e
• (NO) Norway Q4 Average Monthly Earnings Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.7% prior
• (CZ) Czech Jan CPI M/M: 1.0% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.1%e
• (TW) Taiwan Q4 Final GDP Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e
• (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) left the Repo Rate unchanged at -0.25% (as expected) and did not renew its mandate on FX intervention
• (CZ) Czech Dec Current Account Balance (CZK): +0.5B v -4.1Be
• (IS) Iceland Jan International Reserves (ISK): 757B v 736B prior
• (UK) Jan CPI M/M: -0.8% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.9%e (back below BOE target for 1st time since Jan 2017); CPI Core Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9%e; CPIH Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.9%e
• (UK) Jan RPI M/M: -0.9% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.6%e; RPI Ex-mortgage interest payments (RPI-X) Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.6%e; Retail Price Index: 283.0 v 283.2e
• (UK) Jan PPI Input M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 3.8%e
• (UK) Jan PPI Output M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.2%e
• (UK) Jan PPI Output Core M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.3%e
• (UK) Jan ONS House Price Index Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.5%e
• (EU) Euro Zone Dec Industrial Production M/M: -0.9% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -4.2% v -3.3%e

Fixed Income Issuance

• (IN) India sold total INR100B vs. INR100B indicated in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills
• (DK) Denmark sold DKK1.5B in 3-month bills; Avg Yield: -0.650% v -0.675% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.67x v 2.58x prior
• (SE) Sweden sold SEK1.5B in 0.75% 2028 bond; Avg Yield: 0.3489% v 0.6430% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 3.02x prior
• (NO) Norway sold NOK2.0B vs. NOK2.0B indicated in 2021 bonds; Avg Yield: 1.12% v 1.06% prior;Bid-to-cover: 4.75x v 3.88x prior
• (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €4.5B vs. €3.5-4.5B indicated range in 2021 and 2025 BTP bonds
• Sold €2.25B vs. €1.75-2.25 indicated range in 2.30% Oct 2021 BTP; Avg Yield: 0.99% v 1.07% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.77x v 1.49x prior (Jan 11th 2019)
• Sold €2.25B vs.€1.75-2.25B indicated range in 2.50% Nov 2025 BTP; Avg Yield: 2.26% v 2.35% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.38x v 1.64x prior
• (CH) Switzerland sold total CHF215.1M in 2032 and 2055 bonds

Looking Ahead

• 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €1.5B in 2.50% Aug 2046 Bunds
• 05:30 (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell €0.75-1.0B in 2029 and 2034 OT bonds
• 06:00 (IL) Israel Jan Trade Balance: No est v -$2.2B prior
• 06:00 (PT) Portugal Q4 Labour Costs Y/Y: No est v 1.5% prior
• 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Dec Retail Sales M/M: -2.7%e v +3.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 3.1% prior
• 06:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Retail Sales M/M: -0.1%e v +2.9% prior; Y/Y: 3.8%e v 4.4% prior
• 06:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Broad Retail Sales M/M: -1.0%e v 1.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.6%e v 5.8% prior
• 06:00 (RU) Russia OFZ Bond auction results; (no limited provided) in issuance under 2 tranches
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
• 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Feb 8th: No est v -2.5% prior
• 07:00 (IS) Iceland Jan Unemployment Rate: No est v 2.7% prior
• 07:00 (UK) Weekly PM May question time in House of Commons
• 07:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank to comment on CPI data
• 08:00 (PL) Poland Dec Current Account Balance: -€1.0Be v -€0.2B prior; Trade Balance: -€1.2Be v -€0.2B prior; Exports: €16.6Be v €20.0B prior; Imports: €17.9Be v €20.3B prior - 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Jan Minutes
• 08:00 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
• 08:30 (US) Jan CPI M/M: +0.1%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.9% prior
• 08:30 (US) Jan CPI (Ex-food/energy) M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.2% prior
• 08:30 (US) Jan CPI Index NSA: 251.617e v 251.233; CPI Core Index: 260.574e v 260.027 prior
• 08:30 (US) Jan Real Avg Weekly Earnings Y/Y: No est v 1.4% prior (revised from 1.2%); Real Avg Hourly Earning Y/Y: No est v 1.3% prior (revised from 1.1%)
• 08:30 (CA) Canada Jan Teranet House Price Index M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.5% prior; House Price Index (HP): No est v 224.07 prior
• 08:50 (US) Fed's Mester (hawk, non-voter) on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
• 08:50 (US) Fed's Bostic (dove, non-voter) to Speak to European Financial Forum in Dublin
• 09:00 (IT) ECB's Visco (Italy)
• 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
• 12:00 (US) Fed's Harker (dove, non-voter)
• 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 5-year notes
• 14:00 (US) Dec Monthly Budget Statement: -$11.0Be v -$204.9B prior