Sample Category Title

Pivot (invalidation): 1.3635

Our preference Short positions below 1.3635 with targets at 1.3590 & 1.3565 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.3635 look for further upside with 1.3660 & 1.3690 as targets.

Comment The RSI is below its neutrality area at 50%

Pivot (invalidation): 0.9885

Our preference Short positions below 0.9885 with targets at 0.9835 & 0.9790 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 0.9885 look for further upside with 0.9910 & 0.9930 as targets.

Comment The RSI advocates for further downside.

The final trading week of 2018 has been explosively volatile and wildly unpredictable due to geopolitical risks.

Global sentiment repeatedly swung from extremely bearish to bullish this week as investors tussled with concerns over slowing global growth, US-China trade developments, Brexit-related uncertainty and a partial US government shutdown. Although US stock markets bounced back to life yesterday to end positive and Asian shares traded mostly higher this morning, it is certainly too early for any celebrations. With investor appetite for riskier assets seen diminishing amid the unfavourable market conditions, global equity markets remain vulnerable to downside shocks. The geopolitical risk factors weighing painfully on global sentiment arelikely to encourage investors to seek safety in the Japanese Yen and Gold.

Dollar hit by growth concerns and US politics

Buying sentiment towards the Dollar was dealt a sharp blow after a drop in US consumer confidence rekindled fears over a slowdown in economic momentum.

Concern over a partial US government shutdown compounded to the Greenback’s woes with the Dollar Index trading marginally below 96.45 as of writing. With slowing growth fears threatening the Dollar’s safe-haven status, the sentiment pendulum could swing in favour of the bears in 2019. In regards to the technical picture, the Dollar Index is shaky on the daily charts with prices trading below the 96.50 support. Sustained weakness below this level has the potential to open a path towards 96.00 in the near term.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

It is shaping up to be an incredibly positive trading week for Gold prices thanks to heightened geopolitical risks and Dollar weakness.

Explosively volatile equity markets, global growth fears, Brexit uncertainty and political instability in Washington have accelerated the flight to safety – ultimately sending Gold prices to levels not seen in more than 6 months. With turbulent market conditions guiding investors towards safe-haven assets, Gold is on route to concluding 2018 firmly above the $1,272 resistance level. The yellow metal has the potential to become a major talking point across markets next year, especially when concidering how the Dollar is seen weakening on growth concerns and Fed expected to take a pause on rate hikes in 2019. Taking a look at the technical picture, a yearly close above $1,272 is likely to trigger a move higher towards the $1,288 and $1,300 level.

Pivot (invalidation): 110.80

Our preference Short positions below 110.80 with targets at 110.25 & 110.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 110.80 look for further upside with 111.10 & 111.40 as targets.

Comment The break below 110.80 is a negative signal that has opened a path to 110.25.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.2640

Our preference Long positions above 1.2640 with targets at 1.2675 & 1.2700 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.2640 look for further downside with 1.2620 & 1.2605 as targets.

Comment The RSI calls for a new upleg.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.1425

Our preference Long positions above 1.1425 with targets at 1.1475 & 1.1500 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.1425 look for further downside with 1.1405 & 1.1385 as targets.

Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further advance.

The volatility of the Crude has oil returned to the focus of the markets in 2018. Until October, it maintained the trend for growth. In the first half of the year there were restrictions of OPEC + output, and growth of production in the USA did not compensate growth of consumption.

In June, the restrictions were lifted, and the United States continued to set its own production records.

Later, a sale on global stock markets and signs of cooling of world growth were added to pressure factors. As a result, Brent ends the year near $50, losing 40% of peak levels from the end of September.

The euro in 2018 survived several waves of decline. Initially, he was pressed for elections in Italy, where the populists won the majority in the Government. It returned fears that the country could come out of the eurozone in the coming years. In the middle of the year, the euro was declining due to the effects of trade wars.

As a result, starting the year near 1.25, EURUSD sank to 1.12 in November. Only the change of the Fed tone and the agreement between the government and EU has stopped the pressure. Despite the collapse of the stock markets, which usually spur pressure on the euro, the pair of EURUSD remained in the corridor 1.125-1.1500.

This year there were substantive negotiations between the EU and Britain. Sentiments have spoiled the loud resigns in the U.K. government of those who disagreed with the position of PM Theresa May.

FxPro analyst said that all this raised the chances of an unordered, hard, exit and turned the pressure on the GBP. However, the pound took over its losses thanks to subsequent progress: The British Prime minister and the Minister of Brexit was able to harmonize her plan with the EU.

However, in mid-December the document did not got approve the government that the GBPUSD sent below 1.27 was an important support and earlier kept the pound from declining for about a year and a half.

Interestingly, but for the year sterling survive its positions to euro, as the common currency had its own reasons for the decline.

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.1449

The pair is currently trading in a wide range and price is nearing the upperside. We expect a decline after a test around 1.1500. Break through 1.1350 will be negative targeting 1.1260.

USD/JPY

Current level - 110.56

This market remains in a downtrend and we can expect a break of the support 110.30, which will furhter lead the price lower. However, a break up above 111.40, would unlock potential level aroubd 112.20.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.2665

The pair is in a clear consolidation phase and a big move can be expected if the price breaks either way. In order for the bulls to take over we must see a break of that level. Alternatively if this doesn't happen, we might see a drop back to the 1.25 zone.