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Silver: White Metal Trading A Tad Higher In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 1.21% against the USD and closed at USD15.10 per ounce.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 15.11, with silver trading slightly higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 14.90, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.70. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 15.28, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 15.45.
The white metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.
Crude Oil: Oil Trading Lower This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 8.79% against the USD and closed at USD46.55 per barrel.
In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 46.06, with oil trading 1.05% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 43.41, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 40.75. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 47.86, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 49.65.
Crude oil is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving average.
GBPUSD Recovery Halted Above Key 1.2693 Barrier
GBPUSD turned weaker after closing slightly above the 1.2693 key resistance on Monday, looking unable to build on its recent rebound from fresh yearly lows. In subsequent sessions, the pair may retain this consolidation phase given that the RSI remains close to its 50 neutral mark. The Ichimoku indicators also support this view as both the red Tenkan-sen and the blue Kijun-sen line seem to be flattening, though the negatively-sloped simple moving averages (MA) hint that an uptrend is not on the radar yet.
On the downside, the 1.2582 barrier could provide immediate support as it did several times during the past two years. Below that the focus will shift to the 1.2475 bottom, where another failure could trigger stronger selling momentum, probably towards 1.2350.
Alternatively, should the market gain strength above the 1.2693 level, resistance may appear around 1.2830, a previously congestion area. Even higher, the bullish action may take a pause at 1.2920, with traders looking at 1.3040 in case this proves a weak obstacle as well.
In the three-month period, the pair is still in a bearish mode, printing lower highs and lower lows. The negative momentum in the 50 and the 200-day MAs indicates that the chances for a trend reversal are very low at the moment.
Summarizing, GBPUSD holds a neutral bias in the short-term and a bearish one in the medium-term picture.
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8965; (P) 0.8988; (R1) 0.9009; More...
Consolidation from 0.9086 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral first. Downside of the consolidation should be contained by 0.8931 resistance turned support to bring another rise. On the upside firm break of 0.9098 resistance will extend the whole rise from 0.8655 to 0.9304 key resistance next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, firm break of 0.8931 will indicate near term reversal and target 0.8810 support and below.
In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). It should be in medium term rising leg for 0.9304. Meanwhile, in case of another fall, down side should be contained by 0.8620/55 support zone to bring rebound.
Forex Technical Analysis: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
EUR/USD
Current level - 1.1382
As long as the pair stays above 1.1265, I expect a move towards 1.1533 and possibly 1.1609. Break through 1.1265 will be negative targeting 1.1189 and 1.1081.
| Resistance | Support | ||
| intraday | intraweek | intraday | intraweek |
| 1.1400 | 1.1450 | 1.1310 | 1.1210 |
| 1.1440 | 1.1500 | 1.1270 | 1.0850 |
USD/JPY
Current level - 110.92
I expect the current correction to be limited to the zone 111.80-112 00 and resuming of the downtrend towards 110.00.
| Resistance | Support | ||
| intraday | intraweek | intraday | intraweek |
| 111.65 | 113.00 | 111.00 | 110.55 |
| 112.20 | 114.50 | 110.55 | 109.70 |
GBP/USD
Current level - 1.2658
The expectations are for a new test of the 1.2700 resistance. In order for the bulls to take over we must see a break of that level. Alternatively if this doesn't happen, we might see a drop back to the 1.25 zone.
| Resistance | Support | ||
| intraday | intraweek | intraday | intraweek |
| 1.2650 | 1.2880 | 1.2500 | 1.2360 |
| 1.2700 | 1.3030 | 1.2460 | 1.2140 |
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6000; (P) 1.6115; (R1) 1.6178; More....
A temporary top is in place at 1.6228 in EUR/AUD with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. Further rally is expected as long as 1.5884 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, above 1.6228 will extend the rise from 1.5346 to retest 1.6357 high. At this point, we'd be cautious on topping around there to bring pull back. On the downside, break of 1.5884 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside for 1.5346 support.
In the bigger picture, no change in the view that 1.6357 is a medium term top. But the strong rebound ahead of 1.5271 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6357 at 1.5313) suggests price actions from 1.6357 are developing into sideway consolidation, rather than a deep correction. The range of 1.5271/6357 is likely set for the consolidation. And we don't expect a break of the range any time soon. But decisive break of 1.6357 will resume the larger up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) to 1.6587 (2015 high).
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1259; (P) 1.1285; (R1) 1.1331; More...
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, break of 1.1224 will resume the decline from 1.1501 to 1.1173 low. On the upside, though, break of 1.1348 resistance should confirm near term reversal and target 1.1501 resistance.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1325; (P) 1.1373; (R1) 1.1404; More.....
EUR/USD is staying in range of 1.1270/1405, and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 1.1485 resistance will revive the case of near term reversal. Bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.1621 resistance first. Break will target 1.1814 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.1270 will, instead, revive the bearish case that down trend from 1.2555 is still in progress. Bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1186 key fibonacci level.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1814 resistance holds, down trend down trend from 1.2555 medium term top is still in progress and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. However, break of 1.1814 will confirm completion of such down trend and turn medium term outlook bullish.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2603; (P) 1.2662; (R1) 1.2692; More....
No change in GBP/USD's outlook as it's staying in consolidation from 1.2476. Stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. Upside should be limited by 1.2811 resistance to bring decline resumption. On the downside, break of 1.2476 will extend larger down trend from 1.4376 to 61.8% projection of 1.4376 to 1.2661 from 1.3174 at 1.2114. However, firm break of 1.2811 will be an early signal of trend reversal and turn focus back to 1.3174 resistance.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it's resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). And this will now remain the preferred case as long as 1.3174 structural resistance holds. GBP/USD should now target a test on 1.1946 first. Decisive break there will confirm our bearish view.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.52; (P) 110.97; (R1) 111.82; More..
Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. Focus is back on 111.46 minor resistance. With 109.76 key support intact, break of 111.46 will revive near term bullishness. In this case, intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 112.67) first. On the downside, below 110.13 will target 109.76 support.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 (2015 high) are seen as a long term corrective pattern, no change in this view. Apparently, such corrective pattern is not completed yet. Break of 109.76 support will start another medium term down leg to 98.97/104.62 support zone. On the upside, break of 114.73 resistance will likely extend the rise from 98.97 through 118.65 resistance.


















