Sample Category Title

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.16% against the CAD and closed at 1.3373 on Friday.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3379, with the USD trading marginally higher against the CAD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3364, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3349. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3398, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3417.

Trading trends in the Loonie today is expected to be determined by Canada’s existing home sales for November, scheduled to release later in the day.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.62% against the USD and closed at 0.7178 on Friday.

LME Copper prices declined 1.5% or $92.0/MT to $6104.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.8% or $16.0/MT to $1908.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7178, with the AUD trading flat against the USD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7155, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7131. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7198, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7217.

Looking ahead, investors would await the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting minutes for December, slated to release in the early hours tomorrow.

The currency pair is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold declined 0.3% against the USD and closed at USD1242.50 per ounce on Friday, amid strength in the greenback.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1241.40, with gold trading 0.09% lower against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1236.43, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1231.47. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1246.43, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1251.47.

The yellow metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 1.11% against the USD and closed at USD14.66 per ounce on Friday, tracking losses in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 14.64, with silver trading 0.14% lower against the USD from Friday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 14.54, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.44. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 14.76, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 14.89.

The white metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil declined 3.14% against the USD and closed at USD51.15 per barrel on Friday, as weak economic data from China reigned concerns of lower fuel demand from the country. Meanwhile, fresh figures from Baker Hughes disclosed that the number of active oil rigs dropped by 4 to 873 in the week ended 14 December.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 51.32, with oil trading 0.33% higher against the USD from Friday’s close. However, oil prices continue to remain under pressure amid weaker growth in major economies and concerns about oversupply.

The pair is expected to find support at 50.54, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 49.76. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 52.40, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 53.48.

Crude oil is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

GBP/USD formed support near 1.2480 and later recovered, but it is facing solid hurdles near 1.2640. EUR/GBP is following a declining path and it could decline below 0.8950.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP

• The British Pound is trading in a bearish zone below the 1.2640 and 1.2680 resistance levels.
• There is a key bearish trend line in place with resistance at 1.2640 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
• EUR/GBP is following a declining channel with resistance at 0.9018 on the hourly chart.
• There is a risk of more losses below the 0.8950 and 0.8940 support levels in the near term.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British Pound declined this past week from the 1.2800 swing high against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair traded below the 1.2700 and 1.2500 support levels before buyers appeared near 1.2480.

The pair traded as low as 1.2477 on FXOpen and settled below the 50 hourly simple moving average. Later, there was a decent recovery and the price moved above the 1.2550 and 1.2600 resistance levels.

A high was formed at 1.2686 and later the price declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2477 low to 1.2686 high. Moreover, there was a close below the 1.2600 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

These are negative signs and it seems like the pair may continue to decline towards 1.2520 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.2477 low to 1.2686 high. Below 1.2520, the pair could even retest the 1.2480 support area.

On the upside, an initial resistance is near 1.2600 and the 50 hourly SMA. Moreover, there is a key bearish trend line in place with resistance at 1.2640 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

Therefore, if the pair corrects higher, it is likely to face a lot of sellers near the 1.2600 and 1.2640 resistance levels.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

The Euro surged higher this past week and traded above the 0.9000 and 0.9050 resistance levels against the British Pound. The EUR/GBP pair traded towards the 0.9100 resistance area and topped near the 0.9095 level.

Later, the pair corrected lower and traded below the 0.9050 support level. There was even a break below the 0.9000 support and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

However, the 0.8950-60 area acted as a solid support and prevented declines on a few occasions. The pair is currently trading above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.9023 high to 0.8952 low.

On the upside, there are many resistances near the 0.9000 and 0.9015 levels. There is also a declining channel formed with resistance at 0.9018 on the hourly chart. An intermediate resistance is the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the 0.9023 high to 0.8952 low.

Therefore, if the pair corrects higher from the current levels, it could find sellers near the 0.9000 and 0.9015 resistance levels. Above the channel, the pair may revisit the 0.9050 and 0.9080 levels.

On the downside, the main support is at 0.8950, below which there is a risk of more losses towards the 0.8920 or 0.8900 support levels.

First, a review of last week's events:

EUR/USD. If the basic forecast for the past week had assumed a lateral movement in channel 1.1310-1.1415, the meeting of the European Central Bank and the subsequent conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi were called as the basic event. The ECB made a long-promised decision on January 1, 2019 to complete the quantitative easing program, and Draghi demotivated investors with a statement of increased risks. Based on this, the forecasts of the region's economic growth for 2018-19 were lowered, to which the euro responded with a fall, but still remained within the limits of the stated channel.
The key support 1.1300 was broken already on Friday, December 14, when the Bundesbank lowered its forecasts for Germany's GDP and inflation. The regulator now expects that the growth of the economy in the outgoing year will not be 2.0%, as previously assumed, but only 1.5%. As for the 2019, the forecast here was lowered from 1.9% to 1.6%. The gloomy business performance indicators finally disappointed the market, and the pair went down sharply, reaching the local bottom at 1.1270. After that, a small rebound followed, returning it to the level of 1.1300, which turned from support to resistance; GBP/USD. Pound is still ruled by Brexit. As expected, the vote in the British Parliament on the terms of a divorce from the EU didn't have a result. It was just canceled. As a result, by Wednesday, December 12, the pair dropped to the level of 1.2474, having lost 285 points compared to the beginning of the week. As for the end of the five-day week, it found itself near the mark of 1.25 85;

USD/JPY. Last week, 45% of experts voted for the pair's growth, and 113.20, 113.65 and 114.00 were indicated as resistance levels. The truth, as often happens, was in the middle, and the weekly high was noted at the height of 113.70. The final chord of the week sounded at the level of 113.35; Cryptocurrencies. The news background in recent days has been quite blurred, and positive news alternated with negative news. Among the events that are encouraging are the possible release of the Japanese crypto exchange Coincheck to the US market, the record for Bitcoin analogue ETF demand in Switzerland, and the news that the embedded Ethereum wallet will appear in the Opera browser. A balance to these was the news that for the first time in history, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States fined the cryptocurrency bank AriseBank because of fraud allegations. The bulls were also frustrated by the news that due to the unfavorable situation in the cryptocurrency market, the mining giant Bitmain is closing its unit in Israel.

Against such a background, Bitcoin was growing and falling, and as a result, on the evening of Friday, December 14, it turned out to be where it had been a week ago, and even updated the low of the entire 2018, falling to the level of $3.225.

As for the basic altcoins, such as Ethereum (ETH / USD), Litecoin (LTC / USD) and Ripple (XRP / USD), they obediently repeated the movements of the reference cryptocurrency all week.

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

EUR/USD. The color here is red. It is almost an unprecedented case: 100% of the oscillators and 100% of the indicators on H4 and D1 are painted exactly in this color. 70% of experts also vote for the growth of the dollar and the fall of the pair. The reason for this is interest rates.

The likelihood that the Fed will announce a rate increase from 2.25% to 2.5% on Wednesday December 19 is over 75%. In addition, the market is confidently expecting one or two more increases next year. As for the growth of the euro rates, there is a complete uncertainty here. Draghi promised to keep the rate at zero level until the summer of 2019. But this summer rise is a big question. So, most investors are now looking south, to the zone of the year low, which was recorded on November 12, 1.1215. That it is the main goal for the pair. The nearest support is 1.1265;

The alternative scenario is supported by 30% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1. In the event the developments are according to their scenario, the pair will once again rise above the strong support/resistance level of 1.1300 and can even reach Pivot Point of the three-week side channel of 1.1360. The following targets are 1.1400 and 1.1440;

GBP/USD. The British currency is facing a lot of events next week. On Wednesday, December 19, a block of inflation data will be published. And even if the inflation grows, the market may consider that such an increase is due to the weakening of the pound because of Brexit. The next day, the Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision, which is likely to remain unchanged, which will also play against the pound. Data on the GDP growth rates on Friday is unlikely to seriously affect the overall dynamics of the British currency. And they are negative. 50% of experts and about 90% of indicators agree with this. According to their forecast, the pair may decline first to the horizon of 1.2475, and then another 75 points lower. 20% of analysts have taken a neutral position, and the remaining 30% have voted for the pair's growth to the zone of 1.2670-1.2700;

USD/JPY. Regarding the future of this pair, the indicators do not give any clear guidelines: their readings are divided almost equally. The same applies to the expert opinions: 45% of them are for the fall of the pair, 50% are for the continuation of growth and 5% just shake their shoulders. Such uncertainty becomes clear if you look at the pair's chart, which is now located approximately in the middle of the six-week side channel 112.30-114.00.

The meeting of the Bank of Japan is unlikely to affect the quotes of the pair, and the only event that could seriously move it up is the already mentioned decision of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate. In this case, according to many analysts, the pair can break through the upper boundary of the channel and reach the zone of 114.55-114.75.

The graphical analysis on D1 has taken a sharply opposite position, which predicts the pair to fall to support 112.20 and then to the level 111.75; cryptocurrency. 60% of experts expect Bitcoin to continue the downtrend to the strong zone, fixed in July-August 2018, $2,500-2,700. The nearest support is in the $2,940-2.050 zone. In addition to the overall negative dynamics, the experience of the past year also plays in favor of bears, when at the end of

December many wallet owners wanted to transfer their crypto savings to fiat currencies. On the other hand, when analyzing the futures, one can see a slight increase (about 10%) of bullish positions, which gives grounds for 20% of analysts to talk about the pair going to the side trend, and another 20% to be filled with optimism in anticipation of the trend reversal and the rise of the pair to 4,500.

As suggested in the CFTC Commitments of Traders report in the week ended December 11, NET LENGTH in USD Index dropped modestly while bets increased on both sides. All other major currencies stayed in NET SHORT positions. During the week, the greenback strengthened against major currencies, except for against Swiss franc. Speculative longs on USD index added +1 307 contracts while shorts gained +1 634, reducing the NET LENGTH, by -327 contracts, to 39 122 contracts.

Concerning EUR and GBP futures, speculative long positions for the former gained +1 223 contracts while shorts dropped -3 266 contracts, trimming NET SHORT to 56 287 for the week. NET SHORT for GBP futures increased +2 669 contracts to 53 419. Speculative longs added +3 714 contracts while speculative shorts soared +6 383 contracts for the week. The outlook for sterling remains gloomy in the near future. Although PM Theresa May survived no-confidence vote, whether her Brexit deal can got approved by the Parliament is highly uncertain.

On safe-haven currencies, Net SHORT for CHF futures fell -1 528 contracts to 18 267. NET SHORT for JPY futures plunged -12 1602 contracts to 97 606 during the week. Bets shrank on both sides.

On commodity currencies . NET SHORT for AUD futures fell -5 224 contracts to 45 531. Speculative long positions slipped -2 223 contracts while shorts dived -7 447 contracts. NET SHORT for NZD futures decreased -6 056 contracts to 15 241. NET SHORT for CAD futures slipped -1 267 contracts to 11 669.

STOCKS

Dow (24100.51, -2.02%) has started to look bearish on a break below 24500 seen last week. If the index is unable to rise back to levels above 24500, it could be vulnerable to a fall towards 23500 or even lower in the medium term. Watch price action near 24000-24500 region.

The DAX (10865.77, -0.54%) is likely to move up towards 11200 in the near term. The current dip could be a correction within the rise from 10600 towards 11200.

The Nikkei (21536.85, +0.76%) has bounced well from support near 21200. While the index trades higher, there is scope of a rise towards 22400 again in the medium term. Broad range of 23000-21200 could hold for the next 2-3 weeks.

Shanghai (2598.34, +0.17%) is trading near 2600. While resistance at 2650 holds, near term looks bearish towards 2550-2500.

Nifty (10805.45, +0.13%) closed above 10800 on Friday and it could manage to test the resistance at 10850 before coming off from there. Failure to face rejection from 10850 could be bullish in the longer run. Watch price movement in the crucial 10800-10850 region.

COMMODITIES

Overall global commodities are stable and continue to trade in a sideways narrow range which is likely to break soon initiating some volatility in the commodity prices.

Brent (60.27) and WTI (51.57) are trading lower today. Stuck within the 58-60 and 50-52 region respectively, the crude prices could remain stable for a couple of sessions before some volatility gets into the prices. The current ranged phase is likely to be a base formation before a sharp rally is initiated.

Gold (1241.40), Silver (14.65) and Copper (2.7555) are all ranged within the narrow sideways zone and a break on either side looks possible in the near term. Gold could come down to test 1230 while below 1260; Silver could head towards 15 before facing rejection and falling back towards 14.25 while Copper is stuck in the 2.70-2.85 region and could soon break on either side to see a sharp movement.

FOREX

Dollar Index (97.41) came off after testing 97.75 on the upside. Resistance at 98 on the weekly and 3-day candles seem important and strong just now and while that holds, Dollar Index could be stuck in the 98-96 region for a couple of more weeks before coming off in the longer run.

Euro (1.1312) is holding well below resistance at 1.14 and could well test 1.12 on the downside before again bouncing back towards 1.14/15.

Dollar Yen (113.46) has enough room on the downside towards 112.50 while the upside could be restricted to 114 as seen on the daily candles. Trading near the upper extreme of the 112.50-114.00 region, we could soon see a fall in Dollar Yen. Medium term looks bearish.

Euro-Yen (128.36) has immediate trend support at 128 and while that holds, the pair could see a bounce towards 129.0-129.5 in the near term. This bounce in Euro-Yen could be indicative of upcoming Euro strength.

Pound (1.2584) is looking bearish just now while below 1.2650 and has room on the downside towards 1.24.

Aussie (0.7180) too looks bearish and could test 0.71-0.70 in the near term on a sustained break below 0.7150.

Dollar Rupee (71.77) opened below last weeks closing at 71.90. It could trade above 71.50 for the next 1-2 sessions and try to attempt levels of 72.00/20 on the upside. We may see trade within 71.50-72.20 in the next few sessions.

INTEREST RATES

The US yields have fallen sharply over the last week and could now see some corrective upmove in the near term. The US 10Yr (2.89%) is stable and could possibly see a slight upmove towards 2.92%.

The German 10Yr (0.25%) has fallen below immediate support at 0.30%. The 5Yr (-0.30%) and the 30Yr (0.89%) are also trading lower and could fall in the near term. The German yields look bearish for the near term.

The 10Yr GOI (7.4275%) is trading above 7.40% and while it trades higher, it could move up towards 7.50-7.55% in the near term.

According to the CFTC Commitments of Traders report for the week ended December 11,  NET LENGTH for crude oil futures continued to fall. Speculative long positions of crude oil futures slipped -708 contracts, while shorts jumped +19 932 contracts, resulting in a fall in NET LENGTH, by -20 640 contracts, to 309 506 contracts. Both crude oil benchmarks remained under pressure during the reporting week. The front-month WTI contract fell -3% while the Brent contract was down -3.03%. For refined oil products, NET SHORT  for heating oil  trimmed, by -1 315 contracts, to 3 939 contracts for the week. Bets on both sides dropped. NET LENGTH for gasoline gained +4 119 contracts to 77 138. The front-month Nymex contract for heating oil dived -5.24% while RBOB gasoline dropped -5.02%. NET LENGTH for natural gas futures gained +2 842 contracts, to 22 884 contracts for the week. Yet, bets for longs and shorts fell for the week. The Nymex contract slipped -1.12% for the week.

On the precious metal complex, bets for gold futures were trimmed on both the long and short sides. Speculative long positions slipped -3 419 contracts, while shorts dived -14 917, resulting in an increase in NET LENGTH, by +11 498 contracts, to 60 499 contracts. The benchmark Comex contract added +0.06% during the week in concern. For silver futures, speculative long positions added +1 822 contracts while shorts plunged -10 069. These resulted in a rise in NET LENGTH, by +11 891 contracts, to 11 256 contracts.  For PGMs, NET LENGTH of Nymex platinum futures dropped -3 635 contracts to 10 991 while that for palladium slid -726 contracts to 14 245.