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EURNZD created a strong negative rally over the last two months, after the pullback on the three-year high of 1.7925. Looking at the very short-term, the price has been moving higher since yesterday finding support on the 14-month low of 1.6330. However, the technical indicators are hovering in the bearish zone. The RSI is sloping marginally up below the neutral threshold of 50, while the MACD is weakening its negative momentum above the trigger line.

Further upside pressure may meet again the significant resistance of 1.6555, before touching the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward movement from 1.4535 to 1.7925, around 1.6630. Even higher, the pair could edge sharply higher, hitting the 1.6790 resistance, identified by the peaks on November 22.

On the flip side, a bounce off the 1.6550 barrier could slip prices towards the 14-month low. Lower still, the bears may aim for the 50.0% Fibonacci of 1.6230, after which prices could plunge until the September 2017 bottom of 1.6140.

Concluding, the overall picture seems to be negative as it holds below the 20- and 40-simple moving averages (SMAs) and the lower low of 1.6330 confirmed that.

After repeated rumors, Italy still haven't submitted the revised Draft Budget Plan to European Commission up till now. It's reported again today that the coalition government will have the budget ready by next Wednesday.

Another rumor comes up on Economy Minister Giovanni Tria's resignation, on budget row with the cabinet. It's reported that Five Star movement has requested Tria to step down, for ceding too much ground to EU. However, it seems that the League wants Tria to stay.

Five-Star leader, Italian Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio denied the rumor today and said "Tria is doing a great job and a winning team must not be changed".

Dow is consolidating within narrow range and low-volume trading on Friday, following sell-off on Thursday, triggered by arrest of Huawei CFO.

The fall found footstep just ticks above previous low at 24246 (23 Nov) ahead of strong rebound, which eased downside pressure.

Thursday's Hammer could be a signal of stronger recovery, but scenario so far lacks further signals which could be generated on lift above a cluster of MA's at 25021/25156 zone (20/200/10/30SMA), also 50% of 26087/24255 bear-leg and keeps the downside vulnerable.

Bearish daily techs add to negative outlook, but potential attempts lower need clear break below lows of short-term range at 24246/24085 to end 1 ½ month long range-trading and signal extension of pullback from new all-time high at 26962 (03 Oct).

Markets await fresh signals from US NFP data today (200K f/c vs 250K prev / AHE 0.3% f/c vs 0.2% prev) which could confirm the strength of US labor sector, that Fed chief Powell highlighted in his speech on Thursday.

Res: 25021, 25156, 25387, 25491
Sup: 24703, 24255, 24246, 24085

German politics is in flux. The Grand Coalition of the CDU, CSU and SPD parties has weakened following regional elections in October that saw CSU leader Horst Seehofer having to step down. Now, Chancellor Angela Merkel's party, the CDU, is turning a new page. Three candidates are running for the job of party leader amid tensions within the country and a revival of populist parties. The center-right bloc can count on less than 30% support among the electorate compared to 41.50% in the 2013 general election as both the Greens and the far-right Alternative for Germany have gained traction.

After more than three decades at the service of her party, Angela Merkel confirmed in October that she would not run for the party leadership again and would end her chancellorship by 2021. The result is today's CDU conference, which takes place at 3 p.m. in Hamburg , where 1,001 delegates will select her replacement. Three candidates are running for the role and the popular preference is for Merkel's preferred nominee, CDU general secretary Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, with businessman Friedrich Merz in second place in the polls. Many delegates are still undecided and the presentations of the candidates before the assembly today will be critical.

We don't expect the outcome to play a key role on the future direction of the party overall, however. Accordingly, as the focus of market participants largely remains on the OPEC meeting and the UK Brexit debate, the vote will not be decisive in the direction of the single currency. Currently trading at 1.1369, EUR/USD is heading along 1.1360 short-term.

Trump's Trade Debacle

Just when you thought that US President Donald Trump could not mismanage trade policy or his administration any further, we get Huawei's chief financial officer being detained at a Canadian airport on a US extradition request. This come on the heels of sensitive US-China relations and a temporary truce in the so-called trade war in the wake of the G20 dinner discussions in Argentina.

As expected, Beijing is furious, demanding Meng Wanzhou's release and declaring the arrest a human right violation. While Trump claims that he had no knowledge of the impending arrest when he met with China's President Xi Jinping, news has broken that John Bolton, his National Security Advisor, was aware of it. Reuters has indicated that the arrest was connected to an alleged scheme to evade US sanctions again Iran using the global banking system, which some claim is controlled by the US.

Inevitably, market reaction was extremely negative (S&P 500 suffering one of the largest single-day drops of the year) and it was saved only by rumors that the Fed might consider slowing the pace of rate hikes. Hopes that a full deal could be reached in 90 days seem like a pipe dream now. It is unlikely that the public disrespect shown by the US will be forgotten quickly. In addition, mixing business with politics is a dangerous business but one that China is well versed in. With the global growth outlook already weak, expectations for a full-blown US-China trade war will only hurt further. The US yield curve is moving from flat to negative on the short end but the trend is towards a full inverted curve indicating a US recession.

OPEC prepared for a further day of talks on oil-production curbs after a summit on Thursday ended with no deal, as Russia resisted the big output cut that Saudi Arabia was demanding. After six-hour meeting in Vienna, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said he wasn't confident of an agreement when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meets its allies on Friday. A proposal for a combined OPEC and non-OPEC cut of 1 million barrels a day was left dangling in uncertainty.

“Not everybody is ready to cut equally,” Al-Falih told reporters in Vienna. “Russia is not ready for a substantial cut.” Another sticking point in the talks was Iran's contribution, a delegate said. The Persian Gulf nation is currently subject to U.S. sanctions and as such won't participate in any curbs, Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said. Other members said it should participate, according to a delegate.

The failure to secure a deal so far is the latest example of how OPEC is under pressure from forces that are re-drawing the global oil map, leaving it increasingly dependent on the support of non-member Russia. In a striking development, the U.S. government revealed that it turned into a net exporter of petroleum for the first time in 75 years last week thanks to the shale boom. The oil market reacted negatively to OPEC's setback, with Brent crude sliding 2.4 percent to $60.06 a barrel in London on Thursday. Prices extended declines on Friday.

Russia, which initially sought a 100,000 to 150,000-barrel-a-day reduction as part of a new deal, may agree to a slightly larger cut depending on OPEC's decision on its own output, a delegate said. Moscow insists its cut should be gradual and reconsidered after the first quarter since the market may shift, the delegate said, asking not to be identified discussing private deliberations.

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.13473
Open: 1.13687
% chg. over the last day: +0.28
Day's range: 1.13604 – 1.13818
52 wk range: 1.1299 – 1.2557

The financial market participants are waiting for the labour market reports in the US for November. EUR/USD is consolidating. The local support and resistance levels are 1.13600 and 1.13850. Positions should be opened from these levels. You should also keep an eye on the US/China trading conflict.

The Economic News Feed for 07.12.2018:

GDP Report (EU) – 12:00 (GMT+2)

Labour Markets Report (US) – 15:30 (GMT+2)

The price fixed above both 50 MA and 200 MA, which indicates the power of the buyers.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone but below the signal line which gives a weak signal towards the purchase of EUR/USD.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates a bullish sentiment.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.13600, 1.13200, 1.13000
Resistance levels: 1.13850, 1.14200

If the price fixes below the support level of 1.13850, it is necessary to consider buying EUR/USD. The movement is tending to 1.14200-1.14500.

An alternative could be the descend of the EUR/USD quotes to the level of 1.13000.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.27321
Open: 1.27748
% chg. over the last day: +0.37
Day's range: 1.27433 – 1.27863
52 wk range: 1.2662 – 1.4378

The GBP keeps trading in the long flat. There is no single trend. The financial market participants are waiting for more data regarding Brexit. Today all the attention will be focused on the reports from the US. The GBP/USD is trading between 1.27400-1.27800. You should open positions from these levels.

The Economic News Field for 07.12.2018 is calm.

Indicator signals are ambiguous. The price has crossed both 50 MA and 200 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, which indicates a weak bearish sentiment.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is фищму the %D line, which points towards the growth of the GBP/USD.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.27400, 1.27000, 1.26750
Resistance levels: 1.27800, 1.28000, 1.28400

If the price fixes below 1.27400, the GBP/USD quotes are expected to fall. The movement is tending to 1.27000-1.26750.

An alternative could be a growth in the GBP/USD currency pair to 1.28250-1.28500.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.33528
Open: 1.33772
% chg. over the last day: +0.28
Day's range: 1.33760 – 1.33985
52 wk range: 1.2248 – 1.3387

The USD/CAD is consolidating after sudden growth. A correction is highly probable soon. The key support and resistance levels are 1.33600 and 1.34000. Positions should be opened from these levels. Investors are waiting for the labour market reports from the US and Canada. You should also keep an eye on the oil quotes dynamics.

At 15:30 (GMT+2:00), Canada will publish the labour market reports.

The price has fixed above 50 MA and 200 MA, which indicates the power of buyers.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line, which indicates a drop in the USD/CAD quotes.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.33600, 1.33200, 1.32900
Resistance levels: 1.34000, 1.34400

If the price fixes above the local resistance of 1.34000, further growth of the USD/CAD quotes is expected. The movement is tending to 1.34400-1.34750.

Alternative option. If the price fixes below 1.33600, we recommend looking for market entry points to open short positions. The movement is tending to 1.33200-1.33000.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 113.183
Open: 112.649
% chg. over the last day: -0.42
Day's range: 112.602 – 112.927
52 wk range: 104.56 – 114.74

The USD/JPY is still showing a variety of trends. The technical picture is ambigous. The labour market report from the US is in the spotlight The local support and resistance levels are 112.600 and 112.900. Positions should be opened from these levels. You should keep an eye on the yield of the US Treasury bonds.

The news feed on the Japanese economy is calm.

Indicators do not provide precise data, the price is testing the 50 MA which is a strong dynamic resistance.

The MACD histogram is close to 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is below the %D line which indicates the decline of the USD/JPY quotes.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 112.600, 112.300
Resistance levels: 112.900, 113.100, 113.250

If the price fixes below the support level of 112.600, it is necessary to consider selling USD/JPY. The movement is tending to 112.000.

An alternative could be the growth of the USD/JPY quotes to 113.250-113.500.

The US 30 index remains on the back foot, having crossed back below its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) in recent sessions. The price structure of lower highs on the daily chart suggests the bias is negative at the moment, but not clearly so, as the SMAs are converging; an indication the longer-term picture is turning more neutral.

Short-term oscillators support the case. The RSI – although below its neutral 50 line – seems to be flattening, while the MACD remains above its red trigger line, albeit in negative territory.

Further declines may meet initial support near the December 6 low of 24,240. A downside break could open the way for the 24,000 handle, which halted the drop in June. Even lower, the May 3 low of 23,500 would attract attention.

On the flipside, advances could stall first around the 200-day SMA at 25,110, and subsequently near the 50-day SMA at 25,400. A bullish break could see scope for a test of the December 3 peak of 26,070, before the November 11 high of 26,280 comes into view.

In brief, the short-term bias looks cautiously negative, but the broader picture is shifting to neutral.

The Canadian dollar continues to lose ground and is lower in Friday trade. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3391, up 0.19% on the day. On the release front, the focus is on employment data in both Canada and the United States. Canadian employment change is expected to dip to 10.5 thousand. In the U.S, the markets are bracing for a weak nonfarm payrolls report of 200 thousand. The week wraps up with UoM consumer confidence. As well, OPEC members are meeting in Vienna. The results of this summit could affect the movement of the Canadian dollar.

Investor risk appetite has swooned this week, sending equity markets sharply lower. This has also pushed the Canadian dollar lower, with USD/CAD close to 1% higher this week. There was some optimism early in the week after President Trump agreed to suspend further tariffs against China for 90 days. However, there are concerns that the two sides will not be able to close the gaps in their positions in just a few weeks. The markets soured on Thursday, after a senior Chinese executive, Meng Wanzhou, was arrested in Vancouver for allegedly violating trade sanctions against Iran. Wanzhou faces extradition to the U.S., and China’s indignant response to the arrest could torpedo upcoming trade talks between the two countries.

U.S employment data was soft on Thursday, raising concerns that the red-hot labor market could be slowing down. The November ADP nonfarm payrolls was expected to drop, but the plunge was much sharper than expected. The indicator fell to 175 thousand, missing the estimate of 195 thousand. If this is a precursor of the official nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, the U.S dollar could retreat against its major rivals. Unemployment claims also disappointed, as the reading of 231 thousand was above the forecast of 226 thousand. There was better news from the services sector, as ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI improved to 60.7, easily beating the estimate of 59.1 points.

The Australian dollar consolidates after strong fall in past four days (down nearly 2%) which was contained by daily cloud top/55SMA (0.7190).

Long tail of Thursday's daily candle signals that bears might be running out of steam and attempts to base.

Improved momentum and oversold slow stochastic supporting scenario, however, mixed daily techs lack clearer signal.

Daily cloud is narrowing and will twist next week that could attract fresh bears, which require break below 55SMA and pivotal Fibo support at 0.7163 (61.8% of 0.7020/0.7393) to confirm bearish continuation.

Strong US jobs data today would add to negative scenario.

Converged 30/100SMA's mark initial resistance at 0.7235, followed by 20SMA (0.7263) and 10SMA (0.7279), with break above the later to ease bearish pressure and signal reversal.

Res: 0.7235, 0.7251, 0.7263, 0.7279
Sup: 0.7207, 0.7190, 0.7163, 0.7139

Notes/Observations

• Important day with OPEC+ meeting, US Payroll data taking center stage
• OPEC meeting yesterday failed to deliver any final deal on production cuts as its waited Russia's contribution
• German CDU party congress to find a replacement for Angela Merkel (vote seen late European afternoon)

Asia:

• BoJ Gov Kuroda stated that would keep closely monitoring overseas economic risks. Reiterated view that saw no need to ease policy further at this time
• BOJ Dep Gov Amamiya reiterated view that prolonged low rates contribute to low bank profitability
• Japan Oct Real Cash Earnings registered its 3rd straight decline (Y/Y: -0.1% v -0.3%e)
• White House, Trudeau sought to distance themselves from recent arrest of Huawei CFO

Europe:

• Italy PM Conte stated that the 2019 budget deficit was not discussed in recent ministers meeting. Italy cabinet to meet on Friday evening, Dec 7th
• Italy PM Conte and 5 Star Party said to be in favor of Finance Minister Tria's resignation but League leader Salvini opposed. Reports later circulated that Fin Min Tria had no intention of resigning
• Splits said to have emerge in the PM May's top team on how to respond in the likely event that her deal was rejected by MPs next week. Advisers to PM May said to urge her to support second referendum but she remains opposed to the idea. Other advisers said to argue for a softer Brexit

Americas:

• White House official: President Trump was unaware of Huawei extradition request before dinner with China President Xi at the G20 summit in Argentina - Fed still expected to raise rates in Dec, but now considering if it should signal a 'wait and see' stance in 2019
• (US) Fed Chair Powell reiterated that economy currently was performing very well overall; US Labor market was very strong by many measures; did not comment on monetary policy
• (US) Fed's Williams (moderate, voter): Needed to be 'nimble' about responding to unexpected economic circumstances; So far US tariffs did not have 'big' effect on overall growth and inflation, direct impact of tariffs so far was relatively 'small', 'full-blown' trade war would be real worry
• (US) Fed's Bostic (dove, voter): Fed policy ought to be taking more neutral position; Fed was within shouting distance of neutral policy

Macro

• (DE) Germany: Industrial production unexpectedly contracted -0.5% m/m in October, with the September number revised down a tick to 0.1%. The main drag came from the production of consumer and energy goods, which both fell for -3.2% m/m and for a second consecutive month. The production sector has very limited spare capacity, which means monthly growth rates are likely to continue to look drab, even if companies continue to sit on a large number of unfilled orders.
• (FR) France: Industrial production was higher than expected at 1.2% m/m in the October reading, while September was revised up to -1.6% m/m from -1.8%. Despite this annual rates remain firmly in negative territory, at -0.7% y/y for overall production and -1.3% y/y for manufacturing. Bigger picture, the French industry has been contracting since the adoption of the euro. It was not able to recover after either of the 2001 or 2008 crises because the euro, a currency stronger than the French franc would be, has become a burden to France's economy.
• (US) United States: According to the Fed's Z.1 report household net worth increased at an 8.0% rate in Q3 to a fresh record-high of $109.0T . Net worth in Q3 was 98.4% above the $55.0 T trough in Q1'09. Asset value growth in Q3 included a 3.5% growth rate in real estate, and 9.0% for financial asset values. Total liabilities are still just 17.1% above the $13.6 T cycle-low in Q1'12 that marked a significant -7.0% drop from the $14.6T cycle-high in Q3'08 that is yet to have been exceeded.

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 +1.4% at 348.1, FTSE +1.5% at 6802, DAX +0.9% at 10907, CAC-40 +1.4% at 4847, IBEX-35 +1.3% at 8826, FTSE MIB +1.1% at 18850, SMI +1.9% at 8826, S&P 500 Futures -0.3%]
• Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European Indices are rebounding from the sharp declines yesterday after US indices faded the earlier losses after the European close yesterday. Asian markets were mixed as fallout over the arrest of Huawei CFO continues to weigh. On the corporate front, investing platform provider AJ Bell soared 30% following its IPO; Berkeley Group trades higher after earnings and raised outlook; ABF falls after reporting a difficult November for Primark while affirming their outlook, Amer Sports trades higher after Anta Sports confirmed offer to acquire company for €40/shr. In other news Fresenius SE trades sharply lower after cutting its 2020 outlook; CFD names trade higher after noting they will see minimal impact following the FCA proposed measures on CFDs and Binary Options. Looking ahead notable earners include Big Lots, Johnson Outdoors and Vail Resorts.

Equities

• Consumer discretionary: Amer Sports [AMEAS.FI] +8% (confirms to be acquired), Associated British Foods Plc [ABF.UK] -2.5% (trading update; exec comments), Tesco [TSCO.UK] +5% (analyst action)
• Consumer staples: Carl Zeiss Meditec [AFX.DE] +1% (earnings, initial FY19 guidance)
• Financials: Berkeley Group Holdings [BKG.UK] +3% (earnings), HSBC [HSBA.UK] +1% (said to not be target of Huawei investigation), Danske Bank [DANSKE.DK] +2.5% (in talks to sell unit), IG Group [IGG.UK] +2.5% (response to FCA)
• Healthcare: AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] +1% (study update), Fresenius SE & Co [FRE.DE] -12% (CEO comments), Fresenius Medical [FME.DE] -7% (CEO comments)
• Industrials: Volvo AB [VOLVO.SE] +1% (unit's CEO comments), Vinci [DG.FR] +2.5% (awarded contract), Robit [ROBIT.FI] -1% (CEO to step down)
• Technology: Basware [BAS1V.FI] +9.5% (confirms in talks on takeover offer)

Speakers

• Italy Dep PM Di Maio stated that saw no need to cut reform in budget and Italy would l avoid disciplinary procedure
• Italy Stats Agency (Istat) Monthly Economic Note: Leading indicator was stable after falling in previous months
• Brexit campaigners said to quietly preparing for second referendum
• OPEC delegate: Russia might agree to slightly larger oil production cut from 150K bpd
• Saudi Oil Min Al-Falih stated that he was no confident of a production cut deal being reached today - Nigeria Oil Min Kachikwu: An OPEC+ production cut seen close to 1M bpd was most likely scenario
• Russia Energy Minister Novak said to meet Saudi and Iranian oil ministers ahead of main OPEC+ meeting in Vienna. Russia said to want to cut oil output by a maximum of 150K bpd for first 3 months of 2019, output could then be reviewed (**Reminder: On Dec 6th Russia Energy Min Novak stated that it was difficult for Russia to cut oil production at a fast pace during the winter period)
• Russia said to be ready to cut output by 200K bpd if OPEC offered to cut more than 1M bpd

Currencies/Fixed Income

• USD was little changed against most major pairs with key focus on the upcoming November non-farm payrolls data.
• EUR/USD was seen likely to remain in its recent narrow trading range of 1.13-1.14. The greenback recovered a bit after falling Thursday in the aftermath of softer-than-expected ADP employment data.
• GBP/USD was lower by 0.3% around 1.2750 on contijued Brexit jitters. Reports have circulated that PM May could delay a vote in parliament on the U.K.-EU Brexit agreement, which is scheduled for Tuesday and is expected to be rejected

Economic Data

• (ZA) South Africa Nov Gross Reserves: $50.7B v $50.4Be; Net Reserves: $42.6B v $42.3Be
• (DE) Germany Oct Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 2.1%e
• (DE) Germany Q3 Labor Costs Q/Q: 1.0% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.1% prior
• (DK) Denmark Oct Industrial Production M/M: +1.0% v -0.4% prior
• (NO) Norway Oct Industrial Production M/M: +2.3% v -2.0% prior; Y/Y: 4.5% v 0.7% prior
• (NO) Norway Oct Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.5% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 1.5% prior
• (FI) Finland Oct Preliminary Trade Balance: -€0.2B v -€0.1B prior
• (RO) Romania Q3 Preliminary GDP (2nd reading) Q/Q: 1.9% v 1.9%e; Y/Y: % v 4.3%e
• (MY) Malaysia end-Nov Foreign Reserves: $102.0B v $102/1B prior
• (CN) Weekly Shanghai copper inventories (SHFE): No est v 131.0K prior
• (FR) France Oct Trade Balance: -€4.1B v -€5.8Be
• (FR) France Oct Current Account Balance: -€0.7B v -€1.9B prior
• (FR) France Oct Industrial Production M/M: 1.2% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: -0.7% v -1.4%e
• (FR) France Oct Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.4% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v -1.5%e
• (CH) Swiss Nov Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 748.8B v 750.0Be
• (ES) Spain Q3 INE House Price Index Q/Q: 2.2% v 2.6% prior; Y/Y: 7.2%v 6.8% prior
• (AT) Austria Nov Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.2% v +1.0% prior; Y/Y: 4.4% v 5.4% prior
• (CZ) Czech Oct National Trade Balance (CZK): 5.7B v 9.0Be
• (CZ) Czech Oct Industrial Output Y/Y: 6.7% v 5.4%e; Construction Output Y/Y: 10.4% v 11.8% prior
• (HU) Hungary Oct Preliminary Trade Balance: €0.3B v €0.4Be
• (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Nov 30th: 10.12T v 10.23T prior
• (TW) Taiwan Nov Trade Balance: $4.7B v $3.8Be; Exports Y/Y: -3.4% v +1.3%e; Imports Y/Y: 1.1% v 12.0%e
• (UK) Nov Halifax House Prices M/M: -1.4% v +0.2%e; 3M/Y: 0.3% v 1.0%e
• (SE) Sweden Nov Budget Balance (SEK): 15.6B v 3.1B prior
• (CN) China Nov Foreign Reserves: $3.062T v $3.044Te
• (IS) Iceland Q3 GDP Q/Q: % v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: % v 6.7% prior
• (IT) Italy Oct Retail Sales M/M: +0.1% v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.8%e
• (SG) Singapore Nov Foreign Reserves: $289.5B v $290.3B prior
• (CZ) Czech Nov International Reserves: $141.4B v $140.7B prior
• (UK) Nov BoE/TNS Inflation Quarterly Survey Next 12-month: 3.2% v 3.0% prior (5-year high)
• (EU) Euro Zone Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.7%e
• (EU) Euro Zone Q3 Household Consumption Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Govt Expenditures Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Gross Fixed Capital Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.6%e
• (BR) Brazil Nov FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: -1.1% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 8.4% v 9.0%e
• (CY) Cyprus Q3 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.8% v 0.7% prelim; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.6% prelim

Fixed Income Issuance

• (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 2027, 2028, 2034 and 2055 bonds
• (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR650M vs. ZAR650M indicated in I/L 2025, 2038 and 2050 bonds

Looking Ahead

• (IT) Bank of Italy Report on Balance-Sheet Aggregates
• 06:00 (BR) Brazil Nov IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: -0.1%e v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 4.2%e v 4.6% prior
• 06:00 (CL) Chile Nov CPI M/M: 0.0%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.9%e v 2.9% prior
• 06:00 (CL) Chile Nov CPI (ex-food/energy) M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.1% prior
• 06:00 OPEC and Non-Opec meeting in Vienna
• 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell €4.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£1.0B, £1.5B and £2.0B respectively)
• 06:30 (CL) Chile Nov Trade Balance: $0.6Be v -$0.2B prior; Total Exports: $6.3Be v $6.6B prior; Total Imports: $5.6Be v $6.8B prior; Copper Exports: No est v $3.2B prior
• 06:30 (CL) Chile Nov International Reserves: No est v $37.4B prior
• 06:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves w/e Nov 30th: No est v $ $392.8B prior
• 06:30 (IS) Iceland to sell 1.5% Feb 2026 RIKB Bonds
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
• 07:00 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed)
• 08:00 (RU) Russia Nov Official Reserve Assets: $460.0Be v $459.6B prior
• 08:00 (PL) Poland Nov Official Reserves: No est v $111.4B prior
• 08:10 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
• 08:30 (US) Nov Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +198Ke v +250K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: 200Ke v +246K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +18Ke v +32K prior
• 08:30 (US) Nov Unemployment Rate3.7%e v 3.7% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 7.4% prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.9%e v 62.9% prior
• 08:30 (US) Nov Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.1%e v 3.1% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.5e v 34.5 prior
• 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Net Change in Employment: +10.0Ke v +11.2K prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.8%e v 5.8% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v +33.9K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v -22.6K prior; Participation Rate: No est v 65.2% prior; Hourly Earnings Y/Y: No est v 1.9% prior
• 09:00 (MX) Mexico Nov CPI M/M: 0.7%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 4.6%e v 4.9% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior
• 09:30 (TR) Turkey Nov Cash Budget Balance (TRY): No est v -5.4B prior
• 10:00 (US) Dec Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 97.0e v 97.5 prior
• 10:00 (US) Oct Final Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.7%e v 0.7% prelim; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: No est v 0.9% prelim
• 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
• 11:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close (S&P on Estonia, Iceland Sovereign Debt; Moody's on Italy, Iraq sovereign d; Fitch on Iceland Sovereign Debt
• 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig count data
• 14:00 (IT) Italy cabinet meets on 2019 budget
• 15:00 (US) Oct Consumer Credit: $15.0Be v $10.9B prior
• 20:30 (CN) China Nov CPI Y/Y: 2.4%e v 2.5% prior; PPI Y/Y: 2.7%e v 3.3% prior