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GBP/USD Outlook: US Jobs Data Expected To Provide Fresh Signals Ahead Of Historical Events Next Week
Cable stands at the back foot in early Friday's trading and eases back to 1.2750 zone, following bullish close on Thursday which generated initial positive signals after the action on Tue/Wed ended in long-legged Dojis.
Thursday's spike above 1.28 handle was again capped by falling 20SMA and marginal close above Fibo barrier at 1.2764 (61.8% of 1.2849/1.2658) was so far insufficient to produce stronger thrust for further recovery.
Weakening momentum on daily chart and MA's in negative setup maintain negative tone for renewed attack at 1.2661 (2018 low) cracked on Tuesday's spike to 1.2658.
Initial support lays at 1.2731 (broken Fibo 38.2% of 1.2849/1.2658), guarding Thursday's low at 1.2699, loss of which would open way towards key 1.2661/58 levels.
Sustained break below 1.2661/58 triggers will be very bearish.
Bullish scenario sees close above 1.2800 barrier as minimum requirement to signal recovery, with lift above 1.2850 needed to confirm.
US jobs report is expected to provide fresh signals, but focus turns towards the final event of the historical week – UK parliament's vote on Brexit plan, which would provide key direction signals.
Res: 1.2796, 1.2810, 1.2839, 1.2850
Sup: 1.2731, 1.2699, 1.2671, 1.2658
EUR/USD Outlook: Initial Bullish Signal On Probe Above Triangle’s Uupper Boundary But US Jobs Data Would Be A Key...
The Euro holds slightly positive tone in early Friday's trading and moved above trendline resistance (bear-trendline drawn off 1.1815 high, currently at 1.1364).
Bullish close on Thursday after triple-Doji and close above 30SMA (1.1359) were positive signals, although long shadows of Thursday's daily candle warn that the pair still lacks strength for stronger and sustainable action.
Repeated failure to close above Fibo barrier at 1.1393 (61.8% of 1.1472/1.1267) despite spikes to 1.1418/12 (Tue/Thu) could be limiting factor, along with strengthening bearish momentum on daily chart.
Weekly close above triangle's upper boundary would provide initial bullish signal, which needs confirmation on close above 1.1393 Fibo barrier. This would open way towards 1.1423/40 (Fibo 76.4% / 55SMA) and generate fresh bullish signal on break. Initial negative signal could be expected on break below converged 10/20 SMA's (1.1347) and higher base (1.1320) that would unmask triangle support line (1.1302). German Industrial Production fell well below expectations in Oct (-0.5% vs 0.3% f/c), with EU GDP (Q3 y/y 1.7% f/c vs 1.7% prev / q/q 0.2% f/c vs 0.2% prev) being the highlight of the European session.
Top event today is release of US labor data. US Non-Farm Payrolls are forecasted to rise by 200K in Nov vs 250K previous month, while Average Hourly Earnings are expected to tick higher (Nov 0.3% f/c vs Oct 0.2%). Releases at/above forecasts would confirm strength of US labor market and boost dollar, fueling hopes for Fed rate hike in December, as markets reduced bets on rate hikes in 2019, on signals of global growth slowdown and potential escalation of US/China trade conflict.
Res: 1.1357, 1.1368, 1.1400, 1.1418
Sup: 1.1311, 1.1301, 1.1267, 1.1215
USD/TRY Under Pressure
Pivot (invalidation): 5.3660
Our preference Short positions below 5.3660 with targets at 5.3050 & 5.2700 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 5.3660 look for further upside with 5.4000 & 5.4570 as targets.
Comment As Long as the resistance at 5.3660 is not surpassed, the risk of the break below 5.3050 remains high.
AUD/USD Rebound
Pivot (invalidation): 0.7215
Our preference Long positions above 0.7215 with targets at 0.7255 & 0.7275 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 0.7215 look for further downside with 0.7190 & 0.7160 as targets.
Comment The RSI calls for a bounce.
USD/CAD The Downside Prevails
Pivot (invalidation): 1.3400
Our preference Short positions below 1.3400 with targets at 1.3365 & 1.3350 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 1.3400 look for further upside with 1.3420 & 1.3445 as targets.
Comment The RSI calls for a drop.
USD/CHF Watch 0.9890
Pivot (invalidation): 0.9940
Our preference Short positions below 0.9940 with targets at 0.9905 & 0.9890 in extension.
Alternative scenario Above 0.9940 look for further upside with 0.9955 & 0.9970 as targets.
Comment A break below 0.9905 would trigger a drop towards 0.9890.
USD/JPY Turning Up
Pivot (invalidation): 112.60
Our preference Long positions above 112.60 with targets at 113.05 & 113.25 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 112.60 look for further downside with 112.40 & 112.20 as targets.
Comment The RSI calls for a new upleg.
GBP/USD Caution
Pivot (invalidation): 1.2755
Our preference Long positions above 1.2755 with targets at 1.2810 & 1.2840 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 1.2755 look for further downside with 1.2730 & 1.2700 as targets.
Comment Intraday technical indicators are mixed and call for caution.
EUR/USD The Upside Prevails
Pivot (invalidation): 1.1355
Our preference Long positions above 1.1355 with targets at 1.1395 & 1.1415 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 1.1355 look for further downside with 1.1335 & 1.1320 as targets.
Comment A support base at 1.1355 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
S&P 500 Further Advance
Pivot (invalidation): 2648.00
Our preference Long positions above 2648.00 with targets at 2731.00 & 2760.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario Below 2648.00 look for further downside with 2621.00 & 2602.00 as targets.
Comment The RSI is bullish and calls for further upside
