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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1264; (P) 1.1304; (R1) 1.1332; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for 1.1215 support. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend for 1.1186 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.1383 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 1.1499 resistance. Firm break there will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 1.1814 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 medium term top has just resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 resistance is now needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2703; (P) 1.2765; (R1) 1.2803; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside and fall from 1.3174 is likely resumption. Break of 1.2723 support will bring retest of 1.2661 key support level next. On the upside, above 1.2927 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for another rebound. But after all, price actions from 1.2661 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. Even in case of strong rebound, upside should be limited by 1.3316 fibonacci level to bring down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it's resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold declined 0.63% against the USD and closed at USD1220.80 per ounce, amid strength in the US dollar.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1220.50, with gold trading a tad lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1214.97, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1209.43. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1228.87, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1237.23.

The yellow metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 0.63% against the USD and closed at USD14.26 per ounce, tracking losses in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 14.25, with silver trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 14.16, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.06. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 14.38, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 14.50.

The white metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9973; (P) 0.9988; (R1) 1.0002; More...

At this point, intraday bias remains neutral in USD/CHF. On the upside, break of 1.0006 minor resistance will argue that the pull back from 1.0128 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.1028. However, on the downside, break of 38.2% retracement of 0.9541 to 1.0128 at 0.9904 will target 0.9848 key support level.

In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading. However, break of 0.9848 near term support will dampen this view and bring deeper decline back to 0.9541 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.51; (P) 113.67; (R1) 113.94; More..

USD/JPY's rise from 112.30 is in progress and reaches as high as 113.90 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 114.20/73 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 104.62. On the downside, below 113.41 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Overall, price actions from 114.54 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, even in case of another decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 0.81% against the USD and closed at USD52.01 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil inventories rose 3.5 million barrels to 442.7 million barrels in the week ended 23 November.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 51.99, with oil trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 50.73, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 49.48. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 52.81, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 53.64.

Going ahead, investors will keep a close watch on the weekly crude inventories data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), due later in the day.

Crude oil is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7194; (P) 0.7231; (R1) 0.7264; More...

No change in AUD/USD's outlook as it's bounded in range of 0.7164/7325. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, sustained break of 0.7314 resistance will indicate medium term reversal. Further rally should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 next. Nevertheless, failure to sustain above 0.7314, and break of 0.7164 support will retain bearishness and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.7020 low.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD's decline from 0.8135 could have completed at 0.7020 already, ahead of 0.6826 key support (2016 low). Decisive break of 0.7314 will confirm and bring strong rebound. But for now, we'd expect strong resistance from 0.7500 support turned resistance to limit upside. Medium term fall from 0.8135 should extend to take on 0.6826 low at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3246; (P) 1.3288; (R1) 1.3340; More...

USD/CAD's break of 1.3318 suggests that rise from 1.2781 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.3385 key resistance. As upside momentum is rather unconvincing for now, we'd be cautious on topping around 1.3385 to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.3187 support will argue that rise from 1.2781 has completed. And intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.3123) first. Nevertheless, strong break of 1.3385 will confirm medium term up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2781 already. And whole up trend from 1.2061 (2016 low) is ready to resume. Break of 1.3385 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2781 support holds.

Dollar turned mixed after yesterday rally attempt met with no follow through commitments from bulls. Trump reiterated his attack on Fed and on Jay Powell personally. Comments from Fed officials were mixed. But the greenback paid little attention overall. Australian and New Zealand Dollar are again the strongest ones today but upside is very limited. Both are indeed limited below last week's high against peers. Meanwhile, Yen, Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar are the weaker ones today.

Technical, among the major pairs and crosses, USD/JPY is the one making clear progress as it's on track for a test on 114.20/73 resistance zone, with solid momentum. USD/CAD's break of 1.3318 suggest rise resumption for 1.3385 resistance. Otherwise, there's a lot of hesitations, most notably in USD/CHF ahead of parity.

In other markets, US equities closed broadly higher today, with DOW gained 0.44% to 24748.73. S&P 500 rose 0.33% but NASDAQ just added 0.01%. Treasury yield were slightly lower with 10 year yield down -0.017 at 3.055, as recent consolidations extend. Asian markets recover generally today. At the time of writing, Nikkei is up 1.00%, Hong Kong HSI up 0.91%, China Shanghai SSE up 0.79% and Singapore Strait Times up 0.23%.

Trump: Fed is a much bigger problem than China

Trump expressed his dissatisfaction on Fed Chair Jerome "Jay" Powell again yesterday. He told the Washington post that "So far, I'm not even a little bit happy with my selection of Jay. Not even a little bit." He went further and said "Fed is a much bigger problem than China".

He added "and I'm not blaming anybody, but I'm just telling you I think that the Fed is way off-base with what they're doing." He pointed to China and Euro being "accommodative". But "we're not getting any accommodation".

Trump complained again that "I'm doing deals, and I'm not being accommodated by the Fed." And, "they're making a mistake because I have a gut, and my gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else's brain can ever tell me."

Fed Clarida: US expansion could become longest in in history in 2019

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said in a speech that the US economic fundamentals are "robust". And if the economic expansion continues in 2019 as he expected, "this will become the longest US expansion in recorded history".

And, at this stage of the interest rate cycle, it will be "especially important to monitor a wide range of data" for the path of Fed's policy interest rates. "Data dependence" should play in two distinct roles of "formulation and commination" of monetary policy.

He also noted that "as the economy has moved to a neighborhood consistent with the Fed's dual-mandate objectives, risks have become more symmetric and less skewed to the downside".

Fed Bullard: No doubt the US economy will slow in 2019 and 2020

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said "I don't have any reason to doubt the economy will slow in 2019 and 2020. It would be much tougher for the Fed to continue to raise at this pace in a slowing economy relative to where we have been."

He also warned that "the good news won't last forever, and if potential growth really is at 1.8 percent the economy is going to return to some level more like that." He added, "the question in my mind is what are we trying to control? We have already been preemptive…We took all this action and it has put us in good shape."

And, "if we had not had these surprises to the upside my story would have looked better in retrospect than it does," Bullard said. "As a baseline most forecasts have the economy slowing down…That is the basic structure we are working with going into 2019."

White House Kudlow: Xi has an opportunity to change the tone and the substance of trade talks

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the dinner meeting between Trump and Xi at G20 this week could "turn the page" on a US-China trade war. But so far, he complained that China's "responses have disappointed because ... we can't find much change in their approach". He urged that "President Xi has an opportunity to change the tone and the substance of these talks". And "Trump has indicated he is open - now we need to know if President Xi is open."

Kudlow also said that in Trump's view "there is a good possibility that a deal can be made, and that he is open to that." But he also emphasized "certain conditions have to be met". Some issues including intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer, ownership of American companies in China, high tariffs and non-tariff barriers on commodities, and commercial hacking, must be solved.

However, if there is no progress, Kudlow said Trump is prepared to raise tariffs on $200 billion of imports to 25 percent from current levels of 10 percent on January 1. In addition, Trump could add tariffs on another $267 billion of imports. Kudlow said regarding Trump's stance on this that "as we've all learned, he means what he says".

China ambassador to US: Using treasuries as weapon could backfire

Chinese ambassador to the US, Cui Tiankai, said that no one in Beijing is thinking seriously about using US treasuries as a weapon in trade war. HE said that it could "backfire". Cui emphasized that "We don't want to cause any financial instability in global markets. This is very dangerous, this is like playing with fire".

Cui repeated the usual Chinese rhetoric that "we are against any trade war", but China would "fight to safeguard our own interests." And he also criticized so far "I have not seen sufficient response from the U.S. side to our concerns." He emphasized "we cannot accept that one side would put forward a number of demands and the other side just has to satisfy all these things."

UK PM May to tell Scotland: Brexit deal protects jobs

UK Prime Minister Theresa May will continue her nationwide Brexit deal sales tour today and Scotland is the next destination. May is expected to say "it is a deal that is good for Scottish employers and which will protect jobs." And, the agreement would create a new free trade area of "unprecedented economic relationship that no other major economy has."

May would also add that "at the same time, we will be free to strike our own trade deals around the world – providing even greater opportunity to Scottish exporters."

On the data front

UK BRC shop price rose 0.1% yoy in November. Australia construction work done dropped -2.8% in Q3. Eurozone will release M3 money supply and German Gfk consumer sentiment. Later in the day, US will release trade balance, wholesale inventories, new hole sales and Q3 GDP revision.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3246; (P) 1.3288; (R1) 1.3340; More...

USD/CAD's break of 1.3318 suggests that rise from 1.2781 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.3385 key resistance. As upside momentum is rather unconvincing for now, we'd be cautious on topping around 1.3385 to bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 1.3187 support will argue that rise from 1.2781 has completed. And intraday bias would be turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.3123) first. Nevertheless, strong break of 1.3385 will confirm medium term up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development revives the case that corrective fall from 1.3385 has completed at 1.2781 already. And whole up trend from 1.2061 (2016 low) is ready to resume. Break of 1.3385 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 (2016 high) to 1.2061 at 1.3685. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2781 support holds.

Economic Indicators Update