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The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged in the Tuesday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3244, down 0.06% on the day. In economic news, there are no Canadian events. The U.S. releases CB Consumer Confidence, which is forecast to dip to 136.2 points. On Wednesday, the U.S. publishes Preliminary GDP for the third quarter, with a forecast of 3.6%.

With a dearth of Canadian indicators this week, investors will be keeping a close eye on the G-20 summit in Argentina, which begins on Friday. President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and the stakes could not be higher, given the full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Will we see a thaw in the tariff spat, or will Trump and Xi take shots at each other’s policies? Last week, White House advisor Larry Kudlow warned that the summit could be the scene of a direct confrontation between the parties. However, President Trump has a knack of reaching agreements with his adversaries despite hostile rhetoric, so it’s entirely possible that the parties will agree to keep negotiating, which could lift the mood of investors and boost the equity markets.

The spanking new USMCA trade pact was supposed to herald stability for the Canadian auto sector, but the news was grim on Monday, as auto giant GM announced sweeping cutbacks, including the closing of the GM plant in Oshawa, Ontario. This drastic move will throw some 3,000 of workers out of work and has shaken the auto industry, a critical component of the Canadian economy. If the U.S-China trade war continues, Canadian exports could take a hit and the Canadian dollar could face further headwinds.

China's Vice Premier Liu He said in a conference in Hamburg that "protectionist and unilateral approaches do not offer solutions to problems on trade". And, "on the contrary, they will only bring about more economic uncertainty to the world". He added that "The history of economic development has proven time and again that raising tariffs will only lead to economic recession and no one ever emerged as a winner from a trade war. Our approach therefore is to seek a negotiated solution to the problems we have on the basis of equality and mutual respect."

At the same event, European Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager urged China to join efforts in reforming the WTO. She said "We need to do more, we need to make it happen, the reform of the WTO". And, "Not just by discussing the easier issues, but making real progress on bringing rules up to date so global trade is fair as well as free."

European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom urged the US to join WTO reforms today. She pointed to the joint proposals with 11 other countries on reform of the appellate body released yesterday. And she told the US, "Lots of countries in the world are backing this. So please come, sit down and talk to us. That they haven't done so far. Will that happen? Who knows."

Also, Malmstrom emphasized "If we don't reform this in the WTO - and we do not expect China to just sign on the dotted line here and agree, but to engage - there will be others setting a level playing field outside the WTO and I'm not sure that is beneficial for China or the rest of the world."

On Trump-Xi meeting later this week, she said "It would be good for the whole world if they de-escalated a little bit". And, "Then somehow it will have to be, possibly not in Buenos Aires but at some time, they will have to negotiate some way forward and we might not like those results, but I can't speculate on that."

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said in a speech that the US economic fundamentals are "robust". And if the economic expansion continues in 2019 as he expected, "this will become the longest US expansion in recorded history".

And, at this stage of the interest rate cycle, it will be "especially important to monitor a wide range of data" for the path of Fed's policy interest rates. "Data dependence" should play in two distinct roles of "formulation and commination" of monetary policy.

He also noted that "as the economy has moved to a neighborhood consistent with the Fed's dual-mandate objectives, risks have become more symmetric and less skewed to the downside".

His full speech here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.10; (P) 113.38; (R1) 113.87; More..

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 114.20/73 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 104.62. On the downside, below 113.16 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Overall, price actions from 114.54 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, even in case of another decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9963; (P) 0.9978; (R1) 1.0003; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.0006 minor resistance will argue that the pull back from 1.0128 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.1028. However, on the downside, break of 38.2% retracement of 0.9541 to 1.0128 at 0.9904 will target 0.9848 key support level.

In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading. However, break of 0.9848 near term support will dampen this view and bring deeper decline back to 0.9541 support and possibly below.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1307; (P) 1.1345; (R1) 1.1367; More.....

No change in EUR/USD's outlook. Intraday bias remains on the downside 1.1215 support. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend for 1.1186 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.1383 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for 1.1499 resistance. Firm break there will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 1.1814 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.2555 medium term top has just resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 resistance is now needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of strong rebound.

EURGBP is moving higher, gaining some ground after the pair found a strong support obstacle near the 0.8655 barrier. Neutral to positive risks remain in the background as the RSI increases momentum to the upside in the positive region, while the %K line of the stochastic oscillator turned higher and is ready to create a bullish cross with the %D line in the oversold zone.

An advance in the price may retest the 0.8930 resistance level, identified by the recent highs of the previous week. A break higher would turn focus to 0.8995, registered on September 21, which tried to halt upside movements several times in the past. Above that, investors would be interested to see whether bullish dynamics can overcome the previous peak and meet the one-year high of 0.9100.

On the other side, a decline in the price may retest the 20- and 40-simple moving averages (SMAs), which hold near the 0.8800 handle. Further down, the next stop could be at the 0.8770 support, taken from the inside swing on November 12, where any violation would resume the downleg from 0.9100 towards the 0.8655 support.

To conclude, both the short- and medium-term outlooks are looking neutral at the moment.

The battered Pound was attacked from all angles by investors on Tuesday after President Donald Trump criticized Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

According to Trump, the current agreement “sounds like a great deal for the EU” but indicated it could obstruct future plans for a UK-US trade deal. These negative remarks are likely to complicate Theresa May’s already incredibly difficult mission of selling her Brexit deal to the British Parliament. With uncertainty over Brexit still a recurrent market theme and political drama at home weighing on sentiment, the near-term outlook for the Pound points to further downside.

Looking at the technical picture, the vulnerable Pound stood little chance against the Dollar today with prices tumbling towards 1.2740. With the Dollar back on the throne, the GBPUSD has the potential to trade towards 1.2760 in the near term.

Dollar finds an unexpected friend in Trump

Donald Trump’s renewed tariff threats against China have magnetized investors to the US Dollar. The currency clearly remains as the go-to destination in times of market uncertainty, and this has been displayed on repeated occasions. With expectations over a rate hike in December stimulating buying sentiment towards the Dollar, the outlook remains bullish in the short to medium term. Regarding the technical picture, a breakout above 97.00 could open a path higher towards 97.25 and 97.43.

Is the G20 Summit really a big deal?

President Trump and his Chinese counterpart President Xi will be meeting at the G20 summit in Argentina later this week to discuss trade.

With Trump’s escalating trade dispute with China a major theme this year, investors should prepare for potential fireworks. Markets will be keeping a very close eye to see whether both sides are able to find some middle ground. While a breakthrough deal seems highly unlikely following Trump’s recent threats, any display of friendship and interest for further discussions will be welcomed by the financial markets. However, if talks descend into arguments with trade relations between the two nations deteriorating further, risk aversion may reign as fears mount over a full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies becoming reality.

Is this the end of the road for Bitcoin?

It is quite thought-provoking how this time last year Bitcoin was proudly marching towards the $10,000 level.

Fast forward 12 months, the cryptocurrency is gasping for air with prices sinking deeper and deeper into the abyss. A combination of factors have contributed to Bitcoin’s demise, ranging from regulatory scrutiny, infighting within the crypto community and a noticeable drop in investor appetite. With Bitcoin finding comfort below the $4,000 level and showing little sign of recovery, the next key level of interest may be found at $3,000.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2782; (P) 1.2823; (R1) 1.2849; More...

GBP/USD's break of 1.2764 minor support suggests the choppy fall from 1.3174 is resuming. Intraday is back on the downside for 1.2723 first. Break would bring retest of 1.2661 key support level next. On the upside, above 1.2927 will turn bias back to the upside for another rebound. But after all, price actions from 1.2661 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. Even in case of strong rebound, upside should be limited by 1.3316 fibonacci level to bring down trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it's resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.