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Oil (CL_F) short-term Elliott wave analysis suggests that the decline from Oct 3rd high is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse structure. In an impulse structure, the internals of wave 1, 3, and 5 also subdivide in another 5 waves of lesser degree. With Oil, we propose Minor wave 3 ended at $62.52 , Minor wave 4 ended at $64.12, and Minor wave 5 is still in progress as 5 waves of lesser degree.

Looking at the internal of Minor wave 3, a clear 5 waves subdivision can be observed. Minute wave ((i)) ended at $70.51, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at $72.70, Minute wave ((iii)) ended at $65.74, Minute wave ((iv)) ended at $67.95 and Minute wave ((v)) ended at $62.52. After a relatively shallow bounce to $64.12, Oil has extended lower again which we think is the last Minor wave 5 from Oct 3rd high.

Near term, while bounces stay below $64.12, Oil still can extend a bit lower towards $59.4 – $60.3 area before ending Minor wave 5. Once Minor wave 5 completes, expect Oil to at least rally in 3 waves to correct the decline from Oct 3rd peak.

Oil 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Market movers today

The US midterm election results are in and as expected, we got a divided US Congress. We think the outcome will only have limited implications for the economy and markets, see US mid-term elections - Divided Congress means no changes to economic policy , 7 November.

In Sweden , we get Prospera inflation expectations at 08:00 CET and budget figures at 09:30 CET. In Norway, we get manufacturing production in September at 08:00 CET. For more see page 2.

EIA is set to publish its weekly US inventory report today. The market will be positioned for a rise in stocks after the weekly report from API showed a rise of 7.8mb in crude stocks last week.

Selected market news

The US mid-term elections are now over and the result was more or less as expected with a divided Congress with the Democrats controlling the House of Representatives and the Republicans retaining control of the Senate. With a divided Congress, we should not expect changes to economic policy and hence we maintain our view that the implications for the economy and markets should be limited. US expansion is set to continue. Trump has criticised the Fed but it is likely to continue its hiking cycle by hiking once more this year and three times next year. Democrats likely to start impeachment process but Trump is unlikely to be convicted. We expect Trump to remain hawkish on foreign policy. Positive signs in US-China trade war lately with a 60% probability of a ceasefire.

The American Petroleum Institute reported yesterday that US crude stocks rose 7.8mb last week. It further helps to ease supply concerns in the oil market following the implementation of sanctions on Iran this week. Oil prices dropped yesterday, with the price on Brent crude falling to USD72/bbl.

UK Prime Minister Theresa May is said to be preparing a Brexit deal draft proposal to be sent for approval in the Cabinet within days, which signals that the UK is readying its final proposal for a Brexit deal.

Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) governor Yi Gang said that monetary policy in China, judged by growth rate of M2 money supply, is neutral.

Bank of Japan's (BoJ) board member Yukitoshi Funo said overnight that BoJ is not about to reduce its monetary easing since inflation is still distant from the central bank's 2 % target.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.09% against the USD and closed at 1.1421.

In the economic news, the Euro-zone's final services PMI slid to a level of 53.7 in October, less than market expectations for a fall to a level of 53.3. In the previous month, the PMI had registered a level of 54.7, while preliminary figures had indicated a fall to a level of 53.3. On the other hand, the region's producer price index (PPI) advanced 4.5% on a yearly basis in September, for the fifth consecutive month and compared to a revised gain of 4.3% in the prior month. Market participants had envisaged the PPI to rise to 4.3%.

Separately, in Germany, the final services PMI dropped to a level of 54.7 in October, compared to market expectations for a fall to a level of 53.6. The preliminary figures had also recorded a decline to a level of 53.6. In the previous month, the PMI had registered a level of 55.9. On the contrary, the nation's seasonally adjusted factory orders unexpectedly advanced 0.3% on a monthly basis in September, defying market expectations to record a fall of 0.5%. In the preceding month, factory orders had registered a rise of 2.0%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.1469, with the EUR trading 0.42% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1416, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1364. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1497, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1526.

Moving ahead, traders would keep an eye on the Euro-zone's retail sales for September along with Germany's industrial production for September and construction PMI for October, slated to release in a few hours. Later in the day, the US MBA mortgage applications followed by consumer credit data for September, will garner significant amount of investors' attention

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.29% against the USD and closed at 1.3098.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3141, with the GBP trading 0.33% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3060, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2980. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3182, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3224.

Trading trend in the Sterling today is expected to be determined by UK’s Halifax house price index for October, set to release in a while.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.20% against the JPY and closed at 113.45.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 113.21, with the USD trading 0.21% lower against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

Earlier today, data showed that Japan’s preliminary leading economic index fell to a level of 103.9 in September. The index had registered a level of 104.5 in the previous month. Moreover, the nation’s flash coincident index eased to a level of 114.6 in September, compared to a reading of 116.7 in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 112.85, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 112.48. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 113.70, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 114.18.

Looking ahead, investors would await Japan’s machine orders and trade balance data, both for September, set to release overnight.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.15% against the CHF and closed at 1.0029.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9991, with the USD trading 0.38% lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9968, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9945. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0035, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0079.

With no macroeconomic releases in Switzerland today, investors would look forward to global macroeconomic releases for further directions.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.13% against the CAD and closed at 1.3126.

Data revealed that Canada's building permits rebounded 0.4% on a monthly basis in September, following a revised fall of 1.1% in the prior month. Market participants had anticipated building permits to rise 0.3%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3111, with the USD trading 0.11% lower against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3092, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3074. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3144, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3178.

Going forward, investors would await Canada's Ivey purchasing managers index for October, scheduled to release later in the day.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.29% against the USD and closed at 0.7236.

Yesterday, data showed that Australia's AIG performance of construction index eased to a level of 46.4 in October, compared to a level of 49.3 in the prior month.

LME Copper prices declined 0.5% or $34.0/MT to $6205.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.5% or $9.0/MT to $1950.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.7258, with the AUD trading 0.30% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7221, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7185. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7278, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7299.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold declined 0.33% against the USD and closed at USD1228.50 per ounce, ahead of the outcome of US midterm elections.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1230.00, with gold trading 0.12% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1223.53, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1217.07. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1237.13, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1244.27.

The yellow metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 0.78% against the USD and closed at USD14.54 per ounce, tracking losses in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 14.57, with silver trading 0.24% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 14.46, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.35. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 14.69, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 14.83.

The white metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.