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ECB left main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.00% as widely expected. Marginal lending rate and deposit rate were held at 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. It also reiterated that interest rates will " remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019".

Full statement below.

Monetary policy decisions

At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council will continue to make net purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) at the new monthly pace of €15 billion until the end of December 2018. The Governing Council anticipates that, subject to incoming data confirming the medium-term inflation outlook, net purchases will then end. The Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time after the end of the net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:30 CET today.

Here are the latest developments in global markets:

FOREX: The euro was slowly rising versus the US dollar (+0.15%) below 1.1500 on Thursday ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision later in the day, where the Bank is expected to keep policy unchanged but is likely to give some growth hints. The pair pared some losses after sliding to a fresh 2-month low of 1.1377 on Wednesday. Earlier in the day, the German Ifo business climate index for October dropped to 102.8 from 103.7 in the previous month, while the Ifo measure which tracks business expectations for the next six months also clocked in lower than forecasts. Yet, the euro showed little weakness in the wake of the data. Pound/dollar advanced by 0.16% as the British Prime Minister seemed to have regained some support – at least for now – from Conservatives over her Brexit strategy, avoiding a leadership challenge on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the UK Brexit negotiator, Dominic Raab said that any extension of the transition period should be temporary, while reiterating that good progress has been achieved in negotiations. The US dollar index eased lower by 0.14%, while dollar/yen was flat. The antipodean currencies were mixed today. Aussie/dollar was up by 0.28% at 0.7075 and kiwi/dollar down by 0.15% at 0.6518. Meanwhile, selling interest in dollar/loonie continued (-0.27%) as the BoC raised rates as expected but appeared more hawkish. In emerging currencies, the offshore yuan inched to a 22-month low of 6.94 against the dollar.

STOCKS: European stocks were mostly in the green on Thursday despite the deep sell-off in US and Asian equities which suffered on the back of discouraging earnings results. At 1045 GMT the pan-European STOXX 600 was trading higher by 0.16%, while the blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 was losing an equivalent percentage. The German DAX 30 was up by 0.23% and the French CAC 40 surged by 1.13% led by technology and industrials after Moody’s altered Peugeot’s outlook to positive. The Spanish IBEX 35 climbed by 1.21% as non-consumer cyclicals surged. The British FTSE 100 increased slightly by 0.10%. In the US, stocks were ready to open in positive territory after the aggressive bearish moves on Wednesday.

COMMODITIES: In energy markets, WTI crude and Brent were near their opening prices with the former last seen at $66.78 per barrel and the latter at $76.24. Moreover, copper plunged by 0.96% while gold prices were moving sideways around $1233, marginally below the 3-month high of $1,239.68 reached on Tuesday.

Day ahead: Draghi in focus after ECB policy decision; US durable goods orders eyed for growth clues

With risk-off sentiment growing among investors amid trade risks, Brexit and Italian budget uncertainties as well as the recent tumble in stock markets, the ECB is rather anticipated to appear cautious today when it concludes its two-day policy meeting at 1145 GMT. Policymakers are expected to reiterate that interest rates will remain unchanged until the end of the 2019 summer and the 2.5 trillion-euro quantitative easing program will stop in December. As this is nothing new to investors ears, the market interest will shift to the press conference following the rate announcement at 1230 GMT. Undoubtedly, the ECB chief Mario Draghi will face several questions about the Italian budget problem, with investors eagerly waiting to hear whether the ECB is planning to intervene by aiding the Italian government. While Italy will likely prove to be the biggest loser once the ECB pulls out of the bond market given Italy’s massive 130% debt-to GDP, Draghi is anticipated to say that assistance to individual governments is not ECB’s job. Other global risks such as the US trade protectionism and Brexit will probably be topics of discussion.

Should Draghi emphasize that rising political and economic uncertainties in the EU and abroad are a threat to the bloc’s growth, reassessing the balance of risks to the downside compared to the broadly balanced outlook he supported in the previous meeting, the euro could face headwinds. Alternatively, a more positive tone, messaging that growth weakness in the euro area will fade in subsequent months, could help the euro to rise higher.

Meanwhile in the US, durable goods orders will be closely watched ahead of Q3 GDP growth figures due on Friday. The data which are considered a good prediction of where GDP growth might be heading are expected to show that new orders for long-lasting manufacturing items have declined by 1.0% m/m in September after increasing by 4.4%, the fastest pace in more than a year. The downfall could be a matter of higher oil prices which probably weighed on transport purchases as the core measure which excludes transportation products is anticipated to rise by 0.5% m/m from 0.0% previously. Also, on the plus side are the nondefense capital orders which factor out aircraft items. Analysts estimate that measure to rebound from -0.9% to +0.5%.

In the event of an upward surprise in the above data, the dollar could come under renewed buying interest and vice versa. Later at 1400 GMT, pending home sales for the month of September could bring a fresh wave of volatility to the greenback given the downward pressure new home sales caused to Wall Street when the numbers appeared weaker than expected. Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 20 will be issued at 1230 GMT.

Elsewhere, Tokyo CPI stats for the month of October will gather attention at 2330 GMT.

In equities, earnings releases from Google’s parent Alphabet, Amazon and Intel – due after US markets close – could move stocks in subsequent sessions.

As for today’s public appearances, Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida will be speaking on “Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy” before a Peterson Institute for International Economics luncheon, in Washington at 1615 GMT. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will be commenting on the same topic later at 2300 GMT before the Money Marketeers of New York University.

In Canada, trade ministers will hold a two-day meeting to discuss how to reform the World Trade Organization, while the Japanese Prime Minister will be flying to China today at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang.

NZDUSD has been flattening today after the strong rebound on the 0.6500 psychological level earlier in the day. The pair remains under selling pressure as it still stands below the short-term moving averages and beneath the near-term falling trend line.

In the short-term, indicators suggest that the rally to the downside is not over yet as the MACD oscillator is strengthening its negative momentum below the trigger and zero lines in the 4-hour chart. Looking at the RSI indicator, it is moving sideways, supporting that consolidation could also emerge before the price continues bearish structure. Moreover, the 20- and 40-simple moving averages (SMAs) posted a bearish crossover on Wednesday.

Should the pair extend losses, immediate support area for investors to look at is 0.6492 – 0.6500, taken from the latest lows. Beneath the latter zone, it would be interesting to see whether the bears can unlock again the low of 0.6423, identified by the bottom on October 8.

In the alternative scenario, price advances may stall initially near the 20- and 40-SMAs at 0.6545 and 0.6556 respectively and subsequently around the 0.6565 resistance level. A potential upside violation of this level would hit the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downleg from 0.7060 to 0.6423, around 0.6572. A move higher would also coincide with a break of the downtrend line, taking the pair towards the 0.6600 handle.

Regarding to the longer-timeframe, NZDUSD has been trading bearish in the past four months after the pullback on the 0.7060 hurdle, but if the price jumps above the falling trend line, this could shift the outlook to a more neutral to bullish one. However, in the very short-term timeframe, the pair remains steady below the diagonal line.

Anxiety remains as markets pare losses

Turbulence in stock markets is fast becoming the norm, with the sell-off in the US and Asia killing any hopes that the worst of the storm has passed.

European markets have managed to find their feet in early trade, having been pressured lower at the open, only to recover the lost ground and trade in positive territory late in the morning. I don’t think anyone is going to get carried away with the rebound at this stage, a collective sense of relief is probably a more accurate reflection of the mood on Thursday.

This is certainly helping to buoy US futures ahead of the open after another miserable day on Wall Street, which saw the S&P 500 and Dow fall into negative territory for the year and took the NASDAQ into correction territory. I think we really need to see some expectation-beating earnings reports about now to remind investors why we got to these levels in the first place. Unfortunately, third quarter earnings growth is expected to soften a little after the first two seriously raised the bar.

Safe havens pare gains but appetite remains strong

Safe havens have naturally been the outperformers recently, with Gold regaining its place among the favoured instruments. As soon as US stocks fell victim to the run on risk that had already taken down its Asian and European counterparts, appetite for Gold returned which saw it break back above $1,200 and trade back at levels not seen since July.

I wonder whether the Fed is watching the way everything is unfolding and questioning whether it can afford to take a slightly more gradual approach to its tightening plans. You don’t have to agree with Trump’s view that the central bank has “gone loco” to acknowledge that anticipation of where interest rates are heading and how fast is rattling investors. The slight decline in US Treasury yields over the last couple of weeks will in a way reflect their safe haven appeal but also may suggest that investors are making an assumption on the path of interest rates, after reflecting on recent moves.

ECB unlikely to respond to recent turmoil

The ECB meeting will be an interesting distraction today, not because we’re expecting a shift in policy – as we’re not – but because recent market instability combined with Brexit uncertainty and Italian budgetary concerns may force the central bank to ease the transition in the not too distant future. It will be interesting to see how the central bank – and Draghi during the press conference – reflect on recent events and whether they see it as already being a significant headwind that could derail plans.

The ECB is still in the process of moving away from unconventional monetary policy measures and towards normal rate hikes, with QE only set to end this year. Given the very cautious approach it’s taken so far and the slowdown the economy has experienced, it wouldn’t be outrageous to assume that it won’t take too much for them to delay that first rate hike beyond the latter part of next summer. Under the circumstances though, I don’t expect Draghi to say much today and do anything to alleviate the pressure on Italian bonds at a time when it’s tangling with the European Commission over its 2019 budget.

The DAX index has rebounded with gains on Thursday, after three straight losing sessions. Currently, the DAX is trading at 11,240, up 0.44% on the day. On the release front, German Ifo Business Climate dipped to 102.8, a 3-month low. This missed the estimate of 103.1 points. Later in the day, the ECB holds a policy meeting, followed by a press conference with ECB head Mario Draghi. On Friday, Germany releases GfK Consumer Climate and the U.S publishes Advance GDP for the third quarter.

Global markets are seeing red, as Asian markets and Wall Street continue to spiral downwards. The DAX has slumped some 3.6% this week, and the index touched a low of 11,078 earlier on Thursday, its lowest level since December 2016. However, the DAX has moved higher in the European session. Nervous investors are keeping a close eye on the ECB, which holds a policy meeting later on Thursday. The bank is expected to hold the course with interest rate levels, which have been pegged at a flat 0.00% for almost three years. Despite a host of geopolitical hotspots, both in Europe and abroad, the ECB remains on track to end its massive stimulus program in December. Trouble spots include the spike in Italian bond yields, the Brexit impasse and the U.S-China trade war. This has taken a toll on the equity markets, as well as on the euro, which is down close to 1 percent this week. The eurozone economy remains in good shape, but is vulnerable to these negative developments, and investors will be closely attuned to statements accompanying the rate decision, as well as Draghi’s follow-up press conference.

Barring an economic meltdown, it’s a safe bet that the ECB will wind up its asset-purchase program in December. The markets are now looking ahead to 2019, focusing on the timing of a rate hike. The ECB has adhered to the line that rates will stay on hold “through the summer of 2019”. However, it’s unlikely that policymakers can ignore the issue of a rate hike, which would be a historic move, as the bank last raised rates in 2011. The head of the Dutch central bank, Klaas Knot, recently said that the ECB will have to initiate discussions over the timing of a rate hike in January. Investors will be keeping a close eye on the ECB, looking for clues as to the timing of a rate hike.

The Aussie dollar bounces after repeated rejection at strong 0.7055 support today, as downside attempts in past two days stalled here.

Momentum broke into positive territory and slow stochastic is about to reverse from oversold zone, supporting idea of stronger recovery, but extension and close above 0.7102/10 (10SMA/base of 4-hr cloud/falling 20SMA) is needed to confirm scenario and sideline existing risk of retesting key support – 0.7040 zone base.

Overall picture is bearish and favors selling upticks before final attack at targets at 0.7040 (base) and psychological 0.7000 support.

Res: 0.7084, 0.7102, 0.7110, 0.7149
Sup: 0.7055, 0.7040, 0.7000, 0.6973

WTI oil holds steady on Thursday and attempts higher again after recovery was rejected at $67.70, after short-lived probe above strong barrier at $ $67.44 (200SMA) on Wednesday. Wednesday's daily candle with long upper shadow was negative signal, as fifth consecutive rise in US crude inventories (6.34 mln bls vs forecasted build of 3.69 mln bls), erased recovery. Bears may stay on hold for extended consolidation as traders book some profits from Tuesday's strong fall. Consolidative phase should stay capped by 200SMA to keep strong bearish bias on negative techs/fundamentals. Stronger recovery could be anticipated on sustained break above 200SMA, which would expose broken Fibo 61.8% of $64.43/$76.88/falling 10SMA ($ 69.19/23) and $70 pivot (psychological barrier / Fibo 38.2% of $76.88/$65.73 fall).

Res: 66.96, 67.70, 68.48, 69.23
Sup: 65.98, 65.73, 64.84, 64.43

Notes/Observations

• ECB: no material changes in policy or guidance expected today; key discussion point may be the risks on the outlook ( Draghi might have to defend the positive growth outlook)
• German IFO Survey comes in below expectations, continuing a string of weaker data for the region
• Norway Central Bank (Norges) left the Deposit Rates unchanged at 0.75% (as expected); and maintained the path for another hike next quarter

Asia:

• South Korea Q3 Preliminary GDP misses expectations as BOK considers a rate hike (Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.3%e
• BOJ Deputy Gov Wakatabe: Taking strong steps to burst bubble could push economy into serious recession; still talks on feasibility of tightening monetary policy as a preemptive step against rise in asset prices
• Fitch affirmed Australia sovereign rating at AAA; outlook stable

Europe:

• PM May meeting to the 1922 committee of Conservative MPs (back benchers): PM gave several examples of what concessions EU had made to Britain. Tells the rank-and-file members of Parliament to hold their nerve as she pursued a Brexit deal (no-leadership challenge at the closed-door meeting)
• Italy PM Conte stated that there was no plan B on 2019 budget; did not ask Putin to buy Italian sovereign bonds
• Italy Dep PM Salvini: Italy govt would oppose any new taxes in next EU budget

Americas:

• Fed Beige Book noted that wage growth was mostly characterized as modest or moderate
• Fed's Bostic (dove, voter): US economy was chugging along 'quite well'; Fed's view was to let the economy stand on its own

Energy

• Iraq Parliament confirmed Thamer Ghadhban as new Oil Minister. He noted that Iraq would cooperate with OPEC members to stabilize the oil market and help tp keep fair prices for producers/consumers

Macro

• (DE) Germany: Confidence continues to wane as evidenced by October Ifo business climate index which fell back to 102.8 from 103.7. The expectations reading dipped to 99.8 from 100.9, while the current assessment number declined to 105.9 from 106.6. Read in conjunction with recent weaker PMI readings is yet more evidence that growth momentum is slowing rapidly especially in Germany where the manufacturing sector is particularly hit by global trade tensions. This weekend's regional election also brings the political risk element into play especially if there's a similar disastrous result as last weekend's election in Bavaria.
• (EU) ECB: The ECB is widely expected to keep policy and rate guidance unchanged at today's meeting, the focus will be on President Draghi's response to the latest sell-off in BTPs that were triggered by the standoff between Rome and the EU over Italy's budget proposals. Draghi will likely stick to plans to confirm the phasing out of asset purchases by the end of the year, but at the same time, likely to stress once again that asset purchases are now part of the bank's regular toolkit and can be revived if necessary. Remains likely that rates will be on hold at least through the summer of next year, with ECB's Rehn suggesting recently that markets are right to price in the first move in the last quarter of 2019.

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 +0.06% at 353.46, FTSE -0.29% at 6,942.59, DAX +0.11% at 11,204.31, CAC-40 +0.79% at 4,992.04, IBEX-35 +1.02% at 8,766.00, FTSE MIB +0.95% at 18,660.50, SMI -0.49% at 8,690.50, S&P 500 Futures +0.74%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes:

Equities

• European Indices have reversed earlier sharp declines to trade mainly higher across the board ahead of today's ECB rate meeting. Asian Indices traded lower across the board, while US futures rebound after sharp declines yesterday in which the Nasdaq dropped over 4%.
• On a busy day for corporate earnings, WPP drops sharply in the UK after a decline in Rev and cutting its outlook. AB Inbev is another notable faller after missing on the top and bottom line. Meanwhile PSA group rallies on upbeat production outlook, Capgemini rises over 4% after beat and raised outlook, Daimler, Covestro, UBS, Schneider Electric, Kion Group and LLoyds among other notable risers after earnings.
  In the M&A space CEVA logistics rises over 30% after a strategic partnership with CMA CGM whereby it will offer CHF30/shr who wish to exit. In the US Tesla rose sharply in after hours after a beat on the top and bottom line and strong cash flow generation, Microsoft also beat on the top and bottom line and continued seeing growth in its cloud business. Looking ahead notable earners include Comcast, American Airlines, Merck, Twitter and Bristol Myers among others.
• Consumer discretionary: WPP [WPP.UK] -16% (earnings; outlook cut), Puma [PUM.DE] +9% (earnings; outlook raise), Anheuser-Busch InBev [ABI.BE] -8% (earnings)
• Consumer staples: ICA Gruppen [ICA.SE] +10.5% (earnings)
• Energy: Equinor [EQNR.NO] +0.5% (earnings)
• Financials: UBS [UBSG.CH] +1.5% (earnings), Lloyds [LLOY.UK] +1.5% (earnings, CFO to retire), DNB NOR [DNB.NO] -5% (earnings)
• Healthcare: argenx [ARGX.BE] -4% (earnings)
• Industrials: Daimler [DAI.DE] +2.1% (earnings), PSA [UG.FR] +5% (earnings, adjusts outlook), CEVA Logistics [CEVA.CH] +32% (deal with CMA CGM), ABB Ltd [ABBN.CH] -3.0% (earnings, cautious outlook), Norwegian Air [NAS.NO] +6% (earnings; debt continues to increase), Kion Group [KGX.DE] +14% (earnings), VAT Group [VACN.CH] -1.5% (earnings, outlook cut, new CEO), MTU Aero Engines Holding [MTX.DE] +3% (earnings, outlook raise)
• Technology: Schneider Electric [SU.FR] +6% (earnings, outlook raise), GB Group [GBG.UK] -7.5% (trading update), Capgemini SA [CAP.FR] +4.5% (earnings, outlook raise)
• Telecom: Orange [ORA.FR] -0.1% (earnings), Nokia [NOKIA.FI] +1% (earnings; Op margin outlook cut)
• Materials: Covestro [1COV.DE] +3.0% (earnings)

Speakers

• Italy Dep PM Di Maio reiterated view that was confident Italy/Germany bond yield spread would decline in the next few weeks as Italy talked with EU over budget
• Italy Dep PM Salvini stated that was in full agreement with Fin Min Tria on 2019 budget
• UK Brexit Min Raab reiterated to strive for best deal with EU. UK Parliament to have a choice between deal and alternatives. Risk of no deal was real if EU engaged in intransigent approach. Would not accept Northern Ireland proposal which left in a separate customs arrangement to the rest of the UK
• Ireland PM Varadkar reiterated that wanted an orderly Brexit. Needed guarantee on "no hard border". Could consider UK custom union plan but the proposal would have to be on a level play field; would not be an alternative to a backstop
• Norway Central Bank (Norges) Policy Statement noted that the outlook and balance of risks did not have appeared to have changed substantially since September. Reiterated that the current assessment of the outlook and balance of risks suggested that the key policy rate would most likely be increased further in 2019 Q1. Underlying inflation was close to the 2 percent target
• German IFO Economists stated that growing uncertainties were taking its toll. Would be difficult to achieve GDP growth forecast of 0.6% for Q4 but it did maintain its overall 2018 GDP growth forecast at 1.7%
• Sweden National Debt Office Borrowing Forecast made no changes to its 2018 or 2019 needs. To sell SEK32B in nominal bonds in 2018 and SEK in 2019 with I/L bonds maintained at SEK9.0B for both years. Borrowings to rise to SEK40B for nominal bonds in 2020
• China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) spokesperson Gao Feng: Reiterates that has a sincerity for trade talks with US
• China State Funds said to support 'pockets' of the declining market
• Saudi Oil Min Al-Falih: Agreed with Russia to extend agreement to preserve oil market stability. If increase in oil inventories continued there would be a downward intervention to achieve balance

Currencies/ Fixed Income

• EUR/USD little changed in the session as it hovered around the 1.14 level. Main focus to be on the upcoming ECB decision but analysts were not expecting any material changes in policy or guidance. Key discussion likely to point on risks to the outlook given tarde uncertainties and looming Brexit ( Draghi might have to defend the positive growth outlook). German IFO Survey also came in below expectations, continuing a string of weaker data for the region.
• GBP/USD holding under the 1.29 level after PM May's meeting to the 1922 committee of Conservative MPs did not trigger any leadership challenge.

Economic data

• (NO) Norway Aug AKU Unemployment Rate: 4.0% v 4.0%e
• (FI) Finland Sept Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -1.0% v +1.6% prior
• (ES) Spain Q3 Unemployment Rate: 14.6% v 14.9%e
• (ES) Spain Sept PPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.1% prior
• (SE) Sweden Oct Consumer Confidence: 99.5 v 103.3e, Manufacturing Confidence: 115.4 v 117.0e, Economic Tendency Survey: 108.0 v 111.0e
• (AT) Austria Aug Industrial Production M/M: -1.4% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.8% v 4.8% prior
• (SE) Sweden Sept PPI M/M: 1.2% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 10.1% v 9.3% prior
• (SE) Sweden Sept Household Lending Y/Y: 5.9% v 6.0%e
• (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) left the Deposit Rates unchanged at 0.75% (as expected)
• (DE) Germany Oct IFO Business Climate: 102.8 v 103.2e; Current Assessment: 105.9 v 106.0e, Expectations Survey: 99.8 v 100.4e
• (HK) Hong Kong Sept Trade Balance (HKD): -47.7B v -58.0Be; Exports Y/Y: 4.5% v 8.6%e; Imports Y/Y: 4.5% v 10.5%

Fixed Income Issuance

• (SE) Sweden sold SEK500M in 0.125% I/L 2027 Bond; Avg Yield: -1.4452% v -1.5219% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.2X v 3.26x prior

Looking Ahead

• (BR) Brazil Sept Central Govt Budget Balance (BRL): No est v -19.7B prior
• (AR) Argentina Oct Consumer Confidence: No est v 33.7 prior
• 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Sept PPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 6.2%e v 6.3% prior
• 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell bonds (3 tranches)
• 06:00 (CA) Canada Oct CFIB Business Barometer: No est v 61.4 prior
• 06:00 (FR) France Q3 Total Jobseekers: No est v 3.441M prior
• 06:00 (UK) Cabinet update on Brexit
• 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bonds
• 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
• 07:00 (UR) Ukraine Central Bank Interest Decision: Expected to leave Key Rate unchanged at 18.00%
• 07:00 (TR) Turkey Central Bank (CBRT) Interest Rate Decision; Expected to leave One-Week Repo rate unchanged at 24.00% (Note: restored credibility from its Sept move)
• 07:30 (TR) Turkey Oct Real Sector Confidence (seasonally Adj): No est v 90.4 prior; Real Sector Confidence (NSA): No est v 89.6 prior, Capacity Utilization: No est v 76.2 % prior
• 07:45 (EU) European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave 7-Day Main Refinancing Rate unchanged at 0.00%
• 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Oct Minutes
• 08:05 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
• 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 215Ke v 210K prior; Continuing Claims: 1.64Me v 1.640M prior
• 08:30 (US) Sept Advance Goods Trade Balance: -$75.1Be v -$75.5B prior (revised from -$75.8B)
• 08:30 (US) Sept Preliminary Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.5%e v 1.0% prior, Retail Inventories M/M: No est v 0.7% prior
• 08:30 (US) Sept Preliminary Durable Goods Orders: -1.5%e v +4.4% prior; Durables Ex Transportation: 0.4%e v 0.0% prior, Capital Goods Orders (Non-defense/ex-aircraft): +0.5%e v -0.9% prior, Capital Goods Shipments (Non-defense/ex-aircraft): +0.4%e v -0.2% prior
• 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
• 08:30 (EU) ECB chief Draghi post rate decision press conference
• 09:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Oct 19th: No est v $460.4B prior
• 09:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Retail Sales M/M: 0.0%e v +0.6% prior; Y/Y: 3.8%e v 4.2% prior
• 09:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Current Account: +$0.4Be v -$0.7B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $7.1Be v $10.6B prior
• 10:00 (US) Sept Pending Home Sales M/M: 0.0%e v -1.8% prior; Y/Y: -2.6%e v -2.5% prior
• 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
• 11:00 (US) Oct Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: 14e v 13 prior
• 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 7-Year Notes
• 15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug Economic Activity Index (monthly GDP) M/M: No est v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: -2.8%e v -2.7% prior

During Wednesday's trading session, the yellow metal surged to the upper boundary of the dominant ascending pattern at 1,238.00 to end the trading day at 1,235.36 mark. On Thursday morning, the gold was retraced by the dominant pattern line to trade at the 1,233.25 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the gold will keep surging towards the upper boundary of the dominant ascending pattern line at 1,238.00 mark due to the support of the 55-hour simple moving average.

However, the US Dollar could appreciate during today's US Core Durable Goods Orders fundamental data at 12:30 GMT, to force the gold to trade at 1,230.00 level.

During Wednesday's trading session, the currency pair passed through the weekly S1 at 111.87 to end the trading day at 111.82 . On Thursday morning, the US Dollar surged to break the resistance of the bottom boundary of the dominant ascending pattern to trade near the 50.00% Fibo at the 112.17 mark.

In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the US Dollar will trade downside towards the weekly S1 at 111.87 due to a break-out of the 55-hour and the 200-hour hour simple moving averages.

On the other hand, the 50.00% Fibo could support the rate during the break-out to push the rate to surge towards the 112.40 level.