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GBPUSD Outlook: Sterling Extends Gains On Positive Brexit News, Techs Are Mixed And UK Data In Focus

Cable extends gains on Wednesday and holding firmly in green for the second straight day, driven mainly by positive Brexit news.

Strong double downside rejections just above key daily cloud top support sidelined downside risk, with fresh acceleration higher being boosted by news that divorce agreement between The EU and Britain could be reached very soon.

Fresh extension higher on Wednesday broke above pivotal barrier at 1.3154 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.3297/1.2921 bear-leg) with close above to confirm bullish signal for extension above 1.3200 (Fibo 76.4% at 1.3209 and 26 Sep lower top at 1.3217).

Bullishly aligned daily MA’s turned to full bullish setup and attempting to formed double bull-cross (5/20 and 5/100SMA) while 20/100SMA’s converged and on track to form another bull-cross.

On the other side, weak momentum and overbought slow stochastic warns of stall.

Broken Fibo barrier at 1.3154 marks initial support ahead of next strong level at 1.3100 (converged 5/20/100SMA’s) which is expected to contain and keep near-term bulls in play.

Batch of UK data is in focus today (UK GDP, Manufacturing / Industrial production, Trade data) and could provide fresh direction signals.

Res: 1.3185, 1.3217, 1.3276, 1.3297
Sup: 1.3154, 1.3100, 1.3066, 1.3052

EURUSD Outlook: Extended Range Trading On Mixed Signals

The Euro extends choppy directionless trading into fifth straight day, lacking catalyst which could provide fresh direction signal.

From one side, Tuesday's long-legged Doji candle (formed after strong downside rejection near Fibo 76.4% target at 1.1422) suggests that larger bears might be running out of steam which could result in short squeeze and fresh attack at daily cloud base (1.1545).

On the other side, rising bearish momentum and multiple bear-crosses of daily MA's in bearish configuration, signal that larger downtrend from 1.1815 (24 Sep high) is intact and could extend through 1.1422 pivot for possible full retracement of 1.1300/1.1815 ascend.

Expect bullish signals on violation of 1.1534 (falling 10SMA) and 1.1545 (daily cloud base) with confirmation on close above pivotal barrier at 1.1578 (daily cloud top/Fibo 38.2% of 1.1815/1.1432 fall).

Break and close below 1.1422 target would generate negative signal and would unmask key support at 1.1300 (15 Aug low).

Res: 1.1515, 1.1534, 1.1545, 1.1578
Sup: 1.1480, 1.1432, 1.1422, 1.1394

Crude Oil Expect 75.60

Pivot (invalidation): 74.25

Our preference Long positions above 74.25 with targets at 75.30 & 75.60 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 74.25 look for further downside with 73.70 & 73.05 as targets.

Comment Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.63; (P) 148.19; (R1) 149.02; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues below 149.70. Deeper pull back cannot be ruled out. But outlook will stay remain bullish as long as 145.67 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, above 149.70 will target 153.84/156.69 resistance zone next. However, break of 145.67 will suggest that the rebound from 139.88 has completed and turn near term outlook bearish again.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that GBP/JPY has successfully defended 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47). And, the rally from 122.36 (2016 low) is still intact. Such medium to long term rise would extend through 156.96 high. This will now be the preferred case as long as 145.67 near term support holds. However, break of 145.67 will turn focus back to 139.29/47 key support zone.

Silver Spot Rebound Expected

Pivot (invalidation): 14.2500

Our preference Long positions above 14.2500 with targets at 14.4900 & 14.5600 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 14.2500 look for further downside with 14.1500 & 14.0500 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed to bullish.

Gold Spot Bullish Bias Above 1185.00

Pivot (invalidation): 1185.00

Our preference Long positions above 1185.00 with targets at 1192.00 & 1195.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1185.00 look for further downside with 1180.50 & 1176.50 as targets.

Comment Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.36; (P) 129.79; (R1) 130.25; More....

EUR/JPY lost some downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But with 131.23 minor resistance intact, further fall is still expected. Decline from 133.12 should target 127.85 support first. Break there will pave the way to retest 124.89. On the upside, though, above 131.23 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 133.12 instead.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/JPY could have defended key support level of 124.08 key resistance turned support. And, the larger up trend from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 137.49 structural resistance will target 141.04/149.76 resistance zone next. This will now be the preferred case as long as 127.85 near term support holds.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8720; (P) 0.8756; (R1) 0.8780; More...

EUR/GBP's decline continues today and reaches as low as 0.8722 so far. Intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.8620 low next. Decisive break there will resume whole down trend from 0.9304. In that case, next target will be 100% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8620 from 0.9097 at 0.8412. On the upside, above 0.8759 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8847 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong recovery.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is seen as staying in long term range pattern started at 0.9304 (2016 high). Current development suggests that fall from 0.9303, as a down leg in the pattern, is still in progress. But in case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 0.8116 cluster support, 50% retracement of 0.6935 (2015 low) to 0.9304 at 0.8120, to bring rebound.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6151; (P) 1.6207; (R1) 1.6237; More....

EUR/AUD's decline from 1.6351 extends lower today. the break of 1.6175 minor support suggests rejection from 1.6353 and dampens our bullish view. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for deeper fall. But overall, price actions from 1.6353 are seen as a corrective pattern. Hence, downside should be contained by 1.5984 support to bring up trend resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5984 support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1372; (P) 1.1395; (R1) 1.1420; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral as it's staying in tight range below 1.1452 resistance. On the downside, break of 1.1361 minor support will suggest rejection by 1.1452 resistance. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the downsides for retesting 1.1154/98. On the upside, decisive break of 1.1452 resistance should confirm bullish reversal, after drawing strong support from 1.1154/98 zone. In that case, outlook will be turned bullish for 1.1713 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1234) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.