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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.13% against the USD and closed at USD1193.00 per ounce, amid broad weakness in greenback.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1192.40, with gold trading 0.05% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1187.40, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1182.40. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1196.60, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1200.80.

The yellow metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 0.24% against the USD and closed at USD14.43 per ounce, tracking gains in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 14.40, with silver trading 0.17% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 14.30, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.20. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 14.49, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 14.57.

The white metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 0.69% against the USD and closed at USD74.74 per barrel, amid decline in Iranian crude exports ahead of US sanctions.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 74.59, with oil trading 0.20% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close, after the IMF cut its global economic growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019.

The pair is expected to find support at 73.97, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 73.34. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 75.24, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 75.90.

Crude oil is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2922; (P) 1.2963; (R1) 1.2991; More...

Outlook in USD/CAD remains unchanged. Even though USD/CAD's rebound from 1.2781 was strong, it's limited well below 1.3081 resistance. Such rebound is still seen as a correction and larger fall from 1.3385 is in progress. On the downside, below 1.2886 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.2781 first. Break of 1.2781 will extend whole decline from 1.3385 to next fibonacci level at 1.2567, which is close to 1.2526 support. However, break of 1.3081 will turn outlook bullish for 1.3225 resistance.

In the bigger picture, corrective rebound from 1.2061 could have completed at 1.3385 already. Deeper fall is mildly in favor to 61.8% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2567, which is close to 1.2526 support. For now, we're not seeing fall from 1.3385 as resuming larger down trend from 1.4689 (2015 high) yet. Thus, we'll look for bottoming signal again below 1.2567 . On the upside, though, break of 1.3081 resistance will argue that the pull back from 1.3385 is completed and rise from 1.2061 is resuming for another high above 1.3385.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7069; (P) 0.7088; (R1) 0.7121; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.7040 extends. While further rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited well below 0.7314 resistance bring fall resumption. On the downside, of 0.7040 will resume whole down trend from 0.8135 to 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7084 from 0.7314 at 0.6948 next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, break of 0.7500 support turned resistance will argue that the corrective pattern from 0.6826 is going to extend with another rising leg before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.76; (P) 113.07; (R1) 113.28; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral with focus on 38.2% retracement of 110.37 to 114.54 at 112.94. On the upside, above 113.55 will suggest that the pull back from 114.54 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 114.54 and 114.73 key resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 110.37 to 114.54 at 112.94 will target 61.8% retracement at 111.96.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9900; (P) 0.9929; (R1) 0.9946; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 0.9954 temporary top is in progress. Deeper pull back could be seen to 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 0.9863). But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9541 to 0.9954 at 0.9796 to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 0.9954 will target 1.0067 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1449; (P) 1.1476; (R1) 1.1520; More.....

EUR/USD dipped to 1.1431 but recovered notably from there. Intraday bias is turned neutral for some more consolidations. But another decline is expected s long as 1.1549 minor resistance holds. Below 1.1431 will resume the fall from 1.1814 and target 1.1300 low. Nonetheless, break of 1.1549 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound, back to 55 day EMA (now at 1.1621).

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3068; (P) 1.3110; (R1) 1.3186; More...

GBP/USD's rebound from 1.2921 resumed by taking our 1.3131 and hit as high as 1.3161 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 1.3297 high. But still, we'd expect strong resistance from 1.3316 key fibonacci level to limit upside to bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.3032 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2921 first.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4062). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it's resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.

Dollar's pull back extends in Asian session today after yesterday's rally attempts failed. Retreat in treasury yields is a factor weighing down the greenback. The late rebound in Italian bond was another factor. Though, Yen is even weaker as risk sentiments stabilized. On the other hand, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are the stronger ones today. For the week up to this point, Euro is the weakest one, followed by Dollar, Australian Dollar is the strongest, followed by New Zealand Dollar.

US indices closed lower overnight but losses were limited. DOW dropped -0.21%, S&P 500 declined -0.14% and NASDAQ indeed gained 0.03%. Also, al three indices were kept above Monday's lows. Retreat in US yields was a factor supporting stocks. Five year yield closed down -0.016 to 3.057, 10-year yield down -0.025 at 3.208, 30 year yield down -0.035 at 3.368. In Asia, Nikkei is down -0.08% at the time of writing. Singapore Strait Times down -0.76%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.43% and China Shanghai SSE is down -0.18%.

Technically, the consolidation for more Dollar consolidations seems to be set. EUR/USD has clearly lost momentum despite yesterday's dip to 1.1431. GBP/USD is extending the rebound from 1.2921. USD/CHF is likely heading lower after rejection by 0.9954. And AUD/USD's rebound from 0.7040 is extending. It's again, a focus on whether USD/JPY would take out 112.94. fibonacci level firmly or rebound from there.

Trump reiterated his criticism on Fed hikes

Trump criticized Fed's rate hikes again in a CNBC interview from the south lawn of the White House. He said "I think we don't have to go as fast". And, he was "worried about the fact that they seem to like raising interest rates, we can do other things with the money."

On the economy, Trump said "the numbers we're producing are record-setting," apparently referring the lowest unemployment rate in around 40 years. And, he added "I don't want to slow it down, even a little bit, especially when you don't have the problem of inflation". And, on inflation he said "you don't see that inflation coming back. Now, at some point it will and you go up".

Though, he also repeated that he had no discussed the concerns personally with Fed Chair Jerome Powell and he likes to "stay uninvolved".

Fed Williams: Fed is nearing end of monetary policy normalization

New York Fed President John Williams said in speech that recent FOMC statement well summarized the current US economy, with the word "strong" appeared five times. And Fed "has attained its dual mandate objectives of maximum employment and price stability about as well as it ever has." He added that "most indicators point to a very strong labor market" while "inflation is right on target:"

He expected fiscal stimulus and favorable financial conditions to provide "tailwinds" to the economy for more strong growth. He expected real GDP to grow by 3.0% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. Unemployment rate is expected to edge down to slightly below 3.% next year. Price inflation is expected to move up a bit above 2%. But he added that "I don't see any signs of greater inflationary pressures on the horizon."

Regarding removal of "accommodative" language in latest FOMC statement, Williams said "these more concise statements do not signify a shift in our monetary policy approach." And, they just "represent the natural evolution of the language describing the factors influencing our policy decisions ". And the changes in communications are signs that Fed is "nearing the end of the process of normalizing monetary policy".

Fed Kaplan: Inflation to stay around target next year and fiscal stimulus fades

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said Fed is reaching its dual mandate of price stability and full employment. He saw strong GDP growth this year. Nonetheless, he also pointed to recent surged in 10-year Treasury yield and said it's "telling me that prospects for future U.S. growth are somewhat sluggish (and) that outward growth is looking a little more uncertain."

Besides also expected inflation to just stay around Fed's target as the impact of fiscal stimulus fades in 2019. He added "to the extent that (inflation) gets above our target, our base case is that that move will be more gradual than something more sudden or substantial."

UK Raab hinted at no Brexit deal in October, targeting November

UK Brexit Minister Dominic Raab told the parliament yesterday that the European Council meeting next week will be an " important milestone" for Brexit negotiation. And he expected it to be "a moment where we will make some progress". He added that " negotiations were always bound to be tough in the final stretch". But he remained "confident we will reach a deal this autumn." His refrained comments suggested that he is targeting to complete the deal in November rather than October, as not enough progress was made. Raab also reiterated the Chequers proposal will deliver "frictionless trade with the EU that we have now". But he urged the EU to "meet us half way".

Separately, ITV reported that Prime Minister Theresa May's chief negotiation Olly Robbins has made "meaningful progress" with EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier on Irish border issue. But no detail on the so called progress was revealed, nor the source. The Times reported that May is planning to have an extended discussion on Brexit at next Tuesday's cabinet meeting to warp things up before the EU summit.

Italian bond could have passed selling climax temporarily

Italian 10 year yield breached 3.7 handle yesterday but reversed from there to close at 3.511. The development gave Euro a roller-coaster ride against Dollar. But against others, Euro stays weak. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said he's not pleased with German-Italian yield spread has widened to 315. But he expressed his confidence that when investors have thoroughly read the budget, markets will calm down. It's unsure if markets have listened to him. After all, Italian bonds could have passed the selling climax for now, but it's certainly not out of the woods yet as rating agencies' actions are lining up towards the end of the month.

On the data front

Australia Westpac consumer confidence rose 1.0% in October. Japan machine orders rose strongly by 6.8% mom in August versus expectation of -3.6% mom fall.

UK data will be major focus in European session. Monthly GDP, trade balance, industrial and manufacturing production will be released.

Later in the day, Canada will release building permits. US will release PPI inflation.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3068; (P) 1.3110; (R1) 1.3186; More...

GBP/USD's rebound from 1.2921 resumed by taking our 1.3131 and hit as high as 1.3161 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 1.3297 high. But still, we'd expect strong resistance from 1.3316 key fibonacci level to limit upside to bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.3032 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2921 first.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4062). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it's resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.

Economic Indicators Update