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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 0.34% against the USD and closed at USD14.62 per ounce.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 14.60, with silver trading 0.10% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 14.51, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.41. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 14.75, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 14.90.

The white metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil declined 2.09% against the USD and closed at USD74.64 per barrel, amid rise in the US crude stockpiles and following reports that Russia and Saudi Arabia have reached a private agreement to raise oil output.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 74.81, with oil trading 0.23% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 73.64, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 72.46. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 76.23, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 77.64.

Crude oil is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

STOCKS

Dow (26627.48, -0.75%) has fallen and tested support just below 26500 before bouncing back to close higher. While the support holds, the index could bounce back to test 27000 on the upside ; else a break below 26500, could make the index vulnerable to a further fall towards 26000.

Dax (12244.14, -0.35%) could trade below 12400 for some more sessions to possibly re-test crucial long term support near 12000. Thereafter an eventual rise towards 12400 and higher is on the cards as medium to long term looks bullish on the weekly candle chart.

Nikkei (23795.82, -0.75%) has come off sharply while resistance near 24400 is holding well. It could test 23400 on the downside before again bouncing back to higher levels.

There is decent support on the weekly candles just below current levels on the Nifty (10599.25, -2.39%). If that holds, the Nifty could rise back towards 10800 or higher in the near term. Failure to bounce back above 10800 just now could open up chances of breaking below 10600 next week.

COMMODITIES

Brent (85.02) and WTI (74.83) are down from immediate resistances near 86 and 77 respectively. Brent could see a short dip to 83 while WTI could come off towards 74 in the near term. Thereafter a rise back towards the previous highs looks likely. Note that we do not prefer a rise above $90 in the medium term and expect a near term top in place at $90 or at slightly lower levels.

Gold-WTI ratio (15.81) is looking bearish in the near term and could possibly head towards 15.0-14.5 in the medium term. Another week of sideways consolidation is possible in the 1210-1190 region before the price breaks on either side of the range.

Copper (2.7730) has dipped again to come back towards 2.75. Resistance at 2.85 looks strong in the near term and could keep the price stable for a few more sessions ranged in the 2.85-2.75 region. A break below 2.75, if seen could take it back to 2.70; else an attempt to rise beyond 2.85-2.90 is likely.

FOREX

The US NFP and employment data could be a crucial determinant of Dollar strength in the near term. A fall to 1.14-1.13 is preferred on the Euro in the next couple of weeks - this could weaken Rupee further.

Dollar Index (95.76) : While above 95.75, the index could move up to test long term resistance near 96.5 by early next week. Watch out for US employment data today - it could even trigger an eventual break above 96.5.

Euro (1.1511) : While below 1.153, Euro is likely to test support near 1.14 by early next week. It could even target the 200 weeks MA near 1.132 after that, in the next couple of weeks.

Dollar Yen (113.94): While above 113.9-113.8, it should test its Nov '17 high of 115 by next week. Alternatively, a break below 113.8 could take it towards 113 next week. However, preference remains for a rise to 115.

Euro-Yen (131.16) : Support at 131 is holding for now. If Dollar Yen breaks below 113.8, Euro Yen could break the 131 support. However, given our preferred views on Euro and Dollar Yen, Euro Yen could be expected to stay stable above 131 in the next couple of sessions. In the medium term, a rise towards resistance near 133-134 is looking possible.

Pound (1.3019) had broken support near 1.2975 yesterday, but has again risen slightly above it currently. It has resistance near 1.315 which should cap the upside in the near term. A fall towards lower support (1.280-1.275) is still the preferred view for next week.

Aussie (0.7068) has broken below its previous low of 0.7085 and could now target support near 0.7050. If it closes today below the long term support on weekly line chart (0.710-0.705), it's a bearish indicator for the medium term.

Dollar Rupee (73.58): While above 73.20, chances of a rise to 74.20-50 by early next week stays intact. Watch out for the US employment data release and the RBI policy decision today.

INTEREST RATES

The US employment and NFP data today would be very crucial for US yields. Another positive show might lead to yields continuing their upmove - while any dip in the data could pause the rise in yields. US yields have crossed above crucial resistances in this week. The rise in Japanese long term yields is also bullish for yields globally.

The US 10 Year (3.19%) and 30 year (3.35%) could target 3.25% and 3.40% in the near term if the employment figures come out to be strong. Otherwise, a fall back towards 3.10% and 3.25% could take place.

The 10 Year German-US spread (-2.66%) has risen a bit after testing -2.71%, but it does look bearish towards -2.80% on long term chart.

The German 10 year yield (0.53%) meanwhile is continuing to stay below resistance near 0.50-0.55%. However, given the rise in US and Japanese yields, we have to be wary of a possible break of this resistance.

The Japan 30Yr (0.95%) is breaking above long term resistance level near 0.90%-0.93%. A sustained break above this level could be very bullish for global yields. Japan 10 year yield (0.15%) has also risen above 0.14% and could now even target 0.25% in the medium term.

The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.16%) is likely to test crucial resistance near 8.25% on the upside over today-tomorrow. The rise in yields globally makes a break above 8.25% possible - in which case, the medium to long term target could be 9%.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1470; (P) 1.1507; (R1) 1.1550; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.1463 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited below 1.1623 resistance to bring another decline. On the downside, break of 1.1463 will extend the fall from 1.1814 to retest 1.1300 low.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we'd expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2948; (P) 1.2995; (R1) 1.3067; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.2921 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.3115 resistance to bring another decline. We'll holding on to the view that corrective rise from 1.2661 has completed and larger decline from 1.4376 might be resuming. Below 1.2921 will target 1.2784 support next. Nonetheless, break of 1.3115 will dampen our view and turn focus back to 1.3297 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4062). The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it's resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.0.9863; (P) 0.9894; (R1) 0.9955; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside as rise from 0.9541 is in progress. Current rally should target a test on 1.0067 resistance next. On the downside, though, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.9889 minor support will indicate short term topping and bring lengthier consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.53; (P) 114.04; (R1) 114.45; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 114.54 temporary top. As long as 113.51 support holds, further rise is still expected. On the upside, decisive break of 114.73 will confirm larger bullish case. Next target will be 118.65 resistance. Nonetheless, break of 113.51 will indicate short term topping and bring lengthier consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2876; (P) 1.2907; (R1) 1.2959; More...

While the rebound from 1.2781 was strong, it's held well below 1.3081 resistance so far. Intraday bias remains neutral and outlook stays bearish. Another fall is in favor. On the downside, break of 1.2781 will extend whole decline from 1.3385 to next fibonacci level at 1.2567, which is close to 1.2526 support.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2061 to 1.3385 at 1.2879 key fibonacci level argues that whole choppy rebound from 1.2061 has completed at 1.3385 already. Deeper fall would be seen back to 61.8% retracement at 1.2567, which is close to 1.2526 support and possibly below. For now, we're not seeing fall from 1.3385 as resuming larger down trend from 1.4689 (2015 high) yet. Thus, we'll look for bottoming signal again below 1.2567 .

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7058; (P) 0.7085; (R1) 0.7105; More...

AUD/USD's decline is still in progress and edges lower to 0.7061 so far. Intraday bias stays on the downside. Current down trend from 0.8135 is in progress for 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7084 from 0.7314 at 0.6948 next. On the upside, break of 0.7096 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We'll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

Dollar firm up mildly together with Yen as markets await non-farm payroll report today. The greenback suffered brief setback overnight as traders turned a bit cautious ahead of job report. But Dollar quickly find footing from surging treasury yields. Canadian Dollar also firm up slightly today. BoC is widely expected to hike again this month. Today's job data shouldn't deter the path but might add to speculations of more down the road, it it's strong. Australian and New Zealand remain the weakest ones, on monetary policy divergence and risk aversion in Asia.

US treasury yields extended the strong march overnight. 10-year yield closed up 0.036 at 3.197. 30-year yield closed up 0.036 at 3.355. Stocks were apparently troubled by that as DOWN lost -0.75% to 26627.48. S&P 500 dropped -0.82% while NASDAQ declined even worse by -1.81%. In Asia, Nikkei is down -0.52% at the time of writing, Hong Kong HSI is down -0.42%, Singapore Strait Times is down -0.94%. China is still on holiday and it's definitely an interesting thing to see next week, on how bad their market performs. Japan JGB 10 year yield drops slightly by -0.0065 to 0.153. Let's see how far it can go beyond BoJ's allowed band of -0.1 to 0.1%.

Technically, while Dollar treated against Euro and Sterling overnight, it's kept well above minor near term support level. These are, 1.1623 in EUR/USD and 1.3115 in GBP/USD. Both are technically still bearish for the near term. The tricky part is indeed USD/JPY, which lost much momentum ahead of 114.73 key resistance. A break of 113.51 will likely bring more consolidation. AUD/USD took out 0.7084 to resume medium term down trend yesterday. EUR/AUD also took out 1.16252 minor resistance, which suggests that medium term up trend is resuming. Break of 1.6353 high will confirm.

Another solid non-farm payrolls report awaited

Markets are expecting NFP report to show 188k job growth in September. Unemployment rate is expected to drop 0.1% to 3.8%. Wage growth will again be a major focus. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% mom.

Related pre-NFP job data were generally solid. ADP report showed 230k growth in private sector jobs, well above exceptiones. ISM manufacturing employment rose 0.3 to 58.8. ISM non-manufacturing was jumped notably by 5.7 to 62.4, which is very impressive. Initial jobless claims and continuing claims hit multi decade record lows.

So overall, we'd expect NFP to give a set of decent to strong data. The main question is how fast wage growth has been. Meanwhile, the reaction in forex markets is not that straight forward. We'll have to see how treasury yield and stocks respond to the data at the same time.

Here are some other NFP previews:

• NFP Preview: Stocks Succumb To Surging Bond Yields
• US Jobs Data Unlikely A Game Changer, Still Likely To Generate Short-Term Volatility
• Special Report: Insights About US- NFP Data

ECB Coeure: Eurozone economy in best shape for many years

ECB Governing Council Benoit Coeure said in a speech yesterday that "the euro area economy has now enjoyed five years of uninterrupted growth". And, GDP is "well above the levels we observed before the great financial crisis."

He also pointed out that labor market has "improved notably" in recent years. Employment has risen by 9.2m since mid-2013. Unemployment rate dropped to 8.1% in August and hit the lowest level in 10years. Participation rate also rose 1.5 to 64% from a decade ago.

On inflation, Coeure added that "with stronger growth and rising employment, we also see a gradual build-up in price pressures". Employee compensation have "finally started to recover" Also, he noted that as they are growing faster than the rate of inflation, many people are seeing their real incomes rising.

Overall, he said, it is fair to say that the euro area economy is in the best shape it has been in for many years.

Australia retail sales grew 0.3% in August, South Australia led the way up

Australia retail sales grew 0.3% in August in seasonally adjusted term, matched expectations. There were rises in five of the six industries, except that food retailing was relatively unchanged at 0.0%.

Sales in South Australia led the way by rising 0.8%, followed by Tasmanian by 0.5%, New South Wales by 0.5%, Victoria and Australian Capital Territory both by 0.2%, Queensland by 0.1%. Sales i Western Australia was unchanged at 0.0% whilst there was a fall in the Northern Territory by -1.3%.

Also release in Asian session, Japan overall household spending rose 2.8% yoy in August, versus expectation of 0.2% yoy. Labor cash earnings rose 0.9% yoy versus expectation of 1.3% yoy.

Looking ahead

Germany will release factory orders and PPI in European session. Swiss will release foreign currency reserves and CPI. US non-farm payroll will be the main focus and trade balance will also be featured. Canada job data will be another focus and trade balance will be released too.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7058; (P) 0.7085; (R1) 0.7105; More...

AUD/USD's decline is still in progress and edges lower to 0.7061 so far. Intraday bias stays on the downside. Current down trend from 0.8135 is in progress for 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7084 from 0.7314 at 0.6948 next. On the upside, break of 0.7096 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Fall from there would extend to have a test on 0.6826. There is prospect of resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Current downside momentum as seen in weekly MACD support this bearish case. Firm break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7361 resistance, however, argues that a medium term bottom is possibly in place, and stronger rebound could follow. We'll assess the medium term outlook later if this happens.

Economic Indicators Update