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Japan’s Machinery Orders Climbed For The First Time In Three-Months In July
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.33% against the JPY and closed at 111.24.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 111.36, with the USD trading 0.11% higher against the JPY from yesterday's close.
Overnight data indicated that Japan's machinery orders rebounded 11.0% on a monthly basis in July, rising for the first time in three-months and beating market expectations for an advance of 5.5%. In the prior month, machinery orders had recorded a drop of 8.8%.
The pair is expected to find support at 111.12, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.89. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.59, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.83.
Trading trend in the Japanese Yen is expected to be determined by Japan's industrial production for July, scheduled to release early morning tomorrow.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.
Swiss Franc Trading On A Stronger Footing In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.26% against the CHF and closed at 0.9701.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9693, with the USD trading 0.08% lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9673, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9654. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9731, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9770.
Looking forward, traders would await Switzerland’ producer and import prices for August, set to release in a while.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6159; (P) 1.6250; (R1) 1.6303; More....
Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains on the downside. Pull back from 1.6353 short term top could extend to 38.2% retracement of 1.5601 to 1.6353 at 1.6066. But downside should be contained well above 1.5886 cluster support (61.8% retracement at 1.5888) to bring rise resumption. On the upside, break of 1.6353 will resume larger up trend to 1.6587 key resistance level.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3624 (2017 low) has just resumed. Further rise should be seen to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). Decisive break there will resume the long term rally and target 1.7488 fibonacci level. On the downside, break of 1.5601 support is need to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of deep pull back.
Loonie Trading A Tad Lower In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.41% against the CAD and closed at 1.3000.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3005, with the USD trading slightly higher against the CAD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2965, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2924. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3062, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3118.
Moving ahead, investor’s will closely monitor Canada’s new housing price index for July, due to be released later in the day.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1265; (P) 1.1289; (R1) 1.1308; More...
EUR/CHF's breach of 1.1265 minor support dampen the bullish view and argue that rebound from 1.1178 has completed at 1.1342. Intraday bias is turned back to 1.1154/98 key support. We'd still expect strong support from this key zone to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.1342 will revive the case of near term reversal and target 1.1452 resistance.
In the bigger picture, for now, the price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1196) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.
Australia’s Unemployment Rate Remained Steady At Its Six-Year Low Rate In August
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.73% against the USD and closed at 0.7171.
LME Copper prices rose 0.7% or $42.0/MT to $5891.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 2.6% or $53.5/MT to $1981.5/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7186, with the AUD trading 0.21% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.
Overnight data revealed that Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at its six-year low rate of 5.3% in August, in line with market expectations. Additionally, consumer inflation expectations also remained steady at a level of 4.0% in September.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7120, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7054. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7226, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7266.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Gold: Yellow Metal Reverses Its Gains In The Asian Sesion
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.73% against the USD and closed at USD1212.00 per ounce, as the US dollar dropped on hopes of renewed trade talks between the US and China.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1210.00, with gold trading 0.17% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1200.43, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1190.87. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1216.73, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1223.47.
The yellow metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Silver: White Metal Trading Lower In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 0.81% against the USD and closed at USD14.29 per ounce, tracking rise in gold prices.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 14.27, with silver trading 0.11% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 14.15, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.02. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 14.30, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 14.44.
The white metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Crude Oil: Oil Trading On A Negative Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 0.52% against the USD and closed at USD70.23 per barrel, after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report indicated that US crude oil stockpiles declined by 5.3 million barrels to 396.2 million in the week ended 07 September. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stated that August crude production by the cartel rose 278,000 bls a day to average 32.56mn bls a day. Further, the OPEC slightly lowered its forecast for growth in world oil demand this year to 1.62mn bls a day.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 69.86, with oil trading 0.53% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 69.15, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 68.45. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 70.91, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 71.97.
Crude oil is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1580; (P) 1.1615; (R1) 1.1661; More.....
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. With 1.1525 minor support intact, rebound from 1.1300 could extend higher. But upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779, at least on first attempt. On the downside, break of 1.1525 will indicate completion of the rebound and turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.1300 low. Overall, price actions from 1.1300 are forming a corrective pattern, that could extend for a while before completion.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 1.1300, on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and some consolidations would be seen. But still, note that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. That carries some long term bearish implications. Thus, we'd expect fall from 1.2555 high to resume after consolidation completes. Below 1.1300 should send EUR/USD through 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186. And, in that case, EUR/USD would head to retest 1.0339 (2017 low).
