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EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1359; (P) 1.1379; (R1) 1.1405; More...
Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains mildly on the upside at this point. rebound from 1.1242 short term bottom is still in progress for 1.1489 support turned resistance. Firm break there will add some credence in near term reversal ahead of key support zone between 1.1154/98. On the downside, below 1.1329 minor support, however, will suggests completion of the rebound. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.1242 low. And focus is back on 1.1154/98 key support zone.
In the bigger picture, for now, the price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. This cluster level is in proximity to long term channel support (now at 1.1173) too. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend.
Euro Extends Its Gains In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.52% against the USD and closed at 1.1490.
On the macro front, Euro-zone’s seasonally adjusted construction output rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in June, for the third consecutive month and compared to a gain of 0.30% in the prior month.
Separately, in Germany, the producer price index rose 3.0% on an annual basis in July, in line with market expectations and compared to a similar rise in the previous month.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1520, with the EUR trading 0.26% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.1429, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1337. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1577, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1633.
In absence of key macroeconomic releases in the Euro-zone today, investors would focus on global macroeconomic events for further direction.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Pound Trading On A Positive Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.45% against the USD and closed at 1.2797.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2825, with the GBP trading 0.22% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2760, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2696. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2859, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2894.
Going ahead, traders would focus on UK’s public sector net borrowing for July and CBI industrial trend orders for August, due to release in a few hours.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Japanese Yen Trading A Tad Lower In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.46% against the JPY and closed at 109.98.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 110.00, with the USD trading slightly higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 109.63, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 109.25. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 110.53, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.05.
Going ahead, traders would look forward to Japan’s machine tool orders for July, slated to release in a while.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Swiss Franc Trading Higher, Ahead Of Switzerland’s Trade Balance Data
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.38% against the CHF and closed at 0.9907.
On the data front, Switzerland’s total sight deposits rose slightly to a level of CHF576.7 billion in the week ended 17 August, from CHF576.1 billion in the previous week.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9882, with the USD trading 0.25% lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9847, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9812. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9943, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0004.
Ahead in the day, market participants would keep a close watch on Switzerland’s trade balance data for July, slated to release in a while.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Loonie Trading Slightly Higher This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.18% against the CAD and closed at 1.3040.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3033, with the USD trading 0.05% lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3007, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2981. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3076, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3119.
In absence of key macroeconomic releases in Canada today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic factors.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Aussie Extended Its Previous Session Gains This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.56% against the USD and closed at 0.7345.
LME Copper prices rose 2.0% or $119.0/MT to $5963.0/MT. Aluminium prices climbed 1.7% or $34.0/MT to $2033.0/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7350, with the AUD trading 0.07% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) August monetary policy meeting indicated that the current monetary policy stance would continue to support economic growth and that there is no strong case for near-term policy adjustment. Further, the minutes indicated that the current 1.50% rate is necessary for sustainable economic growth and does not see inflation to pick up until 2019 or 2020.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7313, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7275. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7371, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7391.
Looking ahead, market participants would keep a close watch on Australia’s Westpac leading index for July, slated to release overnight.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.80; (P) 110.24; (R1) 110.52; More...
USD/JPY's corrective fall from 113.17 resumed by taking out 110.10 and reaches as low as 109.77 so far. At this point, we'd still expect strong support around 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 109.90 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 111.42 will turn bias back to the the upside for retesting 113.17 first. However, sustained break of 109.90 will put 109.36 key support level in focus. Break of 109.36 will carry larger bearish implications.
In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.36 will mix up the outlook again. And deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 113.17 at 107.88 and below.
Gold: Yellow Metal Extends Its Gains In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.54% against the USD and closed at USD1197.40 per ounce, as a weaker greenback boosted the demand appeal for the dollar denominated commodity.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1200.8, with gold trading 0.28% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close, as the US President Donald Trump criticised the US central bank on raising interest rates.
The pair is expected to find support at 1194.07, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1187.33. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1204.37, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1207.93.
The yellow metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Silver: White Metal Reverses Its Losses In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 0.10% against the USD and closed at USD14.75 per ounce.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 14.78, with silver trading 0.17% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 14.66, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.54. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 14.86, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 14.94.
The white metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
