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Super Thursday promises to live up to its name one way or another this week, as the Bank of England either raises interest rates to post-financial crisis highs or risks causing unnecessary and significant market volatility.

• Rate hike priced in but not guaranteed
• Possible scenarios on Thursday
• Key things to look out for

It's been an unusual lead up to a central bank meeting, in that despite a lack of clear and specific warning signals, the likes of which we've become accustomed to, investors have become absolutely convinced it's happening.

In fact, markets are now pricing in almost a 90% chance that the Monetary Policy Committee will vote to hike rates on Thursday. If the central bank doesn't hike now, it will need a very good excuse and even then, this entire process of forward guidance will once again be heavily criticized.

While it may not make much sense to blame the central bank when I've earlier stated that there's been a lack of clear and specific warning signals, but policy makers are very aware of what market expectations are and when they deviate in such a significant way from reality, they do something about it. This time they have not.

This is where assumptions come into it. The lack of alternative guidance from policy makers has actually fuelled expectations that they must be planning a rate hike or they would have otherwise intervened to realign expectations.

Remember, investors are always looking for subtle hints in order to get ahead of the curve and in this case, the central bank's silence has been deafening. Or so investors hope. Should the MPC not deviate much from last month's vote and hold off again, there could be a sizeable response in the markets, particularly in the pound and short-term UK debt.

Whichever way the central bank goes – and just to be clear, I think they will raise rates – there could be a very interesting response in the markets. These are some of the possible outcomes.

Dovish hike

In this scenario, it would be natural to think that this would be bullish for the pound and, in the immediate aftermath it could be. But if markets are already largely pricing this in then what exactly is left?

A rate hike that is accompanied by dovish language and cautious approach on the economy, or even wait and see approach to Brexit negotiations, could quickly trigger some profit taking by those who have anticipated such a move prior to the meeting and be bearish for the pound not long after the announcement.

Hawkish hike

This is probably the most bullish feasible outcome for the pound. In this scenario, the BoE raises interest rates and warns that more will follow, maybe even a couple by the end of next year (more is of course possible but maybe not realistic given how the economy is right now and the uncertainty linked to Brexit).

In this case, the BoE is likely opting to look through Brexit or using base case assumptions on it – due to the sheer number of unknowns still – and base its views purely on the economic data, some of which is very good (unemployment, job openings, inflation) and some of which isn't great (wages, investment, household debt).

No hike

I don't think this is likely (although it is arguably what the central bank should be doing) but it's possible. Under this scenario, the central bank takes all of the recent data into consideration and takes the view that, given the uncertain outcome of Brexit negotiations and possibility of no deal, it makes more sense to wait until November to raise rates.

A few months is not a long time to wait but by then, they should be a lot better positioned to judge what the outcome of Brexit negotiations will be and whether it's risky or not to be raising rates in such an environment, or what the chance is that it will be reversing course in the near-future, to its own embarrassment.

Of course, the argument against this is that there has been no noise coming from the central bank that market expectations are out of sync with their own which is usually a reliable sign that they are not.

What to look out for

All things considered, a rate hike looks likely but there is going to be a number of elements of tomorrow's event that will influence how markets respond.

The interest rate decision is the most obvious (12pm UK time) but alongside the release, we'll get the minutes from the meeting, voting and the inflation report which contains new growth and inflation forecasts for the coming years, which will effectively determine how many hikes we'll see.

This will then be followed by a press conference with Carney and his colleagues 30 minutes later which is never a dull event and certainly won't be if the central bank once again bottles it.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.83; (P) 130.47; (R1) 130.91; More....

EUR/JPY dips notably after hitting 131.13 and intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 129.10 support. Break will extend the fall from 131.97 and target 127.13 support. On the upside, above 131.13 will likely resume the rebound from 124.61 thorugh 131.97.

In the bigger picture, for now, medium outlook remains cautiously bullish. the three wave structure of the fall from 137.49 to 124.61 argues that it's a correction. Also, 124.08 key resistance turned support was defended. Break of 133.47 resistance will affirm the bullish case that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is still in progress for another high above 137.49. And this will remain the favored case as long as 127.13 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.25; (P) 146.70; (R1) 147.09; More...

GBP/JPY retreated notably after hitting 147.13 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. On the upside, above 147.13 will extend the rebound from 145.25 to 149.30/99 resistance zone. On the downside, below 145.25 will resume the fall from 149.30 to 143.18/76 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, decline from 156.59 is seen as a corrective move. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 153.84 should confirm that the correction is completed and target 156.59 and above to resume the medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8871; (P) 0.8895; (R1) 0.8908; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral for the moment. The corrective pattern from 0.8957 is in progress and bring of 0.8864 will bring deeper pull back. But still, as long as 0.8815 support holds, near term outlook remains bullish. And larger rally from 0.8620 is expected to resume later. On the upside, decisive break of 0.8967 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8620 at 0.8963) should confirm completion of whole decline from 0.9305. EUR/GBP should then target 61.8% retracement at 0.9043 next.

In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is staying in long term range pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). The corrective structure of the fall from 0.9305 to 0.8620 is raising the chance that rise from 0.8312 to 0.9305 is an impulsive move. But we're not too confident on it yet. In any case, we'd stay cautious on strong resistance from 0.9304/5 to limit upside in case of further rally. Meanwhile, if there is another medium term decline, strong support will likely be seen from 0.8303 to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5725; (P) 1.5758; (R1) 1.5783; More....

EUR/AUD is staying in consolidation from 1.5886 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. With 1.5651 minor support intact, further rise is expected in the cross. On the upside, break of 1.5888 resistance will extend rise from 1.5271 towards 1.6139/89 resistance zone. However, break of 1.5651 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.5271 to 1.5886 at 1.5651) will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside for 1.5271 low.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.6189 is a corrective move and has completed at 1.5271 already. Key support levels of 1.5153 and 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.5209 were defended. And medium term rise from 1.3624 (2017 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.6189 will target 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1553; (P) 1.1579; (R1) 1.1594; More...

Downside momentum in EUR/CHF is a bit unconvincing. But still, deeper decline is expected with 1.1637 minor resistance intact. Current fall from 1.1713 should target 1.1478 support first. . Break there will confirm completion of corrective rebound from 1.1366 at 1.1713. EUR/CHF should then resume the decline from 1.2004 through 1.1366. On the upside, above 1.1637 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside and could extend the rise from 1.1366. But even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 1.2004 to 1.1366 at 1.1760 to bring near term reversal.

In the bigger picture, 1.2004 is seen as a medium term top with bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD. 1.2000 is also an important resistance level. Hence, the corrective pattern from 1.2004 is expected to extend for a while before completion. We're not anticipating a break of 1.2004 in near term. Another decline cannot be ruled out yet. But in that case, strong support should be seen at 1.1198 (2016 high), 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1646; (P) 1.1673 (R1) 1.1691; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as it's staying in familiar range. The consolidation from 1.1509 could still extend. But in case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, decisive break of 1.1507 low will resume larger down trend from 1.2555 through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won't consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

OIL short-term Elliott wave analysis suggests that the bounce to $71.13 high ended primary wave ((B)) bounce against 7/03/2018 peak ($75.27). Primary wave ((C)) lower currently remains in progress as Elliott Wave impulse structure looking for more downside. Down from $71.13 high, the decline to $67.96 low ended intermediate wave (1) in 5 waves structure. Above from there, the bounce to $70.43 high ended intermediate wave (2). The internals of Intermediate wave (2) unfolded as Elliott Wave double three structure where the initial rally to $69.92 completed Minor wave W of (2) as a Flat.

The subsequent pullback to $68.26 low ended Minor wave X of (2) as Elliott Wave Zigzag correction. Finally, the third leg higher in Minor wave Y of (2) ended at $69.92 high as Zigzag structure. Down from there, Intermediate wave (3) lower is in progress as an impulse and started nesting with Minor wave 1 ended in 5 waves at $67.31 low. Up from there, Minor wave 2 recovery remains in progress in 3, 7 or 11 swings & expected to fail below $70.43 high in first degree and against $71.13 in the second degree for more downside. As far as rally fails below 71.13, expect Oil to see further downside.

OIL 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3098; (P) 1.3122; (R1) 1.3148; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point. Outlook is unchanged that price actions from 1.2956 are viewed as a corrective pattern. On the downside, break of 1.3070 minor support will indicate completion of rebound form 1.2956 and turns bias back to the downside for retesting this low. Firm break there will resume larger decline from 1.4376 for 1.2874 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.3212 will bring further recovery. But upside should be limited by 1.3362 resistance to bring larger decline resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4179). Fall from 1.4376 should extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.1946 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 next. Decisive break of 1.2874 will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 1.1946 low. On the upside, break of 1.3362 resistance is needed to be the first indication of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9901; (P) 0.9918; (R1) 0.9937; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. On the upside, above 0.9977 will bring retest of 1.0067 first. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 0.9186. On the downside, below 0.9866 will extend the fall from 1.0067 through 0.9856 to 0.9787 support. As price actions from 1.0056 are seen as a corrective pattern, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the consolidation pattern from 1.0056 is extending with another leg. As long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds, we'd expect rise from 0.9186 to resume at a later stage to retest 1.0342 key resistance (2016 high). However, sustained break of 0.9724 will bring deeper fall, as another declining leg in the long term range pattern.