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Euro Trading A Tad Higher In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose slightly against the USD and closed at 1.1646.
The US dollar declined against the Euro, after the US President, Donald Trump criticised the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy of gradual rate hike.
In the US, data indicated that the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index climbed to 25.7 in July, higher than market expectations for a rise to 21.5. In the previous month, the index had registered a reading of 19.9. Meanwhile, the nation’s leading indicator advanced 0.5% on a monthly basis in June, while market participants had envisaged for a rise of 0.4%. Leading indicator had recorded a revised flat reading in the previous month.
Other data showed that the nation’s seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to a 48-year low level of 207.0K in the week ended 14 July 2018, defying market expectations for an increase to a level of 220.0K. Initial jobless claims had registered a revised level of 215.0 K in the prior week.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1649, with the EUR trading marginally higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.1590, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1531. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1693, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1737.
Going forward, investors will await Germany’s producer price index for June, set to release in a while.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.
Britain’s Retail Sales Unexpectedly Declined In June
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.45% against the USD and closed at 1.3016, amid disappointing retail sales data.
Data revealed that UK's retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.5% on a monthly basis in June, compared to a revised rise of 1.4% in the previous month. Markets had anticipated retail sales to rise 0.2%.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3016, with the GBP trading flat against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2955, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2895. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3079, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3143.
Looking ahead, investors will keep an eye on UK's public-sector net borrowings for June, scheduled to release in a few hours.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.
Japan’s Inflation Advanced Less-Than-Anticipated In June
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.36% against the JPY and closed at 112.44.
In the economic news, Japan's final machine tool orders advanced 11.4% on a yearly basis in June, confirming the preliminary print and after registering a gain of 14.9% in the previous month.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 112.40, with the USD trading a tad lower against the JPY from yesterday's close.
Overnight data showed that Japan's national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.7% on an annual basis in June, undershooting market consensus for an increase of 0.8%. In the prior month, the CPI had recorded a similar rise.
The pair is expected to find support at 111.92, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.43. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 113.03, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.65.
Moving ahead, traders would focus on Japan's Nikkei manufacturing PMI, coincident index and leading index, due to release next week.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Swiss Trade Surplus Surprisingly Narrowed In June
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.05% against the CHF and closed at 0.9993.
On the data front, Switzerland’s trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed to CHF2.6 billion in June, after registering a revised surplus of CHF2.8 billion in the prior month. Market participants had expected trade surplus to widen to CHF3.2 billion.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9992, with the USD trading slightly lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9953, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9914. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0037, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0082.
Amid no macroeconomic releases in Switzerland today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic factors.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Loonie Trading A Tad Higher In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.73% against the CAD and closed at 1.3265.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3264, with the USD trading marginally lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3187, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3111. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3315, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3367.
Trading trend in the Loonie will be determined by Canada’s consumer price index for June and retail sales for May, slated to release later in the day.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Aussie Trading Lower In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.57% against the USD and closed at 0.7357.
LME Copper prices declined 12.8% or $779.0/MT to $5982.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 1.1% or $22.0/MT to $2062.0/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7352, with the AUD trading 0.07% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7303, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7254. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7416, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7480.
In absence of key economic releases in Australia today, investor sentiment would be determined by global macroeconomic events.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.
Gold: Yellow Metal Trading On A Weaker Footing In The Morning Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold declined 0.26% against the USD and closed at USD1223.30 per ounce.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1218.50, with gold trading 0.39% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1209.60, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1200.70. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1228.50, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1238.50.
The yellow metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.
Silver: White Metal Trading Lower In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 1.54% against the USD and closed at USD15.33 per ounce, tracking losses in gold prices.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 15.30, with silver trading 0.20% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 15.15, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 14.99. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 15.49, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 15.68.
The white metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.
Crude Oil: Oil Trading Higher, Ahead Of Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 1.05% against the USD and closed at USD69.59 per barrel after Saudi Arabia’s OPEC Governor, Adeeb Al-Aama stated that the kingdom’s exports are likely to fall by around 100,000 bls per day in August and inventories might reduce in the third quarter.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 69.70, with oil trading 0.16% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 68.28, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 66.85. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 70.65, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 71.59.
Crude oil is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8913; (P) 0.8935; (R1) 0.8967; More...
EUR/GBP's rally extends to as high as 0.8954 so far and is finally showing some solid upside momentum. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 0.8967 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8620 at 0.8963). Decisive break should confirm completion of whole decline from 0.9305. EUR/GBP should then target 61.8% retracement at 0.9043 next. On the downside, 0.8890 resistance turned support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish even in case of retreat.
In the bigger picture, EUR/GBP is staying in long term range pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). The corrective structure of the fall from 0.9305 to 0.8620 is raising the chance that rise from 0.8312 to 0.9305 is an impulsive move. But we're not too confident on it yet. In any case, wed stay cautious on strong resistance from 0.9304/5 to limit upside in case of further rally. Meanwhile, if there is another medium term decline, strong support will likely be seen from 0.8303 to contain downside.
