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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 0.88% against the USD and closed at USD15.97 per ounce, tracking gains in gold prices.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 15.99, with silver trading 0.16% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 15.87, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 15.74. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 16.07, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 16.15.

The white metal is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil declined 0.59% against the USD and closed at USD70.21 per barrel.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 70.29, with oil trading 0.11% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 69.27, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 68.24. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 71.27, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 72.26.

Crude oil is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3131; (P) 1.3175; (R1) 1.3200; More...

USD/CAD retreated after hitting 1.3216 and intraday bias is turned neutral again. We're holding on to the view that corrective pull back from 1.3385 has completed at 1.3063 already. Above 1.3216 will bring retest of 1.3385 first. Break will resume larger rally to 1.3685 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 1.3067 resistance turned support will bring deeper fall to channel support (now at 1.2832).

In the bigger picture, as long as channel support (now at 1.2838) holds, we'll holding to the bullish view. That is, fall from 1.4689 (2015 high) has completed at 1.2061, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen for 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3685 and above. However, sustained break of the channel support will argue that rise from 1.2061 has completed and will bring deeper fall to 1.2526 support to confirm.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7372; (P) 0.7396; (R1) 0.7432; More...

AUD/USD recovers after hitting 0.7359 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Corrective pattern from 0.7309 could extend with another rise through 0.7483 resistance. But even in that case, upside should be limited below 0.7676 resistance to bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside, decisive break of 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326) will extend the larger fall from 0.8135 to 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move that should be completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.7676 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1648; (P) 1.1672 (R1) 1.1696; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for retesting 1.1507 low. Decisive break there will resume larger fall from 1.2555. In that case, EUR/USD should drop through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. On the upside, in case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 1.1851 resistance to bring reversal.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won't consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3175; (P) 1.3209; (R1) 1.3239; More...

GBP/USD's fall from 1.3362 continues today and current development should confirm completion of corrective rebound from 1.3048. Intraday bias is now on the downside for retesting 1.3048 low first. Firm break there will resume larger fall from 1.4376 for 1.2874 fibonacci level next. On the upside, above 1.3300 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and bring another recovery. But we'd expect strong resistance from 1.3471 to limit upside to finish the corrective rebound.

In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4179). Fall from 1.4376 should extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 next. We'll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. On the upside, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.3048 at 1.3555 is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.09; (P) 112.36; (R1) 112.80; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally from 104.62 should target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming medium term reversal. On the downside, below 112.16 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 111.13 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we're favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Break of 111.39 resistance now affirms this view. Firm break of 114.73 will confirm and send USD/JPY through 118.65 towards 125.85 key resistance (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 109.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9967; (P) 0.9997; (R1) 1.0055; More...

USD/CHF rally accelerated to as high as 1.0033 so far intraday bias remains on the upside. Decisive break of 1.0056 high will resume whole up trend from 0.9186. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.9186 to 1.0056 from 0.9787 at 1.0325, which is close to 1.0342 key resistance. On the downside, though, break of 0.9961 will dampen this bullish case and bring more sideway trading below 1.0056 first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 is seen as a leg inside the long term range pattern. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds. Above 1.0056 will target 1.0342 (2016 high). In that case, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. However, sustained break of 0.9724 will dampen this bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9518.

The markets are rather calm today as supported by relatively positive investor sentiments. NASDAQ surged to new record high at 7825.67 before having a strong close at 7823.92, up 1.39%. DOW ended up 0.91% at 24924.89 while S&P 500 rose 0.87% to 2798.29. In Asia, Nikkei is having a strong rally and is up 2.0% at the time of writing. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.58% while Singapore Strait Times is up 0.26%. China Shanghai SSE lags behind though and is down -0.12%. The SSE is finding it a bit difficult to breakthrough 2848.37 near term resistance. In other markets, Gold is lifted above 1240 but struggle to regain 1250 handle. WTI crude oil spiked lower to 69.23 briefly overnight but regained 70, which is the level to defend for now.

In the currency markets, Dollar is regaining some upside momentum and stays as the strongest for the week. With the help of risk appetite, Australian Dollar is trading as the second strongest for the week. The development limits downside of AUD/USD despite a decline attempt this week. Swiss Franc recovers mildly after yesterday's selloff but stays the second weakest, next to Yen. Sterling is under some pressure today as Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit seems not too welcomed by the markets.

Technically, 1.0056 in USD/CHF is now a focus for today after yesterday's break out. Firm break of this resistance will resume this year's up trend from 0.9186 low. As Aussie is lifted by rebound in stocks while Euro stays soft, EUR/AUD could have 1.5696 minor support in sight. And break will be a sign of near term reversal.

Fed Powell: Wage should reflect inflation plus productivity

Jerome Powell had his first ever broadcast interview as Fed chair with the Marketplace. On wages, he acknowledged that annual wage growth has moved up from "low twos" five years ago, to close to three" now. And there's been "very gradual move up". He noted that wages should "reflect inflation plus productivity". A "big part" of the slow wage growth is "certainly that inflation has been low and productivity has been low". Yet, he didn't have the answer to the question on why employers are not paying higher wages while the labor markets appear to be very tight.

Though, he also noted that "the economy's in a really good shape" with unemployment at 4%, the lowest in 20 years. And, people are "coming back into the labor force or not leaving it" in the past five years. Fed's target of PCE, which is "a little bit lower than the CPI" has been below 2% for some time. But it finally hit the 2% core PCE level last month.

Regarding trade policy, Powell noted Trump's administration "said" it's trying to lower tariffs. And, "if it works out that way, then that'll be a good thing for our economy." However, "if it works our other ways" and there will be high tariffs on a lot of products for a sustained period of tie, "that could be a negative for our economy". But it's "hard to sit here today and say which way that's going".

But Powell also emphasized that when Fed doesn't make the policy, "we don't praise it, we don't criticize it". And, "part of the independence that we have is to stick to our lane, stick to our knitting, so really wouldn't want to comment on fiscal policy really, or trade policy."

Philadelphia Fed Harker: No compelling reason for a fourth hike but he's open

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said there is "no compelling reason right now" for having a total of four rate hikes this year, "unless we see inflation start to accelerate rapidly. But he is "open" to that. He added that "if we see inflation starting to go past 2.5%, we have to act." But "absent that" he believed there are "lots of good reasons to hold off".

In particular, he pointed out that further rate hike could push 2-year treasury yields above that of 10-year debt. And, he warned that "if there is a risk of inverting the yield curve then we should try to avoid that."

Trump said May's Brexit plan would probably end a major trade relationship with US

Trump blasted UK Prime Minister Theresa May's "business-friendly" Brexit plan, which was formally published yesterday, in The Sun newspaper interview. That came just hours ahead of their dinner at the Blenheim Palace. He criticized that "if they do a deal like that, we would be dealing with the European Union instead of dealing with the UK, so it will probably kill the deal." And he warned that the "soft" approach of May would "definitely affect trade with the United States, unfortunately in a negative way". And, "if they do that I would say that that would probably end a major trade relationship with the United States."

Trump also disclosed that he tried to interfere with the relationship between UK and EU. "I would have done it much differently," Trump told The Sun. "I actually told Theresa May how to do it but she didn't agree, she didn't listen to me. . . . I think what is going on is very unfortunate."

New Zealand BusinessNZ PMI dropped to 52.8 and production dipped again

New Zealand BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index dropped to 52.8 in June, down from 54.4. BusinessNZ's executive director for manufacturing Catherine Beard said that the slow-down in expansion was mainly due to ongoing drops in a key sub-index. She pointed out that "production (51.8) experienced another decrease in expansion levels for June, which meant it was down to its lowest point since January 2017." Nonetheless, "on a positive note, the other key sub-index of New Orders (57.1) remained in healthy territory, which at least should feed through to production levels in the coming months."

China overall trade surplus shrank -24.5% in first half, surplus with US rose 13.9%

In USD term, China trade surplus widened to USD 41.6B in June, up from May's USD 24.9B and beat expectation of USD 27.2B. Exports jumped 11.3% yoy to USD 216.7B while import rose 14.1% to USD 175.1B.

In CNY term, trade surplus widened to CNY 261.9B, up from May's CNY 156.5B and beat expectation of CNY 187.0B. Exports rose 3.1% yoy to CNY 1377.7B while imports rose 6.0% yoy to CNY 1115.8B

From January to June:

Total trade rose 16% to USD 2205.8B. Exports rose 12.8% to USD 1172.7B. Imports rose 19.9% to USD 1033.1B. Trade surplus dropped -24.5% to USD 139.6B.

Total trade with EU rose 13.0% to USD 322.6B. Export to EU rose 11.7% to USD 191.8B. Imports from EU rose 15.0% to USD 130.8B. Trade surplus with EU grew 3.8% to USD 61.0B

Total trade with US rose 13.1% to USD 301B. Export to US rose 13.6% to USD 217.8B. Imports from US rose 11.8% to USD 84.0B. Trade surplus with US rose 13.9% to USD 133.8B.

Total trade with Australia rose 11..5% to USD 74.1B. Export to Australia rose 17.3% to USD 21.7B. Import from Australia rose 9.3% to USD 52.4B. Trade deficit with Australia rose 3.7% to USD -30.7B.

Looking ahead

The economic calendar is rather light today. Swiss PPI, US import price index and U of Michigan consumer sentiment will be featured.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9967; (P) 0.9997; (R1) 1.0055; More...

USD/CHF rally accelerated to as high as 1.0033 so far intraday bias remains on the upside. Decisive break of 1.0056 high will resume whole up trend from 0.9186. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 0.9186 to 1.0056 from 0.9787 at 1.0325, which is close to 1.0342 key resistance. On the downside, though, break of 0.9961 will dampen this bullish case and bring more sideway trading below 1.0056 first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9186 is seen as a leg inside the long term range pattern. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds. Above 1.0056 will target 1.0342 (2016 high). In that case, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. However, sustained break of 0.9724 will dampen this bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9518.

Economic Indicators Update

In USD term, China trade surplus widened to USD 41.6B in June, up from May's USD 24.9B and beat expectation of USD 27.2B. Exports jumped 11.3% yoy to USD 216.7B while import rose 14.1% to USD 175.1B.

In CNY term, trade surplus widened to CNY 261.9B, up from May's CNY 156.5B and beat expectation of CNY 187.0B. Exports rose 3.1% yoy to CNY 1377.7B while imports rose 6.0% yoy to CNY 1115.8B

From January to June:

Total trade rose 16% to USD 2205.8B. Exports rose 12.8% to USD 1172.7B. Imports rose 19.9% to USD 1033.1B. Trade surplus dropped -24.5% to USD 139.6B.

Total trade with EU rose 13.0% to USD 322.6B. Export to EU rose 11.7% to USD 191.8B. Imports from EU rose 15.0% to USD 130.8B. Trade surplus with EU grew 3.8% to USD 61.0B

Total trade with US rose 13.1% to USD 301B. Export to US rose 13.6% to USD 217.8B. Imports from US rose 11.8% to USD 84.0B. Trade surplus with US rose 13.9% to USD 133.8B.

Total trade with Australia rose 11..5% to USD 74.1B. Export to Australia rose 17.3% to USD 21.7B. Import from Australia rose 9.3% to USD 52.4B. Trade deficit with Australia rose 3.7% to USD -30.7B.