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The USD has weakened against the majors after the DXY rejected the 95.50 level in yesterday's trading creating a technical double top and is now trading down at 94.75 as US GDP disappointed coming 0.2% lower than expected. USDJPY is the only pair countering this trend as it trades higher around 110.680.

The EU Summit produced a deal after Italy had initially blocked the move. But an agreement was reached and the EUR is sharply higher, with EURUSD up to 1.16600 from 1.15700. The risk on attitude spread to Equities with the DAX pointing to a higher open. The sentiment was helped by China who announced that they will allow more foreign investment which will ease trade tensions somewhat.

The Eurozone Business Climate data was released, coming in with a reading of 1.39 against an expectation for 1.40 from a previous reading of 1.45 which was revised down to 1.44. This shows a contraction in the metric pointing to a downswing in activity and deterioration in the business climate. The weaker economic data and trade tensions, along with Brexit, have dampened the business climate in the Eurozone. EURUSD moved higher from 1.15539 to 1.15975 after the data release.

German Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Jun) were 2.1% against an expected 2.1% from a prior reading of 2.2%. This data was in line with the expected number but slipped under the previous reading. The metric is maintaining its gains after it performed well with its rise from the May reading of 1.4%. EURGBP moved higher from 0.88443 to 0.88702 following this data release.

US Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q1) data was out, with the headline number of 2.0% against an expected 2.2% from a previous 2.2%. This data missed its forecast and is the lowest reading in 4 months. Also at this time Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) (Q1) was released coming in at 2.3% against an expected 2.3% from a prior 2.3% reading from Q4. Personal Consumption Expenditure Prices (QoQ) (Q1) were 2.5% against an expected 2.6% from a previous 2.6%.

Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 22) were 227K against an expected 220K from 218K previously. Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun 15) were 1.705M against an expected 1.725M from a prior 1.723M which was revised up to 1.726M. USDJPY fell in its initial reaction to the data from 110.222 to 110.056 before recovering and reaching a high of 110.419.

EURUSD is up 0.64% overnight, trading around 1.16409.

USDJPY is up 0.17% in the early session, trading at around 110.675

GBPUSD is up 0.29% this morning trading around 1.31149

Gold is up 0.23% in early morning trading at around $1,250.90

WTI is up 0.07% this morning, trading around $72.49

All Day, The European Council will be meeting today to discuss a range of issues. EUR pairs can move in reaction to this event.

At 08:00 GMT, German Unemployment Change (Jun) is expected to be -8K against the previous -11K. Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jun) is expected to be 5.2% against the previous 5.2%. This number is expected to slip further after falling last month. The data is showing that more labour market participants are working with the unemployment rate at a ten year low. EUR traders will be closely following this data release.

At 08:30 GMT, UK Gross Domestic Product (Q1) will be out with an expected headline number of 0.1% (QoQ) and 1.2% (YoY) from a reading of 0.1% (QoQ) and 1.2% (YoY) previously. Mortgage Approvals (May) are expected to weaken at 62.200K from a previous 62.455K. The consensus is for a reading generally in line with expectations after the previous release was down as the economic output slows. The data has remained positive since 2012, so any deviation can spark a turn in market sentiment, especially one that gives a reading below zero. GBP pair may see an impact from this data.

At 09:00 GMT, Eurozone Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Jun) is expected to be 1.0% against the previous 1.0%. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun) is expected to be 2.0% against the previous 1.9%. The recovery in the Euro area is still strong and this data exceeded expectations for the last reading, giving a new data high for 2018. If the data meets expectations today it will match the 2017 high which was the highest reading since 2013. The ECB will be taking note of this release. EUR crosses can be impacted by this data release.

At 12:30 GMT, US Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (May) is expected to be 0.2% (MoM) and 2.2% (YoY) from 0.2% (MoM) and 2.0% (YoY) previously. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (May) is expected to be 0.1% (MoM) and 1.9% (YoY) from 0.2% (MoM) and 1.8% (YoY) previously. Personal Income (MoM) (May) is expected at 0.4% from 0.3% previously. Personal Spending (May) is expected at 0.4% from 0.6% previously. This data is expected to come in largely as expected today. USD crosses may be heavily traded as a result of these data points.

At 12:30 GMT, Canadian Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (Apr) is expected to be 0.0% from 0.3% prior. This data is expected to show that growth has flat lined and is turning lower from the previous month’s high. CAD crosses can see spikes in volatility as a result.

At 14:45 GMT US Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Mar) is expected to be 60.0 against a prior read of 62.7. The consensus is for a slip in the index since the last release which had rebounded higher from 57.6. USD pairs may be moved by this data.

At 17:00 GMT, Baker Hughes US Rig Count numbers will be released. The prior number last Friday showed that there were 862 Oil rigs in operation up from 863 the previous week. With Oil down from its high price levels in recent times, there was bigger than expected draw in inventories on Wednesday, which put a bid under price.

Pivot (invalidation): 0.7335

Our preference Long positions above 0.7335 with targets at 0.7400 & 0.7420 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 0.7335 look for further downside with 0.7320 & 0.7300 as targets.

Comment The RSI calls for a new upleg.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.3275

Our preference Short positions below 1.3275 with targets at 1.3200 & 1.3165 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1.3275 look for further upside with 1.3300 & 1.3325 as targets.

Comment The RSI lacks upward momentum.

Pivot (invalidation): 0.9985

Our preference Short positions below 0.9985 with targets at 0.9920 & 0.9895 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 0.9985 look for further upside with 1.0000 & 1.0020 as targets.

Comment The RSI calls for a new downleg.

Pivot (invalidation): 110.35

Our preference Long positions above 110.35 with targets at 111.00 & 111.25 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 110.35 look for further downside with 110.00 & 109.65 as targets.

Comment The RSI calls for a new upleg.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.3065

Our preference Long positions above 1.3065 with targets at 1.3150 & 1.3190 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.3065 look for further downside with 1.3030 & 1.3000 as targets.

Comment The RSI calls for a new upleg.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.1590

Our preference Long positions above 1.1590 with targets at 1.1670 & 1.1695 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.1590 look for further downside with 1.1550 & 1.1525 as targets.

Comment The RSI calls for a rebound.

Pivot (invalidation): 72.20

Our preference Long positions above 72.20 with targets at 74.05 & 74.62 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 72.20 look for further downside with 71.20 & 70.00 as targets.

Comment The RSI lacks downward momentum.

Pivot (invalidation): 16.1200

Our preference Short positions below 16.1200 with targets at 15.9000 & 15.8500 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 16.1200 look for further upside with 16.1900 & 16.2400 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed and calls for caution.