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French PMI manufacturing dropped to 53.1 in June, down from 54.4 and missed expecttation of 54.0. But PMI services rose to 56.4, up from 54.3 and beat expectation of 54.3. PMI composite rose to 55.6, up from 54.2, and hit a 2 month high.

Commenting on the Flash PMI data, Paul Smith, Economics Director at IHS Markit said:

"France's economy showed noticeably divergent trends at the end of the second quarter, with the manufacturing and service sectors heading in markedly different growth directions.

"Whilst the services economy strengthened on the back of increased market activity, manufacturers faced a number of headwinds including a general loss of external demand momentum, ongoing vendor delivery delays and rising price pressures, especially for metals (in part linked to higher tariffs).

"Although the surveys suggest that underlying economic growth is continuing at a decent clip, on balance the latest data support the current IHS call for a 0.3% rise in GDP for Q2 as a whole."

Full release here.

The British pound has moved sharply higher against the US dollar, following the Bank of England rate decision, where MPC voting member Andy Haldane called for an immediate rate hike. The GBPUSD pair is currently trading around the 1.3270 level, after recovering from just above the 1.3100 level on Thursday. GBPUSD buyers will try to move price above the 1.3300 level, to change the medium-term sentiment surrounding sterling.

The GBPUSD pair is strongly bullish while trading above the 1.3215 level, key technical resistance is now located at the 1.3300 and 1.3294 levels.

If the GBPUSD pair moves below the 1.3215 level, key technical support can be found at the 1.3190 and 1.3150 levels.

The euro has recovered above the 1.1600 level against the greenback, after the US dollar index failed to hold onto its strong gains above the 95.00 level on Thursday. The EURUSD pair currently trades around the 1.1615 level, and remains intraday bullish above the key 1.1600 level. Traders now look to the release of key Manufacturing and Services PMI data from the eurozone economy.

The EURUSD pair is bullish while trading above the 1.1600 level, key technical resistance is located at the 1.1644 and 1.1688 levels.

If the EURUSD pair moves below the 1.1600 level, key support is found at the 1.1575 and 1.1554 levels.

A high-stakes meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will dominate headlines on Friday, which means energy traders will be on high alert. A deluge of PMI data will also make the rounds, giving investors the latest on the Eurozone and US economies.

France will kick off the economic calendar at 06:45 GMT with a report on first-quarter GDP. The French economy likely grew 0.2% in the first quarter, based on a median forecast.

The PMI data dump, courtesy of IHS Markit, will begin at 07:00 GMT and continue for the next hour. Investors can expect the latest manufacturing and services figures for France, Germany and the 19-member Eurozone.

The Eurozone Composite index, which tracks manufacturing and services output, is forecast to slide to 53.9 in June from 54.1 the previous month.

Shifting gears to North America, the Canadian government will report on retail sales and consumer inflation at 12:30 GMT. Retail receipts likely froze in April. Meanwhile, consumer inflation is forecast to rise 2.5% annually for May. Both reports are expected to have a direct impact on the performance of the Canadian dollar.

Markit will unveil preliminary US PMI data at 13:45 GMT. The Composite index is anticipated to drop 1.5 points to 55.1 for the month of June. A PMI reading above 50 signals expansion in economic activity.

OPEC is planning to announce a one million barrel-per-day increase in crude output on Friday when it concludes its biannual talks in Vienna. However, Iran is threatening to veto the deal in hopes of keeping current production steady. Global oil prices have been shaky all week in anticipation of the release.

Keeping with energy, Baker Hughes Inc. will report on the US oil-rig count at 17:00 GMT. The weekly report is seen as a proxy for the US shale industry.

EUR/USD

Europe's common currency scooped up gains on Thursday after hitting fresh one-year lows. EUR/USD is now consolidating slightly above 1.1600 after bottoming at 1.1522. In terms of the technical indicators, immediate resistance is located at the weekly high of 1.1644.

GBP/USD

Cable also caught a tailwind higher on Thursday as the dollar weakened across the board. GBP/USD is now trading in the mid-1.3200 region after a brief stint at seven-month lows. The pair is now eyeing immediate resistance at 1.3270. On the flipside, immediate support is likely found at 1.3215.

USD/CAD

The greenback drifted lower against its Canadian counterpart on Thursday after gaining as much as 150 pips since Monday. USD/CAD is consolidating in the low 1.3300 region. The technical indicators may prove secondary on Friday should oil prices react to the OPEC verdict. As a commodity-driven currency, the Canadian dollar is heavily influenced by the price of oil.

Markets have maintained the themes from yesterday overnight with the USD showing weakness on the back of poor Philly Fed data. The US Supreme Court ruled yesterday that US States can require companies selling products through the internet to collect tax from those sales. Amazon, Ebay and Etsy share prices all fell dragging down US Indices and continuing the declines from the European session. The Nasdaq led the declines finishing down -0.88% while US 10 year yields dropped -4.2 Bps.

The Bank of England left their Interest Rate Decision unchanged at 0.5% yesterday with a vote of 6-3-0 against an expected 7-2-0. Haldane, McCafferty and Saunders dissented. BOE Asset Purchase Facility was maintained at £435B, unchanged from £435B previously. All the members agree that the Q1 slowdown was temporary and household spending and sentiment have bounced back strongly. The Bank won’t consider reducing QE until rates reach 1.5%. The reaction in GBP was from Haldane’s vote with GBPUSD up from 1.31333 to 1.32693.

US Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun 8) were 1.723M against an expected 1.730M from 1.697M previously which was revised up to 1.701M. Initial Jobless Claims (June 15) were 218K versus an expected 220K against 218K previously which was revised up to 221K. This data is showing that the number of new claims is stable while continuing claims remains very close to its lows as workers are recruited to jobs.

Philadelphia FED Manufacturing Survey (Jun) was 19.9 against an expected 29.0 from 34.4 previously. This data surprised to the upside last month beating the expected 21.1 but the current reading shows this metric has erased the gains to reach a 10 month low. GBPUSD continued its move higher from 1.32139 to 1.32693 after this data release.

US House Price Index (MoM) (Apr) came in at 0.1% against an expected 0.3% from 0.1% previously which was revised up to 0.2%. This data was expected to increase from last month’s reading after declining from the reading in March of 0.8%, however it failed to do so and matched the previous number instead. A fall under 0.0% would be of concern since the data has remained above that level since 2011. USDJPY moved up to 110.314 before resuming its selloff to 109.845 in the following hours.

EURUSD is up 0.25% overnight, trading around 1.16316.
USDJPY is up 0.02% in the early session, trading at around 109.980
GBPUSD is up 0.25% this morning trading around 1.32695
Gold is up 0.12% in early morning trading at around $1,268.58
WTI is up 0.62% this morning, trading around $66.14

OPEC, JMMC meetings are taking place today in Vienna with agreement on production levels high on the agenda. This can impact on prices in Oil markets.

Eurogroup meeting are also taking place today in Brussels increasing headline risk in the EUR crosses.

At 07:30 GMT, German Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jun) is expected to come in at 56.2 from 56.9 previously. Markit Services PMI (Jun) is expected at 52.1 against 52.1 previously. Markit PMI Composite (Jun) is expected to be 53.4 from 53.4 prior. The data has now confirmed that the December reading was a short term high. For Manufacturing it was the highest since before the financial crisis and for services it was the highest since June 2011. The headline number is expected to weaken again today and this weakness will continue to worry the ECB. EUR traders will be closely following this data release.

At 08:00 GMT, Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jun) is expected to come in at 55.0 from 55.5 previously. Markit Services PMI (Jun) is expected at 53.7 against 53.8 previously. Markit PMI Composite (Jun) is expected to be 53.9 from 54.1 prior. This data is also expected to soften once again from the highs in December. EUR crosses can see a spike in volatility should actual released data differ from the expected consensus.

At 12:30 GMT, Canadian Consumer Price Index (May) is expected to be 0.3% (MoM) and 2.5% (YoY) against 0.3% (MoM) and 2.2% (YoY) previously. Consumer Price Index – Core (MoM) (May) came in at 0.0% previously. BOC Consumer Price Index Core (May) is expected to be 0.2% (MoM) and 1.4% (YoY) against0.1% (MoM) and 1.4% (YoY) previously.

Canadian Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Apr) are expected to be 0.5% against -0.2% previously. Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) are expected to be 0.0% against 0.6% previously. These data points are expected to be mixed this month with some metrics expected to be weaker while others show strength. Retail sales are expected to be flat this month. CAD crosses can be affected by this release especially if the data deviates from expectations.

At 13:45 GMT, US Markit Services PMI (Jun) is expected at 56.4 from 56.8 previously. Markit PMI Composite (Jun) is expected to be 55.1 from 56.6 prior. Manufacturing is expected to maintain its strong improvement since a low in May 2016. USD crosses may be heavily traded as a result of this data.

At 17:00 GMT, Baker Hughes US Rig Count numbers will be released. The prior number last Friday showed that there were 863 Oil rigs in operation up from 862 the previous week. With Oil down from its high price levels in recent times, there was bigger than expected draw in inventories on Wednesday, which put a bid under price. OPEC are meeting today and this will further increase volatility in oil prices.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.73; (P) 145.48; (R1) 146.36; More...

GBP/JPY's rebound from 144.37 continues today and focus is back on 146.46 minor resistance. Firm break will suggests that rebound from 143.18 is still in progress. Intraday bias will be turned to the upside for 148.10 resistance and above. On the downside, below 144.37 will target 143.18 first. Break will resume larger decline from 156.59 and target 139.25/47 cluster support level.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that decline from 156.59 is a corrective move. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen above 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 153.84 should confirm that the correction is completed and target 156.59 and above to resume the medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.04; (P) 127.55; (R1) 128.09; More....

EUR/JPY's strong rebound and breach of 128.50 minor resistance argues that pull back from 130.33 is completed at 126.63. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 130.33 first. Break will resume the rebound from 124.61 and target 133.47 key resistance next. On the downside, though, below 126.63 will turn focus back to 124.61 low.

In the bigger picture, despite rebounding strongly ahead of 124.08 resistance turned support, there was no clear follow through buying. Note again that there is bearish divergence in daily MACD. Firm break of 124.08 will confirm trend reversal. That is, whole rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49 already. In that case, deeper fall should be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 119.90 and below. Nonetheless, decisive break of 133.47 key resistance will likely extend the rise from 109.03 through 137.49 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8727; (P) 0.8763; (R1) 0.8801; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral as range trading continues inside 0.8693/8844. With 0.8693 minor support intact, we'd favor another rise. On the upside, break of 0.8844 will resume the rebound from 0.8620 for 0.8967 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8620 at 0.8963). However, break of 0.8693 will bring deeper fall back to retest 0.8620 low.

In the bigger picture, for now, the decline from 0.9305 is seen as a leg inside the long term consolidation pattern from 0.9304 (2016 high). Such consolidation pattern could extend further. Hence, in case of strong rally, we'd be cautious on strong resistance by 0.9304/5 to limit upside. Meanwhile, in another decline attempt, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5657; (P) 1.5702; (R1) 1.5771; More....

Focus is back on 1.5773 support turned resistance in EUR/AUD, with today's rise. Sustained break of 1.5773 will indicate that whole decline from 1.6189 has completed with three waves down to 1.5271 already. And retest of 1.6189 should be seen next. On the downside, break of 1.5617 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.5425. Break there will confirm completion of rebound from 1.5271 and target this low again.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 1.5773 support turned resistance with the current strong rebound. Firm break there will argue that medium term rise from 1.3624 (2017 low) is not completed yet. Further break of 1.6189 will target 1.6587 key resistance (2015 high). Though, rejection by 1.5773 will revive the case of bearish trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.6189 at 1.4604.