Sample Category Title

Pivot (invalidation): 1284.50

Our preference Short positions below 1284.50 with targets at 1275.00 & 1269.00 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 1284.50 look for further upside with 1290.00 & 1293.50 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed to bearish.

Pivot (invalidation): 0.8755

Our preference Short positions below 0.8755 with targets at 0.8715 & 0.8695 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 0.8755 look for further upside with 0.8780 & 0.8800 as targets.

Comment The RSI lacks upward momentum.

Pivot (invalidation): 0.7480

Our preference Short positions below 0.7480 with targets at 0.7400 & 0.7365 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 0.7480 look for further upside with 0.7525 & 0.7560 as targets.

Comment The RSI lacks upward momentum.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.3150

Our preference Long positions above 1.3150 with targets at 1.3235 & 1.3290 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 1.3150 look for further downside with 1.3110 & 1.3050 as targets.

Comment Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

Pivot (invalidation): 0.9940

Our preference Long positions above 0.9940 with targets at 1.0000 & 1.0030 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below 0.9940 look for further downside with 0.9895 & 0.9865 as targets.

Comment The RSI lacks downward momentum.

Pivot (invalidation): 110.70

Our preference Short positions below 110.70 with targets at 110.10 & 109.90 in extension.

Alternative scenario Above 110.70 look for further upside with 110.90 & 111.10 as targets.

Comment The RSI is mixed to bearish.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.3250

Our preference Long positions above 1.3250 with targets at 1.3300 & 1.3350 in extension.

Alternative scenario Below: 1.3250 look for further downside with 1.3210 & 1.3170 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is mixed to bullish.

Pivot (invalidation): 1.1555

Our preference: Long positions above 1.1555 with targets at 1.1625 & 1.1675 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.1555 look for further downside with 1.1500 & 1.1460 as targets.

Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

It is expected that the latest instalment of concerns over the United States and China entering a potential trade war will encourage global stock markets to come under pressure this week. Some indications of risk aversion are already being seen in the markets, with the Japanese Yen gaining as a result of market uncertainty and a number of different Asian currencies trading lower due to reduced investor appetite.

A number of different emerging market currencies across Asia have begun the new trading week on the back foot from the trade tensions between the United States and China. This includes the Chinese Yuan, with current losses close to 0.6%. The Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysian Ringgit, Philippine Peso and Thai Baht are just a few of the many Asian currencies to have followed the same lead.

Although trade war concerns between the United States and China will likely act as the headline risk for this week, there are a number of different events that investors will need to monitor. This includes the latest OPEC meeting in Vienna, Bank of England (BoE) meeting and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) interest rate decision, as well as the lead up to the Turkish presidential elections on 24 June. There will also be a central banking policy panel featuring ECB President Draghi, Federal Reserve Chair Powell, BoJ Governor Kuroda and RBA Governor Lowe, where any comments on the direction of monetary policy from respective central banks and the impact of the ongoing dispute between the United States and China might have on the global economy could leave a lasting impact on the markets.

This week will also be seen as make-or-break for the British Pound, with the Sterling seen as a leading contender to be the most volatile developed currency. The GBPUSD is currently trading narrowly close to its previous 2018 low as the UK heads into the EU withdrawal bill and BoE interest rate decisions. While it is already considered a foregone conclusion that the BoE policy meeting will conclude with interest rates left unchanged, any concluding comments from voting members that slowing UK economic momentum is causing concern will be seen as further negative news for the Pound.

Another leading contender for volatility this week will be the Turkish Lira. The presidential elections in Turkey on Sunday hold the potential to leave lasting implications on the financial markets, not limited to just the Turkish Lira. President Erdogan winning on Sunday will likely be reacted to negatively by investors; persistent fears that an Erdogan victory will lead to the Turkish President exerting more control over interest rate policy and economic matters in Turkey have already encouraged the Lira to surrender its recovery from historic lows, following the recent increases in interest rates from the Turkish central bank.

Gold prices plummeted more than 1.7% on Friday, reaching a fresh six-month low of 1275.30 after the bounce off the 1303 resistance level. The neutral bias shifted to bearish as the price penetrated the trading range 1289 – 1307.50 to the downside, experiencing further losses. Despite the latest upside pullback, the bearish picture in the short-term is further supported by the technical indicators.

Momentum indicators in the 4-hour chart are holding in the negative threshold. The RSI indicator is flattening near the 30 level after the rebound on the oversold zone, while the MACD oscillator is falling sharply below the zero line.

Further losses should see the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near 1272 of the upleg from 1122 to 1365 coming into view. A drop below this significant level could open the way towards the 1250 support level, taken from the low on December 2017.

In the event of an upside reversal and a jump above the 1282 resistance level, the price could hit the 1289 resistance level. Clearing this key level would lead the way towards the 20- and 40-simple moving averages (SMAs) both near 1295.

Overall, the precious metal has been developing within a downward sloping channel since April 11, indicating that the price remains in bearish mode in the medium term.